All eyes are on the Supreme Court, awaiting its ruling in Christie vs. NCAA, a lawsuit that could eviscerate the 1992 Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act, which effectively banned most sports betting outside of a few states. With the possibility of more sports betting being available in the near future, it felt like a good opportunity to bring back one of my favorite columns that I hadn't done in several years, the prop bets piece.
I don't have the temperament of a tout, so there's no Platinum MegaLock or Szym's Gold Guarantee here. As a bettor, my yearly habits are picking and choosing among the best opportunities and squeezing out dollars from value picks. Having a projection system has proven to be a useful tool, though the real upside opportunities can be surprisingly few, with both Vegas and the public quite aware of what the projection systems are churning out.
The last time we ran this exercise, we had a pretty good year, picking Max Scherzer to win the Cy Young at 20-1 odds (he had never had a single Cy Young vote at the time). Team prop bets are among my favorites, so there are a few of them here. As in the past, I am placing all of these bets, so poor projections will cost me real money.
For each prop bet, I have included the American odds, fractional odds and the implied probability.
Nolan Arenado: National League MVP (+700 or 7/1, 12.5 percent). When we ran the preliminary 2018 award probabilities after the playoffs, the prediction model that the ZiPS projection system uses had Arenado's MVP probability at 15.5 percent. But there's one gigantic difference; at the time, the Miami Marlins were still the employer of Giancarlo Stanton. Without Stanton, ZiPS now projects Arenado at 21.9 percent and the top projected hitter in home runs and RBI, just ahead of Cody Bellinger in both. Even with the obvious hit Arenado's WAR would take given that his numbers are enhanced by Coors Field, it still ranks third in the projections behind Corey Seager and Kris Bryant and voters aren't strictly going by WAR by any means.
Giancarlo Stanton, most home runs (+375 or 15/4, 21.0 percent). While you frequently do not get good value from the favorite, ZiPS projects Stanton's mean projection at more than 10 homers more than the second-place hitters, the largest difference I've ever seen in the projections. In simulations, that amounts to a probability over 40 percent, which affords you plenty of wiggle room.
Atlanta Braves, NL East champions (+1800 or 18/1, 5.3 percent). ZiPS gives the Braves an 8.3 percent chance of winning their division, and I suspect that by its conservative nature ZiPS isn't completely capturing the upside the Braves have in upper-minors pitching prospect depth. Jake Arrieta was a big add for the Phillies, but the Phillies in 2018 aren't in that sweet spot where an additional two or three wins crushes the divisional hopes of the non-Nationals teams. There aren't many opportunities in the World Series/pennant/division prop bets and I feel this is the best one.
Chris Archer, AL Cy Young Award (+4000 or 40/1, 2.4 percent). Archer's 2017 ERA, a 4.07 in pitcher-friendly Tropicana, doesn't scream Cy Young contender, but his 3.40 FIP tells another story. The Rays aren't going to help his win totals, but they still ought to have a better-than-average defense and voters care less about win totals than they ever have before. ZiPS sees Archer's Cy Young chance closer to 5 percent.
Baltimore Orioles surpass 73 wins (-115 or 20/23, 53.5 percent). I'm pessimistic about Baltimore's 2018 chances, but I'm nowhere near this grumpy. There's little question that the rotation will be terrible, but the team would be hard-pressed to actually have a worse year than in 2017 and that team, without a great offense, still managed to squeeze out 75 wins. Alex Cobb isn't a star, but he replaces sub-replacement level innings, enough that ZiPS has the O's around 79 wins, with an 81 percent chance of beating 73 wins.
Washington Nationals under 92.5 wins (+155 or 31/20, 39.2 percent). Both the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves are improving rapidly, and with the Mets possibly actually getting to start the season with close to their desired rotation, the division is a lot tougher than it was last year. The Nats are still the divisional favorite, but a lot can go wrong with pitching and the team as a whole was fortunate in player results vs. expectations in 2017. ZiPS gives a 65.5 percent chance of the Nats hitting the under here.
Seattle Mariners under 81.5 wins (+115 or 23/20, 46.5 percent). The Astros are better than they were going into last year, though still likely to fall short of 101 wins. The Angels are better than they were going into last year. The Mariners have a rapidly aging core and did little to fix the team's problematic rotation. ZiPS gives the Mariners only a 35 percent chance of 82 or more wins in 2018.
Clayton Kershaw -- ERA over 2.20 (-115 or 20/23, 53.5 percent). Kershaw is my default NL Cy Young favorite until he proves otherwise, but pitchers are inherently risky creatures, even great ones. Kershaw has had real back issues and a 2017 FIP/xFIP that jumped to the neighborhood of 3.00. ZiPS estimates a 2.20 ERA as amounting to a 185 ERA+, which is a crazy-high baseline for a player, one that ZiPS only gives him a 26.7 percent chance of matching. And that's with the assumption that league offense drops a teensy bit. If it doesn't, that becomes an even steeper mountain.
Aaron Judge -- batting average under .270 (-115 or 20/23, 53.5 percent) and hitting more than 39.5 home runs (also -115 or 20/23, 53.5 percent). ZiPS projects Judge to hit only .253 for the Yankees in 2018. That's not a case of the projection system being notoriously grumpy with a specific player; the Steamer projection system run by the Jared Cross Trio (not a jazzy nightclub act) puts Judge at .254. Judge has awesome power and very good pitch identification skills for a player who strikes out as much as he does, but he's unlikely to be a high batting average hitter long-term, despite his .284 batting average in 2017. That average was fueled by a .357 BABIP, something Judge hasn't proven he can sustain. After all, he was at .319 and .289 in his stints at Triple-A and based on his hit profile last year, ZiPS expected a BABIP in the .320s.
On the other hand, the power is real and ZiPS gives Judge a 72 percent chance at besting 39.5 homers. Unlike BABIP, home run improvements tend to have a lot of meat on their bones, and power spikes tend to be maintained. Well, unless you're a 1987 hitter after the juiced ball was grounded in 1988.