The Washington Nationals had some of the worst catching production in the big leagues last season, with players at that position combining for just a .209 average, 54 runs and 12 homers. Among would-be contenders, Washington might've had the greatest need at the position as this offseason began, and general manager Mike Rizzo moved quickly to fill it, signing catcher Kurt Suzuki to a two-year deal.
The Nationals had been one of the most aggressive bidders for Miami catcher J.T. Realmuto, who might've represented a tremendous upgrade at the position for Washington. But the Nationals reached a standoff with the Marlins in the asking price for Realmuto, after rejecting Miami's request for star outfield prospect Victor Robles, so they moved on. Other teams that have checked in with Miami on Realmuto are convinced that the Marlins will end up keeping the catcher through the winter, because of the extremely high asking price they've placed on the veteran.
The question is: Why would they keep him into the 2019 season?
What's the point of keeping a highly valued veteran who mans a position that places him at heightened risk for injury, considering the Marlins aren't close to contending and Realmuto has indicated, through his agent, that he won't sign a long-term deal with Miami?
Realmuto turns 28 in March, and he needs two more years of service time before he reaches free agency. Coming off a season in which he hit 21 homers and generated a .340 on-base percentage, he is arguably the best overall catcher in baseball. He would've been a great solution for the Nationals, and still theoretically could be for the Dodgers, the Mets and other clubs.
But the Marlins would have to keep bidders in play in order to maximize their leverage in any Realmuto deal, and the Nationals' rapid exit from the trade conversation with Miami -- after all, it's still November, with the winter meetings three weeks away -- is an early sign of the reality that other executives don't view the Marlins' asking price as close to reasonable.
The working theory among other teams is that the Marlins are smarting from last winter's trades of All-Star outfielders Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, which did not net a single prospect currently ranked among the top 100. Lewis Brinson was the centerpiece of the Yelich trade, and last season, Brinson batted .199, with a .240 on-base percentage and 120 strikeouts in 109 games. He turns 25 in May, and there's an open question among rival evaluators if he'll be an effective big leaguer.
If the Marlins are somewhat defensive in their trade posture, more deliberate than they were last winter, then you couldn't blame them. But they cannot let that recent history scare them into a situation in which Realmuto is wearing one of their newly designed uniforms when spring training opens.
Because with catchers, you just never know how long they will last. Just a year ago, Buster Posey was coming off a season of an .861 OPS, his fifth All-Star appearance and a Silver Slugger Award, and now, following hip surgery, the Giants aren't entirely sure that Posey, now 31, will get back to an All-Star level. Just a few years ago, Russell Martin was one of the most coveted free agents in baseball, getting a strong four-year offer from the Cubs before signing a five-year deal with the Blue Jays -- and last season, the 35-year-old Martin hit .194. There's more than 100 years of history that tells us catchers age faster than their peers, just as running backs do in the NFL.
The worst-case scenario for the Marlins is not making an imperfect trade of Realmuto. No, the nightmare Miami should work to avoid this winter is to risk squandering Realmuto's value before his looming free agency draws so near it depresses offers, or before he gets hurt.
The Marlins might regret the Yelich trade, with good reason. But can you imagine how awful they would feel if a foul tip tears up Realmuto's thumb next May or June, in the midst of what they know probably will be a season of 60 to 70 wins?
This would be a complete waste, and why the Marlins should work to make their best possible Realmuto trade this winter, by keeping as many teams as possible fully engaged and pushing for last-best offers for a player who isn't going to be around whenever the organization starts to turn the corner.