Inaction has ruled Major League Baseball this winter. Many of the top free agents remain unsigned, as baseball's best teams need little help to repeat at the top of their divisions. While most of the divisions have clear favorites, both leagues' wild-card races are relatively wide open. There are likely teams sitting on the fence right now wondering whether they can make a run in 2018. If free-agent prices are falling below expectations, there are bargains to be struck that could have huge ramifications in the standings this year.
Free agency is always dicey and always expensive, but if you run a team currently on the edge of contention, there are some potentially high-impact free agents available -- relative to the cost it might take to sign them -- that could solidify your stance as a contender. If you run a team in the middle of a rebuild and you think 2019 is the beginning of your window to compete, hitting on a few moves right now might open that window this season.
If 2018 is a season of hope in which, if things go right, your team could be a contender, these are the players to target.
3B Mike Moustakas: Good third basemen seem to be plentiful in today's game. Last year, 21 players put up average (2+ fWAR) or better seasons from the hot corner, and Moustakas ranked near the end of that list, with 2.2 fWAR in 2018. With San Francisco trading for Evan Longoria and the Los Angeles Angels signing Zack Cozart, potential suitors for Moustakas appear to have dwindled. That could make the 29-year-old a steal.
Although its reputation as a pitchers' park might not be incredibly well-known, Kansas City is very much one, particularly when it comes to suppressing home runs. Much of Moustakas' game involves getting the ball in the air, and it is possible that playing home games in Kansas City hurts Moustakas more than it might others. Hitters generally hit about 10 points of wRC+ better at home. The opposite has been true for Moustakas the past three seasons, as he has hit about 20 percent better than league average on the road and just 10 percent better than average at home.
Moustakas hit 38 homers last season with the juiced ball, but 24 of those came on the road. If Moustakas were to replicate his road numbers over the course of the season, he would be a four-win player. Given the potential comfort of doing better at a new home park all season, his upside is even higher. A team with no third baseman, in a hitters' park and on the cusp of ending a rebuild would be an ideal fit for Moustakas. The Atlanta Braves, with barely any money committed beyond 2018, could backload a contract for Moustakas and hope for a power outburst, building a bridge for the team's fantastic prospects.
1B Logan Morrison: Entering last season, Morrison hit a fly ball on 36 percent of batted balls, and for every four fly balls he hit, he added five grounders. The result was a middling career with an average of 18 homers for every 600 plate appearances. In 2017, Morrison -- still a patient hitter -- changed his approach a bit, striking out more and trying to get the ball in the air. He upped his fly ball rate to 46 percent, and for every four fly balls, he hit just three grounders. The result was 38 home runs and a career year.
Morrison is still relatively young, at 30 years old, but despite the career year, teams could shy away from the first baseman because of his mediocre track record. Morrison might crash back to earth after what was probably a career year, but if his new approach at the plate proves sustainable, he is going to provide top-slugger production at middle-reliever prices. He also doesn't have a qualifying offer attached, so teams don't need to fear losing a draft pick.
The first base/designated hitter market isn't a great one to be in this winter, but a number of contending teams could use Morrison, including the Colorado Rockies, Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins.
RHP Lance Lynn: From 2013 to 2015, Lynn averaged 32 starts and 194 innings per season with a 3.25 ERA and 3.35 FIP, exceeding three wins above replacement every year by FanGraphs' WAR. That type of consistency might have netted a player a $100 million contract in recent offseasons. Unfortunately for Lynn, he missed the 2016 season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Last year, Lynn couldn't quite recover his earlier form, striking out fewer hitters and walking more. His ERA was still a solid 3.43, but that was due in part to a .244 BABIP against, which might not be repeatable. When looking at the cost of free-agent pitchers, it's easy to see the warning signs, but there is some upside here.
Pitchers often struggle with command their first year back from Tommy John surgery. Given that Lynn throws some form of fastball -- four-seam, sinker or cutter -- on more than 90 percent of his pitches, command is more important for Lynn than most. In 2018, two years removed from Tommy John surgery, a team could be buying Lynn for the end of the rotation and could emerge with a solid No. 3 starter.
There really isn't a team out there that couldn't use a pitcher such as Lynn, but if the Phillies want to sign the pitching counterpart to Carlos Santana, Lynn could be their guy.
CF Lorenzo Cain: If you had to guess which free-agent outfielder had the highest WAR last season, you would need to guess Lorenzo Cain to be correct. If you had to guess which free-agent position player has the highest projected WAR for 2018, you would again need to guess Lorenzo Cain to be correct. J.D. Martinez gets the most attention because of the home runs, but he didn't play a full season, and defensive shortcomings limit his overall value.
Cain is an above-average hitter, he generates runs on the bases, and even though he will turn 32 in April, he is still a solid defender in center field. Since the beginning of 2014, the only center fielder more valuable than Cain has been Mike Trout. Cain's age and reliance on defense for his value might scare some suitors away, but he has the chance to have the biggest impact of any free agent on the market.
Given that Cain is a plus center fielder, any team with an opening in the outfield could insert Cain somewhere and have him make a big difference. If the Diamondbacks don't bring back Martinez, Cain would be a great fit in Arizona. If the Giants want to give it one more shot at winning with their veteran core, Cain slots in nicely. Of the players mentioned here, Cain is probably the most expensive, but he's also the most impactful.
Picking specific players for specific teams can be difficult, but there are a few teams that could grab two or even three of these players and drastically change their outlooks this season. The Phillies started with Carlos Santana; adding Lynn and Cain would make them contenders now. The Braves look a year away as Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson continue to develop around Freddie Freeman, but backloaded deals for Moustakas, Cain and Lynn would jump-start their future. Even a team such as the Detroit Tigers could ignore its plans to rebuild, sign all four players and contend in 2018.
This year's slow free-agent market is providing teams with a golden opportunity to change the direction of their franchise. Teams such as the Braves, Twins, Brewers and Phillies need to adapt to this market and alter their plans because if they blow this chance, they are likely to regret it.