Here are five matchups to watch in the American League Championship Series:
The guys who hit in front of Alex Bregman vs. Alex Cora's respect for Bregman
After Alex Cora's year as the bench coach for the Houston Astros, he possesses unique perspective on Bregman -- on Bregman's staggering confidence, on the short and quick swing that plays so well against the great pitching of October, on Bregman's assumption that he will answer every challenge. With that understanding of Bregman, there will probably be times in this series when Cora will wave four fingers to his catcher and send Bregman to first base intentionally rather than risk one of his pitchers working to him in a big spot.
But Cora will be boxed in with his choices if the hitters in front of Bregman consistently get on and fill the open bases that Cora needs to deal with the Astros' third baseman. This season, Bregman blasted 27 extra-base hits in 166 plate appearances with runners in scoring position; his RISP slash line is .388/.488/.731. Some stats analysts will argue that there is a high degree of luck for hitters who have success with runners on base, but in Bregman's case, Cora knows better.
Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa vs. what ails them
Last October, Correa had five homers among 10 extra-base hits, and batted .333 in the ALCS. But he has been battling a back problem over the past couple of months, and has sometimes been pained when he swings and misses. In the division series, he went 1-for-10 with a home run and three walks, and was moved to seventh in the Houston lineup. Correa is 24 and this is the first time he's trying to play through a major injury. On the podcast Friday, Astros radio analyst Steve Sparks explained that Correa has altered his approach and has been working to take the ball to right field.
Similarly, Altuve is playing with a nagging injury, a right knee issue that might need a surgical cleanup after the season. He went 4-for-14 against Cleveland in the division series, but there are moments when he looks affected by the problem.
Craig Kimbrel vs. the next big moment
After Kimbrel and the Red Sox survived the near disaster in the bottom of the ninth inning in Yankee Stadium on Tuesday night, Kimbrel grinned below champagne-splattered goggles and talked about how he had focused on making each pitch. He got through it, and the Red Sox got through it.
Inevitably, however, there will be another big moment, and that's when we'll know if Kimbrel buried that inning in the past -- or if there is some carryover, and he again struggles to find the strike zone. Baseball's postseason has a long history of relievers who've struggled in a big spot and never really recovered, from Calvin Schiraldi to Mark Wohlers. Kimbrel has 333 regular-season saves in his career and is well-practiced in the habit of working past difficult outings, but these are the playoffs -- this is different.
David Price vs. his October ghosts and the Astros (and not necessarily in that order)
Price's postseason struggles are well-documented, with 10 starts, no wins and an overall ERA of 5.28. He lasted just five outs against the Yankees in the division series before Cora rushed out of the dugout to pull him. Price answered questions afterward and acknowledged his playoff history, and said again that he's confident that he'll work through this.
But the Astros, like the Yankees, are not a great matchup for him, because of a lineup filled with right-handed mashers, from Bregman to George Springer to Altuve and Correa. And it might be fair to wonder how Price feels, given his relative inactivity. Incredibly, Price has pitched just three times in the past 31 days, for a total of 12 innings, and in those innings, he has allowed 10 runs.
If Price struggles again early, Cora may be quick to his bullpen, again -- and with travel scheduled the day after Price's start, the manager can dig deep into his relief corps knowing that they'll have time to rest. But in a seven-game series, the Red Sox will need at least some effective production out of Price.
The Astros' monster pitching staff vs. Boston's monster offense
The theoretical advantage for the Red Sox in the postseason is their run production, in how they can blast their way past all other deficiencies. But in this series, they'll be facing the most complete pitching staff in the big leagues.
Houston's rotation ERA: 3.16 -- the best in the majors. This was the first time since 2012 that an AL team led the majors in this statistic (the Rays led that year).
Houston's bullpen ERA: 3.03 -- the best in the majors. Houston's bullpen performance was dramatically augmented by the additions of Ryan Pressly, who allowed just two earned runs in his final 23⅓ innings in the regular season, with three walks and 32 strikeouts, and closer Roberto Osuna, who has allowed just one homer and five runs in 25 innings.
During the regular season, Houston opponents batted just .224 with runners in scoring position, with a .304 on-base percentage.
You've heard the cliché about how good hitting fares against good pitching -- and the Astros will field one of the best postseason staffs we've seen in recent generations.