While players on the Kansas City Royals ended their season happily drenched with beverages of a bubbly nature, most MLB players didn't end the season on such a high note. In fact, for some players, 2015 was simply a year to forget. Fortunately for them, the start of the 2016 season is just more than a month away, providing them a natural opportunity to wipe away the memories of the previous season.
Whether you call it a bounce-back season, a comeback year or, as legendary baseball writer Bill James refers to it, the Plexiglass Principle, everybody loves a tale of redemption. After all, when was the last sports movie you saw that involved the heroes going wire-to-wire and coasting to a championship win?
With that, here are my eight picks to have happier 2016 seasons.
Jeff Samardzija, SP
San Francisco Giants
2015 WAR: 0.2
Projected 2016 WAR: 3.0
More 2016 projections: 196 IP, 3.31 ERA, 180 K's
Seeing an opportunity to push themselves to the top of the American League Central in 2015, the White Sox made one of their biggest splashes in years, acquiring Samardzija from the Oakland Athletics to join Chris Sale at the top of a rotation that needed another big-name pitcher. Coming off a 2014 season in which he had a 2.99 ERA, 202 strikeouts and his first All-Star appearance, the White Sox were delighted to acquire one year of a top starter without decimating their farm system.
Instead, the White Sox won only 76 games, and the Shark played a big part in them underachieving; he allowed a career-high (and AL-high) 29 home runs while amassing a 4.96 ERA, easily the worst of his career as a full-time starter.
It's too late for the White Sox to get any benefit from Samardzija outside of the draft-pick compensation they got from him signing elsewhere -- they had given him a qualifying offer -- but the Giants are all-in on him with a five-year, $90 million contract; they're no doubt expecting a bounce-back -- and I agree with them. AT&T Park and its large outfield is a homer-sapping park if you're not named Barry Bonds, and two-thirds of that outfield will be patrolled by Denard Span, who has always been a solid defensive center fielder when healthy, and Angel Pagan, now stretched in center but likely to be much more comfortable in left at this stage in his career.
Robinson Cano, 2B
Seattle Mariners
2015 WAR: 3.4
Projected 2016 WAR: 3.9
More 2016 projections: .292/.349/.439, 17 homers, 124 OPS+
I'm not projecting much of a WAR hike in 2016, but keep in mind Cano's 2015 season was an epic disaster until he posted a .331/.387/.540 line in the second half to bring his numbers back to respectability. Cano's second-half resurgence also came with recovered plate discipline after a first-half strikeout-to-walk ratio of nearly 4-1, an astounding ratio for a player who struck out only 68 times against 61 walks in 2014.
So the big question is which Cano is the real one? Here, ZiPS takes the middle ground, expecting a somewhat better performance in 2016 compared to his 2015 final numbers, yet one that pales in comparison to in-his-prime Cano. There are obvious reasons for concern considering Cano is 33 and middle infielders sometimes drop off very quickly in their mid-30s. And even the sports-hernia surgery stemming from abdominal issues he played through in 2015 fails to provide an easy explanation for his first half; after all, he played through it in the second half and hit just fine.
But I'm more optimistic than the computer is here. Cano is not a one-dimensional hacker who relies on bat speed making up for an undisciplined approach. Rather, he's one of the most accomplished pure hitters of this generation, so I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. And for all the soft grounders he hit the first month of the season, he still got his hard-hit percentage back up to 32.4 percent for the season, nearly identical to his career 32.8 percent mark. I'd tack on a full win to his ZiPS projection.
Hanley Ramirez, 1B/OF
Boston Red Sox
2015 WAR: minus-1.3
Projected 2016 WAR: 1.7
More 2016 projections: .277/.358/.449, 13 homers, 119 OPS+
Well, that didn't work. Ramirez was never a great shortstop defensively, but he at least had enough athleticism to do a decent job faking the position for a number of years. Moved to left field as a result of some very odd roster shenanigans by the Red Sox last offseason, despite the position traditionally being much easier to play, Ramirez displayed the instincts of a jack-o-lantern there, leaving Red Sox fans pining for even Manny Ramirez's defense. If he had hit like prime Manny, all would have been forgiven, but he hit more like you'd expect the current (43-year-old) Manny to hit.
But there's still hope for Hanley, and I think Boston is far more likely to see him salvage his contract than Pablo Sandoval. Hanley is moving back to the infield, working at first base, and the hope is that a move from the dreaded outfield will get him back to the levels of defensive adequacy. Even if he's not the athlete he once was, it's too early to think the drop-off in his BABIP from .323 to .257 is something that will persist.
Yasiel Puig, OF
Los Angeles Dodgers
2015 WAR: 1.1
Projected 2016 WAR: 3.5
More 2016 projections: .276/.350/.471, 19 homers, 129 OPS+
An injured hamstring limited Puig to 79 games in 2015, but it can't take all the blame for Puig's missing bat; he posted a disappointing .758 OPS after putting up.925 and .863 marks, respectively, in his first two major league seasons despite very little minor league experience after coming over from Cuba. Bat flips just aren't as cool when you're en route to a 1.1-WAR season.
Despite the setbacks, Puig is still a young player, just 25 for the entirety of the 2016 season, and a good young player who just had a poor season makes for an excellent candidate to have a better one. He remains a phenomenally talented player with one of the most amazingly torque-heavy swings you'll ever see, and while his maturity may not fully arrive, I think the performance will. And luckily for Puig, he plays for an organization not prone to irrational panic.
James Shields, SP
San Diego Padres
2015 WAR: 1.8
Projected 2016 WAR: 2.6
More 2016 projections: 185 2/3 IP, 3.54 ERA, 181 K's
I absolutely hated the Matt Kemp trade in December 2014 -- I didn't see things going well for him in San Diego -- but I can't claim to have seen Shields' disappointing 2015 season coming. While a 3.91 ERA doesn't look bad on its face and he remained healthy, a 3.91 ERA isn't actually all that good for a player pitching half his games at Petco Park; his ERA+ of 93 indicates he wasn't even league average for a starting pitcher. The only worse season for Shields was a similarly awful 2010, and I expect him to rebound for a second time in 2016. He's unlikely to have an 18 percent HR/FB ratio again anytime soon, and that was a big reason his 2015 season was such a disaster. Sure, he also had a blip in his walk rate, but it wasn't all bad news, as his strikeouts took a similar jump, with Shields even setting a career high for swinging-strike percentage.
As with Cano, I'm more optimistic than the projections system. The Padres likely will be fighting to stay out of last place, but this time around, it shouldn't be Shields' fault that they're in that spot.
Jonathan Lucroy, C
Milwaukee Brewers
2015 WAR: 1.0
Projected 2016 WAR: 3.3
More 2016 projections: .276/.340/.415, 9 homers, 106 OPS+
I really hate the "best shape of his life" stories we see for seemingly 95 percent of MLB players going into spring training, but Lucroy may actually be in the best shape of his life this spring. While Lucroy has been vocal about his lack of desire to be around for a whole rebuilding phase in Milwaukee, he also spent the offseason undertaking a new intense workout regimen with the help of his brother.
But it won't be a feel-good story that makes Lucroy have a better season, simply the reality that the issues of his 2015 concussion and broken toe are behind him and that this is a player who is just a year away from hitting .301/.373/.465, leading the National League in doubles and finishing fourth in the NL MVP voting. Lucroy isn't even 30 yet, and it's way too soon to write him off.
Victor Martinez, DH
Detroit Tigers
2015 WAR: minus-1.6
Projected 2016 WAR: 1.3
More 2016 projections: .279/.338/.451, 18 homers, 116 OPS+
Like this edition of the Tigers, Martinez's best years are behind him. At 37, it's very possible that his drop off the cliff in 2015 is so severe that he'll never climb back up. This wasn't a blip after all, but a drop of more than 300 OPS points from his .335/.409/.565 2014 season. V-Mart is unlikely to ever put up a line like that again, but the Tigers need more from the position in 2016, and if they don't get it from Martinez, they likely won't get it elsewhere.
Yordano Ventura, SP
Kansas City Royals
2015 WAR: 1.9
Projected 2016 WAR: 2.8
More 2016 projections: 175 IP, 3.70 ERA, 164 K's
Ventura was one of the players mentioned up top who ended the season dripping in champagne, but he didn't play a big part in the team's victory, finishing off a disappointing sophomore season with a 6.43 ERA in his five postseason starts. At one point in 2015, with his ERA sitting at 5.19, he was even optioned to the minors, only getting a quick reprieve because of a Jason Vargas injury.
In the end, Ventura did get his ERA back down to 4.08 for the season, and his 3.57 FIP was actually better than his 3.60 mark as a rookie in 2014. In other words, there were indications that he was pitching much better than his results suggested. With his 80-grade fastball (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and an improved curveball that played a big part in his solid end to the regular season, I think Ventura will bounce back, fulfill his potential and be one of the best pitchers in baseball over the next decade. Maybe I'm getting ahead of myself here; I'll settle for him just having a better 2016 and becoming K.C.'s best pitcher.