While it is folly to make too much of performance on the sun-soaked spring fields of Arizona and Florida, there are important developments that can play out in March. The spring is a time for players to explore and experiment in a relaxed atmosphere where their play does not affect the standings or their future earning potential. The following are 10 things ESPN wants to see players show in spring training before the games count.
1. Whether Shohei Ohtani falls out of love with his fastball. The legend of Ohtani begins with the fastball. The pitch averaged 97.5 mph last year -- with a max reading of 101.6 mph -- in an injury-shortened season in Japan. For reference, Luis Severino, James Paxton, Nathan Eovaldi, Stephen Strasburg, Noah Syndergaard and Luis Castillo are the only starting pitchers who averaged 96.5 mph or better with their fastballs in the PITCHf/x era, which dates to 2007. Ohtani leaned on the pitch heavily in Japan, throwing it on 59.6 percent of his offerings last season, according to NPB pitch-tracking. Only two major league starters -- Kevin Gausman and Ty Blach -- threw four-seam fastballs at a higher rate last season, when the MLB average was 37 percent for four-seamers. Despite the radar gun readings, Ohtani should rely less on the pitch.
For starters, there is some truth to the firsthand accounts of batters who have faced Ohtani in Japan and early this spring suggesting that his fastball is flat. The pitch has an average spin rate, according to Trackman data published by MLB.com, which means it lacks a rising effect. Moreover, a Henry Ford Hospital study found that fastball usage is linked to a greater risk of UCL tears. The study found that major league pitchers who have undergone Tommy John surgery threw, on average, 7 percent more fastballs than pitchers who had no surgery. During the Ohtani sweepstakes in early December, Yahoo! reported that Ohtani had required a PRP injection in an attempt to accelerate the healing of an elbow strain. While Ohtani is still one of the most valuable assets in baseball despite the red flag, the Angels and Ohtani would be wise to manage his workload and better diversify his pitch mix, which includes a fall-off-the-table splitter and sharp curveball.
2. Can Manny Machado stick at shortstop? The Orioles superstar has made a name for himself as an elite slugger and a Gold Glove third baseman. As a result, the Orioles' moving him to shortstop in their final year of club control before Machado reaches free agency might seem a bit perplexing. But the move makes sense for the Orioles this season and for whatever team signs Machado next winter.
For starters, Machado entered professional baseball as a shortstop, moved up the minor league ranks as a shortstop and was moved off the position only due to the presence of J.J. Hardy. While Machado lacks the speed of most major league shortstops -- his sprint speed of 27 feet/second was average for a third baseman but below average for a shortstop, according to Statcast -- he's regarded as having well above average arm strength and accuracy and strong first-step instincts. His bat would become increasingly valuable at shortstop.
Moreover, defensive value is eroding in this record strikeout and home run environment. As I researched for FanGraphs, shortstops last season made 19 percent fewer plays than in 2007. Not only might Machado be a capable defender at short, but the question of his defense there has also become relatively less important.
3. Whether Eric Homer becomes a fly ball revolutionary. Hosmer is what you want your first baseman to look like, possessing a towering 6-foot-4 frame and left-handed swing and praised by scouts for his athleticism and bat-to-ball ability. Still, there are reasons he did not sign until mid-February, beyond his being just 0.1 fWAR superior to Lucas Duda since 2014. One reason only the Padres and Royals were reportedly serious bidders is that he has been a ground ball machine. In the year of the home run, Hosmer posted a career-high 2.5 ground ball/fly ball ratio last year. Since 2015, Hosmer's average launch angle of 4.3 degrees ranks 379th out of 399 hitters to have put at least 300 balls in play, a ground-ball-heavy rate similar to that of the diminutive, slap-hitting Dee Gordon. There are few players who would benefit more from added lift because Hosmer has the raw power and contact ability to be a more productive hitter. Will Hosmer have the incentive to change now that he has signed an eight-year deal? It's not certain, but his huge contract could become a club-friendly deal if Hosmer turns more of those ground balls into air balls and becomes an unquestionable star.
4. Will Jake Odorizzi mix it up in Minnesota? Statcast's Doppler radar allows pitchers to better understand the movement of their pitches. The so-called "rise" effect is a high-spin fastball that features relatively less drop, generally creating more swing-and-misses and popups in the zone. No team has bought into the high-spin fastball like the Tampa Bay Rays, who encouraged Odorizzi to pitch more up in the zone. Odorizzi did just that in each of the past three seasons, with the average height of his four-seam fastball upon arrival at the plate increasing from 2.96 feet in 2015 to 3.07 feet in 2016 to 3.17 feet last season, which tied him with Darren O'Day for the highest average fastball height in the majors.
Odorizzi might have bought in to too great a degree, becoming too predictable, as he allowed a career-worst 30 home runs in 143 innings. The pitching-needy Twins acquired Odorizzi in what was ostensibly a cash dump. By mixing up his fastball location, Odorizzi could return to status as one of the better mid-rotation options in the game.
5. Watching Nick Senzel become a shortstop. One of the great experiments early this spring has been the Cincinnati Reds' moving the top prospect up the defensive spectrum, shifting him from third base to shortstop. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 draft out of Tennessee, where he played shortstop, Senzel has an advanced bat that is nearly major-league-ready. That bat at shortstop would create a rare competitive advantage. As with Machado or the Indians' experiment with Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall in center field last season, with fewer balls being put in play, teams can be more aggressive in trading defense for offense. Shortstop is one of five positions -- along with second base, left field, center field and right field -- that has had its total defensive chances decline by 18 percent or more over the past decade.
6. Can Aaron Nola go full Rich Hill? The Philadelphia Phillies' burgeoning ace has one of the best curveballs in the game, whether you want to judge it by swing-and-miss and ground ball rates or north-south aesthetic beauty. Nola relied on the pitch relatively heavily en route to a 4.3 fWAR season in 2017, throwing his breaking ball at a 30 percent rate. But if the Phillies are to take the next step in the not-too-distant future, they need Nola to take the next step, and that might mean following the Rich Hill plan. Hill enjoyed a late-career rebirth by going away from conventional pitching wisdom and throwing his curveball as much or more often than his fastball. Nola actually dropped his curveball usage by 3 percent last season, even as it doubled in effectiveness, according to FanGraphs' linear weights, going from 9.3 runs above average in 2016 to 18.3 runs last season. Nola ought to hike his usage rate up over 40 percent this season. Good results will follow.
7. Whether Christian Yelich can get off the ground. The Brewers paid a hefty price to acquire Yelich, and rightfully so, as he's one of the game's top young stars, coming off back-to-back four-win seasons via fWAR, and he's signed to a club-friendly deal. But like Hosmer, Yelich could be even more effective if he could stop pounding ground balls into the infield turf. While he has improved his air-ball rate in each of the past two seasons, there's potential for major damage in moving from Marlins Park to hitter-friendly Miller Park. Consider that Yelich's HR/FB rate has been 6.6 percent greater on the road than at home over the past three seasons (20.4 percent to 13.8), the 19th-greatest difference in the game.
8. Figuring out if Wil Myers can relocate to the outfield successfully. Myers rates as an above-average first baseman (plus-9 DRS in 2,796 innings), but with Hosmer now on the roster, Myers is headed back to the outfield, where he has performed poorly in his career (minus-17 DRS in 1,715 innings). The move could cause the Padres to decline defensively at two positions; Hosmer rates poorly as a first-base defender. Myers' transition back to an outfield corner is a key experiment to watch this spring.
9. Watching to see if Gerrit Cole diversifies his pitch mix. Few pitchers have greater -- and rely more upon -- fastball velocity than Cole. But batters have become more and more conditioned to elite velocity. The average starting pitcher's fastball reached 93 mph for the first time last year. Cole's velocity, which has held steady, has lost some of its relative advantage.
Houston is an ideal landing spot for Cole, as the Astros have heavily reduced their fastball usage as a staff and had arms such as Lance McCullers and Charlie Morton increase reliance on quality breaking pitches. Cole has an above-average slider, a solid curveball and a changeup that he trusted to a greater degree in 2017, tripling its usage rate. When Cole finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting in 2015, it was in large part because he had excellent command of his slider. Cole has the pitch diversity to far exceed his 2017 performance. Will the Astros get him there?
10. Will the Pirates realize how much they could gain by moving Joe Musgrove to the bullpen? Although Musgrove might be a perfectly capable back-to-mid-rotation piece, the Pirates have plenty of those. What Musgrove showed in the bullpen in Houston last year is more intriguing. Opponents slashed 300/.356/.526 against Musgrove when he started last season but .195/.244/.321 when he pitched in relief, a role in which his velocity increased by 3 mph in the second half of the season. Musgrove might be an OK starter. He could be a star reliever.