The Tampa Bay Rays so rarely dip into the free-agent starter waters that it was a bit surprising Wednesday to see them land one of the best ones on the market in Charlie Morton, who carries some injury risk but could very well help Tampa Bay repeat its 90-win performance from 2018.
As much as the media made of the Rays' opener strategy last year, it was a bit overlooked that they did so as a response to the decimation of their planned rotation by injuries -- and also the fact that it seemed to work, getting the team more value from its existing pitchers. That's not the same as saying the Rays gave up on traditional starters; Chris Archer was used that way while he was still there, and Cy Young winner Blake Snell was a traditional starter all year.
The Rays entered this offseason with Snell as a definite starter, and Jake Faria and Tyler Glasnow as tentative starters, in addition to the guys they used or might use as openers. Brent Honeywell, who had Tommy John surgery, should return this summer, but counting on him for more than a half season is probably optimistic, and he could need time to regain his command and control. They had an acute need for a regular starter, even one who would go just twice through the order.
That seems like an ideal role for Morton, who is very good though possibly a bit fragile now at age 35. He gave the Houston Astros 300 very good innings the past two seasons, plus some great playoff work, but ended the year with a couple of shoulder scares -- likely the reason his new deal includes a cut-rate option for the Rays in case Morton suffers a major injury.
Morton's stuff ticked up in 2016 and was still there after a torn hamstring cost him most of that season, then continued to improve with Houston as his curveball became a real out pitch even against left-handed batters. He's probably a "five-and-dive" guy at this point, good for five innings or twice through the order, and maybe he'll roll into games in the second inning after an opener, but the Rays can look at him as a likely source of 150 above-average innings in whatever role and probably 2.5 to 3 wins of value as a result.
It's worth praising the Rays for going for it despite working with a real revenue disadvantage and playing in a division with two teams (the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees) that are probably better on paper and certainly have more financial resources at their disposal. The Rays could easily say that their chances of making the playoffs ahead of one or both of those teams are slim, meaning it's second wild card or bust, and thus the right thing to do for the franchise would be to tear it down and rebuild. Fans in other markets have accepted that message, even cheering for teams to lose more games and accumulate high draft picks and manipulate service time in pursuit of some indefinite year of contention down the road.
But the Rays are still in win-now mode, massaging their payroll by cutting C.J. Cron (who will make $4.8 million next year with the Minnesota Twins) but turning around and spending the savings on Morton. With even winning teams such as the Cleveland Indians shedding payroll, there's an opportunity for a team with a little cash and some confidence in their evaluations to find value in the market, and the Rays seem to be doing so in pursuit of 95 wins and an unlikely playoff berth.
Morton is coming off the two best seasons of his career, a bargain at $14 million total for Houston, and hit the market entering his age-35 season with mid-rotation promise but questions around his durability and the risk associated with a pitcher his age. He works with a four-seamer, sinker and curveball, and managed to close his platoon gap without adding another pitch, getting a ton of swings and misses on the breaking ball against left-handers. Morton did have two scares near the end of 2018, missing one start with a sore shoulder in late August and leaving a start early in late September when his velocity was down for the same reason, and this marked only the second season of his career in which he qualified for the ERA title, with the previous time coming in 2011. Two years is probably right again, but $14 million per year is a lot more reasonable than $14 million total.