With a quarter of the major league season complete, teams are beginning to separate themselves as contenders and noncontenders, if they had not already committed to rebuilding, or "tanking," in the offseason.
Let's examine the 10 greatest needs among the clubs with 20 percent or greater odds of making the playoffs entering Sunday, according to FanGraphs.
1. The Colorado Rockies (29.4 percent playoff odds) need corner help. According to Baseball Reference-version WAR, the Rockies rank 25th in WAR produced by right fielders (minus-0.3), 28th in left-field WAR (minus-0.4) and last at first base (minus-1.2). This is not a small-sample issue. These are positions that were in need and remain in need.
The Rockies got a weighted runs created (wRC+) mark of 79 from their right fielders last season -- 100 wRC+ is league average -- largely due to Carlos Gonzalez's poor season. They nevertheless brought Gonzalez back on a one-year deal, and he is again struggling. The Rockies ranked 29th among first basemen (87 wRC+) last season. The Rockies signed Ian Desmond to play first base last season, and he struggled, producing a 69 wRC+, which means he was 31 percent below league average when adjusting for the ballpark and scoring environment. This season? He has been historically poor, hitting .175/.219/.365 as his zone contact rate has dropped and his ground ball rate has spiked. He has produced 38 wRC+, which is essentially a pitcher's bat playing at a corner position. David Dahl has not been able to take ownership of a position, as his bat has slumped. In left field, Gerardo Parra hasn't hit.
The Rockies were a wild-card team last year and are contending again in the NL West. They knew these were positions of need and did little to address them. The Rockies were projected by FanGraphs to rank 27th in first-base production (1.0 WAR), 28th among right fielders (0.3) and 30th among left fielders (minus-0.4) entering the season. The good news? Those should be among the easiest positions to fill, as corner bats such as Logan Morrison and Yonder Alonso were modestly valued by the industry in free agency. Targeting the corner players of teams already deep in rebuilds, such as Miami first baseman Justin Bour or White Sox corner bat Matt Davidson, could help fill these voids at relatively affordable returns.
2. The Cleveland Indians (91.5 percent playoff odds) need to rebuild the bridge in their bullpen: Gone are former contributors such as Bryan Shaw (Rockies) and Joe Smith (Astros), who helped form a stable bridge to the back of the bullpen. Danny Salazar has had a setback in his rehab and might not be able to help much in the rotation or the bullpen. Zach McAllister has never been able to develop a quality secondary pitch and has struggled in high-leverage situations. Ground ball specialist Dan Otero does not have the stuff to get away with elevated mistakes. Nick Goody is on the DL. The Indians currently rank 28th in bullpen ERA (5.36).
This team needs bullpen help to better bridge games from the rotation to Andrew Miller and Cody Allen at the back of the bullpen. Moreover, Indians manager Terry Francona has pushed Allen early this season. Allen threw 114 pitches the third week of May, including a 41-pitch outing. He looked fatigued by the end of the series in New York, when he blew a ninth-inning lead. Three of the Indians' starters rank in the top 15 in pitches per start. Taking all of that in, the Indians are in danger of exhausting their most trusted options early this season.
The Indians can afford a sluggish start thanks to the poor AL Central, but if the club is to play deep into October and compete against the elite AL clubs, it could use a bullpen upgrade. Whom might the Indians call? The Padres are falling far out of the NL West race and have a talented bullpen. Brad Hand and Kirby Yates are two of the better relievers in the game. While Hand is well-known, Yates is one of the most underrated arms around. Since the start of last season, his 12.6 K/9 ranks 15th among relievers. San Diego also has two intriguing submarine-style arms in Kazuhisa Makita and Phil Maton.
3. Trading for Manny Machado is a fit for the New York Mets (27.8 percent playoff odds): The Orioles ought to deal Manny Machado before he walks for only draft-pick compensation, and no team has a need at shortstop like the Mets do. In a tight NL East in which the top four teams were separated by three games entering Sunday, Machado could fill one of the weakest areas among all contenders with super-star production. The net difference could swing the division or wild-card race in favor of the Mets. Mets shortstops are currently slashing .214/.247/.292 and have been worth minus-0.5 bWAR -- the worst shortstop production in baseball. Machado is slashing .342/.426/.658 and has already produced 2.3 WAR. Trading for Machado could win the NL East for the Mets.
4. The Los Angeles Angels (46 percent playoff odds) need more in the outfield. Really! No club ought to be more motivated to improve an area of weakness than the Angels, as they appear to be a playoff bubble team.
The Angels have the game's best player in Mike Trout. Shohei Ohtani has lived up to the hype as a pitcher and exceeded expectations as a part-time hitter. Thanks to Andrelton Simmons, the Angels also lead baseball in shortstop WAR. The Angels lead the AL with 111 wRC+ as a team.
While the Angels could use more rotation help as well, the club ranks 30th in right-field production to date. Kole Calhoun has struggled, batting .165 with one homer. Like the Rockies, the Angels ought to be in search of corner help. The Mets have a surplus of outfielders, and it might be worth giving them a call.
5. The Boston Red Sox (97.8 percent playoff odds) should call the Marlins in search of catching help: The catching tandem of Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez ranks last in Baseball Reference and FanGraphs WAR. Leon, now 29 years old, has been a replacement-level player since his excellent 2016 campaign. Vazquez is at least an above-average pitch framer when he isn't hitting -- and right now, he's not hitting, batting .186.
The Red Sox could use an upgrade to their catching depth chart. Blake Swihart's prospects have diminished. While Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto has been connected to about every team with a catching need, for the Red Sox he'd provide an upgrade in what figures to be a tightly contested division race (as things stand now, the Red Sox have 43.6 percent odds to win the division). The difference between the Marlins' and Red Sox's catchers is about 1.5 wins. That might be the difference between winning a division and facing sudden death in a wild-card game.
6. It's time for the Chicago Cubs (90.7 percent playoff odds) to break up their surplus of hitters and add pitching. According to FanGraphs WAR, the Cubs (2.3 WAR) rank 23rd in total pitching production, which is last among contenders. The Cubs have not developed their own pitching, entering the season last in WAR from drafted-and-developed pitchers since Theo Epstein took over baseball operations, according to research by The Athletic. The Cubs have focused on using their premium draft picks on position players such as Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Albert Almora, Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ. The Cubs have largely built their staff through free agency (Jon Lester, Yu Darvish and Tyler Chatwood) and trades (Jose Quintana). Although Darvish figures to turn things around, the Cubs need as many impact arms as possible to drive deep into October. Chatwood's command continues to be an issue; ditto for Justin Wilson. Lester, Brandon Morrow and Quintana have been far from dominant. The Cubs probably need another arm (or two), and they ought to trade from their position-player surplus.
7. The Milwaukee Brewers (20.7 percent playoff odds) might have a hidden ace: Josh Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game early this season. Hader has used his dynamic fastball and unusual arm slot and deception to average 18.8 strikeouts per nine with just 2.5 walks. However, he's on pace to throw fewer than 100 innings in a relief role. Hader was a starting pitcher in the minor leagues, he has been used often in multi-inning outings, and the Brewers are getting a 4.73 FIP from their rotation so far. The Brewers might have a hidden ace in their bullpen, and they might want to find out, as it is cheaper to fill voids in relief than in the rotation. One way to add value is to expand players' roles.
8. Walker Buehler could be a Josh Hader for the Los Angeles Dodgers (46.9 percent playoff odds): The Dodgers' slow start has presented real problems. Entering the season as heavy favorites in the NL West, their playoff odds have fallen to a coin flip. Stars such as Corey Seager (out for the season) and Clayton Kershaw litter the disabled list. The Dodgers have had to call upon top pitching prospect Walker Buehler to fill voids in the rotation, but the team's top glaring weakness entering the season -- the bullpen -- remains its weakest link.
Not only did the Dodgers not replace Brandon Morrow due to luxury-tax concerns, but also their returning relief arms have taken a step back, as the club ranks 28th in Baseball Reference relief WAR (minus-1.3). Buehler might be ready to impact in the rotation, but Hader has demonstrated that a young arm, if still in need of refinement to fit in the rotation, can provide a more immediate impact in the bullpen. Moreover, assuming the Dodgers' rotation eventually returns to health, Buehler could have more utility in the bullpen.
9. It's time for the Toronto Blue Jays (19.6 percent playoff odds) to start the Vlad Jr. Era: As great as the three-year deal for J.A. Happ has been for the Blue Jays, the three-year Kendrys Morales deal resides on the opposite end of the free-agency-outcome spectrum. Morales was a below-replacement level bat last season (minus-0.6 WAR), and he has been "worth" minus-0.8 WAR this season, slashing a feeble .146/.230/.270 as a DH. As a result, the Blue Jays have the worst DH production in the AL. Every win is critical, as they could very well be in contention for a wild card. To boost their offensive production, the Blue Jays ought to consider calling up the top hitting prospect in the game, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Although he is just 19 years, 1 month old, he's slashing .386/.440/.649 in Double-A entering Sunday. He is one of the best teenage bats of the 21st century.
10. The Pittsburgh Pirates (24.5 percent playoff odds) should give Richard Rodriguez a bigger role: Only 1 percent of minor league free agents signed in any particular offseason go on to produce 0.5 WAR or greater at the major league level the following season. Rodriguez has already done that, as he has emerged as one of the most dominant relievers, thanks to a high-spin fastball he elevates like few pitchers can. Per Statcast data, Rodriguez's fastball crosses the plate at 3.34 feet on average, which is the 19th-most elevated fastball in the sport. The Pirates ought to start trusting Rodriguez to a greater degree and place him in a more prominent bullpen role.