Last week, we slotted teams into tiers based on how likely they are to buy or sell at the looming trade deadline. Today, it's the players' turn.
There are countless variables when it comes to teams' moving players during the season. Just to list a few: Years and money left on the contracts in question. Quality of the players. Evaluation of other teams' prospects. Number of teams buying and selling in the marketplace. Soundness of the decision-making processes of the executives in discussion. Every deal is different, and so is every season's trade period.
Those factors are somewhat complicated this summer because it's the first deadline period under the new collective bargaining agreement. That deal, which changes the way teams are compensated for departing free agents, could result in more action come the end of July, as teams out of contention will look to get some return on players expected to depart after the season. Or maybe it won't work that way at all. At this point, we don't know.
With that in mind, we've attempted to slot trade candidates into four tiers. Each tier has a fairly specific definition, along with the kind of return it can be expected to bring. That return can vary wildly from player to player, so keep that in mind. By this method, if we were to throw Mike Trout in as a trade candidate, the expected return would be far more than what's listed here. But these general parameters reasonably describe how the market has behaved in recent years for in-season swaps.
Who is in this pool of players? The probable free-agents-to-be from selling teams are the easy ones, and they fall into one of two tiers reserved for rentals. Only the free agents from clear buyers have been omitted, though sometimes players meeting that description get traded, too. The players in the other tiers have been identified somewhat subjectively, based on their teams' buy or sell probabilities and the needs of various organizations to reboot. Most of these names have popped up on the rumor mill at one time or another. However, there is no way to make an exhaustive list of trade candidates. Pretty much all players, at some level, are trade candidates, so don't be surprised if and when a player not listed here ends up being dealt.
Also, we're slotting only players currently on 40-man rosters; no prospects are included in this exercise. Contract data used here and the list of potential free agents were taken from Baseball Prospectus. Some of the possible free agents have contract options that will be decided after the season (noted in parentheses), so they might not be rental players in the purest sense. Some players are currently battling injuries that might affect their trade value.
Finally, players within each tier are listed in order of their Wins Above Replacement (per Fangraphs.com) thus far in 2017, so the listed order might not reflect the actual value players have in the marketplace.
TIER I: SYSTEM-STOCKERS
Definition: Key veterans with more than one year left on their current deals or more than one year of arbitration eligibility remaining.
Expected return: Two to three upper-tier prospects or pre-arb players, plus at least one lower-tier prospect.
Example: In 2015, the Phillies traded Jake Diekman, Cole Hamels and cash to the Rangers for Nick Williams, Alec Asher, Jorge Alfaro, Jerad Eickhoff, Matt Harrison and Jake Thompson.
These are the plums, a group mostly comprising productive veterans of various impact who will be under team control beyond this season. This tier is where the highest-impact relievers can be found.
The Marlins listed here -- Ozuna, Realmuto, Yelich, Ramos and Prado -- are very good, young players who probably have yet to peak. Their names have been floated in recent weeks because of Miami's need to restock the minor league system. However, you have to wonder what any group vying to purchase the Marlins would think of the team's off-loading prime assets just before a sale.
Finally, although there is decent starting pitching in a couple of the lower tiers, the starters in this group -- especially Archer, Gray, Cole and Odorizzi -- would be the most likely to net a higher prospect return because of their ages and remaining years of team control.
TIER II: MONEY-EATERS
Definition: Veterans with big contracts who could be moved to free up payroll.
Expected return: One or two prospects is most likely, and the quality is often dependent on how much money the team off-loading the veteran is willing to eat.
Example: In 2016, the Padres traded James Shields and cash to the White Sox for Fernando Tatis Jr. and Erik Johnson.
1. Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks, SP (2.1)
2. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins, RF (1.4)
Yeah, it's a two-player tier, and neither one of them is particularly likely to be traded, though their names have come up in rumors this season. Arizona is positioned for a playoff push, which would make it hard to trade Greinke. So, too, would be the amount of money the Diamondbacks would have to eat to strike a deal. Still, after last season's bummer and the huge percentage that Greinke's salary eats on a limited Arizona payroll, this might be the perfect time to move him.
You never know. Stanton has the game's richest future contract and no-trade protection. He isn't going anywhere if he doesn't want to, and if you want to ask him to leave, you're a brave individual.
However, if the Marlins start dealing players such as Ozuna and Yelich, Stanton, 27, might not want to stick around. Even if that happens, finding a team willing to take on Stanton's contract in-season might be a tough task.
TIER III: RENTALS I
Definition: Impact veterans in the last year of their contracts.
Expected return: One or two upper-tier prospects nearing big league readiness or pre-arb players, plus at least one lower-tier prospect.
Example: In 2015, the Royals traded Aaron Brooks and Sean Manaea to the Athletics for Ben Zobrist and cash.
When the Reds moved Brandon Phillips before the season, it seemed like it would make sense for them to do the same with Cozart, as they turn the middle of the infield over to Jose Peraza and Dilson Herrera. But Cozart has responded with a monster start, and that's no small reason why Cincinnati is hanging around in the NL Central. This is a real sell-high opportunity for Dick Williams, but it'll be tough to pull the trigger if the Reds continue to hover around contention. Herrera isn't having a particularly good season in Triple-A, which doesn't help.
After that, what jumps out in this tier, which comprises players near at least one win above replacement, are the names of some of those starting pitchers: Estrada. Darvish. Cueto. Bumgarner. Could the Giants really deal MadBum? Probably not. Darvish, on the other hand, will be a fascinating case if the Rangers continue to play under .500.
TIER IV: RENTALS II
Definition: Role-playing veterans in the last year of their contracts.
Expected return: One or two lower-tier prospects or cash.
Example: In 2016, the Angels traded Joe Smith to the Cubs for Jesus Castillo.
It's a long list, of course, and invariably, this will be the tier from which the most players get moved. A number of these players probably have a perceived value in the marketplace that's higher than the value they've produced on the field so far in 2017. On that list are Lance Lynn and, possibly, former MVP Andrew McCutchen.
Another thing that sticks out from these last two tiers is a general lack of high-impact closers who are candidates as rentals in the way that Mark Melancon and Aroldis Chapman were last season.