Especially in April and May, much of baseball fandom comes down to recognizing and appreciating what's shiny and new. We're forever on the hunt for the best new rookies or the most improved young players. Shohei Ohtani is already one of the most compelling players to appear in the majors in decades. There's a national conversation about how good Didi Gregorius actually is. The Braves are more exciting than they've been in a while because of an improving Ozzie Albies and an emerging Ronald Acuna Jr.
Fans are wired to think in terms of player ceilings. Every young player is trying to be as good as he possibly can, and we all closely monitor his progress. In some ways we're addicted to the concept of players on the upswing. There's less interest in players who appear to be post-ceiling. And there's less interest in players who can't get to their ceiling. Fans are inclined to believe in everyone, until they've simply had enough. Then it's just a matter of replacing disappointing players with new ones with potential.
In general, that's sensible enough. When a player's career looks as if it has already had its best days, all that's really left is decline. But it's not only the youngest players who can improve. Sometimes veteran players pick themselves up off the mat. Maybe it's less exciting than improvement from some 24-year-old, but it might be more inspiring. And these cases can be excellent reminders that baseball careers don't always follow a normal trajectory.
With that in mind, let's identify five players who appear to be resurrecting their careers. These are players from whom little was expected. This isn't like Mookie Betts' power outbreak; it's one thing to be good when you're supposed to be. It's quite another to be good when most people around you have lost that faith. These five players look relevant again, and if I got to include a sixth, I would've given a shout to Jordan Zimmermann.
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers: I thought they were lying. I can't express how strongly I thought the Dodgers were lying back in the spring when they said Kemp was going to make the roster. I thought it was one last desperate attempt to gin up some league-wide interest in another partial salary dump. That's what Kemp had become by this juncture in his career -- a salary dump. I didn't think the Dodgers actually wanted to use him.
And, you know, maybe they didn't want to. But Kemp made the team, and Kemp has played. He showed up to camp in far better condition, and he has performed like a younger version of himself. I'm not wowed so much by the fact that Kemp has hit. Even last season, Kemp hit well at the start. But according to Statcast, the 2018 version of Kemp is running faster than he did and playing better defense than he had in recent years. Kemp was a five-tool player in his prime, but he slowed down considerably as weight and injuries mounted. To this point he has been able to turn back the clock. This is one thing that has gone right in a Dodgers season that otherwise has gone so terribly wrong.
Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres: At 31, Ross isn't that old. He's two years removed from being considered a borderline ace. There was a stretch there where I felt as if I read a new trade rumor connecting Ross to the Cubs every week. But then Ross started a game in 2016 and didn't start another. He needed surgery after being diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome. Ross returned to the majors a season ago with the Rangers, but the results were awful. Ross walked more batters than he struck out. This past offseason he signed with the Padres on a minor league contract.
And, recently, Ross carried a no-hitter against the Diamondbacks into the bottom of the eighth. He is back to striking out a batter per inning. Opponents have made a below-average rate of contact when they've swung, and a Padres person recently told me that Ross basically has his lethal slider back, after it took a couple of years off. The slider is what made Ross, and while thoracic outlet syndrome is a pretty unusual problem with a small number of baseball cases, it's not clear that Ross has to be babied. He might well be almost all the way back. The Padres' rotation has needed the help.
Jason Heyward, Chicago Cubs: One thing I understand about Heyward is that his 2018 numbers aren't spectacular. There's no sense in pretending they are. He has been about an average hitter, which, granted, is still a step up from what Heyward was in 2016 and 2017.
But here, Statcast can come in extra handy. By average exit velocity off the bat, Heyward this year has hit the ball as hard as he did back in 2015. And there's a metric out there called expected slugging percentage, which calculates an SLG estimate based on someone's actual batted balls. Heyward in 2016: .348. Heyward in 2017: .392. Heyward in 2018: .515. The strong conclusion here is that Heyward has been hitting the ball just fine in the early going, but he has simply hit into some bad luck. It happens. His hard-hit rate is up. And, for that matter, Heyward has been hitting more balls in the air. It doesn't help him much to put the ball on the ground.
Even when Heyward was struggling, he put the bat on the ball. He drew his walks. His discipline wasn't a problem. It was his swing that might have been overcomplicated. The early results now are very encouraging. Heyward has the results of an average hitter. But he now has the profile of someone even better than that.
Leonys Martin, Detroit Tigers: Martin signed with the Tigers this past offseason for $1.75 million. It wasn't very much, but then, a year ago, Martin was designated for assignment on more than one occasion. He batted .172 with three home runs. Martin might have gone to the one place where he could find a regular major league job. He could play with the Tigers, because the Tigers are bad. It's still better than Triple-A.
As I write this, Martin is slugging .479, while also providing the Tigers with an adequate defensive center fielder. There's not that much mystery here: Martin has just decided to overhaul his own offensive approach. Over his career, roughly half of his batted balls have been grounders. This season, that rate is more like a quarter. Martin has changed his swing to hit the ball up, and although this is something he flirted with during his time with the Mariners, it didn't stick. Martin found himself caught in between. Now he is rededicated and enjoying a great amount of success on a roster that needs it. Martin already has more hits and home runs than he had last season. He has never before slugged higher than .385. Just as it seemed as if Martin was finished, he has surged right back into relevance.
Jurickson Profar, Texas Rangers: This is a bit of a different case, because Profar is still -- still -- only 25 years old. He's not a classic post-peak player. He's actually younger than Bryce Harper and Javier Baez. Before the 2013 season, Baseball America tabbed Profar as the game's No. 1 prospect. You might think of him as still a prospect today.
But that's not what the industry has thought. Even in 2017, it didn't seem as if Profar was even necessarily in the Rangers' plans. Maybe it was injuries that led to underperformance, but the combination of both tanked Profar's perceived value. Entering 2018, it felt as if Profar was about out of chances. Baseball can't wait for any one man.
Now, a month and change into the season, Profar has nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His ground-ball rate is the lowest it has ever been, and just last week Profar hit a home run at 112 mph off the bat, which is a level he hadn't reached. Profar is suddenly hitting fly balls with some authority, and even the weaker version of Profar made contact and swung at strikes. This is somewhat reminiscent of what has happened with Jason Heyward, except that at least Heyward had been a good hitter before. For Profar, this is new. And it has put him right back on the major league radar.