If only it were so simple. You have teams vying for postseason spots and possible success after those spots are secured. You have other teams, not in those situations, but hoping to leverage the assets they have to get there in some indefinite future scenario. We call the first group buyers and the latter sellers. All we have to do is bring them together.
If only it were so simple.
In recent weeks, we've started to zero in on baseball's coming trade deadline. First, we slotted teams by their buy-sell-hold status. Then we compiled a long list of possible in-season trade candidates, sorted by the general cost of doing business. Great. It's a start. Now let's take another step and try to bring these two together.
What are the needs of the buying teams? Which players fit those needs? There are many factors, including contract status, payroll flexibility, depth of minor league talent, specificity of the need to be filled, health of the applicable players, what the opposing general managers had for breakfast -- the list is truly inexhaustible. But let's wade in anyway.
Note: It has been a few weeks since we last slotted teams by their buy-hold-sell status. Even 11 weeks into the season, it's a list that ebbs and flows with each day's results. So this list is a mere snapshot -- these are the teams that, per my system of rating teams, are currently in either buy or hold mode. Conveniently, that works out to 15 teams. However, let's face it, some of those hold teams are going to slip and move into sell mode.
So think of it like this: If these teams were to buy, here's what they'd need, and here is whom they might target. If your team isn't listed, that's because, per my system, they figure to be in sell mode.
Needs: infield corners, top-of-the-rotation starter, bullpen depth
Fits: Yonder Alonso, Eduardo Nunez, Jose Quintana, Jason Vargas, Pat Neshek
It doesn't look like any true top-of-the-rotation starter is likely to be moved at the deadline, so the focus goes to guys such as Quintana and Vargas, who at least can imitate an ace for stretches. Vargas has done a good impression of an ace all season, and he's in a walk year, making him a less expensive acquisition than Quintana, who has a plum of a multi-year deal on the books. Chances are, the Yankees will hope for internal solutions at the corners, with the preference at first base being that Greg Bird simply starts to hit. At third, Gleyber Torres would have been a popular option at the hot corner before his season ended prematurely because of Tommy John surgery. Now, any outside acquisition would probably have to be an upgrade going forward on what the Yankees might get by sticking with Chase Headley.
Needs: pitching depth
Fits: Sonny Gray, Jose Quintana, Tommy Kahnle, Ivan Nova, Jason Vargas
Assuming their rotation gets healthy, the Astros are a runaway train with only a few first-world problems looming on the horizon. The first four pitchers listed here have more than one year left of team control, and Houston has the depth of prospects to target such a player. While the Astros could use extra arms in both the rotation and the bullpen, the bullpen seems like the bigger need, if only to give A.J. Hinch plenty of leeway to baby the likes of Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers Jr. down the stretch.
Needs: mid-rotation starter, center field
Fits: Jason Vargas, Jose Quintana, Lorenzo Cain, Yu Darvish, Christian Yelich
Rich Hill's step back might be offset by Alex Wood's emergence, but, still, you can't have too many options for a postseason rotation. You hate to say it, but the Dodgers' biggest hole was filled when Adrian Gonzalez went on the DL, freeing up first base for Cody Bellinger. If A-Gone makes it back healthy, that only makes the Dodgers that much more dangerous. The center-field need could well be nonexistent if Joc Pederson puts it together. This is a deep, balanced team, and general manager Andrew Friedman need not strain his resources to put L.A. in an even stronger position as favorites in the National League.
Needs: rotation depth, bullpen, outfield depth
Fits: Derek Holland, R.A. Dickey, Mike Minor, Juan Nicasio, Rajai Davis
The rotation has been terrific, but a second-tier rental would make sense for a club unlikely to invest much financially for an all-in push this season. Arizona could use more offense from its catchers, but given the way the starters have performed, it's unwise to mess with the Jeff Mathis-led backstop mix. The D-backs have done a solid job of cycling through bullpen arms, but help is needed. Finally, it's not a must, but you'd like to see one more outfield option with a little pop.
Needs: fringe depth, frontline starter
Fits: Sonny Gray, Chris Archer
The Rockies are in good shape, and the needs they do have could be filled by in-house players getting healthy, such as David Dahl, Jon Gray and Tom Murphy. Thus Colorado can target impact starters, insofar as any become available.
Needs: bullpen, center field
Fits: David Robertson, Kelvin Herrera, Lorenzo Cain, Tommy Kahnle, Ryan Madson
The Nationals' glaring need for bullpen help has become one of the more interesting subplots in baseball. Washington is poised to run away with the NL East even as the team is currently constituted, and, with six Nationals ranking in the top 50 in WAR, no one can match that star power. But the Nats simply cannot go into October without significant relief help. If they can net a premier center fielder such as Cain in the process, all the better. The Dodgers and Cubs can nearly go toe-to-toe with Washington in terms of headline talent, and both feature better depth.
Clevelands Indians
Needs: No. 2 starter
Fits: Sonny Gray, Yu Darvish
After sweeping the Twins over the weekend, the Indians look poised to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the AL Central. With the game's best bullpen, Cleveland is one of the few contenders that can focus its attention elsewhere at deadline time. The Indians also seem fixed in terms of position players. That leaves the rotation, which hasn't been terrible and, I'd submit, is likely to perform better going forward than it has to date. Still, finding the right pitcher to slot behind Corey Kluber in a postseason rotation feels like the finishing piece the Indians need.
Needs: high-leverage relief
Fits: Juan Nicasio, Mike Minor, Pat Neshek, Anthony Swarzak, Addison Reed
If the Brewers end up in the buy group, it'll be because a starting rotation that has been one of baseball's best since the beginning of May continues to perform at a high level. Jimmy Nelson and Chase Anderson have emerged as a lights-out duo, in case you haven't noticed. The weak points among the position group to date have been center field and second base, and Milwaukee can reasonably expect those spots to ascend as Jonathan Villar and either Keon Broxton or prospect Lewis Brinson round into form. What would remain would be the need to find relief help for Corey Knebel.
Needs: third base
Fits: Mike Moustakas, Yangervis Solarte, David Freese, Todd Frazier
The Red Sox rank dead last in third-base WAR, so the question is, how long can Boston wait for in-house options to plug the gap? When you are strong everywhere else and so far below replacement at your sore spot, it doesn't take much to stop the bleeding.
Needs: bullpen
Fits: Tommy Kahnle, Anthony Swarzak, Pat Neshek, Mike Minor, Ryan Madson
Other than the Cubs, the teams from here on out could just as easily end up as sellers as buyers. The Rangers need some consistency at a couple of lineup spots, namely those held down by Rougned Odor and Mike Napoli. And they could use a healthy second half from Adrian Beltre. Even if that happens, Texas needs to have the same kind of second-half production from its bullpen as it had last season. Otherwise, Texas might be enticed to go into sell mode, which would mean a lot of attention on free-agent-to-be starter Yu Darvish.
Needs: bullpen
Fits: Tommy Kahnle, Anthony Swarzak, Pat Neshek, Mike Minor, Ryan Madson
The Rays are in a near-identical spot as Texas, not to mention a slew of others in the AL wild-card quagmire. Though unlike most of those other teams, the Rays figure to stay in the chase. Unlike Texas, the Rays can deal a starting pitcher for significant help. You could see them targeting multiple bullpen pieces in the same trade.
Needs: pitching
Fits: Sonny Gray, Yu Darvish, Pat Neshek, Ryan Madson, Mike Minor
It seems highly likely that Cubs fans will be saying goodbye to a beloved young position player in exchange for some needed help for the pitching staff. A controllable starter such as Gray, assuming his stuff looks ready for at least the mid-rotation, would be ideal.
Needs: doesn't matter
Fits: not applicable
Sure, it's possible the Tigers hang in the playoff chase and try to add a fringe relief pitcher or even a starter. But it very much feels like the Tigers' current roster needs to make a push or the promised tear down will kick into high gear.
Needs: doesn't matter
Fits: not applicable
The White Sox seem like a clear sell team, except that their run differential keeps propping up their playoff probabilities to the point that you can't completely rule out the need to add. Still, that outcome would be counterproductive. Chicago has stayed admirably competitive, and that's a credit to Rick Renteria and his players. But this organization should, and almost certainly will, continue to follow the path it started down over the winter.
Needs: first base
Fits: Eric Hosmer, Yonder Alonso, David Freese, Lucas Duda
The Mariners' playoff odds, which looked strong entering the season, continue to wane. Still, this is a club whose talent core is very much in the win-now age profile. If the rotation gets healthy and starts to roll, Seattle remains capable of going on a spree. But it needs to happen quickly for the Mariners to start shopping for an impact rental, such as those listed here.