The baseball season is long, and it also goes by pretty fast. It's hard to believe, but it has been nearly seven months since pitchers and catchers reported back in February. Everything that has happened since has pointed us toward what is shaping up as a great final month of the regular season.
For today's Stock Watch, let's step back and make a holistic appraisal of what has transpired since those quiet Cactus and Grapefruit days. We've divided the teams into two groups: contenders and also-rans. We're calling any team that still has at least a 1 percent chance at the postseason in my latest run of simulations a contender, while acknowledging that for teams such as the Tampa Bay Rays and Washington Nationals, that might not be an apt description. That's 16 teams; the other 14 clubs comprise the also-ran class.
Alongside each team's current win forecast and percentage shot at the playoffs, we're listing how much those measurements have shifted since the last time we ran the simulations back in spring training. Within each class (contenders and also-rans), teams are ordered by their change in win forecast.
Along with the metrics, we're going to weigh in on just what each team has to play for during the last month of regular-season play in 2018.
CONTENDERS
Oakland Athletics
Current win forecast: 96.4 (change from spring: +20.2)
Current playoff probability: 92.2 percent (up 75.2 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 2.2 percent
The A's don't have the benefit of anymore head-to-head encounters with the first-place Astros, so Oakland's run at the AL West title will depend on them beating other teams and getting help elsewhere. It's a scenario any A's fan would have embraced back in spring training. While Bob Melvin is the likely favorite for AL Manager of the Year, you don't hear us talk much about Oakland players in the postseason conversation. I'm not quite ready to back Blake Treinen for the Cy Young, but it could happen. Matt Chapman isn't in the middle of the MVP conversation, but he's in the ring circling it. The top rookie has been Lou Trivino, and how many fans outside of the Bay Area know about him? Yet all of these people and more are worth watching on what is a very entertaining team. Chapman is a nightly thrill to watch play defense at the hot corner, and rookie center fielder Ramon Laureano puts on a show with his arm. The question isn't why you would watch the A's, but why wouldn't you?
Boston Red Sox
Current win forecast: 109.1 (change from spring: +17.0)
Current playoff probability: 100 percent (up 36 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 19.0 percent
Boston has a 9.5-game edge over Houston in the race for the No. 1 AL playoff seed. Barring a collapse that would revisit 1978-style horrors, the Red Sox should cruise into the postseason with home-field advantage locked up for however long they last in October. This month is about setting up the pitching staff for October. That begins with getting Chris Sale and David Price healthy. Then, after that, we'll be watching to see if Nathan Eovaldi can overtake Eduardo Rodriguez in the battle for Boston's last playoff rotation spot.
Atlanta Braves
Current win forecast: 89.3 (change from spring: +15.7)
Current playoff probability: 82.1 percent (up 67.1 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 4.5 percent
The Braves are well positioned in the NL East race, though it's close enough that one week can flip everything upside down. Atlanta has not been playing particularly well over the past couple of weeks, relying on late-inning magic to maintain its edge over the Phillies. Even so, Atlanta has split its past 20 games. After finishing their current home series against the powerhouse Red Sox, the Braves head out for a seven-game trip out west. Even though Philadelphia has been sliding, don't forget that the Braves and Phillies still have seven games head-to-head remaining, including a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park to finish the regular season.
Milwaukee Brewers
Current win forecast: 92.5 (change from spring: +12.1)
Current playoff probability: 94.1 percent (up 63.1 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 2.9 percent
Remember 2017? It was last year, so if you don't, you should probably seek medical attention. The Brewers entered last season to low external expectations but got off to a .500-ish start, worked their way up to first place and remained there into the second half of the season, before hanging in the playoff race into late September. Here are the players on the opening day roster of that Brew Crew team who are still on Milwaukee's active roster: Ryan Braun, Keon Broxton, Hernan Perez, Travis Shaw, Manny Pina, Eric Thames, Jesus Aguilar, Orlando Arcia, Zach Davies, Chase Anderson, Corey Knebel and Jacob Barnes -- less than half the current squad. Brewers GM David Stearns has stayed aggressive throughout this two-year push into contention, remaking the club with one small upgrade after another (except for the big Christian Yelich/Lorenzo Cain-sized upgrades). This month is when we find out how it all works out. But the Brewers are a better team now than they were a month go, two months ago, and at any point last season. You can't say they haven't tried.
Seattle Mariners
Current win forecast: 89.4 (change from spring: +8.9)
Current playoff probability: 5.8 percent (down 22.2 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 0.0 percent
Either the Mariners are coming apart or they decided to stage a reenactment of the intramural brawl scene from "Major League." Alas, literal infighting is not a thing the fans can watch if it's happening behind closed clubhouse doors. Either the M's should install cameras in the clubhouse and beam those matches onto the video board, or they should just stage them out on the field during batting practice. They might win over a few Seahawks fans. As for actual baseball, the Mariners' playoff hopes are almost zilch, but closer Edwin Diaz still has a shot at setting a new saves record. Saves aren't something I get too excited over, but a record is a record. Diaz has saved 52 of Seattle's 77 wins, which even I have to admit is pretty remarkable.
Colorado Rockies
Current win forecast: 87.0 (change from spring: +8.8)
Current playoff probability: 38.7 percent (up 17.7 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 0.9 percent
Whatever I might say about the Rockies' negative run differential, lack of roster depth, or their 29th-or-worse bWAR ranking at four different positions, none of it erases this factoid: As I type these words, the Rockies are in first place in the NL West. They have two position players who have been top-20 performers this season in Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado. They have a legit rotation paced by two guys -- German Marquez and Kyle Freeland -- who are rolling. And the Rockies' beleaguered bullpen has been a little better of late. The Rockies are at home until Sept. 13, playing division foes, taking on the Giants, Dodgers and Diamondbacks in order. They then hit the road to play those same three teams on the road. As good as Colorado's position is right now, it feels like if they don't make good on the current homestand, their season's story will be told more by those shaky underlying metrics than that lofty standing on Labor Day. Buckle up, Rockies fans.
Tampa Bay Rays
Current win forecast: 88.2 (change from spring: +8.3)
Current playoff probability: 3.8 percent (down 20.2 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 0.1 percent
The thing is, I didn't think the Rays would be bad this season and certainly never thought they should have been lumped in with teams that some labeled as "tankers" -- a term I can't abide. I thought Tampa Bay would be perfectly mediocre. And they were, too, before the front office decided to jettison veterans Corey Dickerson, Steven Souza Jr., Chris Archer, Adeiny Hechavarria and Wilson Ramos. Then they got even better. Since July 31, the Rays have gone from 53-53 (mediocre!) to 74-63 (hey, that's pretty good). There are lots of reasons to watch this team play, even in a hellish venue like the Trop. Jake Bauers' emerging bat. The intensity of Tommy Pham. The outfield acrobatics of Kevin Kiermaier. The infield wizardry of Joey Wendle. But at the very least, tune in when Blake Snell takes the mound. No opener needed on his days. Snell has a good chance to win 20 games on a team trying to make starting pitchers as obsolete as my old portable CD player. Over his past 11 outings, Snell has been deGrom-like, only with winning decisions. He's 9-1 during that stretch, with a 1.26 ERA.
Philadelphia Phillies
Current win forecast: 84.5 (change from spring: +3.9)
Current playoff probability: 18.3 percent (down 11.7 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 0.1 percent
I've probably been a little hard on the Phillies lately because I haven't been a big fan of their approach to in-season upgrades. However, in my roster value ratings, only the Braves have increased theirs more since spring training than the Phillies have. Philadelphia ranked in the bottom five at catcher all season before acquiring Wilson Ramos; now they're ninth. The rotation has jumped from 16th to eighth, though the biggest leap in that area came during spring training, when Jake Arrieta signed on. The bullpen has jumped from 25th in my initial 2018 ratings to ninth. So this is clearly a deeper, more talented roster. The Phillies are intelligently run, in the front office and from the dugout. Nevertheless, I can't understand how when you have a weakness as glaring as the Phillies' MLB-worst defense that you can't shore up that aspect to some degree. It's there in the advanced metrics (minus-115 defensive runs saved, per Baseball Info Solutions, ranked 30th) and it's there in the old-school stats (tied for most errors, MLB-low fielding percentage and fourth-most unearned runs).
New York Yankees
Current win forecast: 99.1 (change from spring: +2.5)
Current playoff probability: 98.3 percent (up 22.3 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 5.0 percent
The formula for this year's Yankees was supposed to be a powerhouse offense plus a fire-breathing bullpen plus a decent starting rotation. With J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn performing well, the rotation part of the formula now seems to be there. The bullpen has fallen a bit short of expectations and now may be without Aroldis Chapman for the rest of the season. But it's still a strong group and a strength heading into the postseason, even if Chapman can't go. The offense has also been mostly as advertised. The Yankees are on pace to hit 264 homers, which would match the 1997 Mariners as the most ever by a team. The Yankees are on pace to score 837 runs, second in baseball behind Boston. They've also been consistent offensively, even though they've been more dependent on the long ball for run scoring than any other team. Yet it just doesn't feel like it has all come together. New York has won five of 10 and 12 of 20 coming out of a soft spot on the schedule. Can the Yanks play up to their considerable potential by the time the playoffs come around?
Houston Astros
Current win forecast: 101.8 (change from spring: +2.0)
Current playoff probability: 99.9 percent (up 18.9 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 32.3 percent
With the Indians easing up and the Red Sox on cruise control, the Astros only have to concern themselves with the race they figured to have wrapped up before the season even began: the AL West title. Little by little, the Astros have gotten their key position players back, and during Houston's current 10-3 run, they've averaged 5.3 runs per game. Now the injury focus moves to the pitching staff, where Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers Jr. are on the shelf and Hector Rondon just took a line drive off his pitching hand. With a soft finishing schedule beyond this weekend's epic clash with Boston at Fenway Park, Houston should still land comfortably into the No. 2 slot in the AL bracket. Unfortunately for Oakland, the A's won't be able to make up ground head-to-head: Those division foes won't see each other again during the regular season.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Current win forecast: 85.1 (change from spring: +2.0)
Current playoff probability: 20.2 percent (down 16.8 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 0.9 percent
If the Diamondbacks earn a postseason spot, they will have really earned it. The aggregate power rating of Arizona's remaining opponents is 92.6. That means the typical opponent from here on out is roughly the Oakland Athletics. The second-highest remaining schedule rating in baseball belongs to Toronto, at 89.7, so it's not particularly close. The Diamondbacks have been treading water for weeks now, going 26-24 over their last 50 games. Given the gauntlet that lies ahead, they'll have to be better than that persistent mediocrity to play on in October.
St. Louis Cardinals
Current win forecast: 88.8 (change from spring: +0.6)
Current playoff probability: 64.7 percent (up 10.7 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 1.9 percent
The Cardinals were a good but underperforming team earlier this season under Mike Matheny. They're now playing up to their talent level, which may or may not have happened under Matheny, but the work of Mike Shildt has certainly not hurt -- thus his interim tag is gone. Still, as well as Shildt has done, we'll tune in to watch all those kids who have sparked St. Louis' surge into contention. Tyler O'Neill is a physical marvel -- his father was a world-class body builder -- and is producing with the bat and the glove. Harrison Bader may be the best defensive outfielder in the league. He's a fringe NL Rookie of the Year candidate, though his WAR numbers are a bit inflated by swollen defensive metrics that people don't completely buy. And don't forget about the young pitchers -- Jack Flaherty, Luke Weaver, Daniel Poncedeleon, Jordan Hicks and Dakota Hudson. The Cardinal Way is back.
Chicago Cubs
Current win forecast: 93.9 (change from spring: +0.0)
Current playoff probability: 97.0 percent (up 27 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 10.6 percent
Until Monday's tough loss at Milwaukee, the Cubs were the hottest team in the National League. (Kris Bryant should probably have thrown home.) That distinction then belonged to the Brewers, and it could change nightly from here on out. As well as the Cubs have played over the second half, they still haven't put a stranglehold on the Central, much less the league as a whole. By my measure of offensive consistency, only the Nationals have been more volatile this season than the Cubs. Now that Bryant and Addison Russell are back to join newcomer Daniel Murphy, we'll see if Chicago can climb off that roller coaster. If they do, the Cubs will enter the postseason as the clear-cut pennant favorites in the senior circuit.
Cleveland Indians
Current win forecast: 91.9 (change from spring: -4.9)
Current playoff probability: 100.0 percent (up 22 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 7.7 percent
It looked ever so briefly like the Indians were about to go on a 2017-like tear. They were playing well, had several players angling for postseason awards and had a soft, AL Central-heavy schedule ahead of them. From Aug. 13 to Aug. 26, the Tribe maintained a team temperature over 100 degrees. They've since dropped eight of 12, and that temperature is down to 65 degrees -- officially in "cold" territory. This is concerning. The Cleveland bullpen, which hasn't been that good this year but seemed to have all the pieces to coalesce by October, is still struggling for consistency. Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor have cooled. Trevor Bauer and Andrew Miller are on the disabled list. Meanwhile, the Indians are two games under .500 outside of their division. Cleveland still looks like a loaded team on paper. The Indians have one more month to play like one before they enter into a treacherous AL playoff bracket.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Current win forecast: 89.6 (change from spring: -6.4)
Current playoff probability: 75.4 percent (up 0.4 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 11.6 percent
I was reading the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract and came across one of his essays on what might constitute the greatest team ever. It's not the 2018 Dodgers -- don't think I'm headed down that road. However, one of the possible criteria James mentioned was a team that was above average at every position. Well, this year's Dodgers rank in the top 10 in bWAR at every position on the field except two -- in the bullpen and at second base. Since the additions of Manny Machado and Brian Dozier, which made L.A. even deeper all over the field, the production at second base has ticked up into the top half of the majors. Situational hitting -- a problem all season for L.A. -- isn't a position, but with some highlight-reel late comebacks over Arizona this weekend, maybe that aspect of the Dodgers' season is shoring up. If so, that leaves one Achilles heel -- the bullpen. The human heel isn't that big, but it was enough to take down Achilles. And L.A.'s heel stands in the way of the 2018 Dodgers becoming a truly great team. Can that group come together during some high-stakes games this month?
Washington Nationals
Current win forecast: 83.2 (change from spring: -7.7)
Current playoff probability: 9.5 percent (down 56.5 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 0.4 percent
For one thing, the Nationals aren't completely out of it. They are almost completely out of it, but the math doesn't close the door completely. And even though the Nats have been in a mild tear-down mode for the past month or so, this is still a roster that has Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer, Bryce Harper -- possibly in his final days playing for Washington -- Trea Turner, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon and super-duper teenager Juan Soto. Washington also just called up outfielder Victor Robles, who entered the season ranked higher on the prospect lists than Soto. Washington may not be a real contender, but they have lots of games left against teams that are in the thick of the race -- the Cardinals, Cubs, Phillies, Braves and Rockies. The Nationals may not get into the playoffs, but they'll still have plenty of say in who will.
ALSO RANS
Pittsburgh Pirates
Current win forecast: 78.1 (change from spring: +1.8)
Current playoff probability: 0.0 percent (down 17 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 0.0 percent
Pirates fans aren't going to want to hear this, but Pittsburgh's pursuit of a winning record is something to root for. I know it doesn't do a thing to assuage the club's failure to get over the top during the wild-card years. Still, the Pirates were under .500 every season from 1993 to 2012. Again, winning is better than losing. Besides, this team could easily bounce back toward contention next season, so why not enter the winter with the good vibes of a winning season? Beyond that, how could you not be amped that, with the recall of Kevin Kramer on Tuesday, the Pirates can now field that double-play combo of Kramer and Newman that they had in the minors?
Miami Marlins
Current win forecast: 63.6 (change from spring: -0.1)
Current playoff probability: 0.0 percent (down 2 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 0.0 percent
Players aren't interested in pursuing high draft picks for the teams that pay them. They like to win, even for one day, because as Nuke LaLoosh said, "It's, like, better than losing." And for the fans, the pursuit of No. 1 is not really a great reason to watch a team, even though you know it's better to pick at the top of the draft than even a few spots down. This year, Baltimore and Kansas City have thoroughly embedded themselves at the bottom of the MLB standings. They'll pick first and second, with the Orioles likely in the top spot. But then you have six teams that currently have between 78 and 85 losses -- the Marlins are one of them, which is why I bring all this up here, along with the White Sox, Tigers, Rangers, Reds and Padres. One of those teams will pick third next June. But one of them will pick eighth. According to baseball-reference.com, No. 3 picks have earned a combined 578 WAR during the history of the draft. No. 8 picks have earned 280. Just sayin'.
San Francisco Giants
Current win forecast: 78.3 (change from spring: -1.1)
Current playoff probability: 0.1 percent (down 23.9 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 0.0 percent
I can't do this one. I'm not sure why you would want to watch the Giants. There are no real prospects on the roster now that Stephen Duggar is out. There are no individual quests of note. You'd like to see Joe Panik enter the winter with some confidence, or at least get back above replacement level. You'd like to see Evan Longoria get comfortable hitting at AT&T Park. Madison Bumgarner is always worth tuning in for. Still, the 2018 Giants are about as humdrum as it gets. Great city, beautiful ballpark, and there might be playoff games nearby in Oakland a month from now.
Chicago White Sox
Current win forecast: 66.5 (change from spring: -2.1)
Current playoff probability: 0.0 percent (down 5 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 0.0 percent
I'm going to deploy some arbitrary end points and tell you that of their 31 games, the White Sox have won 19. Over a longer stretch, they've won 26 of 50. They've improved on both sides of the ball, and with a big September, Chicago's batsmen have a shot at actually reaching league average. This is the trajectory you want to see out of a building team. The upsurge of offense has been driven by a lot of guys who might not be regulars on the next White Sox-contending club. But the pitching improvement is exciting -- young starters Lucas Giolito, Carlos Rodon, Reynaldo Lopez and Michael Kopech have driven the success and should be mainstays for years to come.
Detroit Tigers
Current win forecast: 63.1 (change from spring: -2.6)
Current playoff probability: 0.0 percent (down 3 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 0.0 percent
Remember the middle of June, when the Tigers had won five straight to close within a game of .500 and within a few games of Cleveland? No one really treated Detroit as if it were a surprise contender, and it turns out that was the prudent position to take. Since then, the Tigers have gone 19-46 and have been outscored by 103 runs. Their loss to Chicago on Monday dropped them behind the White Sox and into fourth place in the AL Central. While the White Sox's season trajectory is a good one for a rebuilder, the shape of the Tigers' season is not what you want to see. I'm not sure that the perception of forward momentum would do as much for the Tigers as it does for the White Sox anyway. Detroit's timeline seems longer. In the meantime, I guess you watch the kids -- defensive dynamo JaCoby Jones, recently recalled Dawel Lugo, Rule 5 pick Victor Reyes, underrated Nick Castellanos. Better than nothing, I guess.
Los Angeles Angels
Current win forecast: 79.9 (change from spring: -4.8)
Current playoff probability: 0.0 percent (down 39 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 0.0 percent
Mike Trout is back in the lineup, and even though the Angels aren't in the chase, he's still very much in the MVP picture. That's something to watch. Also, and you may not have heard about this, but the Angels have a rookie pitcher who is the first player since Babe Ruth to start 10 games and hit at least 10 home runs in a season. Assuming his elbow is sound, watching Shohei Ohtani is a solid way to wind down the season. Meanwhile, Albert Pujols is out for the season, which is sad, but that commercial he's in where he plays a clerk at a hardware store is pretty entertaining. And kind of touching.
San Diego Padres
Current win forecast: 65.2 (change from spring: -5.1)
Current playoff probability: 0.0 percent (down 9 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 0.0 percent
I'm telling you right now that the Padres are one of my picks as a sleeper/breakout team for next season -- maybe next year's version of this year's A's or Braves -- so why not get a sneak preview by watching their last month? Franmil Reyes is a powerhouse and has 15 homers and a .283 isolated power rate despite playing his home games at Petco Park. He also has just 23 RBIs. If those homer & ribbie numbers were to stay the same, that would be eight fewer RBIs than a player has ever had in a season with 15 or more dingers. Even if he hits, say, six more homers with eight more RBIs, that would be 10 fewer RBIs than anyone has had in a season with 21 or more long balls. If that's not worth watching, I don't know what is. Other than that, Luis Urias just came up, and he's a long-term solution at second base, possibly soon partnering with prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. He's a good-looking player.
Texas Rangers
Current win forecast: 69.6 (change from spring: -5.1)
Current playoff probability: 0.0 percent (down 12 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 0.0 percent
Rangers pitching continues to be ghastly, but the offense has gotten a little closer to being the force we thought it might be, given the talent of Texas' young position players. Texas was scoring at a below-average rate as late as the All-Star break despite the hitter-friendly conditions of Globe Life Park. Now the Rangers are on pace to finish 60 runs better than average. There have been some real success stories. The biggest has been the improvement of Rougned Odor, who has discovered the wonders of having a plan at the plate. He's on pace to put up a 3.8 WAR season, more than twice his preseason forecast, with both his offense and defense rating well above average. Jurickson Profar is on pace for 3.6 WAR in his first full shot at a near-everyday role. Given the stadium, the Rangers' offense and the Rangers' pitching staff, if you like runs, tune in to Texas.
Cincinnati Reds
Current win forecast: 69.9 (change from spring: -5.7)
Current playoff probability: 0.0 percent (down 15 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 0.0 percent
I track nightly pitcher game scores through the prism of matchups between starting pitchers, awarding wins to the pitchers who outperform their counterparts. Homer Bailey this season is now 0-18-1 in that system. He's not much better under the traditional system of handing out wins, going 1-13 over his first 14 decisions. Bailey signed a six-year contract extension with the Reds back in February 2014. It runs through next season, then there is a mutual option for 2020. Bailey hurt his elbow six months after signing that deal and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery. Since the injury, Bailey has gone 9-26 with a 6.27 ERA over 45 starts with a 67 ERA+. The Reds don't have much going on for the stretch run, so how about creating a little upward momentum for Bailey heading into the winter? He's earned it.
Toronto Blue Jays
Current win forecast: 72.3 (change from spring: -6.9)
Current playoff probability: 0.0 percent (down 21 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 0.0 percent
It's tempting to recommend that you forgo watching the Jays and instead just watch YouTube videos of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hitting bombs in the minors. Goodness knows you can't see the real thing in Toronto. This is a transitional big league roster right now. The Jays straddled the fence between tearing down completely and hoping they could sneak in a wild-card run. It wasn't a bad decision, but it's the kind of thing that gets ugly when it doesn't work out. You don't have the kids who are part of your future on display just yet, and there are a lot of players on the roster who aren't going to be around a year or two from now. Toronto has Kevin Pillar patrolling center field, and they have Aaron Sanchez, who only last year was looked at as one of the most promising young starters in baseball. Helping Sanchez find himself is a worthy task for this September for the Jays.
Minnesota Twins
Current win forecast: 75.2 (change from spring: -7.9)
Current playoff probability: 0.0 percent (down 38 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 0.0 percent
The Twins became the latest team to try the opener strategy this weekend, and the results weren't promising. They lost to Texas 18-4 and closed out the loss by giving catcher Chris Gimenez his 12th career appearance as a mop-up pitcher. But they'll keep trying it because that's what this month is for. Beyond that, this could be (but probably isn't) the final month in a Twins uniform for local hero Joe Mauer. Those things are worth watching. So too would be watching Byron Buxton play center field but ... service time. I don't blame the execs playing this game, but something has got to change on the policy front in this area.
New York Mets
Current win forecast: 74.0 (change from spring: -8.4)
Current playoff probability: 0.0 percent (down 35 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 0.0 percent
This latest lost season for the Mets has become entirely about Jake deGrom, who continues on his historic roll. The numbers are becoming dizzying. He has allowed just 35 earned runs in 28 starts this season, and seven of those came in a two-game span in April. He has a string of 20 straight quality starts. I don't care what you think about that stat, I've always liked it as an indicator of consistency, and that is freaking amazing. With the Nationals out of the race and the Phillies' season teetering, arguments favoring Max Scherzer or Aaron Nola because of their higher-stakes games are weakening. If deGrom keeps this up through the end of the season, his numbers will be too overwhelming to deny -- even if he finishes with eight wins. By the way, his game score won-lost record is up to 20-8. Scherzer is at 23-6, and Nola is at 19-8-1.
Kansas City Royals
Current win forecast: 56.1 (change from spring: -13.3)
Current playoff probability: 0.0 percent (down 7 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 0.0 percent
With a weekend sweep of Baltimore, the Royals likely won themselves out of a shot at the first overall pick in the draft. It's not so much a goal that the players would strive for as it is a sadistic wish of a true blue Royals fan. Take solace in this, Royals fans: K.C. has picked first one time in franchise history and drafted righty Luke Hochevar, who had his moments as a reliever but still retired with 3.6 career bWAR. The Royals have picked second twice: In 2005, they took Alex Gordon (34.4 bWAR), and in 2007, it was Mike Moustakas (14.1 WAR). Maybe No. 2 is their wheelhouse. With time to kill between now and next June, why not turn your laser focus onto second baseman Whit Merrifield, who is on pace to be a 5 WAR player this season.
Baltimore Orioles
Current win forecast: 48.3 (change from spring: -21.9)
Current playoff probability: 0.0 percent (down 7 percent from spring)
Current championship probability: 0.0 percent
The Orioles' average loss total in my current simulations is 114 games. The most games the Orioles have lost since they moved from St. Louis in 1954 is 107. That happened in 1988, the season Baltimore started by losing its first 21 games. It seems like a virtual certainty that this year's Birds will fly by that club -- in the wrong direction, of course. The Orioles have never really embraced their St. Louis Browns heritage, but this year, they may have to. The most games the Browns lost was 111, in 1939. Those Browns may soon have company.