Although batting average might have given way to on-base percentage and slugging percentage and a whole host of advanced statistics, there's still something a little disconcerting about seeing a 1 as the first digit in a player's batting average more than a month into the season. There are quite a few former All-Stars below the Mendoza Line one-fifth of the way through 2018, but for many, bad luck has been the deciding factor, not eroding skills.
Here are some of the unluckiest hitters in the majors so far this season and what they should do, if anything, to help turn around their fortunes and regain their status as star players.
Anthony Rizzo: The Cubs' first baseman has gotten off to an awful start with a .190 average, a .268 on-base percentage and a meager .310 slugging percentage. That slugging percentage is a nearly 200-point drop from a season ago. For his career, Rizzo has gone for extra bases one out of every 10 plate appearances. This season, he has just four extra-base hits in 112 plate appearances. A trip to the disabled list for a bad back likely has negatively affected Rizzo's ability to hit the ball, but bad luck has played a part, as well.
For his career, when Rizzo has hit a line drive, the ball has dropped for a hit 69 percent of the time, and 29 percent of those hits have gone for extra bases. This season, only half of his line drives have dropped for hits, and none of those batted balls has gotten Rizzo past first base. Those hard-hit balls should be doing more damage. One aspect of Rizzo's game that isn't luck is his minuscule 4 percent walk rate. Rizzo has earned a walk 11 percent of the time throughout his career, so for him to truly rebound from this start, he's going to need to get on base via the walk at a much higher clip.
Matt Carpenter: Like Rizzo, Carpenter has an ugly batting average, at .152 on the season. Unlike the Cubs' first baseman, Carpenter has had very little trouble drawing walks, with an 18 percent walk rate that is fifth best in all of baseball. Carpenter still has a low slugging percentage thanks to hitting just three balls out of the park so far this season. After averaging 24 homers over the past three seasons, Carpenter is on pace for closer to half that in 2018. If Carpenter wants, he can blame that lack of homers on the weather. Every 10 degrees in temperature adds 2.5 feet in fly ball distance, and Carpenter could have used those extra few feet in the early going. He has hit seven fly balls that have made the warning track, for six outs and a double. He has had four batted balls where the expected home run percentage was greater than 50 percent based on the exit velocity and launch angle. If he had hit those balls in July instead of April, Carpenter's home run total would probably be double what it is now, with a healthy slugging percentage.
One concern for Carpenter right now is strikeouts. Carpenter is striking out in 26 percent of his plate appearances, which is a 25 percent increase over the previous three seasons. His swinging strike rate is up 50 percent from last season, and he is having trouble making contact with off-speed pitches out of the zone. Carpenter has long been a master of the strike zone, and a return to better pitch recognition would further erase the stain of this slow start.
Joey Votto: Continuing the theme of National League Central first basemen, the Reds slugger doesn't seem to be struggling at all. His .276/.404/.433 hitting line is about 40 percent above league average, and he's walking more than he's striking out. On the surface, there's nothing wrong with the 34-year-old who's still at the top of his game. What's scary for Votto opponents is that he could be hitting even better.
Based on Statcast's launch angle and exit velocity, Votto's expected batting average is .347, roughly 70 points higher than his current mark. Votto's weighted on-base average (wOBA) is currently a very good .379, placing him in the top quarter of hitters. However, based on the Statcast data, his expected wOBA is .464 so far this year. That mark is the third best in all of baseball, behind only Mookie Betts and Mike Trout. Votto's Statcast numbers usually end up very similar to his actual figures. While being very good is fine for most hitters, Votto has actually hit like the best hitter in the National League, and we should expect typically great production going forward.
Gary Sanchez: The Yankees backstop has a lot going for him right now. With nine homers, his .300-plus isolated slugging is one of the best in baseball. His 9 percent walk rate is solid, and a slight improvement over his first two years in the league. Even the 26 percent strikeout isn't too bad, given the walks and power. What's holding Sanchez back this season is the putrid .193 batting average. Sanchez is one of 18 qualified hitters with a batting average below .200. When factoring walks and power into the equation, those 18 batters are on average 40 percent worse than the average MLB hitter. Sanchez's power and patience have made him 10 percent better than average with the bat overall. If he could just get that batting average up, he'd be the offensive force the Yankees have seen since he reached the majors.
Sanchez has gotten solid results from his line drives, but he has suffered the most on the batted balls that are closer to a 50-50 shot at becoming a hit. Batted balls expected to be a hit between 20-60 percent of the time generally get a batter on base 36 percent of the time. Sanchez has reached base just 17 percent of the time this season, costing him about five hits and more than 40 points in batting average. That might not seem like a lot of hits, but this early in the season, a few here and there can make a big difference in a batter's overall line. If there's one more area Sanchez could target for improvement, it would be reducing the number of infield flies. Nearly one in five of his fly balls stays on the infield, and if he could square up a few more of those, his batting average, and maybe even his power numbers, could get even higher.
Jackie Bradley Jr.: Since breaking out in 2016 with 26 homers, a .349 OBP and a 5.3 WAR season thanks to the good baserunning and defense he also brings to the table, the Red Sox center fielder has been a bit of a disappointment. As the rest of baseball saw a continued power surge last season, Bradley went the opposite direction, losing about 60 points of isolated slugging, which rendered him a below-average batter. Defense and baserunning still meant he was at least an average contributor, but he has gone further downhill in the early going this season. Bradley's isolated slugging has dropped another 60 points to fall below .100, and he has just six extra-base hits all season.
With no average and no power, Bradley has been one of the worst hitters in all of baseball. If you're looking for optimism, there isn't much to offer. If you're searching for a sort-of-OK outlook, then know that the 28-year-old lefty looks about as good as he was last year. His plate-discipline numbers are pretty similar, as is his line-drive rate. He's hitting the ball too much on the ground, but he also has seen five outs go at least 349 feet. It's not much, but, with neutral luck, Bradley would be the same below-average hitter, but overall average player, he was last season.