We are getting to the end of the third month of the season, which means that we stop talking about players and teams off to hot or cold starts and start talking about how their year looks. This can be good or bad news for teams -- good for surprise contenders like the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Yankees, and bad for teams in big holes like the New York Mets and the San Francisco Giants. What this time of year does afford us, though, is the ability to take what a team has done so far this year on its own merit and not refer back to the previous season as much.
With that in mind, I wanted to take a broad view of the league's defensive landscape, assessing where teams stand relative to each other by defensive runs saved (DRS) and seeing where some clubs have an opportunity to improve. To give some analytical rigor to the proceedings, I took a weighted average of each team's total DRS the last two seasons. This season's total was prorated to a full season, and then the two seasons were averaged with two parts 2017 and one part 2016. This allows 2017 to count more, but doesn't fully discount what a team did last year, as most players are still on the same team and we don't want to overvalue results from this year alone. Then I ranked each team by this weighted average, and grouped the teams into tiers based on those values.
Weighted Average of Team DRS, 2016-17
Let's see how these teams have found themselves in these tiers with their play over the last year and a half. While it's convenient that there are such clean gaps between tiers, this really is a bit too many groups to work with, especially toward the bottom of the list. So I'll go over some of these tiers in pairs to avoid over-categorizing.
Tier 1: The Blue Bloods
Who: Cubs, Rays and Red Sox
It has not been smooth sailing for the reigning champs, but the Cubs' defense still deserves respect. Their record-setting 107 runs saved from last season does have some sway here, but they shouldn't be sold short after declining in 2017. The departure of David Ross and the integration of Kyle Schwarber were expected to hurt -- but not destroy -- the team's defense, and we are seeing that play out. The Cubs are still in the top 10 in DRS this season, getting outstanding work from Jason Heyward and Addison Russell (24 runs saved between them). One weak link has been reigning MVP Kris Bryant, who saved at least four runs with his range and positioning alone in each of his first two years at third base but has cost the Cubs four runs at the hot corner this season.
The Rays are usually led by Kevin Kiermaier, perhaps the best defensive player in the league. He trails only Mookie Betts in runs saved since the start of last season and has done so in fewer innings than most of the players just below him. We have praised Kiermaier before, but while he recovers from a hairline fracture in his hip, it's worth noting this team has performed well across the board and leads the league in DRS, getting above-average contributions from every position but second base this season. Where the Rays are really excelling this year in particular is with their infield shifts. The team that started the trend -- they led the league in shifts in each of the 2010-12 seasons, and have remained in the top five since -- leads the league with 18 runs saved with the shift this season after saving half that amount all of last season.
An outfield that knows how to dance as well as make plays in the field has driven the Red Sox to their lofty position, as they lead the majors in runs saved by outfielders over the last two seasons by 17 runs. Mookie Betts outpaced all defenders last season with 32 runs saved, and currently leads the league with 17. He is essentially a center fielder playing in right, which is a luxury that the Red Sox are afforded by having Jackie Bradley Jr. around (17 runs saved in center since 2016).
Tier 2: Preseason Contenders ... and the Reds
Who: Astros, Dodgers, Indians, Rangers and Reds
Let's start with the one team on this list that didn't fancy itself a contender at the start of the year and was actually one of the worst defensive teams last season. The Reds have perhaps the single flashiest defender in Billy Hamilton, a speedster who saved 15 runs in center field last season. Hamilton has been more pedestrian in 2017, but Cincinnati's infielders have saved 26 runs across those six positions so far after costing the team 36 runs last season. In particular, first baseman Joey Votto has bounced back from a bizarre down year in which he cost the team 14 runs after saving no fewer than four runs in each of the previous six seasons, and third baseman Eugenio Suarez came out hot on both sides of the ball after being at best an average player previously.
The reigning AL champs did themselves a big favor by sending Tyler Naquin down earlier in the year (he cost the team 17 runs in center field last season) and bringing up Bradley Zimmer, who has already saved four runs in around 200 innings at the position, primarily by throwing out three runners attempting to advance. Another big reason why the Indians have had so much defensive success is that, despite being middle of the road in terms of the raw number of shifts, they lead the league in shift runs saved over the last two seasons.
The rest of this tier is marked by teams with fairly deep groups of position players who can be mixed and matched in a way that can help both offensively and defensively. The Astros have a few more defensive liabilities to work around, so having Josh Reddick struggle defensively in right field has been a bit of an unhappy surprise. It might benefit him to play a little deeper despite playing in a smaller home park than he's used to, as he made 30 plays above average on deep balls over the previous six years but has made four plays below average on those plays so far this year.
Tier 3: The Upper Middle Class
Who: Angels, Brewers, Cardinals, Mariners, Rockies, Twins, White Sox and Yankees
This is a pretty big group to round out the good defensive squads, but there are some ties that bind them. Start with the importance of outfield defense in today's game. Much has been made about the Twins' outfield defense this year, as Byron Buxton's defensive breakout and the move away from using Robbie Grossman in the outfield have done wonders for them. The Yankees have had a solid outfield group as long as Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury have manned left and center field, and Aaron Judge has defied expectations nearly as much with his quality glove (four runs saved this season) as with his bat. And the Mariners made moves in the offseason to specifically improve their outfield defense, a strategy that has turned them from a significantly below-average group (minus-27 DRS in 2016) to a significantly above-average one (plus-29 DRS in 2017).
The Mariners, Brewers and White Sox all appeared in the table of teams that are getting good results with the shift, but they are also three of the four shift-happiest teams in the majors this season. Among them, only the White Sox shifted substantially less last season.
Of course, each of these teams has warts that are slightly obscured by this success. The Mariners have had the second-worst group of catchers defensively this season, costing them 10 runs, split mostly between Mike Zunino and Carlos Ruiz; it's time for the team to pursue an alternative to Ruiz given his struggles with the bat as well. Milwaukee's Keon Broxton has cost more runs in center field this season (minus-10) than he saved last season (plus-9). It might just be a matter of gaining consistency, since most of his drop-off has come on plays at a medium distance that don't require athleticism as much as route efficiency, good initial reads and a secure glove.
The Rockies and Angels show the difference the catcher makes. Colorado has four catchers who have each cost the team at least two runs (Tony Wolters, Dustin Garneau, Ryan Hanigan and Tom Murphy), while the Angels are getting the best defense behind the plate in MLB this season thanks to Martin Maldonado and Juan Graterol. Colorado is basically being buoyed by third baseman Nolan Arenado, whose 34 runs saved the last two seasons is the difference between the team being above-average and below-average defensively.
Tier 4: The Middle Class
Who: Blue Jays, Braves, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Pirates and Royals
These are all clubs with average defense when you look at the last two seasons -- they're doing fine, but they could do better. Since there aren't as many great performers to highlight, we'll focus on the opportunities some of these teams have for improvement.
The Royals have been rotating multiple well-below-average defenders in right field named Jorge (Bonifacio and Soler). Perhaps once Paulo Orlando heals up from a fractured shin, he could return to gain some playing time in right, where he saved five runs for the Royals in just over a half-season last year. If Bonifacio then ends up taking DH at-bats from a slumping Brandon Moss, the Royals could net a gain on both sides of the ball.
The Diamondbacks made a big financial commitment to slugger Yasmany Tomas, but they've had to pay extra on defense, as he's cost them 23 runs the last two years combined in the outfield corners and third base, including a league-worst 11 runs with his throwing arm. Things should soon improve for them overall when A.J. Pollock returns from the DL to patrol center field, but once Tomas comes back from his own injury the D-backs could benefit by expanding the defensive opportunities for super utility man Chris Owings in left field, taking away some defensive innings from Tomas and opening more up for defensive whiz Nick Ahmed at shortstop, where Owings splits time when he isn't platooning with David Peralta in right field.
Tiers 5 and 6: Teams with Problems
Who: Giants, Mets, Nationals, Orioles, Padres, Phillies and Tigers
These are the teams that are solidly below average, with only one of these clubs being above average defensively in either of the last two years -- the Giants. Focusing on them, they've managed to go from a top-five defensive team in 2016 to a bottom-five team in 2017. In fact, they have fielded the two worst defenders in the league this season in third baseman/outfielder Eduardo Nunez and center fielder Denard Span. Unfortunately, their other center fielder, Gorkys Hernandez, has cost the team nine runs himself.
The Giants' plummet has also been keyed by dramatic underperformance from two up-the-middle mainstays in Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford. The DRS drop-offs from those two stars between 2016 and 2017 are among the worst in the league, joining Span in that distinction. Posey appears to be losing his pitch-framing touch, a skill that saved no fewer than eight runs in each of the previous five seasons but has actually cost the Giants a run so far this year. At age 30, it makes sense that Posey might start losing this skill, as it is one that requires fine motor control. (Jonathan Lucroy serves as another recent example of a pitch-framing paragon losing his touch.)
As for Crawford, his crossing the age-30 threshold has brought with it a disappearance of his exceptional defensive range. He saved 16 runs with his range and positioning in both 2015 and 2016, but has been merely average this year.
With few position-player prospects with premium defensive skills due to arrive in San Francisco any time soon, it doesn't seem like the Giants will have much help available on defense to turn around their 57-90 record since the 2016 All-Star break.
Tier 7: The Athletics
One team stands alone at the bottom of the league. Oakland was the worst defensive team last season and is the worst this season. The A's are also one of only a few teams this season to have actually cost themselves with their infield shifts, where they're three runs below average.
An organizational preference for bat-first or bat-only players contributes to their exceptionally poor fielding. Relatively recent acquisitions like left fielder Khris Davis, shortstop Marcus Semien and first baseman Yonder Alonso have cost their team 26 runs since the start of last year. Even their younger position players include guys like Ryon Healy, who has spent most of his time at DH because of his defensive limitations at the infield corners. Some of the gains on offense have been worth it, but when the team as a whole does this poorly on defense, it is hard to put wins on the ledger.
One small way that the A's could improve is by changing the style of infield shift they tend to use. BIS research has shown that partial shifts -- shifts that don't result in three players being on one side of the infield -- are less effective than full shifts. The league-wide batting average on ground balls and short line drives (GSLs) in 2017 is .219 on full shifts and .260 on partial shifts. The Athletics have been more extreme in their performance, with opponents hitting .123 on GSLs against a full shift but .346 against a partial shift -- yet the A's use partial shifts more often than full shifts. Even though this comes from a pretty small sample, given what we know about shift effectiveness, simply using the ones that work more often would help, let alone using more shifts overall.
Alex Vigderman is a research analyst for Baseball Info Solutions. He still gets goose bumps when he hears Harry Kalas' home run calls.