Something is afoot with run differential. That's the answer, so let's jump back to the question.
Do you ever get an email (or text or telegram or any other form of communication) to which your knee-jerk response is an audible "Excuse me?"? I got one of those the other day. The message posed this question, which I am paraphrasing: How much have all the blowouts this season contributed to the declining impact of run differential?
Excuse me?
Run differential is everywhere in baseball these days, its influence on our perception of the game growing gradually ever since the 1980s, when Bill James pointed out the strong correlation between how many runs a team scores and allows, and its winning percentage. There's a lot behind the theory, and if by chance you're not up on it, here's a primer.
For me, the most important thing to bear in mind is that a team's run profile is a better indicator of its future fortunes than its won-lost record. That has the double consequence of also being a better indicator of underlying talent. It's an important lesson to take to heart -- unless the lesson is no longer true.
Typically, by the time we get through a full season, and random variables have started to even out, the final standings tend to dovetail a great deal with team-by-team run differentials. But there are always differences, some small, some historically large. Run differential is not an absolute predictor, and one of its great functions is to lead us into investigations of why a team's profile might not be accurately reflected in the standings.
Getting back to that emailed question, is run differential really declining in impact? What would even spur such a question? Before I could even ponder the former, I had to wrap my arms around the latter. Why would this person even suggest such a thing?
It didn't take long to find the answer. This season, the relationship between expected won-lost percentage (as calculated by run differential) and actual won-lost percentage is the weakest it's been in nearly four decades.
In a typical season, the average difference between teams' expected records and their actual records tends to be a little more than three games. Let's call that the average error. Last year, the average error was 2.76, a low number. The figure for the period between 2011 and 2017 was 3.16. That's also a low number. This could be, and this is just a theory, because teams are more aware of the relationship between runs and wins than ever, and somehow they've come to operate in a way that takes out some of the luck factor.
During the decade of the aughts, the average error was 3.34, which is typical of post-World War II baseball. The average error in the decades since the war fluctuated within a narrow range between 3.25 and 3.34. Before that, in the decades going back to 1901, it was 3.57. Whatever the reasons, over time, the number has grown smaller.
Until this season. Based on the differentials so far in 2018, projected for the full season, the average error between expected wins and actual wins is 4.53.
I realize that this statistic is so esoteric as to stifle any wow-type reactions. Not many of you just waved your partner into the room to tell them about the average error. ("But it's 4.53! FOUR. POINT. FIVE. THREE.") OK, none of you did that. Neither did I. Still, this is a pretty startling number.
That result -- 4.53 -- would be the highest in a season since 1981. And 1981 was a weird year because of the long strike and split-season schedule. Looking at just full seasons, we haven't had that large a disparity since 1947.
Returning to the original question, it's clear why one would think that run differential has suddenly become an unreliable narrator. However, to know whether this is really the case, we'd have to understand why this has happened. I'm not sure we do.
A big part of this story is the Seattle Mariners. As is laid out in the FanGraphs article linked earlier, the Mariners are on target to have the largest deviation between expected and actual wins in history.
But even if you remove Seattle, the average error this season is 4.01 -- the largest since 1995, another partial season. You have to go back to 1978 for a full season with that large of a disparity. To get this season's average error down to the decade's pre-2018 average (3.16), you actually have to zero out the top four teams. To get to last year's number (2.76), you have to get rid of five teams. It's not just the Mariners.
In theory, if you could find a common thread between those teams, you might reveal some underlying shift in the game. If so, it wouldn't be that shocking. After all, we're in a time of all kinds of historic norm-bending, between the rise of strikeouts, decline in balls in play and other extreme indicators. For example: Did you know we're on pace to break the record for fewest assists per game for the third consecutive season?
Alas, there really isn't a common thread I can discern that covers all these teams, much less the league as a whole. Some possibilities:
1. Blowouts. That is part of the story. The Astros are 5-0 in games decided by 10 or more runs, with a differential of 63-3 in those games. The Dodgers are 5-2 with a plus-39 in such games. Conversely, the Rockies are 1-3 with a minus-15, and have gone 12-18 in games decided by five or more runs. The oddball Mariners are 0-3 and have been outscored 33-2 in games decided by 10-plus runs. Two of those drubbings came against the Dodgers.
The extreme blowouts are a factor, but they don't affect all these teams. And there haven't been an unusual rate of blowouts this season. In a typical season, with a run environment in the neighborhood of what we've seen this year (4.45 runs per team per game), about one in 27 games is decided by 10 or more runs. This season, that number is one in 29. Blowouts were more common last year -- one in 22. There were 113 extreme blowouts last season. We're at 69 this season with a month to play.
The thing is, we don't want to get too hung up on this being a misleading indicator because blowout wins are actually a great measure of team strength. (Sorry, Rockies fans.) Much more so than record in close games. Speaking of which ...
2. Close games. That's another explanation for Seattle, and applies to Colorado as well. The Rockies are 23-13 in one-run games and 18-8 in two-run games. That's a lot of drama. Colorado's bullpen has been nothing special, but the Rockies have been terrific in terms of situational hitting. The Mariners are 32-18 in one-run games and 16-3 in two-run games. Seattle is second situationally in both hitting and pitching, according to FanGraphs' clutch statistics, and the Mariners' closer, Edwin Diaz, is a borderline Cy Young contender. That's how a team with a 75-win run profile ends up on pace for 90 wins.
The Orioles are a combined 19-41 in one- and two-run games. They're bad at everything else, so why not that? Baltimore ranks 29th in situational hitting. But that's better than the Dodgers, who rank 30th. Los Angeles is 27th in situational pitching. That's how a team with a 97-win run profile ends up on pace for 87 wins.
3. Position players pitching. There's been a lot of attention paid to this trend this season, but the fact of the matter is that this remains such an uncommon occurrence as to be largely meaningless. You know how many runs have been allowed this season by position players? Sixty-eight. You know what happens if we remove those runs from the record? Jack squat. Well, it does reduce the average error to 4.3, but that's neither meaningful nor explanatory. An end-of-the-bullpen reliever might have given up a lot of those runs as well.
4. Poor situational hitting. Maybe, but this seems to be more a matter of style than substance. Batting averages are lower these days with men on base than they used to be, but isolated power is up. According to FanGraphs, teams strike out 5 percent more often with runners in scoring position than they did 15 years ago. In terms of creating runs, things have actually gotten a bit better. Besides, this wouldn't really be reflected in league-level metrics. If one team is failing to convert baserunners, that means another is succeeding in preventing them to score.
Still, it is possible that, for teams like the Dodgers, a tendency to go for the long ball with runners in scoring position might lead to inconsistency. Some games it clicks and results in blowouts. Some games it doesn't, and teams waste all those runners. But it's not reflected in bottom-line totals -- the percentage of baserunners converted to runs is largely unchanged from 10, 20 or 30 years ago.
But maybe game-to-game consistency skews toward certain kinds of teams. Indeed, the Dodgers rank 25th in terms of the largest game-to-game standard deviation in run differential. That is to say: Only five teams have been more inconsistent on a day-by-day basis than L.A. Colorado ranks 19th in consistency, Seattle ranks 20th and Washington ranks 23rd. However, the Chicago Cubs rank second by this measure of consistency, and their situational hitting has been poor. The Cubs' hitters rank 28th in clutch, according to FanGraphs.
5. Competitive imbalance. This one was suggested to me. I don't see a clear relationship to this issue but it's possible. A great team gets fat on a terrible team, exaggerating its expected win total. I see the idea, and indeed the American League is unusually imbalanced this season. But does that explain the Mariners? The Rockies or Nationals? I'm not seeing it, especially since the occurrence of extreme blowouts is not any more common than it's been in the past.
In the end, the story is a little bit different for all of these teams. The unusually weak relationship between run differential and wins this season appears to just be one of those things.
Circling around to our original question, the lack of a clear explanation means there isn't anything obvious that would suggest run differential has suddenly become less predictive. It's not having its best season, but stick with run differential. It'll only let you down sometimes.
What the numbers say
Hinch works well with others
The Astros announced a contract extension for manager A.J. Hinch on Thursday that runs through the 2022 season. It's a smart move to retain a manager who in many ways is the epitome of what the position has evolved into. He's a great communicator, with the team, fans and media alike. He is analytically savvy in that he understands and buys into the concepts, but allows himself the leeway to deviate from them if he senses it's the right thing to do.
That's important because increasingly, managers are looked at as mere functionaries whose charge is to carry out front-office schemes. In some ways, that's kind of true but it's also a simplification. Running a team, whether it's as field manager or from the front office, is a collaboration, more so than it's ever been. Hinch is an ace collaborator.
In the dugout, Hinch has encouraged his athletic young team to be aggressive, sometimes almost too much. The Astros are a gas to watch and, obviously, they've been successful at playing their style of baseball. But it's far from a push-button enterprise.
Just to cite a couple of examples of Houston's smart aggressiveness:
1. Only two teams have lost a higher percentage of their baserunners on base, i.e., players who have reached base without scoring or are left on the bags. But Houston is fourth in converting baserunners into runs. There is no standing around. The Astros are always making something happen.
2. As a numbers-friendly, American League team, the Astros don't bunt very often. You'd expect that. Only four teams have attempted fewer sacrifices. But when Hinch calls for a bunt, it's usually successful. According to BaseballProspectus.com, Houston has converted 70.5 percent of its sacrifice attempts, the fifth-best rate in all of baseball.
The combination of Hinch, general manager Jeff Luhnow, owner Jim Crane and this dynamic group of young players is a winning mix. The Astros are pushing for continuity at this point, and why wouldn't they?
To take an abrupt turn, the number about Houston this year that jumps out to me reflects just how much better the champs have played away from Minute Maid Park. What does that have to do with Hinch? Not much, I'd guess, but if I were in Houston, I'd love to ask him about it.
Home and away records are freely available on most versions of the big league standings that you find online and in print. But when you think about the power of run differential, you know those figures reveal only part of the story.
One example: The Cubs are 44-24 at Wrigley Field this season, but just 34-30 on the road. That's the Friendly Confines for you! But here's a strange thing: By runs, Chicago is plus-37 at home and on the road the Cubbies are a robust plus-74. Converting those differentials to per-162-game records, Chicago has played like an 89-win team at home and a 102-win team on the road. Betcha didn't realize that.
If you take the projected home-win number and subtract the road-win number, Chicago is at minus-12.5. Meaning that for whatever reason, the Cubs have been 12.5 wins per 162 games worse at home, although their actual won-lost record does not reflect that. I don't know that there is a whole lot of meaning in that, but it is interesting to know.
Another interesting thing is that the Cubs' rather large road edge is dwarfed by that of Hinch's Astros. Houston is 35-30 at home and 47-21 on the road, so you can see this disparity in the regular standings. However, unlike the Cubs, that fact is clearly underscored by the Astros' run profile. At home, the Astros have played like a 96-win team -- better than their actual home mark would suggest.
On the road, the Astros have been beasts, outscoring opponents by 167 runs. The differential translates to 121 wins over 162 games. One. Two. One. That makes the Astros easily the most road-friendly team this year, with a 24.9-win advantage over their home profile.
By the way, the flip side of the Houston home-road freak show is that of the Tampa Bay Rays, who clearly are drawing inspiration from the fever house known as The Trop. The Rays have played like a 104-win team at home, but just a 71-win team on the road.
Since you asked
No yellin' from Yelich
Milwaukee's Christian Yelich is not about to pound his chest declaring himself an MVP candidate, so I guess that leaves it up to me and Schoenfield.
Yelich is a quiet guy who absolutely does not want to talk about himself. You can create a decent parlor game out of trying to get him to do it. But if he has many more games like Wednesday's 6-for-6, hit-for-the-cycle, throw-out-a-runner-at-home outing, Yelich is going to push his way into the thick of the discussion.
Last week, I listed Yelich as one of the National League's top position players in the introduction to my Awards Index. I also noted that with the NL race being so packed, and the top players from those teams hard to distinguish from one another, it's a competition that will change on a nightly basis.
Indeed it has. With that breakout Wednesday, Yelich completed a six-place leap in the Index and now ranks third behind Arizona's Paul Goldschmidt and St. Louis' Matt Carpenter. And he's third with a bullet: According to "batter temperature" at BillJamesOnline.com, Yelich is the hottest hitter in baseball.
Just sticking to NL position players, Yelich is seventh if fWAR (FanGraphs WAR), sixth in bWAR (Baseball-Reference WAR), third in Win Shares, third in win probability added and second in championship probability added.
Milwaukee's trade for Yelich last winter came on the most interesting day of the hot stove season, when the Brewers nabbed him from Miami and signed former Royals outfielder Lorenzo Cain from the free-agent market. Both acquisitions could have hardly worked out better. Yelich and Cain have been Milwaukee's best players this season and both are in the MVP picture.
But don't try to get Yelich to talk about it.
Your road numbers this year are in line with what you've always done, but your home numbers in Milwaukee are a lot better than they were in Miami. What's behind that?
Christian Yelich: (He shrugs. For a second, I don't think he's going to answer the question.) I don't really look at numbers. I couldn't tell you what my home-road stats are or anything like that.
Do you like hitting in Miller Park?
CY: Miller Park is a good place to hit. Probably better than Miami. Especially for power.
We could go on like this, but you get the idea. At one point, Mike Moustakas stops by and drops a bag from a doughnut shop on Yelich's chair. "What did you do, Moose?" But I could tell he was pleased, and for the rest of the conversation, I felt like he was thinking about what was in the bag.
None of this is meant to place Yelich in any sort of negative light. To the contrary -- it's meant to draw a portrait of a very humble guy. You can't help but respect that, even if it would be better for me if he started shouting, "I'm the MVP!" He'll talk, if you ask about a teammate, or the team in general. Just as long as the perpendicular pronoun is not involved.
But if Yelich won't talk about himself, others in the Milwaukee clubhouse are more than happy to do so.
Manager Craig Counsell: Christian has been a tremendous offensive player for us. His flexibility in the outfield is big for us, being able to play different positions out there. Look, he's just a great offensive player. He does everything. His power has picked up, he's run the bases really well. Obviously, he's gotten off to a hot start in the second half.
GM David Stearns: He's probably been at the top end of what we had possibly expected him to be. I'd say both he and Lo [Cain] have been that way. Both of those guys have come in and fit very well in our clubhouse, fit well into our lineup, have been the consummate professionals who have really paced this team, from spring training on. They've both been great and we're fortunate to have them for years to come.
So which guy is your best MVP candidate?
DS: I'll let you guys make that decision.
Coming right up
Are A's up to challenge?
It's a big week for the surprising Oakland A's, who began a 10-game homestand Thursday against Seattle. Oakland holds a commanding lead over the Mariners for the AL's second wild-card spot at this point. In fact, the Mariners are now closer to falling behind the red-hot Rays than catching Oakland. The four-game set at Oakland Coliseum is a chance for the A's to step on the Mariners' proverbial throat.
And then the Yankees come in for three games beginning Monday. This will be Oakland's last best chance to close the gap between it and New York for the top wild-card spot and the home-field advantage that goes with it. The A's were 19-21 after dropping two of three at Yankee Stadium in May. Things have changed.
And none of this is to overlook Oakland's race with Houston for the AL West title. The Astros are looking at a soft week, with a four-game series against the Angels that began Thursday, then three more at Minute Maid Park against Minnesota. That sets up nicely for the Astros but, then again, maybe they'd be more comfortable if those games were on the road.