Spring training statistics are automatically served with a few grains of salt. Players are facing much different competition levels against players at different stages of season-readiness. It's almost never a good idea to draw conclusions from just a few weeks' worth of statistics, but we can dig through what has happened so far this spring and help determine which performances to believe in and which numbers aren't telling the full story.
Joey Votto will be fine: So far this spring, Joey Votto has only five hits for a .156 batting average and not one of those hits has gone for extra bases. Hopefully you weren't worried about one of the best hitters of his generation, even as he gets up there in age. At 34 years old, Votto will be just fine. In three of the past six springs, Votto has had a slugging average below .350 and an ISO below .100, and the worst season he put up after those slow springs was last year when he hit .320/.454/.578 and was 65 percent better than league average as a hitter -- which happened to lead the National League.
Believe in the Braves' young phenoms: Ronald Acuna is the best prospect in the game, and this spring he put some pressure on the Braves to make him part of their Opening Day lineup after his 1.247 OPS leads the Grapefruit League, adding four steals for good measure. That isn't some spring mirage. Acuna is MLB-ready, never mind Monday's demotion to manipulate his service time, but he's not the only impressive young player in Braves camp. Ozzie Albies had a solid debut for Atlanta last season, hitting 10 percent above league average at just 20 years of age. His numbers can't match Acuna's this spring, but he has put up a solid .800 OPS to go along with three steals as he gets ready to avoid a sophomore slump.
It's still too early to count on Lewis Brinson: When the Marlins dealt away Christian Yelich, they received a highly touted prospect as a replacement in Brinson. This spring, Brinson has hit the ground running with a .365/.400/.585 slash line and seven of his 15 hits going for extra bases. The 23-year-old is an excellent prospect, but he struck out 17 times in 55 plate appearances in his brief call-up last season and he has struck out in 12 of 45 plate appearances this spring. Brinson should evolve into a good player, but he's not there yet.
The big free-agent prizes are ready to cash in: When this year is over, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will likely sign the largest free-agent contracts baseball has ever seen. Harper is putting up a solid spring, which is normal for him; he looks ready for another great season. Manny Machado, on the other hand, does not usually put up great numbers in spring training. After a disappointing 2017 campaign that produced just a .310 on-base percentage and average overall production despite 33 homers, Machado has come into camp lean and looks ready to mash. He's hitting .419/.457/.744 for a 1.201 OPS, a big improvement over the .676 OPS he put up in spring training before this year. Look for big years from both Machado and Harper.
Jason Kipnis is back: Back in 2014, Jason Kipnis strained his oblique in May, came back but never fully recovered and hit a miserable .240/.310/.330 over the course of the season. He came back healthy in 2015 and the next two seasons was back to vintage Kipnis, putting up back-to-back 5.0 fWAR campaigns. Last year looked a lot like the 2014 version of Kipnis, as he missed time to shoulder, neck and hamstring issues. A healthy Kipnis is a good Kipnis, and this spring, Kipnis looks healthy, and he's got as many home runs as strikeouts (six). He'll be 31 next month, but this spring has shown enough glimpses of the old Kipnis to think he will rebound from last year.
Expect a much better season from Andrew Benintendi: After many people predicted Benintendi would win rookie of the year last season, it is fair to say his year was a bit of a disappointment. He held his own with the bat, but a .271/.352/.424 line was merely average. Still just 23 years old, Benintendi is having a very good spring, with eight of his 13 hits going for extra bases. Last season, Benintendi had a good spring and took that performance into the season with a solid April, but alternated between good and bad months the rest of the way. Benintendi should once again have a good April, but this season expect to see a bit more consistency the rest of the way.
Thor is throwing lightning again: Noah Syndergaard was one of the stories of winter heading into last season after spending the offseason bulking up. Deciphering exactly what causes an injury to a pitcher can often be near-impossible, but Syndergaard only made five starts before losing most of the rest of the season with a torn lat muscle. There were some question just how much recovery Syndergaard made entering spring training, but he has put those concerns to rest by consistently throwing the ball 100 mph. His fastball averages about 99 mph, so seeing him juice up the gun like that in spring reinforces expectations that Syndergaard will be back to normal this season.
Luke Weaver easing concerns about ugly finish to 2017: The 24-year-old righty ended last season on a down note, giving up 14 runs in just 7⅔ innings in his last two starts. Those two turns more than doubled the runs he had given up in his first eight starts that season and took his ERA from 2.05 to 3.88 to end the year. Weaver was a fastball-changeup pitcher last season, but he has spent the spring incorporating his curveball, with great results. In 13⅓ innings this spring, Weaver has struck out 15 batters, walked four and given up just a single earned run to give him a 0.68 ERA this spring. The only pitcher with more strikeouts and a better ERA than Weaver this spring is Clayton Kershaw.
Be patient with Shohei Ohtani: That 27.00 ERA might look ugly, but remember he has faced only 20 batters this spring. He's essentially had the equivalent of one really bad start as he adjusts to a new league, country, strike zone, hitter tendencies and a different ball. He's also trying to hit, too. Assessing how he will do this year after just two appearances and 20 batters is simply a rush to judgment. He has still managed to strike out 25 percent of the batters he has faced, and he's given up just two walks. Those are more a silver lining than a sign of an impending breakout, but the track record and scouting reports on Ohtani say ace potential. Give him more than two spring training appearances before worrying.
Maybe the Brewers' rotation will be OK: The Brewers went big on reinforcing their outfield this offseason, but their rotation moves went under the radar with the signings of Jhoulys Chacin, Yovani Gallardo and Wade Miley. The team will be without ace Jimmy Nelson for a while, but there is some optimism that in-house options might be able to hold the fort. Miley, trying to come back from a disastrous season in Baltimore, has 18 strikeouts against five walks in 16 innings. Chase Anderson, Brent Suter and Junior Guerra also all have excellent strikeout/walk rations. Although Gallardo has struggled, Chacin has given up just one earned run. The Brewers' rotation was never going to be great, but the options they do possess have pulled things together enough to encourage some optimism.