BOSTON -- The numbers are indisputable, and the numbers are driving the rapidly careening baseball trends toward faster and bigger. It makes sense that pitchers want to throw harder and are training their bodies year-round to do that. The numbers show that the average velocity on fastballs across the sport is the highest ever, with a dramatic rise in the past decade, and that the spin rates on breaking balls have never been better, the pitchers having a greater understanding of how their bodies work, with an attempt at peak effort on every pitch.
It makes sense that front offices are obsessed with efficiency, in the best way to get each out of the 27 in every game -- the best and most efficient way to get the 10th out, the 19th out, etc. And the numbers show, unquestionably, that a fresher pitcher who can throw harder or spin a curveball more sharply has a better chance of registering a given out than a compromised pitcher who isn't throwing as hard, or spinning the ball as well. All of that is measured now, so that the quality of a breaking ball is quantified, along with the velocity of the fastballs.
It makes sense on a given day that more options are better for a manager, and that teams are developing relievers the way the Detroit auto industry once churned out Novas and Probes from the assembly lines.
It makes sense that besieged hitters are training themselves to respond to the high velocity, honing their mechanics with personal coaches, to improve the chances of doing as much damage as possible on each swing.
The numbers are the numbers. And privately, many folks in the industry are worried about how the bigger-better-faster numbers are affecting the pitchers and the product of baseball.
"But I don't know how we get away from it," said one executive recently. "I really don't."
Which means more pitcher breakdowns, more disabled list assignments, more relievers, more strikeouts, more three-true-result inaction of strikeouts, walks or home runs. The numbers that reflect the collateral damage are the numbers. And they are indisputable.
Shohei Ohtani threw three of the four hardest pitches produced by any starter this season, and Wednesday, the Angels announced that his existing UCL tear has worsened and Tommy John surgery has been recommended. Two days later, Michael Kopech of the White Sox -- regarded as one of the world's best pitching prospects, and the hardest-throwing prospect -- was ruled out for the rest of 2018 and all of 2019; he needs reconstructive elbow surgery. These injuries add more weight to a widespread consensus within baseball that the explosion of arm ailments is directly related to the record-setting velocity.
Pitchers are focused on throwing harder, at younger ages, mostly through the benefits of leg and core workouts, and weighted balls. As the power of a pitcher's body grows, so too does the stress on the ligaments and tendons, the hinges that hold everything together -- and as doctors explain, ligaments and tendons cannot be strengthened. It's like adding weight to bridges already strained, and pitchers' arms are collapsing.
Disabled lists around baseball are overflowing with pitchers, with the volume goosed somewhat by the adoption, going into the 2017 season, of the 10-day disabled list.
The average fastball velocity was 89.4 mph in 2003 and has climbed steadily.
2014: 91.8 mph
2015: 92.2 mph
2016: 92.4 mph
2017: 92.9 mph
2018: 92.8 mph
A significant spike in velocity; an explosion in the number of pitchers breaking down. The numbers are the numbers.
"The unintended consequences of bigger-faster-stronger," observed one evaluator.
"I know how you could keep pitchers healthy," he added. "You build a staff with a bunch of guys who throw 88 mph. And I'd bet there would be fights in the other dugout, to get to the bat rack to hit against those guys. ... You'd have no chance [competitively to win] with a staff like that."
As pitchers get stronger, too little attention is paid to the impact of max-effort deliveries that aren't always safe or efficient, with signs for breakdown, said one longtime coach. Rather, progress is often measured only by velocity and spin rate, and by a pitcher's chances for helping immediately, in that moment. Some analysts, the coach said, "don't give a damn about deliveries. They only care about the numbers that they produce, and what they look like."
Meanwhile, front offices and their analysts and some coaches map out the most efficient and effective paths to journey through each game. When someone like Justin Verlander pitches, that can mean the pitcher remains on the mound three times through the order. On most days, it means the manager looks to yank the starter before he's exposed to the opponents a third time through the lineup. For the Rays and other teams on some days, that means changing pitchers repeatedly. Faster, better. The numbers are the numbers: Since the Rays implemented their system of an opener followed by waves of relievers, their staff ERA has been among the best in baseball.
More relievers are used than ever before, as these numbers dug out by ESPN's Sarah Langs show.
Relievers per game in MLB:
1968: 2.9
1978: 2.8
1988: 3.5
1998: 4.9
2008: 5.8
2014: 6.0
2015: 6.2
2016: 6.3
2017: 6.4
2018: 6.5
One NL evaluator speculated that a root cause for the rash of blister problems in recent years is that pitchers have increasingly focused on going all out on every pitch.
"They want every curveball to be a bastard curveball," he said, using the industry lingo for the most vicious breaking ball.
"They are going for maximum spin rate on every pitch," another evaluator said. "I don't think we're far from the time you're going to see a bunch of three-inning pitchers."
At a time when Major League Baseball has been working to foster the brands of individual players, through the undertaking of events like personalized Players Weekend and the increased use of social media, the army of players is growing dramatically.
Three weeks remain in this season, but already eight of the 30 teams have set franchise records for relievers used, and the White Sox matched an existing team record. Union members should be deeply concerned about all of this, because the starting pitchers -- historically, the salary drivers in the sport -- are losing pre-eminence, and the tide of relievers is rising. Within two or three years, agents point out, the multitude of relievers accruing service time now will reach free agency, creating more supply and, naturally, less demand.
Some of the evaluators who feed the trends with their decisions are also growing more dubious about the resulting product -- so many more strikeouts and walks, so many relievers, so much more turnover -- and privately wonder if some fans will continue to consume it. One executive noted the enhanced daily challenge of building a roster for that day's game, and how he enjoyed the strategy. But the resulting games ... "A tough watch, some days," he added.
Said another official: "It's not what attracted me to the game as a kid, when you looked for the matchups of the starting pitchers. But I don't know how you get off the track we're on."
That probably could happen only with a dramatic rule change, a limit on pitchers. Short of that, however, the trends are likely to continue. The numbers are the numbers. They are indisputable. And they're a problem.
News from around the major leagues
• The Giants of 2010-2014 won three World Series, a modern-day version of a dynasty that will always be celebrated by the San Francisco fan base. But the parallels between the Giants and the 2006-2012 Phillies are striking.
The Phillies won the World Series in 2008 and faced the Yankees in 2009, and as the front office worked to extend the window of success for that group of players that included Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Cole Hamels and Ryan Howard, it made a number of win-now moves, including the re-signing of Howard to a five-year, $125 million extension. With the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, it's apparent the Phillies' leadership clung to that core of players for too long -- and the same dynamic has been at play with the Giants.
San Francisco won only 64 games in a terrible 2017 season, and rather than begin the difficult process of turning over the roster in earnest, the Giants tried to augment the core group with more veterans -- trading for Andrew McCutchen, for the last season before he reached free agency, and for Evan Longoria, who carried with him $60 million in salary obligation. The Giants are on a pace to win 74 games, and some roster issues have worsened -- Buster Posey just had hip surgery, Longoria has a .709 OPS and the team continues to lack depth in pitching.
Madison Bumgarner is 29 years old and in the prime of his career, and while the Giants chased off all suitors interested in the lefty before the July 31 trade deadline, they should draw on the Phillies' experience with Hamels and revisit the idea of dealing him this winter. Early in 2012 -- as the Phillies' window for success was just about over -- Hamels signed a six-year, $144 million deal, and less than halfway through the contract, the franchise shifted into a complete rebuild and traded Hamels to the Rangers while eating some of his salary.
Bumgarner is making $12 million this year and the Giants hold a $12 million option for next year. If they aren't going to trade him, as they informed other teams a couple of months ago, then they need to work out an extension, most likely this winter. But for a team that may face the same period of struggles the Phillies had after 2012, carrying Bumgarner through his decline might make less sense than taking advantage of his current trade value and using the acquired prospects to accelerate the forthcoming rebuild.
• Boston's Rick Porcello starts against Houston's Dallas Keuchel on Sunday Night Baseball in a matchup of two of the fastest-working pitchers in baseball -- Porcello averages 22.6 seconds between deliveries, Keuchel 22.7 seconds. Some of Porcello's reasoning for doing this is similar to why a football team runs a no-huddle offense -- to rush the opponent, to give it less time to process the available information. Porcello noted that hitters will watch video on a dugout iPad just before walking to the plate, armed with a distinct plan for that moment. And from Porcello's perspective, the less time they have to utilize all of that, the better.
• Catcher Sandy Leon has been behind the plate for all of Porcello's starts this season, and Porcello has been deeply impressed by Leon's preparation and understanding, and his ability to keep track of all of the sets of signs for Boston's pitchers. "And if a mistake is made," Porcello said, "it is mine." Leon is calm, rarely showing emotion, but if he's angry about the pitcher's inability to execute a pitch, Porcello said with a chuckle, he'll show his displeasure by firing the ball back to the mound "at 97 mph."
• Marwin Gonzalez clubbed the most important home run in the Astros' championship run in 2017, with two outs and nobody on base in the ninth inning of Game 2 of the World Series, tying the score against Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen. The Astros went on to win, evening the World Series. Gonzalez used a bat belonging to teammate Alex Bregman to hit that homer, and after the game was over, Jose Altuve asked him about the location of the bat. Gonzalez didn't know; he had put it back into the rack, and when the Astros' staffers packed after that game for the journey to Houston, that bat was thrown into the mass of bats -- never to be located again, as Gonzalez reports.
And today will be better than yesterday.