This is the most interesting edition of the Stock Watch of the season. Early August is it. The playoff race has come into focus, and each team's in-season maneuvering is, generally speaking, complete.
There have been plenty of trade-deadline postmortems floating about, so I want to take a more holistic approach while presenting this month's Watch. There are the usual benchmarks: updated win forecasts and playoff odds. But this time around, I've inserted a little bit of Excel code that looks at how the roster rating for each team has changed since Opening Day.
To explain, at the beginning of the season, a team's roster rating is simply its win forecast. We know the roster, we know the individual player forecasts, and this is how it all adds up. As the season progresses, those original projections are moved and jostled by actual results (damned reality). And of course, the rosters themselves change, as players get hurt, traded or waived. So goes the endless pseudo-life cycle of professional baseball.
With the deadline behind us, check out how each team's 162-game, roster-based projection has changed since the season began. In many cases, you should also check how real-life results have overwhelmed those mathematical projections. It's all good. It's why we play the games.
Contenders
Current win forecast: 110.4 (Change from July: +8.0)
Roster change since Opening Day: 1.6 | Rank: 9
Current playoff probability: 100.0% (up 4%)
Current championship probability: 25.0%
The scary thing about the Red Sox is that they are still fighting to get healthy. As of today, they are winning an average of 110.4 games in my simulations. Only six teams have won 110 games in a season. The Red Sox's franchise record is 105, set in 1912, the year Fenway Park opened. Maybe being fully healthy is a bad thing? Nah. Once October comes around, no matter how many wins Boston ends up with, it all rolls back to zero. The Sox will want Ian Kinsler, Chris Sale, Rafael Devers & Co. to be at full strength.
Current win forecast: 102.6 (Change from July: -4.1)
Roster change since Opening Day: 1.4 | Rank: 11
Current playoff probability: 98.8% (up 2.8%)
Current championship probability: 21.2%
Speaking of health, the Astros don't have much of it at the moment. As such, the season has taken a surprising turn over the past couple of weeks. Suddenly, it's Boston, not Houston, that rates as the favorite to win it all. But the Astros have plenty of time to set things right before October comes around.
Current win forecast: 99.4 (Change from July: -4.5)
Roster change since Opening Day: 0.6 | Rank: 15
Current playoff probability: 96.6% (up 2.1%)
Current championship probability: 6.4%
Through June 9, the Yankees were on pace to win 113 games. Their run differential, prorated to 162 games, was that of a 104-win team. That "luck" gap was one of the biggest in baseball, and it has since shrunk with each passing week. Now the Yankees are forecast to win 99 games. Their run differential, pushed to a decimal, is that of a 99.5 win team. This is why we fixate on run differentials.
Current win forecast: 94.0 (Change from July: +8.4)
Roster change since Opening Day: 3.1 | Rank: 5
Current playoff probability: 80.3% (up 61.3%)
Current championship probability: 2.4%
Is it really possible for a team to raise its playoff odds by 61 percent three months into a season? Apparently so. It's time for a Moneyball sequel.
Current win forecast: 92.7 (Change from July: -0.3)
Roster change since Opening Day: 2.1 | Rank: 6
Current playoff probability: 96.5% (up 1.7%)
Current championship probability: 10.2%
With their bullpen holes seemingly patched with the July acquisitions of Adam Cimber and Brad Hand, the Indians' run prevention has been trending from average to elite. On July 24, the Indians were on pace to allow 12 runs fewer than the big league average. That mark is up to 49. With a disproportionate number of games left against weak AL Central offense, the Indians should end up as one of the AL's stingiest pitching and defense combos.
Current win forecast: 92.5 (Change from July: +1.3)
Roster change since Opening Day: 1.3 | Rank: 12
Current playoff probability: 81.7% (up 1%)
Current championship probability: 9.8%
It isn't reflected here, but Chicago has a 23.8 percent shot at the NL pennant as of today. That's the highest figure in the league, but the Dodgers (23.1 percent) are right on the Cubs' heels, and Milwaukee and Philadelphia are both in double digits. This will be an interesting autumn in the Senior Circuit.
Current win forecast: 91.2 (Change from July: -1.1)
Roster change since Opening Day: 1.6 | Rank: 10
Current playoff probability: 73.0% (up 4.8%)
Current championship probability: 3.2%
The Brewers' metrics appeared to be on the wane before their splashy July. Now with an in-season injection worth 1.6 wins over the Opening Day forecast, the Brewers are poised to pressure the Cubs all the way to the finish line. An August trade for a starter would still help -- a lot.
Current win forecast: 91.0 (Change from July: +3.3)
Roster change since Opening Day: 1.2 | Rank: 13
Current playoff probability: 76.3% (up 11.2%)
Current championship probability: 8.9%
The Dodgers' improved in-season forecast might seem modest for a team that added big deadline prize Manny Machado. However, while Machado boosted the Dodgers' fortunes a good deal, when compared to the team's Opening Day outlook, the effect is more marginal. Why? That projection included Corey Seager.
Current win forecast: 90.6 (Change from July: +4.4)
Roster change since Opening Day: 4.4 | Rank: 3
Current playoff probability: 70.0% (up 16.4%)
Current championship probability: 3.7%
The Phillies' in-season pickups of Asdrubal Cabrera and Wilson Ramos have helped, but not as much as Philly's in-house improvement. Philadelphia still has a so-so run differential, but in every other respect, things are trending in the right direction.
Current win forecast: 89.3 (Change from July: +0.3)
Roster change since Opening Day: 4.5 | Rank: 2
Current playoff probability: 61.2% (down 17.1%)
Current championship probability: 3.1%
Almost every Atlanta regular has outstripped his preseason projection. That's only good if it lasts. One player on the roster with a shortfall is July pickup Kevin Gausman. Another is Gausman's new rotationmate, Julio Teheran. In other words, a big key to Atlanta's finish will be for the starting pitchers to pick up the slack for an almost inevitable regression elsewhere on the roster.
Current win forecast: 87.0 (Change from July: -2.5)
Roster change since Opening Day: 0.4 | Rank: 16
Current playoff probability: 43.4% (down 2.3%)
Current championship probability: 2.7%
The Diamondbacks seem very proud of a bullpen that added Jake Diekman, Brad Ziegler and Matt Andriese in July. The names are good, but a return to form for Archie Bradley would be even better.
Current win forecast: 86.9 (Change from July: -5.6)
Roster change since Opening Day: 2.0 | Rank: 7
Current playoff probability: 20.2% (down 49.2%)
Current championship probability: 0.2%
Through July 14, the Mariners were 20 games over .500 with a run differential of minus-1. One of these things is not like the other. Give GM Jerry Dipoto credit for staying aggressive leading up to the deadline -- not that Dipoto could behave in any other way.
Current win forecast: 86.1 (Change from July: -0.4)
Roster change since Opening Day: -3.2 | Rank: 27
Current playoff probability: 37.7% (up 3%)
Current championship probability: 2.0%
From May 30 to July 26, the Nationals were scoring runs at a rate below the big league average. On July 27, they beat Miami 9-1 to push above that mark. Now they are on pace to finish 25 runs above the scoring average. Good timing.
Current win forecast: 84.3 (Change from July: +6.6)
Roster change since Opening Day: 1.9 | Rank: 8
Current playoff probability: 23.5% (up 9.8%)
Current championship probability: 0.6%
Colorado is second in rotation WAR and third at both third base (Nolan Arenado) and shortstop (Trevor Story). The Rockies are in the bottom 10 everywhere else. It's an odd formula for success, but the Rockies are firmly in the playoff chase.
Current win forecast: 84.1 (Change from July: +0.3)
Roster change since Opening Day: -2.3 | Rank: 25
Current playoff probability: 20.6% (down 3.3%)
Current championship probability: 0.5%
Matt Carpenter, on the strength of his second recent hot streak, leads all NL position players in fWAR. He's an MVP candidate, folks. Deal with it.
Current win forecast: 80.5 (Change from July: +3.7)
Roster change since Opening Day: 5.4 | Rank: 1
Current playoff probability: 6.8% (up 0.5%)
Current championship probability: 0.1%
The Pirates have the most improved roster in baseball since the season began. Much of that is how much the forecast likes Chris Archer and, to a lesser extent, Keone Kela, both pitchers added in July. But some of that is due to the emergence of in-house talent in larger roles than expected: Trevor Williams, Edgar Santana, Richard Rodriguez and preseason addition Corey Dickerson. Either way, Pittsburgh remains velcro-stuck to mediocrity.
Also-rans
Current win forecast: 80.3 (Change from July: -0.5)
Roster change since Opening Day: -1.1 | Rank: 21
Current playoff probability: 5.9% (down 17.3%)
Current championship probability: 0.0%
Meh. Really, though, could it have turned out any other way?
Current win forecast: 79.9 (Change from July: -1.5)
Roster change since Opening Day: -1.3 | Rank: 23
Current playoff probability: 1.9% (down 8.3%)
Current championship probability: 0.0%
It's a brand-new thing, so we still have to parse all of this out, but right now it feels like the issue with a full-season version of the 2018 Rays' plan for pitching staff construction is holding it together for six months. There are just so many moving parts. It certainly worked for a while. At the end of games on July 11, Tampa Bay was on pace to allow 111 runs fewer than average. That figure has dwindled to 42.
Current win forecast: 79.1 (Change from July: -2.7)
Roster change since Opening Day: -12.2 | Rank: 30
Current playoff probability: 1.3% (down 9.2%)
Current championship probability: 0.0%
The Angels' forecast has been torpedoed by injuries, which led to a deadline status as sellers. Once again, we're left to ask how a team with Mike Trout could be so bland, only now we have to toss Shohei Ohtani into the mix.
Current win forecast: 78.7 (Change from July: +1.8)
Roster change since Opening Day: -2.0 | Rank: 24
Current playoff probability: 4.4% (down 1.3%)
Current championship probability: 0.0%
Really, there wasn't anything wrong with the Twins' 2018 plan. This year's roster was built with the idea that players such as Brian Dozier, Byron Buxton, Ervin Santana and Miguel Sano would be pillars. They were not. It has simply been too much for Minnesota to overcome.
Current win forecast: 75.8 (Change from July: -3.2)
Roster change since Opening Day: -3.9 | Rank: 28
Current playoff probability: 0.1% (down 2.5%)
Current championship probability: 0.0%
It wasn't ridiculous for the Blue Jays to push for contention this season. Nor was it ridiculous for the front office to pull the plug in July. Still, the rest of the season is hard to get revved up for. This is a very transitional roster.
Current win forecast: 72.3 (Change from July: +0.0)
Roster change since Opening Day: 0.4 | Rank: 17
Current playoff probability: 0.1% (down 5.1%)
Current championship probability: 0.0%
It must be a screaming match in the Reds clubhouse as guys argue about who gets to bat behind Joey Votto. The lucky winner this year has been Eugenio Suarez, who hit after Votto and Scooter Gennett for much of the season and has batted directly after Votto the past few weeks. No NL player has come to bat more often with runners on base. Not surprisingly, Suarez is battling Chicago's Javier Baez for tops in RBIs in the league. Baez, by the way, has come to bat the second-most times with runners on base.
Current win forecast: 71.4 (Change from July: -1.3)
Roster change since Opening Day: 0.0 | Rank: 18
Current playoff probability: 0.0% (down 0.9%)
Current championship probability: 0.0%
During a docile season in Texas, Rougned Odor has given Rangers fans plenty of reasons to hope he's on the verge of stardom. An all-or-nothing hitter for most of his career, Odor has suddenly discovered the gospel of plate discipline; he has a .453 OBP since the All-Star break.
Current win forecast: 67.4 (Change from July: -2.9)
Roster change since Opening Day: -0.7 | Rank: 20
Current playoff probability: 0.0% (down 0.9%)
Current championship probability: 0.0%
It'll be over soon, Mets fans.
Current win forecast: 66.5 (Change from July: +0.4)
Roster change since Opening Day: -1.2 | Rank: 22
Current playoff probability: 0.0% (down 0.5%)
Current championship probability: 0.0%
The rebuilding Tigers flirted with not being terrible enough, going 36-37 through June 17. No worries. Since then, Detroit has gone 11-29.
Current win forecast: 64.2 (Change from July: -0.1)
Roster change since Opening Day: 4.2 | Rank: 4
Current playoff probability: 0.0% (down 0.1%)
Current championship probability: 0.0%
Speaking of not being terrible enough, the Marlins have the game's most anonymous roster, but they've been competitive for most of the season, though things seem to be coming apart lately. Don't misunderstand: It's a bad team, but there are worse teams around, such as Kansas City and Baltimore, and that's a surprise.
Current win forecast: 63.7 (Change from July: -3.8)
Roster change since Opening Day: 1.1 | Rank: 14
Current playoff probability: 0.0% (down 0.4%)
Current championship probability: 0.0%
This has been a season to bide one's time in San Diego, which would be fine if they hadn't thrown a mint at Eric Hosmer in the offseason. His intangibles are great. His below-replacement production is not. Hosmer has been an every-other-year performer for much of his career, and if the Padres are hoping to push into contention by next season, that pattern needs to hold up. There is no surplus value in being below replacement.
Current win forecast: 62.2 (Change from July: +0.2)
Roster change since Opening Day: 0.0 | Rank: 19
Current playoff probability: 0.0% (up 0%)
Current championship probability: 0.0%
The White Sox traded Joakim Soria, then spent the rest of the deadline flicking Hawk Harrelson bobblehead dolls, comparing the wobble to the real thing. What else is there to do but hang in the parking lot across 35th Street in a lawn chair near home plate from old Comiskey and wait for top prospects Eloy Jimenez and Michael Kopech to show up?
Current win forecast: 53.1 (Change from July: -2.0)
Roster change since Opening Day: -7.0 | Rank: 29
Current playoff probability: 0.0% (down 0%)
Current championship probability: 0.0%
Below-replacement figures show up in red on my depth charts. There is a lot of red on the Orioles' current depth chart.
Current win forecast: 52.9 (Change from July: -2.1)
Roster change since Opening Day: -2.6 | Rank: 26
Current playoff probability: 0.0% (down 0%)
Current championship probability: 0.0%
The Royals are awful, but this season has had its positives. Whit Merrifield is headed for a 5-WAR season, though at 29, he probably should have been traded. Before he was injured, Jorge Soler made strides at the plate. Brad Keller, a Rule 5 pickup, looks like a big leaguer. These are the kind of things Kansas City fans have to root for right now.