Sure, it's still technically the offseason, but as of last week, spring training is underway. Traditionally, that means one thing: It's time to hope. It's time for fans of the best teams to hope for a championship. And it's time for fans of the worst teams to hope for a surprise -- a Cinderella run toward relevance. The regular season can slam shut doors of possibility, but right now, all doors remain open.
Hope is different everywhere, and it's partly informed and moderated by preseason projections. Teams and fans aren't going into spring training blind. Once rosters get more or less set, different analytical services use prior data to project what's likely to happen. Here are the current projected 2018 standings at FanGraphs. There will be shifts between now and Opening Day, but they probably won't be dramatic. Right there, you can get an informed idea of which teams look solid and which teams look weak.
From the fan perspective, maybe mathematical projections rob us of the fun of the unknowable. It's clear the White Sox are rebuilding, but the projections also make it clear how far they still have to go. Without the math, it might be easier to dream. But allow me to let you in on a little secret: Projections aren't destiny. Projections don't work against hope. They just make clearer what's being hoped for.
I'm going to talk about three teams I think could be major surprises -- in a good way, relative to the projections. Before I get there, I'd like to provide some prior examples. I have a sheet of preseason team projections stretching all the way back to 2005. Over 13 years, several teams, of course, have been projected to be below average or worse. Many of those teams were below average. But some were very successful. Among my favorites:
• The 2005 White Sox were projected to win 79 games. They won 99 games -- and the World Series.
• The 2015 Royals were projected to win 79 games. They won 95 games and the World Series.
• The 2012 Orioles were projected to win 70 games. They won 93 games and lost in the American League Division Series.
• And the 2017 Diamondbacks were projected to win 77 games. They won 93 games and lost in the National League Division Series.
Those aren't the only overachievers. They're just, shall we say, inspiring ones. Who might overachieve this year among the current below-average ballclubs?
I feel better about three teams: the Philadelphia Phillies, Oakland Athletics and Atlanta Braves. None of these teams is projected to do well. Nevertheless, I think they could shock their rivals. Here's why:
Philadelphia Phillies
Projected record: 74-88
The Phillies signed Carlos Santana, and that was weird because Santana is good and aging, and the Phillies have not been competitive. Generally, that's not the kind of match you find in the upper tiers of free agency. But I think it shows two things: The Phillies have a lot of money to spend, and they don't think they're too far away. They like Santana now, and they believe he could make a difference for an up-and-coming roster.
What every team wants is a strong, reliable nucleus. The biggest challenge for any rebuilding organization is establishing a new high-level core. Look at the Phillies today. Santana is there, now as the elder statesman. But Aaron Nola is a No. 1 starter. Rhys Hoskins just pushed to be rookie of the year in less than half a season. Odubel Herrera and Aaron Altherr resemble above-average outfielders. And J.P. Crawford looks like a 2018 candidate for rookie of the year.
The Phillies aren't complete, but they have upside at every position; and when a team has so many young players on a roster, odds are there will be breakthroughs. If Crawford were to hit the ground running this season, he could be something like Philadelphia's version of Francisco Lindor, someone who completely changes the infield dynamic. In the rotation, Nick Pivetta, Jerad Eickhoff and Mark Leiter Jr. were nearly strikeout-an-inning starters. Talent is present, and the Phillies still have a comically low payroll. Which means there's room to add.
Recent rumors have linked the Phillies to Jake Arrieta, if he were willing to sign a shorter-term deal. I don't know where Arrieta might settle, but since the Phillies have so much financial flexibility these next few years, the virtues of a match are apparent. Without Arrieta, I could see the Phillies pushing into the mid-80s in wins this season; with him, I could envision a wild-card team. The Phillies won't be down much longer. They simply have too much going for them.
Oakland Athletics
Projected record: 79-83
Here's something that would have been easy to miss about the 2017 A's. In the season's second half, they had arguably the best offense in baseball. Just about every player who contributed to that is returning. Ryon Healy is gone, but his second half wasn't good. You can see a core that has started to form.
Matt Olson looks something like a young offensive equivalent of J.D. Martinez. Coincidentally, the same statement more or less applies to Khris Davis, although he isn't so young. Matt Chapman looks like the real deal in two ways: He has proved he can hit for power in the majors, and he also might be the best defensive third baseman in baseball. (If he's not the best, he's in the conversation.) Stephen Piscotty might not be a core piece, but he was a quality player just one year ago. And Dustin Fowler still looks like a good, young center fielder.
The A's should be good at the plate and better in the field this season. Their bullpen appears fairly strong as well, having added Yusmeiro Petit, Emilio Pagan and Ryan Buchter.
The big and obvious question mark is the starting rotation, which no longer includes Sonny Gray. It's a rotation with plenty of options, but it lacks a No. 1. At various times, I've believed in the skills of Jharel Cotton, Andrew Triggs, Kendall Graveman and Sean Manaea. Chris Bassitt is supposedly healthy, and he has thrown in the mid-90s. If the A's are aggressive with getting to their bullpen to support a thinner starting staff, I could see them in the wild-card hunt. The A's also have a significantly trimmed payroll, suggesting they could make a late offseason maneuver. Maybe Arrieta would be asking too much, but Alex Cobb could settle down this unit. And then I wouldn't be at all shocked to see the A's push 90 wins.
Atlanta Braves
Projected record: 73-89
We're going back to the NL East. The Phillies are nearing the end of their rebuild, but they're not alone. The Braves might be lagging a little behind the Astros and the Cubs, but this organization is still thought to be positively overflowing with talent. More and more of it is appearing in the majors.
Freddie Freeman and Ender Inciarte are the proven stars: Freeman is a star for his bat and Inciarte for his defense. Ozzie Albies had a tremendous rookie season, posting an above-average batting line at the tender age of 20. Of course, Ronald Acuna could appear on the scene at any moment, having torn through three levels of the minors as a teenager. He might be the best prospect in the world. And I don't want to give up on Dansby Swanson, despite his miserable sophomore campaign. He is a 24-year-old middle infielder not far removed from being the first overall draft pick.
I like what the Braves' lineup could be, with some support from having a strong pair of catchers. The upside for the pitching staff is all about youth and volatility. Luiz Gohara could be an ace by midseason. Sean Newcomb is a little more command away from being outstanding. Mike Foltynewicz could benefit from the same thing. And Julio Teheran just needs to find his 2016 control. It doesn't take a whole lot of squinting to see a capable big league rotation -- to say nothing of the younger guys still on the farm. The Braves tried to rebuild around young pitcher development; it's time for them to develop.
With two steps forward on the pitching side and with a good rookie year from Acuna, I have little trouble seeing the Braves surpass .500. And there's still room for them to do better. The Braves could trade for, say, Chris Archer, now that the Rays are selling. They also could trade for Domingo Santana, depending on the Brewers' asking price. Maybe Santana is unlikely; maybe the Braves should have targeted the Rays' Souza. In any case, with one more stud, the Braves might have a legit shot at a wild card.