In some respects, it takes years to evaluate deadline deals because that's how long it takes before we know how the prospects involved pan out. But in other respects, we can draw almost immediate conclusions. That's because, for contenders, in-season trades are made for one purpose: to enhance the club's chances of getting to the postseason. When viewed through that short-term lens, it doesn't take long to draw some conclusions.
We're nearly a month past the July 31 deadline for non-waiver trades, though a few waiver deals have trickled in since then. We'll probably have more before Friday, the last day that an organization can add a player from another team and have that player be eligible for the playoffs. Still, we're already at a point where we can make some judgments about the deals that were made with a playoff push in mind.
Let's take a look. We're considering all trades made since the beginning of July that can at least in some fashion be deemed as motivated to improve a team's postseason outlook.
All-Star break playoff odds: 89%. Current playoff odds: 94%
Grade: A+
-- Texas Rangers traded RHP Jesse Chavez to Cubs for LHP Tyler Thomas.
-- Rangers traded LHP Cole Hamels and cash to Cubs for RHP Eddie Butler, RHP Rollie Lacy and a player to be named later.
-- Washington Nationals traded RHP Brandon Kintzler to Cubs for RHP Jhon Romero.
-- Nationals traded 2B Daniel Murphy to Cubs for 2B Andruw Monasterio and a player to be named.
Hamels has plugged the Yu Darvish-shaped hole in the Cubs' rotation and if we gave out a special Cy Young award just for midseason acquisitions, Hamels would get it. He has been amazing.
The initial returns on the Murphy acquisition are almost as promising, though we'll see how the playing time shakes out once Kris Bryant and Addison Russell are ready to return to the lineup. At any rate, Murphy only adds to the deepest group of position players in baseball.
Chavez has been the bullpen version of Hamels, with a 1.29 ERA over 16 outings and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 26-2. Jorge De La Rosa -- picked up off the scrap heap rather than via trade -- also has been very good. Kintzler (9.39 ERA, 2.35 WHIP) has not. Still, if Brandon Morrow can get back by October, the Chicago bullpen will offer multiple options for every situation.
ASB playoff odds: 58%. Current playoff odds: 83%
Grade: A
-- Tampa Bay Rays traded LHP Jonny Venters to Braves for future considerations.
-- Baltimore Orioles traded RHP Brad Brach to Braves for future considerations.
-- Orioles traded RHP Kevin Gausman and RHP Darren O'Day to Braves for RHP Evan Phillips, 3B Jean Carlos Encarnacion, C Brett Cumberland, LHP Bruce Zimmermann and future considerations.
-- Cincinnati Reds traded LF Adam Duvall to Braves for RHP Lucas Sims, RHP Matt Wisler and OF Preston Tucker.
Gausman has been manna for the Atlanta rotation, going 4-1 with a 1.69 ERA over his first five outings for the Braves. Brach has given up only one earned run in 12⅔ innings. Venters has given up one run in 10⅓ innings. Duvall hasn't done much, but the Braves haven't needed him to.
Perhaps as important as any of this, Atlanta GM Alex Anthopoulos steered away from any splashy deals involving his top prospects, instead opting to let his young core see how far it could take this thing. Right now, it appears as if the group can take this thing pretty far.
The Braves' breakout has been evident since opening day and their momentum has been a slow burn. You don't say this often about a team with so much emergent talent, but Atlanta has been perhaps the most consistent team in the majors. Now, with rosters set to expand on Sept. 1, the Atlanta cause will be aided by a slew of live young arms. If you think the Braves are going to fade, you haven't been paying attention.
ASB playoff odds: 45%. Current playoff odds: 92%
Grade: A
-- New York Mets traded RHP Jeurys Familia to Athletics for RHP Bobby Wahl, 3B William Toffey and future considerations.
-- Washington Nationals traded RHP Shawn Kelley and cash to Athletics for future considerations.
-- Detroit Tigers traded RHP Mike Fiers to Athletics for future considerations.
-- Minnesota Twins traded RHP Fernando Rodney to Athletics for RHP Dakota Chalmers.
It feels as if everything Oakland execs David Forst and Billy Beane have touched this season has turned into green gold. Rodney and Kelley have combined to throw 17 scoreless innings since they arrived in Oakland. Familia has a 2.41 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 18⅔ innings. Fiers is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in four starts since coming over from Detroit in a waiver deal.
The added depth for Bob Melvin's pitching staff will be tested with this week's injuries to Sean Manaea and Brett Anderson. Do Forst and Beane have a little more magic in them before Friday's deadline?
ASB playoff odds: 18%. Current playoff odds: 80%
Grade: A-
-- New York Yankees traded LHP Chasen Shreve and RHP Giovanny Gallegos to Cardinals for 1B Luke Voit and future considerations.
-- Cardinals traded CF Tommy Pham and future considerations to Tampa Bay Rays for RF Justin Williams, LHP Genesis Cabrera and RHP Roel Ramirez.
It's not that these trades did much to propel the Cardinals on the season-making run they are on right now. It's more of what they signify. No more papering over of holes with veterans. Instead, St. Louis decided to repair itself from within, which is what the Cardinals always have done when they're at their best. St. Louis, behind interim-turned-permanent manager Mike Shildt, just overtook the Braves for the big league lead in WAR produced by rookies.
It's not always about the trades that you make. Sometimes, it's about the message you send with the ones you don't.
New York Yankees
ASB playoff odds: 98%. Current playoff odds: 100%
Grade: B+
-- Baltimore Orioles traded LHP Zach Britton to Yankees for RHP Cody Carroll, RHP Dillon Tate and LHP Josh Rogers.
-- Toronto Blue Jays traded J.A. Happ to Yankees for LF Billy McKinney and 3B Brandon Drury.
-- Yankees traded LHP Chasen Shreve and RHP Giovanny Gallegos to St. Louis Cardinals for 1B Luke Voit and future considerations.
-- Minnesota Twins traded RHP Lance Lynn and cash to Yankees for 1B Tyler Austin and RHP Luis Rijo.
Losing four straight in Boston was certainly not good for the Yankees, but it temporarily made things seem worse in New York than they were. That series was the season's low point, but it's really the only low point the Bombers have suffered all season. Since then, New York has gone 16-6 with a plus-33 run differential -- all with Aaron Judge out because of his cracked wrist.
Now that the ship has been righted, we can focus on how well the acquisitions of Happ and Lynn have worked out. Happ has won all five of his starts with a 2.37 ERA, and Lynn has a 3.98 ERA while striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings. Their contributions have been crucial because of a little six-start blip for ace Luis Severino.
Now Aaron Boone should have little difficulty putting together a quality playoff rotation, especially considering the depth of his bullpen. That bullpen, by the way, hasn't gotten much from Britton, though five weeks still remain to get him back to form.
Meanwhile, don't overlook Voit, a legit power bat who got lost in a deep St. Louis system. In 12 games with New York, Voit has hit .351/.400/.595 with three homers and nine RBIs. It's production that, for that stretch at least, looks positively Judgian.
ASB playoff odds: 100%. Current playoff odds: 100%
Grade: B-
--Tampa Bay Rays traded RHP Nathan Eovaldi to Red Sox for LHP Jalen Beeks.
-- Los Angeles Angels traded 2B Ian Kinsler and cash to Red Sox for RHP Ty Buttrey and LHP Williams Jerez.
Eovaldi (2-2, 3.94 ERA over six starts) has been solid, which understates how crucial his acquisition has been. The Red Sox have dealt with a number of rotation injuries, including to ace Chris Sale, but Eovaldi has helped keep things stable enough that they've been able to remain patient with Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez.
Kinsler hasn't hit much since coming over from the Angels, though he has shined in the field and should be headed for the AL Gold Glove at second base. The Red Sox have so much offense elsewhere on the diamond that they can afford to go defense first up the middle in Kinsler, catcher Sandy Leon and center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr.
In a sense, this grade is incomplete. As good as the Red Sox have been, this is not a perfect roster. So we'll see if the momentum of Boston's immense regular season can be maintained into the playoffs, where the Red Sox won't have a talent edge over any of the other power teams in the circuit.
ASB playoff odds: 91%. Current playoff odds: 100%
Grade: C+
-- Houston Astros traded RHP James Hoyt to Indians for RHP Tommy DeJuneas.
-- San Diego Padres traded LHP Brad Hand and RHP Adam Cimber to Indians for C Francisco Mejia.
-- Detroit Tigers traded CF Leonys Martin and RHP Kyle Dowdy to Indians for SS Willi Castro.
Hand has emerged as Cleveland's closer for now, with Andrew Miller back on the DL and Cody Allen struggling. Cimber has not pitched well since coming over from San Diego, however, adding to the list of questions about the Indians' bullpen.
Martin was a great fit for center field, but his season is over after a terrifying battle with a bacterial infection that threatened his life. Greg Allen has been playing well lately, so perhaps he will solve that position.
Cleveland's easy road to the playoffs has been evident since December, but how the Indians will fare remains a question mark. The star power is considerable -- Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer all have been among the top players in baseball this season. In a way, that only makes the concerns elsewhere on the roster that much more perplexing.
Even if the bullpen comes together by October, when you look at the Cleveland outfield and the struggles of second baseman Jason Kipnis, you can't help but think the Indians could have done more. Still, for Cleveland, the outlook remains dependent on their mainstays performing like mainstays.
Houston Astros
ASB playoff odds: 98%. Current playoff odds: 100%
Grade: C+
-- Los Angeles Angels traded C Martin Maldonado to Astros for LHP Patrick Sandoval and future considerations.
-- Minnesota Twins traded RHP Ryan Pressly to Astros for CF Gilberto Celestino and RHP Jorge Alcala.
-- Toronto Blue Jays traded RHP Roberto Osuna to Astros for RHP David Paulino, RHP Hector Perez and RHP Ken Giles.
Osuna (2.70 ERA, two saves) has been fine, and Pressly (1.42 ERA, 15 strikeouts, zero walks) has been great. With Chris Devenski set to return from the DL, Houston's bullpen is set up nicely for another playoff run -- better than it was at this time last year.
Maldonado wasn't acquired for his bat and, indeed, he hasn't hit much, though he has had a couple of big moments at the plate. More concerning is that the pitching staff's numbers with Maldonado haven't been quite as good with him behind the plate as they've been with Brian McCann or Max Stassi.
The blistering pace the Houston starters set early this season has slowed to a crawl. Charlie Morton just went on the DL because of a shoulder issue, and manager A.J. Hinch suggested this week that Lance McCullers Jr. might not have enough time to build back up to a starting role by October.
Could the Astros have added another starter for depth? Maybe, but that's hindsight talking. As a group, the rotation has been one of baseball's best over the course of the season and there's no reason to think it won't be the same when the stakes get higher.
As for the position players, there never was anything wrong that better health couldn't fix. Still, the Astros need to see the 2017 versions of George Springer, Carlos Correa and Josh Reddick pretty soon. The upshot is that given chances to prove themselves, Tony Kemp and Tyler White have emerged to make the Houston bench that much longer.
ASB playoff odds: 58%. Current playoff odds: 70%
Grade: C
-- Chicago White Sox traded RHP Joakim Soria and cash to Brewers for LHP Kodi Medeiros and RHP Wilber Perez.
-- Kansas City Royals traded 3B Mike Moustakas to Brewers for CF Brett Phillips and RHP Jorge Lopez.
-- Baltimore Orioles traded 2B Jonathan Schoop to Brewers for 2B Jonathan Villar, RHP Luis Ortiz and SS Jean Carmona.
You have to give the Brewers credit for being aggressive, especially since we so often are quick to criticize small-market teams (i.e., Pittsburgh) for not doing enough to maximize their chances during contending seasons. Still, for all Milwaukee has done, you can't help but wish it had been able to connect with a partner to aid the rotation.
Moustakas has been Moustakas, which is a good thing. Schoop, on the other hand, has struggled as a Brewer, just as he did this year as an Oriole. The Milwaukee defense led the majors in defensive runs saved at the break, with a 162-game pace of plus-132. The Brewers are now on pace to finish at plus-111, which still would be second behind Arizona. Despite the creative positioning that made the Brewers' trades necessary, the fielding remains a plus.
It's hard to pinpoint why the Brewers have lost momentum. An offense that struggled for much of the season's first half has moved close to league average. The run prevention has faltered, however, as the heavy workload the bullpen carried early in the season has come to roost. It's not that those relievers, such as Jeremy Jeffress and Josh Hader, have lost it.
It's more that Milwaukee recognized that they couldn't keep riding their key firemen so relentlessly and thus had to spread those innings around a little more. That means giving high-leverage spots to lesser performers. The Brewers rank 20th in win probability added from their relievers since the break. Before that, they were ninth.
Meanwhile, no contending team has gotten fewer rotation innings than Milwaukee. Maybe the starter the Brewers need just wasn't there to be had at a reasonable cost. Maybe Craig Counsell will be able to work his bullpen down the stretch in a similar way that he did early in the season. Still, you'd like to see what this picture would look like with one more quality starting pitcher.
ASB playoff odds: 40%. Current playoff odds: 32%
Grade: C-
--Tampa Bay Rays traded RHP Matt Andriese to Diamondbacks for C Michael Perez and RHP Brian Shaffer.
-- Minnesota Twins traded INF Eduardo Escobar to Diamondbacks for RF Ernie De La Trinidad, RF Gabriel Maciel and RHP Jhoan Duran.
-- Texas Rangers traded LHP Jake Diekman to Diamondbacks for RHP Wei-Chieh Huang and a player to be named.
-- Miami Marlins traded RHP Brad Ziegler to Diamondbacks for RHP Tommy Eveld.
Arizona is four games over .500 since the All-Star break and has been unable to take advantage of the continued floundering of division favorite Los Angeles. On top of that, the Diamondbacks have been run down from behind by Colorado. So even though the Diamondbacks have remained atop the NL West, their metrics-based outlook hasn't changed much at all.
The deal for Escobar has paid off well enough. He has hit .278/.336/.474 for Arizona, not quite what he'd been doing for Minnesota but still above his career baseline. Still, the Diamondbacks ranked 21st in third base bWAR (Baseball-Reference.com WAR) at the break; they now rank 22nd. Nevertheless, with Jake Lamb done for the year, things probably would be much worse had Escobar not been acquired.
The Diamondbacks went hard after bullpen help, adding Diekman, Ziegler and Andriese. The trio has combined for a 4.82 ERA, and Andriese was optioned to the minors. Arizona's level of play has been solid, as the team has gone from a plus-42 run differential at the break to plus-83.
Yet that hasn't paid off with a leap in the standings, and the bullpen woes have been a big part of that. Arizona ranks 26th in win probability added from its bullpen since the break and has gone 4-8 in one-run games.
ASB playoff odds: 73%. Current playoff odds: 67%
Grade: D+
-- Cincinnati Reds traded RHP Dylan Floro, RHP Zach Neal and future considerations to Dodgers for RHP James Marinan and RHP Aneurys Zabala.
-- Baltimore Orioles traded SS Manny Machado to Dodgers for 2B Breyvic Valera, RHP Dean Kremer, 3B Rylan Bannon, RF Yusniel Diaz and RHP Zach Pop.
-- Minnesota Twins traded 2B Brian Dozier to Dodgers for 2B Logan Forsythe, OF Luke Raley and LHP Devin Smeltzer.
-- Toronto Blue Jays traded RHP John Axford to Dodgers for RHP Corey Copping.
The problems start with Machado, who has been just so-so as a Dodger. As the highest-profile rental on the market, Machado was not acquired to be so-so. Dozier has been decent, with an .816 OPS for L.A., but he really hasn't been much better than Forsythe has been for the Twins.
The bottom line is that the additions of Machado and Dozier have not -- yet -- moved the needle for a Dodgers offense that was already productive and deep, but inconsistent. The walks and homers were there, and still are. The situational hitting has remained elusive.
More damning, though, is that the yawning chasm between the Dodgers' rotation and closer Kenley Jansen remains unfilled, a problem exacerbated by Jansen's recent downturn. Dave Roberts has been moving relievers in and out of roles all season. He has had to. Nothing has clicked for any length of time.
L.A. has been able to piece together bullpens in recent seasons by turning coal into diamonds. This season, it just hasn't happened. If this ends up sinking the Dodgers' season, the fact that they didn't get some help for the bullpen at the deadline will be a hot topic for a long time in L.A.
ASB playoff odds: 42%. Current playoff odds: 35%
Grade: D
-- Toronto Blue Jays traded RHP Seunghwan Oh to Rockies for 1B Chad Spanberger and 2B Forrest Wall.
Colorado has managed to go from seven games over .500 at the break to 12 games over, all while being outscored by 13 runs. It's a nice trick, built on a 15-6 post-break record in games decided by one or two runs. That's a surprising mark for a team that has blown 10 saves since the break, most in baseball.
The Rockies' offense ranked 23rd in OPS+ at the break. It ranks 23rd now. It's a very top-heavy attack, with Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story surrounded by a bunch of positions ranking in the bottom 10 by bWAR (though second base has been better since DJ LeMahieu returned to the lineup).
The Colorado season has been an unlikely one. According to the Baseball Gauge, the two plays this season with the most impact on the title chase have both been game-winning homers by the Rockies (Ryan McMahon on Aug. 11 and Ian Desmond on Aug. 23).
That's exciting, but is this high-wire act sustainable?
ASB playoff odds: 36%. Current playoff odds: 8%
Grade: D-
-- St. Louis Cardinals traded RHP Sam Tuivailala to Mariners for RHP Seth Elledge.
-- New York Yankees traded RHP Adam Warren to Mariners for future considerations.
-- Minnesota Twins traded LHP Zach Duke and cash to Mariners for RHP Chase De Jong and 1B Ryan Costello.
-- Miami Marlins traded LF Cameron Maybin to Mariners for SS Bryson Brigman and future considerations.
The Mariners danced to a great first half on ground built from situational success, which makes for a rather porous foundation. Still, those wins were real and with the right talent infusion, perhaps the Seattle quest to snap its postseason drought could have been completed.
The results: Tuivailala is on the 60-day DL. Duke has a 8.10 ERA. Warren has walked more than he has struck out. Maybin is hitting .210. It's not over yet for Seattle, but its odds get longer with each passing day.
ASB playoff odds: 65%. Current playoff odds: 22%
Grade: F
-- New York Mets traded 2B Asdrubal Cabrera to Phillies for RHP Franklyn Kilome.
-- Toronto Blue Jays traded LHP Aaron Loup to Phillies for RHP Jacob Waguespack.
-- Tampa Bay Rays traded C Wilson Ramos to Phillies for a player to be named.
-- Miami Marlins traded 1B Justin Bour and cash to Phillies for LHP McKenzie Mills.
-- Chicago White Sox traded LHP Luis Avilan to Phillies for RHP Felix Paulino.
-- Mets traded RF Jose Bautista to Phillies for a player to be named.
Philadelphia has remained aggressive into August, with the last three of those listed deals coming through the waiver process. Yet the Phillies have lost 13 of 19 while being outscored by 38 runs. They took the opposite approach as division rival Atlanta, with opposite results.
Ramos has been terrific at the plate (1.285 OPS in 31 plate appearances), but none of the other deals have really had an impact. (To be fair, the August deals have hardly had a chance to work out.) Cabrera has hit with the Phillies precisely as Scott Kingery had, only you have to stomach his defense. Loup has been a nonfactor.
The Phillies have a lot of young fireballers as bullpen possibilities, but it has yet to come together in a cohesive way, especially since closer Seranthony Dominguez lost his early mojo. In August, Philadelphia ranks 24th in win probability added from the bullpen.
Worst of all, nothing has been done to address the Phillies' awful defense. At the break, Philadelphia was on pace to finish 29th with a minus-109 defensive runs saved. The Phillies are now on pace to finish dead last with minus-125 DRS. It's hard to finish last in a world that includes the Baltimore Orioles.
ASB playoff odds: 8%. Current playoff odds: 0%
Grade: F
-- Tampa Bay Rays traded RHP Chris Archer to Pirates for RHP Tyler Glasnow, CF Austin Meadows and a player to be named later (Shane Baz).
-- Texas Rangers traded RHP Keone Kela to Pirates for LHP Taylor Hearn and a player to be named.
Why the Pirates picked 2018 to make a deadline splash when their playoff odds were so long is a mystery, though a decline in attendance and some relentlessly negative coverage of the team might have something to do with it.
The Pirates gave up real talent at the deadline to bolster the pitching staff. Then the offense scored seven runs during a seven-game homestand while Pittsburgh's slim hopes fluttered away in the breeze.
SPECIAL CASES
Tampa Bay Rays
ASB playoff odds: 10%. Current playoff odds: 1%
Grade: A
-- Rays traded RHP Nathan Eovaldi to Boston Red Sox for LHP Jalen Beeks.
-- Rays traded RHP Chris Archer to Pittsburgh Pirates for RHP Tyler Glasnow, CF Austin Meadows and player to be named (Shane Baz).
-- St. Louis Cardinals traded CF Tommy Pham and future considerations to Rays for RF Justin Williams, LHP Genesis Cabrera and RHP Roel Ramirez.
-- Rays traded SS Adeiny Hechavarria and cash to Pirates for RHP Matt Seelinger.
Listed here are just a few of the deals Tampa Bay has completed this season. We've stuck them down here because the Rays aren't really a playoff contender, and they didn't behave like one around the trade deadline.
The Rays just keep doing what they do. Forget about the odds listed here. Tampa Bay isn't going to the postseason and the decline of their odds is simply a reflection of the calendar. There isn't enough time for them to close the gap in either the division race or for the AL's second wild card.
Still, the Rays added to their system and acquired players who have helped their 2018 roster with their trades. Despite what it has given up, Tampa Bay is a better team now than it was earlier this season and is better positioned for the future.
Washington Nationals
ASB playoff odds: 33%. Current playoff odds: 15%
Grade: n/a
The Nationals' trades were all subtractions, but we'll list Washington here to note the fact that alone among the sellers, the Nationals' playoff odds remain within the boundaries of possibility. That's not to say Mike Rizzo should have added, because clearly something was not right with the roster as it stood.