Believe it or not, we're creeping up on the one-third mark of the big-league season, with Wednesday's games officially marking the end of the second month of the 2017 campaign. Memorial Day is a fairly significant one on the baseball calendar, because this is when a number of decision-makers around the league start to look at their teams with a more critical eye. Dismissing trends as being too early becomes more difficult. With the results piling up, preseason expectations are trumped by reality and teams start positioning themselves to consolidate or pivot.
With the end of another month, it's time for another round of checkups across baseball, repeating the exercise I began last month. However, with the trade deadline just two months away, we're going to change things up a tad. We're still displaying the updated forecasts and playoff odds for each team and how they've changed during May.
And we're grouping teams a little differently by putting more emphasis on their respective buy, hold and sell statuses. We've put the teams into five tiers: ready to buy, probable buyers, still holding, probable sellers and open for business. The groupings have all been determined by each team's probability to make the postseason, according to FiveThirtyEight. The ranking noted for each team reflects its current standing in my power rating system, and teams are listed in order by that ranking within each group.
Ready to buy
1. Rev. forecast: 105.0 wins | Monthly change: 11.3
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 94 percent | Monthly change: 19 percent
Cody Bellinger's arrival gives the Dodgers awesome star power atop a roster that already featured Corey Seager, Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen. But the rise of the Dodgers continues largely because of the depth built up by general manager Andrew Friedman. With injury question marks in the rotation and a concerning lack of power from Adrian Gonzalez, Friedman might need to augment that depth even more.
2. Rev. forecast: 102.1 wins | Monthly change: 8.7
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 97 percent | Monthly change: 12 percent
Before the season, the only thing it appeared Houston lacked was a No. 2 starter to slot behind Dallas Keuchel. However, Lance McCullers Jr. has emerged as one of the breakout pitchers in the game. Now the need shifts toward the end of the rotation, which in this year's trade market should be a relatively easy trade piece to add.
3. Rev. forecast: 99.7 wins | Monthly change: 2.8
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 92 percent | Monthly change: 4 percent
The Nationals' title hopes are likely to hinge on Mike Rizzo's ability to add a lockdown reliever or two over the next couple of months. That pitcher doesn't necessarily have to be a closer since the Nationals have some quality bullpen arms already on the roster. They just don't have enough of them.
Probable buyers
4. Rev. forecast: 99.4 wins | Monthly change: 6.2
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 62 percent | Monthly change: 6 percent
If Greg Bird doesn't get it going once he gets back from the disabled list, the Yankees could need another bat at first base. They'll almost certainly need another starter and perhaps a bullpen arm, as well, if Aroldis Chapman's shoulder problems linger. Still, these are first-world problems for a Yankees squad that is positioned for the long haul.
5. Rev. forecast: 94.3 wins | Monthly change: 6.6
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 50 percent | Monthly change: 8 percent
The Diamondbacks' early success should preclude any salary dump, unless Arizona is bowled over by an offer for expensive but excellent starter Zack Greinke. Still, with limited financial flexibility, the D-backs will probably try to improve at the margins as long as they remain in contention.
6. Rev. forecast: 93.4 wins | Monthly change: 16.7
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 68 percent | Monthly change: 34 percent
The Rockies are probably better positioned to make a splashy addition than the D-backs but might not have to if the second and third tiers of the National League don't start playing themselves into wild-card contention. Getting David Dahl and Jon Gray back healthy might be the only in-season upgrades Colorado needs to make.
8. Rev. forecast: 88.3 wins | Monthly change: 5.7
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 56 percent | Monthly change: 0 percent
The picture for the Red Sox should be much clearer in two or three weeks. With David Price back, Boston's rotation is as intact as it's going to be with Steven Wright out for the season. Now we, and the Red Sox, can focus on a suddenly fragile infield situation.
11. Rev. forecast: 85.6 wins | Monthly change: minus-3.6
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 75 percent | Monthly change: 0 percent
With the game's best bullpen, an offense that should be strong once all its component parts start working at the same time and ace Corey Kluber about to return from the DL, no team might be better positioned to benefit from a splashy, in-season pickup of another starting pitcher.
12. Chicago Cubs
Rev. forecast: 84.9 wins | Monthly change: minus-10.6
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 68 percent | Monthly change: minus-18 percent
I, like many, keep waiting on the Cubs to get on a two- or three-week roll that will re-establish their dominance over the NL Central. Now that we're past Memorial Day and the Cubs have face-planted on their current West Coast swing, it's worrisome. And not the kind of worry that any one trade figures to fix. However, we've known all along that the Cubs would need to add a starter and probably a reliever, too, and that hasn't changed.
On the fence
7. Rev. forecast: 88.4 wins | Monthly change: 4.4
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 38 percent | Monthly change: 11 percent
In my rating system, the Rays join the Dodgers and Astros as the only teams in the top 10 in run production and run prevention. The position players have been as good as anybody's, and, even if they regress as a group at the plate, the pitching should pick up that slack with regression in the other direction. The Rays can deal a starter to plug any specific hole or to shore up their depth. Tampa Bay is well positioned for a full-season run at a postseason slot.
9. Rev. forecast: 87.9 wins | Monthly change: 7.1
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 27 percent | Monthly change: 11 percent
If it were just on the position players, the surprising Brewers would be well-served to keep riding what they have. But the pitching has overachieved. Nevertheless, if Junior Guerra's return keeps the beat for the rotation, a month from now, the Brewers might be buyers, at least for lower-cost pitchers. One way or another, Milwaukee could use some clarification on their July plan this month. The happy outcome would be another strong month.
10. Rev. forecast: 87.3 wins | Monthly change: 8.6
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 16 percent | Monthly change: minus-2 percent
The White Sox would have to go on a torrid streak to go from the sell mode they've been in since December to the buy mode. But their underlying metrics keep nudging in the right direction. And don't forget, the prospects Chicago added this winter, such as Lucas Giolito (who threw a no-hitter last week) and Yoan Moncada, are going to help the Sox sooner than later.
13. Texas Rangers
Rev. forecast: 84.8 wins | Monthly change: 0.0
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 19 percent | Monthly change: 5 percent
The Texas bullpen has been arguably the worst in the majors, a big reason why Texas has been baseball's streakiest team. The Astros are running away with the AL West, but the Rangers need to find some help for Matt Bush and company to mount a wild-card push.
14. New York Mets
Rev. forecast: 82.6 wins | Monthly change: 2.5
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 20 percent | Monthly change: minus-10 percent
The only trade the Mets need to make is bad health for good health.
16. Rev. forecast: 81.7 wins | Monthly change: 6.8
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 26 percent | Monthly change: 15 percent
The Blue Jays have all their big bats back for the time being and are putting up scores reminiscent of their run of success in the AL East the past few years. A good June could have Toronto looking to patch holes for a postseason push. A bad June could point toward a reset. But the fact there is still a range of possibilities that wide shows how far Toronto has come since its disastrous early season.
17. Minnesota Twins
Rev. forecast: 80.5 wins | Monthly change: 2.4
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 22 percent | Monthly change: 1 percent
You want to believe, but the Twins have been outscored on the season and, despite leading the AL Central, rank just third in the division by my power rating. It still seems more likely that the Twins will be selling in late July rather than buying.
18. Detroit Tigers
Rev. forecast: 78.6 wins | Monthly change: minus-1.1
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 22 percent | Monthly change: minus-12 percent
The Tigers are hanging within sniffing distance in the tepid AL Central. Yet Detroit has shown little to convince Al Avila that his winter notion of resetting the roster was the wrong one.
19. Rev. forecast: 78.5 wins | Monthly change: minus-0.2
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 34 percent | Monthly change: 4 percent
It has been a strange season for the Redbirds, who have gotten excellent starting pitching but otherwise a whole myriad of disappointments. Things should get better if some of St. Louis' underachievers move closer to their expected rates of production. But when you're sending a guy like Randal Grichuk to high-A, that's a bad sign for the construction of this club.
20. Rev. forecast: 78.4 wins | Monthly change: minus-3.0
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 26 percent | Monthly change: minus-12 percent
At the very least, the Orioles can hope Manny Machado hits for a lot more going forward than he has put up to this point. Baltimore also desperately needs Kevin Gausman to pick things up. If those two things happen, Baltimore should be able to muddle along until Zach Britton gets back later this summer.
21. Seattle Mariners
Rev. forecast: 72.7 wins | Monthly change: minus-13.3
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 20 percent | Monthly change: minus-13 percent
The Mariners could turn into major sellers by this time next month, or they could start to resemble the team we thought they'd be before the season if Felix Hernandez and the rest of the rotation can return to action and productivity. Seattle benefits from the lackluster AL wild-card race, but their season could still slip away before their missing players get back on the field.
25. Rev. forecast: 67.7 wins | Monthly change: minus-7.8
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 15 percent | Monthly change: minus-8 percent
The Pirates are only 3½ games out of first in the NL Central. But they are also in last place and have been outscored by 34 runs. They still have a few weeks before suspended outfielder Starling Marte can return. It certainly doesn't look like a contending season for the Bucs, yet the league has kept them in the picture. Count Pittsburgh among the many on-the-fence teams around baseball looking for clarity this month.
Probable sellers
15. Cincinnati Reds
Rev. forecast: 82.4 wins | Monthly change: 7.1
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 8 percent | Monthly change: minus-1 percent
The Reds had a solid month overall in terms of improving their power rating, but those trends were headed in the wrong direction by month's end, and the pitching staff is starting to resemble last year's flammable unit. The good thing about having a rotation this bad is that you don't have to make a home run acquisition to receive a significant upgrade. The Reds need a hot month of hitting and a good month of relief pitching and, who knows, maybe the rotation can be upgraded, from within or without.
22. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Rev. forecast: 72.4 wins | Monthly change: minus-5.0
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 14 percent | Monthly change: minus-10 percent
Without Mike Trout, this offense will be dreadful for the next two months. That takes us up to the trade deadline, by which time the Angels should be out of the race. The big problem for the Angels is this: Even if they go into sell mode, is there anyone beyond Trout that would bring a system-stocking return?
23. Atlanta Braves
Rev. forecast: 71.9 wins | Monthly change: minus-1.4
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 7 percent | Monthly change: minus-2 percent
The Braves seem intent on winning as many games as they can this season. If Atlanta were to make a surprising wild-card push, the addition of Matt Adams could emerge as one of the best in-season moves by anyone as his play has softened the blow from the absence of franchise hitter Freddie Freeman. However, John Coppolella might need to pull off the same trick a couple of more times to boost his rotation if the Braves are to stay afloat.
29. Rev. forecast: 56.2 wins | Monthly change: minus-19.6
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 9 percent | Monthly change: minus-11 percent
The Giants are similar to the Angels in that, because they are fairly old, expensive and built to win this season, the utility of a sell-off for them seems limited. Rather than looking to rebuild, you could see San Francisco behaving like a buyer. The hope would be to unearth a veteran hitter with multiple years left on his deal, not so much to salvage this season, but to position themselves for 2018. The unfortunate thing is that the Giants' best selling point in a trade might be a willingness to absorb money. And it's not clear they're in position to do that.
Open for business
24. Miami Marlins
Rev. forecast: 71.1 wins | Monthly change: minus-8.5
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 5 percent | Monthly change: minus-20 percent
The Marlins' collapse could make them an interesting seller if they decide their minor league system needs an influx of depth and talent. Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon could make interesting trade pieces from the position players. Reliever Brad Ziegler would draw interest as well if he can put together a good month. Overshadowing all of this is the Marlins' in-limbo ownership situation. Is there anyone who will actually be able to sanction a sell-off by the end of July?
26. Rev. forecast: 67.1 wins | Monthly change: minus-5.7
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 4 percent | Monthly change: minus-3 percent
As ESPN's Buster Olney has pointed out, Sonny Gray's re-emergence as a No. 1 starter would change the trade market for the next couple of months. Another A's pitcher to watch is veteran reliever Ryan Madson, who has been lights-out. And Yonder Alonso is a 30-year-old, slick-fielding first baseman who has already hit five more homers than his previous season-high. Seems like a classic sell-high candidate.
27. Rev. forecast: 64.5 wins | Monthly change: minus-13.2
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: zero percent | Monthly change: minus-11 percent
The Phillies' hopes of being a surprising contender have been torpedoed by bad starts from cornerstone hitters Odubel Herrera and Maikel Franco. That's probably for the best for Philadelphia, for which better days lie ahead. The Phillies can safely shop Jeremy Hellickson and see if they can get some kind of return for reliever Pat Neshek.
28. Rev. forecast: 58.3 wins | Monthly change: minus-3.5
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 3 percent | Monthly change: zero percent
It's time to pull the plug on a group that brought winning baseball back to Kansas City. It's sad, but that's baseball. The Royals needed big seasons from Jorge Soler and Alex Gordon. Instead, when they've played, their combined OPS is lower than that of Freddie Freeman or Mike Trout. But, still, the final blow was the loss of Danny Duffy for six to eight weeks with an oblique strain. It's time to build for 2018 and beyond, and the Royals should bring back solid talent for the likes of Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer.
30. San Diego Padres
Rev. forecast: 50.7 wins | Monthly change: minus-9.3
FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 0 percent | Monthly change: minus-4 percent
Lefty reliever Brad Hand is a solid trade chip. Starter Trevor Cahill could be one, too, if he proves his shoulder is sound. Beyond that, the pickings are slim.