Every year during spring training, writers, analysts and fans all try to predict baseball's final standings. Some people pick blind or follow their gut, but it has become more common to start by looking at projections. There are several different projection systems floating around, and they're generally good. I've collected such projections dating back to 2005, which gives me 12 seasons of 30 projections each, or 360 projections total. The top third of teams averaged 89 projected wins and delivered 88 actual wins. The middle third averaged 81 projected wins and collected 81 actual wins. The bottom third averaged 73 projected wins and notched 73 actual wins.
So projections have substance. At FanGraphs we project our standings based on a 50/50 even blend of two individual projection systems. That gives us these projected wins:
The teams are in much the same order as they were a year ago, but inevitably there are going to be differences in the way things play out, which is fun to try to predict. I asked the FanGraphs audience where it disagrees, and the community thinks the projections are too low on the Colorado Rockies and too high on the Oakland Athletics.
Many an analyst has been tripped up trying to outsmart the math, so I'm proceeding here at my own risk, but I have some disagreements -- with both the projections and FanGraphs' readers. So let's get into why I think the projections are too low on the A's, Baltimore Orioles and Rockies while being optimistic about the Los Angeles Angels, St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals.
Let's break these down:
• With the A's, it's about the depth and potential quality of their pitching. The staff is easy to overlook because its two most recognizable stars -- Sonny Gray and Sean Doolittle -- have recently dealt with injuries, but both appear to be back to normal. Doolittle at his fastball-ing best is a first-tier closer, and Gray prevented runs like a No. 1 starter over three seasons before last. Grant health to those two and they're capable staff leaders.
Beyond them, looking at both the rotation and bullpen, the A's could be deep. They have six or seven big league starters, including Sean Manaea, Jharel Cotton and -- as one of my personal favorite breakout picks -- Andrew Triggs. In the pen, Doolittle is backed by Liam Hendriks, Ryan Dull, John Axford, Santiago Casilla and Ryan Madson. FanGraphs projects the A's to have the 17th-best pitching staff, worth about 16 wins above replacement. I'd put them at least closer to 18 or 19 fWAR, which would have them in the vicinity of MLB's top 10.
On the position player side, it's clear the A's won't play outstanding defense and their collection of players lacks an obvious star. Yet there is a certain slugger in Khris Davis, and last year Matt Joyce, Ryon Healy and even supersub Adam Rosales all changed their approaches to generate more power. If those changes stick, the offense should be good enough for the pitching to carry. I'm looking for the A's to overachieve by four or five wins.
• Moving over to the Orioles, their secret weapon has been the bullpen, as Sam Miller just wrote. Manager Buck Showalter's relievers have been the biggest reason why the team has consistently outperformed expectations. I don't think this season will be any different because the current group is littered with guys coming at you with different angles and ways of getting hitters out. Zach Britton, you know, and there might not be anyone better. Brad Brach isn't as good, but he's fantastic. Darren O'Day has a 2.19 ERA since 2009. Among Baltimore's less familiar assets, Mychal Givens is one of the game's better weapons against tough righties. Newly acquired Richard Bleier has been statistical death on lefties, same with Donnie Hart. Oliver Drake can't stop recording strikeouts.
Admittedly, the Orioles' rotation remains paper-thin, and their homer-happy lineup is short on athleticism. But the bullpen should again be one of the very best. The Orioles will beat their projection by three or four wins.
• That brings us to the Rockies. This feels like the year they get back into the playoff hunt. They also deserve some extra credit for their bullpen. Last season, the Rockies' pen finished dead last in win probability added (a performance metric that also considers game context), so their bullpen was bad news. Now they have Greg Holland (presumably healthy) to pair with the tremendously underrated Adam Ottavino. That's two guys recovering from Tommy John surgery, so there's some uncertainty, but the upside is a dynamite one-two punch, to say nothing of Jake McGee's bounce-back potential.
The rotation is deeper than usual, and homegrown, and the entire staff ought to benefit from Tony Wolters' pitch-framing. There isn't a single liability among the position players -- Nolan Arenado is a star, and other players could be. Both Charlie Blackmon and DJ LeMahieu just experienced power breakouts, and Ian Desmond should be fine, if weirdly utilized at first base. I don't see the Rockies pushing for the division title, but the Giants will have to watch their backs in the NL's wild-card chase. The Rockies should exceed their projection by something like four wins.
• Turning to the un-fun side of things, I see the Angels more as cellar-dwellers. They won't be terrible, but they're extremely light on pitching depth. I'm encouraged by Garrett Richards' nonsurgical rehab, and Matt Shoemaker should be ready to go on the other side of brain surgery. But Richards and Tyler Skaggs will have to be closely monitored and carefully used.
The bullpen won't provide a ton of relief. Even if you grant that Cam Bedrosian is good, contenders around the league have been assembling bullpen depth, while the Angels just have Bedrosian, Huston Street and Andrew Bailey. But Street was far too hittable in 2016, and Bailey left his strikeouts behind in 2013. It's true that bullpens can be a team's least predictable component, but the Angels' crew doesn't look good.
At least Mike Trout is Mike Trout; he's two All-Stars in one. I like Kole Calhoun, too, so the Angels should score some runs. Better defense was an offseason priority, which the pitchers will appreciate. But as propositions go, it's just all so fragile. Richards and Skaggs need to be 100 percent all season for this team to contend, and even that might not be enough. It will be a struggle for the Angels to hang near .500.
• Picking the Cardinals to come up short might be a cheap shot, since they just lost Alex Reyes to injury. It also might be stupid, since they haven't finished under .500 since 2007. But I just can't bring myself to entirely trust their starting rotation, and the infield defense hasn't gotten better. Adding Dexter Fowler makes the team more athletic, but he doesn't solve everything by himself.
Even if Reyes wasn't going to make the rotation right away, he was an option they no longer have and probably needed. Adam Wainwright has lost some of his shine with age, and Mike Leake is just what he has always been. Lance Lynn missed all of last season, and Michael Wacha can't escape problems with his shoulder. So the rotation has one clear quality starter and question marks. The bullpen is better, but it might not be enough.
At least the Cards' hitters will hit. While the Cardinals should be considered a machine until proved otherwise, it can't be much longer until we have proof. Right now, they strike me as a .500 team.
• Finally, I'm intentionally picking against the Royals, who are already projected to be bad. I've written a lot about the Royals, and something I've noticed is that they just don't look like themselves anymore. In part out of necessity, they've had to move away from contact hitting and bullpen depth. The bullpen is now remarkably thin behind Kelvin Herrera, and the rotation has plenty of questions after Danny Duffy, who's less than proven himself.
While familiar position players remain, Alex Gordon has started striking out too much, and Lorenzo Cain gave back many of his offensive gains from 2015. Eric Hosmer can't get enough batted balls off the ground, and I'm not entirely sure how well Mike Moustakas comes back from tearing his ACL. The defense is still good, but the offense isn't and the bullpen is no longer capable of covering that up. Barring a big surprise, I see the Royals finishing closer to 70 wins than 75.
I said earlier that trying to beat the math can be a fool's errand. I continue to believe that, but I also believe in experimentation, which is essentially what this is. I see more reasons to be optimistic about the A's, Orioles and Rockies, and not so much with the Angels, Cardinals and Royals. Perhaps this effort will slop, but either way I know I'll try again in a year -- it's far too tempting not to.