I don't know when Manny Machado is going to pick his next team. I don't know when Bryce Harper is going to pick his next team, either. Machado's decision will almost certainly come before Harper's. It's obvious which players are at the top of the free-agent market. But if you review what happened in 2018, one of the most important players on the Atlanta Braves wound up being Anibal Sanchez. One of the most important players on the Milwaukee Brewers wound up being Jhoulys Chacin. (I'll also accept Wade Miley.) One of the most important players on the Los Angeles Dodgers wound up being Max Muncy, for Pete's sake. Value doesn't always come from where you expect, and there are current free agents who will look like massive bargains down the line.
Today, we're identifying the best candidates to be the next Muncy or Miley, Sanchez or Chacin. I picked out the following players who ought to come with considerable upside, even with a modest cost. The recently released Troy Tulowitzki is a given, but there are 11 other names as well, the bulk of them pitchers. Jordan Lyles would have made this list had he not recently signed a small contract with the Pirates. He's the kind of player we're looking for.
With any list like this, the gamble tends to be health. Indeed, many of these players have elevated injury risks, but also good talent when healthy. Staying healthy is still in large part a coin flip, at least from the team perspective. It's not as easy to predict as you would think. With that in mind, let's find some intriguing, affordable free agents. Some are going to end up hurt. That's the way it goes. But some of these players could make major stretch-run contributions. I've listed them in alphabetical order.
Clay Buchholz, right-handed starting pitcher: There's a chance you didn't even notice that Buchholz pitched in the majors in 2018. He did it quietly in Arizona, and, unsurprisingly, his season ended due to an arm injury. But over 16 starts, Buchholz posted an ERA of 2.01. He threw 68 percent of his pitches for strikes; his career rate is 64 percent. The only other time he had thrown close to that many strikes was 2015, when he had a low-3.00s ERA with the Red Sox. Buchholz is 34, but his most recent action was outstanding. If he's able to pitch next season, he has already demonstrated he still has some gas in the tank.
Trevor Cahill, right-handed starting pitcher: Cahill will forever be a candidate for any article like this. Cahill made just 20 starts with Oakland, which was his highest big-league total since 2013. His ERA was pretty good. His FIP was pretty good. His xFIP was also pretty good. There were two separate stints on the disabled list, and, again, that shouldn't surprise you, but Cahill still keeps the majority of batted balls on the ground, and he's coming off a contact rate of 73 percent. Charlie Morton is also coming off a contact rate of 73 percent. Cahill's four-pitch repertoire is hard to hit and hard for hitters to elevate, and that's why he's going to open the season in somebody's rotation. The injuries, though, will keep the terms from getting too expensive. (Editor's note: No sooner was Cahill on Jeff's list than he was signed by the Angels to a one-year, $9 million deal.)
Derek Holland, left-handed starting pitcher: Holland was like another Buchholz, quietly reemerging in the NL West. Holland made 30 starts and 36 appearances with the Giants, and his strikeout rate of 23 percent was the highest of his 10-year career. It's a career in which Holland was once a borderline ace with the Rangers. Holland doesn't have the same history as other pitchers here. He made 26 starts in 2017, so it wasn't lucky that he was able to stay healthy. Rather, Holland improved, even though few people noticed. His fastballs missed more bats than ever, and he made a mid-June switch to setting up on the side of the rubber opposite where he used to set up. The 32-year-old bounced back, and he'll get a major league contract.
Greg Holland, right-handed reliever: Holland was one of the casualties of last offseason's slow and picky free-agent market. He debuted late with the Cardinals, and in his first outing he walked four of five batters. He didn't recover quickly enough, and when the Cardinals dropped him, his ERA was almost 8.00. But then he joined the Nationals, and he registered 25 strikeouts in 21 ⅓ innings. More than a third of all swings against his pitches missed, a rate similar to what Holland did in his prime. Holland showed he's still tough to square up, and there's reason to believe his main problem was not signing until the end of spring training. Let him prepare for a season like normal, and perhaps he will still be able to close.
Nate Karns, right-handed starting pitcher: We haven't seen Karns since 2017, before he needed surgery to relieve thoracic outlet syndrome. Elbow issues kept him sidelined throughout 2018, so it should go without saying there's a real chance Karns won't be able to perform in the season ahead. But he's available and only 31, and Tyson Ross is one guy who just came back from thoracic outlet syndrome to have an effective season. In his last major league action, Karns leaned on his curveball to strike out more than a quarter of the batters he faced. It's a dynamite curve, and if Karns' arm can still spin it, he'll have the ability to make hitters miss.
Shelby Miller, right-handed starting pitcher: Miller had Tommy John surgery early in 2017, and generally speaking, that keeps pitchers out of action for 15 to 16 months. But Miller made only five big-league appearances in 2018, due to continuing elbow discomfort. He did pitch on Sept. 29, and his fastball was 95 mph. Miller's tenure with the Diamondbacks was a huge disappointment, and the team was ready to turn the page, but Miller is just 28 years old as I write this, and he can still throw as hard as he ever did. If an offseason of rest gets his elbow back in shape, his upside potential is immense.
Logan Morrison, first baseman: Just one year ago, Morrison hit the free-agent market as a breakout player. Then he proceeded to slug .368 with the Twins before succumbing to injury. There are two things that I think are somewhat encouraging. For one, Morrison needed surgery on his hip, and perhaps hip discomfort took a toll on his swing. That much wouldn't be hard to imagine. And second, Morrison wasn't as bad in 2018 as his surface numbers would indicate. According to Statcast's "expected" statistics based on actual batted balls, Morrison would be expected to have slugged .462, not .368. That made him one of the unluckier hitters in baseball. If the hip is good to go, Morrison should be able to slug again.
Daniel Murphy, second baseman: Not all of these players are going to have to settle for small commitments. Murphy might get a multiyear deal. But the point is to identify guys who could dramatically outperform their contracts, and I like Murphy as a candidate, for reasons similar to Greg Holland above. It's not good that Murphy needed knee surgery before 2018, but then he didn't appear in the majors until June 12. Through 21 games, his OPS stood at a paltry .491. From that point forward, he OPS'd .870, looking more like the All-Star hitter he had become in 2016. Murphy remains adept at getting the bat to the ball, and his defensive limitations can be mitigated via aggressive shifting. With a healthy offseason ahead, he could hit the ground running in April.
Oliver Perez, left-handed reliever: First, yes, Perez is still pitching, at 37 years old. He has made 50 appearances in each of the past two seasons, and he's coming off a career-high 36 percent strikeout rate. There were 250 relievers who threw at least 30 innings, and Perez ranked fifth in K-BB%, in between Dellin Betances and Aroldis Chapman. Yes, he has his limitations, and yes, he's running low on stamina, but for an old lefty, he's not even a specialist; he just held righties to a .104 average. Perez probably can't be anyone's regular eighth-inning stopper, but for a low price, he could improve any bullpen.
Anibal Sanchez, right-handed starting pitcher: Last offseason, the Braves signed Sanchez to a minor league contract. He won't have to settle for another minor league deal, not after posting a sub-3.00 ERA over 24 starts. But because Sanchez is almost 35, and because he was successful for the first time since 2014, chances are he's not going to sign a massive deal. And so he could be a bargain once again, flourishing while showcasing a new and dependable cutter. According to FanGraphs' pitch values, Sanchez threw baseball's fourth-most-valuable cutter last season, and he also threw the third-most-valuable changeup. He has changed his style of pitching with age, and hitters weren't able to solve him.
Carson Smith, right-handed reliever: After being traded to the Red Sox, Smith missed most of 2016 and 2017 due to Tommy John surgery. He was good to go in 2018, but then he hurt his shoulder throwing his glove out of frustration. As such, the Red Sox saw Smith throw all of 23 ⅔ innings in three years. Obviously, shoulder injuries are problematic, but Smith is just 29, with a career strikeout rate of 31 percent. When he did pitch in 2018, his repertoire didn't appear diminished, and he has held righties to a .280 OBP while holding lefties to a slightly lower OBP of .278. Not bad for a low-slot righty reliever. If Smith can pitch, it's not a leap to suggest he could occupy a significant role.
Troy Tulowitzki, infielder: We end up at one of the greatest shortstops of his era. Tulowitzki is 34 years old now, and he was released by the Blue Jays with almost $40 million remaining on his contract. He was released because he wasn't going to start; he didn't suit up at all in 2018 after having surgery on both of his heels. But because of the way this works, Tulowitzki will be available to sign with anyone for the league minimum, since the Blue Jays will be footing the rest of the bill. And in Tulowitzki's last (mostly) healthy season, in 2016, he was an above-average hitter who played premium-grade shortstop. It's unclear how well he can move now after the surgeries, but Tulowitzki had a long list of health issues before 2016, and at that point he could still play. Don't be too surprised if he reemerges in somebody's infield with another 3.0 WAR season.