Projections are tools, and like most tools, they're not perfect. No matter how many sources of information you use, no matter how advanced the data, there always will be some players with specific situations that a computer projection system will have trouble with. So one of the challenges I like to take on every year is to figure out where the computer is wrong and try to beat it. And in a world in which analytics rule, from teams to fantasy to gambling, trying to beat the algorithms becomes even more tempting.
So in my attempt to beat the projections, here are my favorite picks to do so for 2018. For each player, I'm providing their baseline ZiPS projection for 2018 as well.
1B Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
2018 projection: .284/.359/.475, 20 HR, 74 RBIs, 2.0 WAR
Aging can be weird sometimes. For example, who would have thought seven or eight years ago that when we got to 2018, Albert Pujols would be the mediocre one-dimensional slugger while Nelson Cruz, only six months younger, would be coming off his fourth consecutive four-WAR season? People thought David Ortiz would age terribly, a prophecy that looked fulfilled when Ortiz struggled in 2009, but he came back and played at a star level for nearly a decade.
Projection systems tend to be fairly adept at dealing with the clear-cut injuries, such as a pitcher missing a year from Tommy John surgery. But in the case of Miguel Cabrera, he mostly played through two herniated discs in his back with the unsurprising negative effect on his overall stats. But how much of that was a normal decline phase and how much of it was the back problem? That may be an unanswerable question, but given Cabrera's history as one of baseball's biggest offensive forces, I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt until his back flares up again.
I still wouldn't want to have the back end of his contract and injuries can always ruin this, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Cabrera get back to a .300/.380/.550 season, enough to get up to 4.0 WAR and a return to All-Star status.
RHP Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals
2018 projection: 14-9, 3.36 ERA, 4.4 WAR
That's already an aggressively good projection, but I think C-Mart has a real chance to crush even those numbers and enter the 2018 National League Cy Young conversation. His arsenal continues to be refined, and even with his stuff and solid 2017 results, he still was only a league-average pitcher in terms of batters making contact. As he perfects his skill as a pitcher, I think he'll get even more mileage from a repertoire that virtually can do it all.
Let's call it a full five-win season, with an ERA near or just below 3.00, with a requisite uptick in command. That's usually not enough to be as good a Cy Young candidate as Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer, but crazier things have happened.
1B Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies
2018 projection: .287/.342/.462, 17 HR, 69 RBIs, 1.0 WAR
Those aren't great numbers for McMahon projected into Coors Field, but my gut tells me that he's a better hitter right now than the projections think, while ZiPS thinks it will take a year or two for him to really break out. Overall, his 2017 was a very encouraging season on multiple fronts. As setbacks go, McMahon's .724 OPS season in 2016 in Double-A was big, but that was the year the team played its entire season on the road (due to stadium construction delays). He showed little signs of that failure last year, putting up a .926 OPS in his second try in the Eastern League before advancing to Triple-A with little trouble. He did all this while also picking up second base, a position he had never played professionally. If someone's going to crush projections, a young player who has responded well to adversity is a prime candidate.
I think the power upside is most interesting in the short-term, possibly getting McMahon in the 25-30 range in home runs. That's enough to make him a league-average first baseman in Colorado, something the Rockies haven't actually had since Justin Morneau.
RHP Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles
2018 projection: 11-10, 4.25 ERA, 2.6 WAR
One could accuse me of being an Orioles homer given my constant belief that Gausman is about to turn the corner, but I think all the mean things I've said about the team over the past year should dilute that particular charge. The split-fingered fastball is a tough pitch to master, and when Gausman cruised in the second half, it was the splitter that made the difference -- more so than a fastball that can hit 99 mph. A splitter is really closer to a changeup than a fastball, and Gausman, pitching without a traditional curve or changeup, needs his splitter-slurve off-speed combo working in tandem or he just doesn't have enough different looks to get the most out of his fastball. If he has truly mastered the split-finger, Gausman's ceiling is very high.
At the risk of favoritism, let's say Gausman approaches 3.5 WAR, gets his ERA under 4.00, and clearly establishes himself as the de facto ace of one of the worst rotations in the majors.
LF Kyle Schwarber, Chicago Cubs
2018 projection: .231/.325/.496, 31 HR, 81 RBIs, 1.2 WAR
This is very dangerous, but I'm at risk of slipping into a trap that everyone falls into: "The best shape of his life." I'm generally skeptical of this claim, but Schwarber was notable for his hard work, both at getting into better shape and putting in the extra work to improve defensively. The latter is one of the things that has held him back as an overall player, so if he can get up to the level of adequate with the glove, that gets him an extra win right there.
Schwarber will never be a high-average hitter in the majors, but something like a .250/.345/.530 season with less-horrific outfield defense makes him a significant plus.
RHP Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels
2018 projection: 10-8, 3.89 ERA, 2.0 WAR
I think ZiPS is over-correcting as far as how it looks at Richards' injury. His curveball is one of the most underrated pitches in baseball, a pitch that batters historically whiff on a lot. Back when he was healthy, it even led the league in rotations per minute at one point. If he's comfortable enough to be more aggressive at using the curve -- and so far in the spring, he's been confident enough to go to the curve a lot -- I think his 2014 line with a 138 ERA+, 4.4 WAR season isn't the least bit crazy.
SS Jean Segura, Seattle Mariners
2018 projection: .273/.317/.397, 13 HR, 52 RBIs, 2.1 WAR
Despite 8.7 combined WAR in 2016 and 2017, ZiPS still sees Segura as a league-average player. A large part of that is that while the weighting will decrease every year, his 2014 and 2015 seasons are still part of his performance record. But as many remember, Segura tragically (and suddenly) lost his 9-month-old son in July 2014, an event that almost caused him to walk away from baseball. Even though I'm not a parent, I can't imagine even getting on the field at all in that scenario. I'm not sure I ethically would even want my projections to address this kind of personal tragedy, even if it improved the projections. But regarding Segura, he's in a better place these days than back then, and his 2016 and 2017 performances look a lot like what you'd expect from him after his first full year in 2013.
His 2016 performance was probably about where Segura's ceiling is, but I think a reasonable, more optimistic projection would have Segura's 2018 looking a lot like his 2017, with a batting average around .300, an on-base percentage somewhere near .350, worth 3-4 WAR overall.
RHP Mike Clevinger, Cleveland Indians
2018 projection: 10-10, 4.43 ERA, 1.3 WAR
Clevinger's pre-2017 performances weren't that good, but he and the Indians saw the light vis-à-vis his excellent curveball -- the pitch that makes him effective -- and not the mediocre fastball. Batters slugged only .275 off Clevinger's curve after he doubled its usage as a percentage of his pitches thrown in 2017, and I can't help but feel that a team as advanced analytically as the Indians will make good and sure he sticks to his success. I don't think he has ace-level talent, but I can see a 3.70-3.90 ERA being more likely than the 4.43 in the projection.
C Jorge Alfaro, Philadelphia Phillies
2018 projection: .219/.263/.362, 13 HR, 49 RBIs, 0.1 WAR
Alfaro's performance with the Phillies after last year's call-up -- a .318/.360/.514 line in 29 games -- was a promising development for one of the prizes in the Cole Hamels trade. But ZiPS remains skeptical, perhaps understandable when a hitter puts up a .649 OPS in Triple-A and never really ever excelled in three Double-A stints. However, young catchers are notoriously hard to predict, and given the near-unanimous praise from the scouting community on Alfaro's power potential, I can see ZiPS missing something here. Spring training performance generally doesn't mean much, but even so, his .900 OPS in Grapefruit action means he's hitting a lot closer to his MLB performance than his minor league one.
While I'm not going to go too crazy and say he's an .850-.900 OPS hitter, something more along the lines of a .250/.310/.450 season isn't unreasonable. Even in an elevated offensive environment, that's an average-plus catcher.