Last week, I ranked the top 10 defensive infielders in baseball. This week it's time to hit the outfield. Interestingly, the outfield has generated more disagreements between the Gold Glove voters and modern defensive statistics such as Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) than the infield has. Only four of my top 10 ranked outfielders has a Gold Glove award to his name.
This is my attempt to rank the best defensive outfielders based on my synthesis of various defensive metrics, my observations and the research we have done into the relative value of the three outfield positions. And for that last reason, no full-time left fielders made the list. In previous seasons, left fielders such as Alex Gordon and Starling Marte would have had a chance, but by and large teams still try to hide hitters in left field, and even the best defensive left fielders rarely excel when they try to play the more difficult outfield positions.
10. Lorenzo Cain, CF, Kansas City Royals: The Royals' outfield isn't what it was at its peak in 2013-15 when it saved more than 40 runs per year and helped propel a defense- and bullpen-skewed team to consecutive World Series appearances, but at least Cain still serves as its anchor. Cain's success in center field is all about range. He makes his fair share of misplays and actually has a worse arm than an average center fielder, but he continues to save 10 or more runs per season by getting to balls that other center fielders can't reach.
It will be interesting to see what the Royals decide to do when Cain becomes a free agent this offseason, assuming they don't trade him beforehand. On one hand, defensive production has typically been underpaid in free agency relative to offensive production, so Cain might be more affordable for a team that has traditionally been conservative with its free-agent dollars. But on the other hand, the Royals might be reluctant to hand out a long-term deal to a 31-year-old player whose skill set relies heavily on speed.
9. Jason Heyward, RF, Chicago Cubs: Heyward has been ice cold at the plate ever since he joined the Cubs for the 2016 season, but they can be happy that at least his glove has proven slump-proof. In fact, Heyward can make a strong case for being the most consistent defensive player in baseball. Since he entered the league in 2010, Heyward has saved at least 10 runs in right field every season. Last year was his seventh consecutive such season, which broke Chase Utley's record of six seasons of 10 or more runs saved, which he set in 2010 as a second baseman.
Heyward has the range of a center fielder, and his nine career runs saved in just 477 ⅓ innings there suggest he could be one of that position's best defenders, too. Still, it's hard to disagree with the logic of keeping Heyward in right field, where he has consistently excelled.
8. Billy Hamilton, CF, Cincinnati Reds: Outfield range relies heavily on speed, so it should be no surprise that the game's
preeminent speedster is also an exceptional defender. Hamilton has the fastest average stolen base time among regular players in baseball, and he puts those wheels to good use by ranging to make plays in center field.
What may be more of a surprise is that Hamilton excels at all aspects of outfield defense. The former shortstop also has an excellent throwing arm and has made the second-most good fielding plays among center fielders since 2015, which speaks well to his route-running, hands and instincts.
7. Jarrod Dyson, LF/CF, Seattle Mariners: Hamilton may edge him out of the top spot in stolen base times, but Jarrod Dyson gets the nod in my rankings of outfield defense. It was a pretty clear sign that Dyson was a great defender when the Royals used to move Cain to right field when the two of them played together.
The major differentiator between Cain and Dyson is Dyson's above-average throwing arm. But despite his tools, Dyson has long been underappreciated, no doubt because of his inconsistent playing time. That could change this season now that Dyson is more or less the Mariners' everyday center fielder. Regardless of whether his playing time remains consistent, Dyson deserves recognition as one of the games' best defenders. Since his debut in 2010, only two regular center fielders have more runs saved on a per-inning basis at the position: Juan Lagares, whose injuries cost him a spot on this list, and the player that I ranked No. 1.
6. Byron Buxton, CF, Minnesota Twins: Buxton has had a slow start to his MLB career at the plate, but even with less than a full season's worth of innings in center field, I'm ready to label him one of the best defenders in baseball.
As with many of the other players on this list, Buxton has exceptional speed that helps him reach balls most center fielders can't -- he actually has more runs saved due to range (nine) than any other center fielder this year. Buxton is also fearless in the field. He made the likely defensive play of the year when he crashed into the wall in right-center field following a full sprint to rob Carlos Santana on May 14. That play evoked memories of Ken Griffey Jr. in his prime, and Buxton has made a number of other spectacular diving and wall-crashing catches just this year.
5. Mookie Betts, RF, Boston Red Sox: Betts led all players at any position with his 32 runs saved in right field in 2016, and any concern that his incredible total represented a one-year fluke has been quickly allayed so far this season since he has already saved another 10 runs. Betts is athletic, but he also demonstrates how much preparation and strategy can mean to defensive success.
Betts was able to save such a high number of runs last year because he saved more plays on deep balls -- rating 15 plays above average -- than he did on medium and shallow balls, on which he was five plays above average on each. Those deep outs tend to save doubles and triples, whereas shallow outs tend to save singles, and the relative difference in run impact of those types of catches can really add up over the course of a season. That's one big reason that a Gold Glove winner like Betts can rank so well in DRS while some other recent Gold Glove winners like Adam Jones have typically been closer to the middle of the pack in DRS.
4. Jackie Bradley Jr., CF, Boston Red Sox: To my mind, Betts is one of the five best defensive outfielders in baseball, but he
is not even the best outfielder on his own team. That title belongs to the Red Sox's center fielder. Betts has Bradley beat definitively in foot speed -- his 3.59-second average stolen base time is more than a tenth of a second faster than Bradley's (3.71) -- but Bradley makes up for that with otherworldly instincts, exceptional route running and a powerful throwing arm.
Since the start of 2016, Bradley has thrown out 11 baserunners without a relay man, or plays which Baseball Info Solutions calls outfield kills. Bradley's total is the most among all center fielders over the time frame, and it has helped Bradley save the Red Sox seven runs with his throwing arm alone.
3. Ender Inciarte, CF, Atlanta Braves: Inciarte reminds me a lot of Dyson. Early in his career, he bounced around the Diamondbacks' outfield competing for playing time with several other talented players -- A.J. Pollock, David Peralta and Gerardo Parra. Inciarte's defensive production was excellent, but his full-season DRS totals lagged behind the outfield positional leaders because he never played even 700 innings at a single position in a season in Arizona. Now that Inciarte has a chance to play center field every day for the Braves, it shouldn't take long for his reputation to match his skill. In his career, Inciarte has saved 34 runs in center in 2,296 innings, which is a rate of about 21 runs per full season. Last year, a total of 21 runs saved would have matched the total of No. 2 center fielder in DRS, who also happens to be the No. 2 outfield defender in my rankings.
2. Kevin Pillar, CF, Toronto Blue Jays: Looking back, it's amazing to think that there were ever doubts that Pillar could handle center field defensively, but in his first couple of seasons with the Blue Jays he spent most of his time in the outfield corners. The pattern within his defensive numbers suggests that Pillar may well have improved defensively since reaching the majors, which is fairly unusual. Most players' defensive abilities peak in their early 20s, several years before their best offensive seasons. But whatever road Pillar took to get here, there is no denying he is one of the game's elite glove men now. Since he became a full-time center fielder in 2015, he has saved 39 runs there, 10 more than Cain in third place -- yet just over half of the total of the player I ranked No. 1 on this list.
1. Kevin Kiermaier, CF, Tampa Bay Rays: Was there ever any doubt about who would land the top spot? Kiermaier has all of the tools you want from an elite center fielder. Over the past three seasons, he has the best range numbers and the best throwing numbers, and he has made the most good fielding plays among active center fielders. In 2015, he broke Andrelton Simmons' record for the most DRS in a season with 42, and he led center fielders in DRS again in 2016 with 25. He is the biggest reason the Rays have the best defense in baseball this year -- they have 44 DRS in total.
Kiermaier is a special player, which is probably best illustrated by comparing his range to typical center fielders. The following diagram shows the field area in which both Kiermaier and an average center fielder make more plays than they miss. Kiermaier has a significant edge in all directions.
He's just 27, but Kiermaier already has the fifth-most career defensive runs saved among outfielders in the era of recorded DRS (2003-present). If he can maintain this pace for several more seasons, he'll make a strong case for the best defensive outfielder of the new millennium.
Scott Spratt is a research analyst for Baseball Info Solutions. You can follow him on Twitter (@Scott_Spratt).