Obviously, many things went right for the Astros en route to winning the World Series last year. The bullpen, most of the time, was reliable. The starting rotation was one of the best. The front office pulled off an 11th-hour trade for Justin Verlander. But it was their offense that qualified as historic.
My offensive statistic of choice is wRC+, or weighted runs created plus. It puts everything on a scale where 100 is average, and something higher than that is better than average. Last season's Astros finished with a team wRC+ of 121, which means they hit 21 percent better than the average offense -- the highest mark for any team since the 1931 Yankees (124 wRC+). It was the fourth-highest mark for any team since the turn of the previous century. The Astros could pitch, but more than anything else, the Astros could hit.
Of course, it's a new year with new rosters. The Astros have returned a similar team, but do they again feature the best-hitting lineup? I'm ranking lineups based on what I expect players to do from this point forward. I've considered both performances to date and rest-of-season projections. There's no exact formula, but it's not just a bunch of gut feelings. That out of the way, let's go 1 through 30 -- and get into why the Astros aren't the No. 1 team anymore.
1. New York Yankees: I can't imagine too many of you are surprised by this. Aaron Judge is showing zero signs of a sophomore slump. He's supported by both Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez, and Didi Gregorius has blossomed into one of the best hitters at his position. Maybe the best way to say it is this: The Yankees' biggest vulnerability has been Neil Walker, and he'll lose playing time once Greg Bird returns. New York's lineup is a juggernaut.
2. Houston Astros: The really good players -- for the most part, they're still really good players. There's no reason to doubt the Astros' long-term core here. They're just a little unsettled. They could improve on Evan Gattis at DH. They could probably improve on Yuli Gurriel as their first baseman. And the step back from Marwin Gonzalez has shown they could still use another outfielder. That outfielder is going to be Kyle Tucker, and he's going to be in Houston soon. This is still very much a dangerous lineup.
3. Boston Red Sox: The idea was that J.D. Martinez would provide a jolt, but based on expected production via Statcast, two of baseball's five most improved hitters are Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts. The impending return of Dustin Pedroia is only going to boost Boston's depth. All that's really holding the Red Sox back is underwhelming offense out of center field and catcher. From those positions, they'll be happy with defense. The middle of the lineup is scary enough.
4. Chicago Cubs: I don't think I've ever once worried about Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rizzo is showing his recent signs of life. That was already expected to be the dynamic duo, but Kyle Schwarber is also becoming a regular threat, having worked to level his swing. And then you get to talk about the Cubs' depth. Addison Russell not hitting enough? There's Javier Baez. Ian Happ not hitting enough? There's Albert Almora Jr. This isn't a lineup that gives you a break. Even early, pre-concussion Jason Heyward was making some quality contact.
5. Los Angeles Angels: So, Mike Trout is the best player in baseball. He's also probably the best hitter in baseball. But in case you've missed it, Shohei Ohtani has a 182 wRC+; Trout is at 191. Ohtani ranks fourth among all hitters with at least 70 plate appearances. As far as I'm concerned, Ohtani has proved his ability, as he has somehow managed to meet the impossible hype. Andrelton Simmons and Justin Upton provide good support, and I can't imagine that Kole Calhoun could stay this bad. If he does, that only opens the door for the fascinating Jabari Blash. Look him up -- he'll make a fan of you, too.
6. Washington Nationals: Looking at non-pitchers, the Nationals have a top-10 wRC+, and they haven't had Daniel Murphy. They've barely had Adam Eaton, and for a little while they were without Anthony Rendon. But Rendon is back, Murphy will be back soon and Eaton will be back later. I'm sure Matt Adams is going to cool off, but he has helped the Nationals survive. Before too long this team should again look like the class of the division. I haven't even had to mention Bryce Harper.
7. Los Angeles Dodgers: You might not believe me, but the Dodgers also have an above-average wRC+. It feels like they've been a catastrophe, but it hasn't been that bad, and now Justin Turner is back. Ditto Logan Forsythe, for whatever that matters. There's no way to gloss over the significance of losing someone like Corey Seager, and I'm sure some exasperated fans are tired of hearing about the Dodgers' impressive depth, but the Dodgers do have impressive depth. They can hit, and they're going to hit.
8. St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals are in kind of a funny spot. Maybe the three biggest weaknesses have been Marcell Ozuna, Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler. Last year those three players posted wRC+ marks of 142, 123 and 121, respectively. You have to believe in the track record, which then makes the lineup here rather fearsome. Tommy Pham hasn't dropped off one bit, and if you'd like to talk about Paul DeJong for a moment, after seeming overaggressive last year, he has dropped his swing rate by 10 percentage points.
9. Cleveland Indians: I know, relative to expectations, the Indians have underwhelmed. But Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor certainly haven't, and Michael Brantley is back to showing his fantastic bat-to-ball skills. Yonder Alonso deserves to have a better batting line, and I'm not yet worried about Edwin Encarnacion. While the Indians have room for improvement, a month from now much of the slow start will have been forgotten.
10. Atlanta Braves: Nine Braves players have batted at least 75 times. Only one of them has a below-average batting line -- Ender Inciarte. In all fairness, certain players are bound to regress. Ronald Acuna Jr. already has cooled off after a scorching start. But this batting order doesn't have any easy outs. Ozzie Albies has become an unbelievable support for Freddie Freeman, and as a hidden fun fact, since the start of last season, Braves catchers are fourth among MLB backstops in wRC+.
11. Oakland Athletics: Sophomore slump for Matt Olson? Bit of a frustrating slump for Matt Chapman? No worries -- enter a rejuvenated Jonathan Lucroy and a back-on-the-radar Mark Canha, and Jed Lowrie has baseball's 15th-best wRC+. The A's had a strong offense down the stretch a season ago, and they brought almost everyone back. They don't boast any superstars, but what they have instead are eight or nine solid threats.
12. Toronto Blue Jays: Credit the Jays for chugging along despite getting next to nothing from Kendrys Morales, Devon Travis, Troy Tulowitzki and Randal Grichuk. No one would be happy to have that many voids, but Yangervis Solarte is looking like a genius addition. The big secret might be Teoscar Hernandez, the return last July from the Astros for Francisco Liriano; he's currently slugging .537. Even at the time, Hernandez looked like a steal. Now he's looking like a borderline All-Star.
13. Minnesota Twins: For an above-average lineup, the Twins might be the most anonymous. People know Joe Mauer. People know Byron Buxton, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano and Logan Morrison. But relatively few people are so aware of guys like Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar and Max Kepler. Those have been three of the four best hitters on the team. It can be hard to trust players with shorter track records, but Rosario has carried over his gains from 2017. The Twins can actually hit, in a way that would drive a pitcher crazy.
14. San Francisco Giants: The guys who are supposed to hit have hit. The question marks have been the question marks. Hunter Pence wasn't showing any signs of shrugging off his 2017. I was encouraged by what I saw from Mac Williamson, but then he sustained a concussion. Center field is still kind of waiting on Steven Duggar to arrive. I think the Giants are one player short. Maybe that'll be Duggar. Maybe that'll be a healthy Williamson. I don't think you can count on either.
15. Pittsburgh Pirates: Considering everyone accused them of blowing it up, the Pirates have been particularly interesting. They've played really good baseball, and the lineup hasn't too badly missed Andrew McCutchen. The club has seemingly made a complete hitter out of Tampa Bay castoff Corey Dickerson, and Francisco Cervelli is hitting like he has never hit before. Throw in a rebuilt Gregory Polanco and a promising Colin Moran, and you have the makings of another wild-card contender. This is exactly what the Pirates needed after an offseason of terrible PR.
16. New York Mets: The Mets should have a better lineup than this. And on true talent, they probably do have a better lineup than this. But I'm worried about Michael Conforto, who hasn't looked right since returning ahead of schedule from shoulder surgery. Yeah, it helps to have Brandon Nimmo around because Nimmo is a quality bat, but Conforto is critical to this team, and it might just take him a while to get all the way back to 100 percent. The Mets have gotten worse behind the plate, and they haven't seen real progress from Amed Rosario. The lineup is fine, but I wouldn't call it a strength.
17. Philadelphia Phillies: I'm a believer in what the Phillies have going on. They're headed in the right direction, and they're a real wild-card threat this season. But offensively speaking, there's some frustration. I'm not worried about Carlos Santana; he should be fine. But we've already seen growing pains from Scott Kingery, J.P. Crawford, Nick Williams and Jorge Alfaro. If it's true that Maikel Franco now has a swing and approach that work for him, that's tremendous. This offense just doesn't look complete yet.
18. Seattle Mariners: Offense was supposed to help keep the Mariners afloat, somewhere on the periphery of the race. The offense still isn't bad, and I'm a big fan of Mitch Haniger, but you can't replace Robinson Cano with Gordon Beckham and expect to come out fine on the other side. I don't love what's happening in left field, and I'm skeptical of what's happening at first base. Cano's absence leaves an unfillable void.
19. Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers pulled off a stunning one-two punch when they landed Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich, and those two players have been exactly what they were supposed to be. But if we're just going to focus on offense, then catcher, shortstop and second base all now look like question marks. The Brewers have the pieces to acquire some midseason improvement; I'd expect them to do that.
20. Baltimore Orioles: I'm not factoring in the overwhelming likelihood that the Orioles will trade Manny Machado. On the one hand, you could see it as a good thing that two of their best hitters have been Danny Valencia and Pedro Alvarez. On the other hand, much of the rest has been ugly, and the less said about Chris Davis' batting line, the better. The Orioles are going to get better, and they're going to hit their home runs. Between the home runs, though, there are going to be so many outs.
21. Arizona Diamondbacks: Let me say this for the Diamondbacks' position players: As a team, they rank second in baseball in defensive runs saved, and first in baseball in ultimate zone rating. This is a roster stocked with ball-catchers. It's just not stocked with many hitters. I'm still not very concerned about Paul Goldschmidt's slump, and I have plenty of trust in A.J. Pollock. I'm just not sold on the rest of the support, and Pollock will be sidelined for at least the next month. By top-end talent, the Diamondbacks are dangerous, but there's little depth.
22. Texas Rangers: If nothing else, it looks like we could be seeing the first true breakout from Nomar Mazara, who is still just 23 years old. On an all-around basis, it doesn't get much more exciting than Delino DeShields. Throw in the constantly dangerous Joey Gallo. It just gets a lot thinner from there, especially given that Adrian Beltre appears at the point where he's frequently dogged by some nagging injury. The player I'm watching for is Jurickson Profar. On occasion, he has put a charge into a ball. If he can play well down the stretch, at least that should be some consolation for a team approaching a rebuild.
23. Cincinnati Reds: It seems like only yesterday that Joey Votto was mired in a slump, but now he has a .414 OBP. Like I've always said: The very last player you should worry about is Joey Votto. Eugenio Suarez looks good after a rapid recovery from injury. There are the makings of a lineup here, and I can't wait to see Nick Senzel. But it's hard to get past playing Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza every day.
24. Chicago White Sox: Skipping right past the obviously good Jose Abreu, I'd like to give credit to Matt Davidson for seemingly figuring it out at the major league level. After coming into the year as perhaps baseball's worst regular DH, Davidson has taken a huge step forward by cutting his out-of-zone swing rate by 12 percentage points. Add in an exciting -- if strikeout-prone -- Yoan Moncada. It's the rest that's forgettable. The White Sox say they're not going to rush Eloy Jimenez. They could have a hard time fighting that temptation.
25. San Diego Padres: Eric Hosmer is doing his job, and this would be so much worse without him. Wil Myers should be healthy again before long, and I like the early show put on by Franchy Cordero, who's like a less-heralded outfield version of Moncada. Cordero has trimmed 10 points off his strikeout rate. You can see how things are coming along, with Franmil Reyes recently promoted and with Luis Urias one level below. But for the moment, this remains an incomplete lineup.
26. Colorado Rockies: The Rockies nearly got perfect-gamed by Jordan Lyles, but settled for being shut out. While one game is never representative of the bigger picture, this lineup is not good. Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon are fantastic and DJ LeMahieu and Trevor Story are perfectly fine. I just don't know where the rest of the hitting comes from. The Carlos Gonzalez bounce-back hasn't taken place, and David Dahl has been a mixed bag of results. I guess he's the most likely player to emerge, given that Ian Desmond still looks like a wreck.
27. Tampa Bay Rays: At this writing, the Rays have a better-than-average team batting line. Yet they also have the second-highest team BABIP, and the second-fewest team home runs. I don't think that combination bodes well. As always, the Rays try to be greater than the sum of their parts. They're better than they're given credit for, but hitting isn't a strength.
28. Detroit Tigers: They've given Leonys Martin a chance to get back on the radar, and given Jeimer Candelario and Niko Goodrum a chance to emerge. JaCoby Jones has trimmed his strikeout rate by an improbable 16 points. Nicholas Castellanos is still hitting line dives to every field. So even ignoring Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, there are players here to follow. They're more interesting than I thought they would be, but it's still going to be a long process.
29. Kansas City Royals: If you squint, you can spot a couple comeback stories. Jorge Soler is looking like the player the Royals thought they were acquiring. Alex Gordon is showing signs of life after consecutive down seasons. With Mike Moustakas, Whit Merrifield and Salvador Perez, that's most of an actual lineup. Most. But you don't want to know about anyone else.
30. Miami Marlins: I initially tabbed Lewis Brinson as the most important player on the roster. He's a top prospect getting the chance to play just about every day, and if he could show that he belonged, that might allow Marlins fans to buy into the rebuild. But Brinson is batting .172 with a .529 OPS. That's not good enough for the majors. J.T. Realmuto is great and Justin Bour is good, but the fact that Brinson has been so lousy only makes this year hurt even more.