This is the quietest winter of recent memory, and the free-agent market is still largely frozen. It is particularly unusual to see so many quality rotation arms available in an industry in which the supply of frontline pitchers never exceeds the demand.
At some point, the ice-cold offseason will thaw, and the biggest names will begin to find work, presumably before pitchers and catchers report to the sun-soaked backfields of spring training complexes.
Although bullpens have taken on a greater workload, particularly in the postseason, no player impacts a game like a starting pitcher. The top free-agent arms available are usually signed by the New Year. While part of the lack of activity is likely due to stiffer penalties for exceeding the luxury tax and part of it is perhaps because executives are more leery of free agency while keeping an eye on next year's historic free-agent class, another part of it is caused by the growing divide between the Haves (the super teams) and the Have Nots (the rebuilding clubs).
Still, there are some teams for which a significant starting pitcher would move the needle.
Using FanGraphs' free-agent rankings, let's take a look at where the top four remaining free-agent starting pitchers might fit.
Minnesota Twins: Lance Lynn (ranked the No. 4 free-agent starting pitcher and No. 15 free agent overall at FanGraphs)
Minnesota is in an interesting position. In a game increasing about the Haves and Have Nots, in a landscape increasingly populated by Super Teams and teams in rebuilding/tanking mode, the Twins are one of the few teams in the middle. That position can be a no-man's-land or a place of opportunity.
The Twins' situation is made more interesting because they are in one of the weakest divisions in baseball, as the Tigers, Royals and White Sox are beginning or in the midst of significant rebuilds and projected to be among the worst teams in the majors. Of course, one of the four 100-win teams from last season -- the Indians -- also resides in the division. Although the Twins exceeded expectations a year ago and FanGraphs projects them to finish 81-81 and 12 games behind the Indians, they are forecasted to be 10 games better than the third-place American League Central team. The Twins might just need one team, the Indians, to slip to capture the division. Moreover, to return to the postseason as a wild-card team, FanGraphs forecasts the Twins as seven games behind the Angels and two games behind the Blue Jays for the second AL wild card.
Among teams that made the 2017 postseason, the Twins rank last in projected fWAR (8.4) from their starting pitchers and are the only AL contenders whose rotation is projected to produce less than 10 fWAR.
What this all means is that the Twins are one of the increasingly rare bubble teams for which a big move could improve the outlook significantly.
There is one more complicating factor: their budget. According to Craig Edwards' payroll-space analysis, the Twins have about $20 million in spending power this offseason. Although the Twins have been connected to the top starting pitcher in free agency in Yu Darvish, he could exceed the budget their front office has been given. Let's consider an alternative: Lance Lynn. Although Lynn doesn't have ace upside, he is more affordable.
FanGraphs' crowdsourced contract predictions have been accurate to date this offseason and forecast Lynn to eventually earn four years and $60 million, though that price could come down. Max Rieper of Royals Review found that from 2013 to 2017, free agents who signed after Jan. 1 received 25.3 percent less than FanGraphs' estimates compared to 4 percent less among those who signed prior to Jan. 1. Lynn could perhaps be had for cheaper than expected.
Lynn is far from perfect. His 3.43 ERA last season overrated his true talent, as he did not strike out batters at an elite level (7.4 per nine), avoid walks at an elite level (3.8 per nine) or induce many ground balls (44 percent ground ball rate). But the Twins can afford to take on a fly ball pitcher, thanks to Byron Buxton leading an outfield defense that produced 24 defensive runs saved, fourth in the majors.
The Twins could encourage Lynn to throw his high-spin fastball up in the zone more. In returning from injury last season, Lynn still had above-average spin on his go-to four-seam fastball (2,399 average rpms since 2015), and he commanded the cutter well, a pitch he threw at his highest rate since 2013 (11.8 percent). That's significant because few pitchers lean more on a four- and two-seamer (81 percent) than Lynn does. Lynn needs another pitch and look for batters. His cutter rated as an elite pitch last season; batters hit .146 against it with a .313 slugging percentage. Perhaps the Twins could persuade him to throw it even more.
Lynn could become something of a relative value with upside, and he's a pitcher who averaged three wins above replacement from 2012 through 2015.
Chicago Cubs: Yu Darvish (ranked the No. 1 free-agent starting pitcher and No. 1 free agent overall at FanGraphs)
The Cubs broke their World Series curse by following an inventive model. More dramatically than any club in recent memory, they elected to spend their premium draft picks exclusively on position players as they followed a modified tanking model. The idea was to spend those early first-round picks on players who would be less risky and more likely to contribute in the major leagues. The strategy yielded Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and Javier Baez. To fill their pitching voids, the Cubs flexed their financial might in free agency and signed veteran arms Jon Lester and John Lackey.
With Lackey and Jake Arrieta departing as free agents and the farm system thin on impact arms, the Cubs must return to free agency to fill rotation voids. Since Theo Epstein arrived in Chicago, The Athletic found that the Cubs have produced an MLB-low 30 innings from pitchers they drafted. They already pounced on one free-agent starter, Tyler Chatwood, signing him to a three-year deal and making a bet that he will be even better away from mile-high altitude. But the Cubs might need more rotation firepower to compete against the super teams likely to return to the postseason.
In the National League, the Dodgers and Nationals have superior top-of-the rotation arms. The Cubs might also need to worry more about capturing a division title with the Cardinals improving this offseason. The Cubs rank eighth among 2017 playoff teams in projected starting pitcher WAR (14.4). Only Lester (3.91) and Jose Quintana (3.57) project to produce FIPs below 4.11 -- essentially meaning better than league-average performance, according to FanGraphs. Darvish would project (3.70 FIP) as a strong No. 2 in their rotation. Moreover, Darvish might possess more upside.
Lost in Darvish's poor World Series performance was that the Dodgers' analytics group helped get more out of Darvish through sequencing, pitch type and location in the second half of the season following their trade for him. From the Los Angeles Times last October:
"At the team hotel in Manhattan, Darvish met with general manager Farhan Zaidi, who advised him on how to attack that night's hitters. Zaidi opened a laptop and revealed how Darvish could optimize his arsenal, altering the locations and pitch sequences he utilized during five seasons with Texas."
With the Dodgers, Darvish posted a 3.44 ERA/3.38 FIP and struck out 11.1 batters per nine against 2.4 walks. Darvish could not only improve the Cubs' pitching depth but also -- with respect to Quintana -- emerge as the true, dominant No. 1 arm that the Cubs lack.
Milwaukee Brewers: Alex Cobb (No. 4 free-agent starting pitcher, No. 10 free agent overall)
The Brewers are something like the Twins of the NL. Like the Twins, the Brewers were a surprise pop-up team of 2017. Like the Twins, they have a couple of clubs retooling within their division in the Pirates and Reds. While they have two contenders above them in the division in the Cubs and Cardinals, neither team is coming off a 100-win campaign like the Indians in the AL Central. Like the Twins, the Brewers are a rare bubble team this offseason, a team for which a significant move could help push them into the postseason picture and beat projected forecasts again. Like the Twins, they are the only potential contenders in their respective league projected to produce less than 10 WAR from their starting pitchers (9.4). There is also Jimmy Nelson's uncertain status. Finally, like the Twins, the Brewers are a smaller-market club that might not be well served, or able, to spend nine figures in guaranteed money on a starting pitching upgrade.
Rather than pursue, say, Jake Arrieta -- whom they have been connected to -- the Brewers would be better served pursuing Alex Cobb, whose value is suppressed after a so-so performance in 2017 in his return from Tommy John surgery.
Former FanGraphs editor Dave Cameron -- now with the Padres -- projected Cobb to earn a four-year, $60 million deal in free agency. FanGraphs' crowd predicted a four-year, $56 million deal. He's the only free agent who once pitched like a top-of-the rotation arm but is projected to earn less than $100 million in free agency this winter (and whose asking price might be in decline after the New Year).
Although Cobb wasn't missing bats like he did before Tommy John surgery, and though his signature split-change wasn't as effective last season, he could have more feel and strength in 2018 as he moves another year beyond Tommy John surgery. Moreover, his strikeout rate increased late in the season. The uncertainty regarding his future performance presents a buying opportunity for a small-market team that will likely not want to trade too much of tomorrow for today but is perhaps interested in improving its 2018 prospects.
Los Angeles Angels: Jake Arrieta (No. 2 free-agent starting pitcher, No. 3 free agent overall)
The Angels have strengthened their overall outlook thanks to the signing of Shohei Ohtani and Zack Cozart and the resigning of Justin Upton. They are projected as the favorites to be the second AL wild card, according to FanGraphs' projections for 2018 (88 wins), but it's a tenuous position with a lot of offseason -- and regular season -- to play.
After the Twins, the Angels have the weakest starting pitching rotation among AL contenders, according to FanGraphs' projections. The Angels could use more pitching help and cannot expect much immediate help from their farm system. The Angels probably have to pay for another upgrade due to the lack of farm-system assets, and every potential win they can buy in free agency could be crucial, especially given that Ohtani already has a medical red flag regarding his elbow.
Arrieta is a high-risk bet who has regressed from his Cy Young campaign of 2015, yet could come with a nine-figure price tag. Even so, the Angels are one of the few teams with the financial space and need to take a chance on Arrieta and bet that his hard-contact-limiting ways are sustainable. Arrieta has natural deception in his cross-fire delivery and ranks fourth among all starting pitchers in soft contact rate (22 percent) since 2015, posting a rate of at least 20 percent in every season since 2011. Arrieta is a long-term risk, but he would increase the chance that the baseball world is able to enjoy seeing Trout and Ohtani in October.