Giant Killers: Midwest Region

West | South | East | Midwest

Sunday night, we brought you the news that the NCAA selection committee, working from an applicant pool already weakened by conference tournament upsets, has handed down a weak field of Giant Killers for 2014. Nevertheless, it's time to move beyond our list of the 10 most likely round of 64 upsets and go prospecting in this year's brackets.

For each of the four regions, we'll break down the six Giant vs. Killer matchups. (Remember, a Giant Killer is any team that beats an opponent seeded at least five spots higher. See our full methodology here for more details.)

Per tradition, we have divided the games among four categories: Best Bets, Worth A Long Look, Not Completely Crazy and Stay Away. We can't tell you exactly how to play your brackets; that depends on how much upsets are worth in your pool. But we can give you the odds of upsets, based on statistical analysis that begins with teams' basic power ratings, layers in their "Secret Sauce" -- their statistical similarity to past Davids and Goliaths -- and adjusts further for the matchup of their playing styles.

Stick with us. We will cover the Midwest and South on Monday, the East and West on Tuesday, and look ahead to future rounds on Wednesday.

In a year when the Giant Killing cupboard is thinly stocked, here's the region that contains the country's two best bets for big upsets.

Best Bets

No. 6 Massachusetts Minutemen (67.6 Giant Rating on a scale from zero to 100) vs.
No. 11 Iowa Hawkeyes (35.9 Giant Killer rating) or No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers (34.1)
Iowa's upset chance: 78.4 percent
Tennessee's upset chance: 70.1 percent

If our model had chips, it would shove them all to the middle of the table. In a bracket filled with uncharacteristically weak Giant Killers and poor matchups to boot, our top two GK candidates in the 11-to-16 seed range will play each other for the right to take on one of the most vulnerable Giants. Last year, we faced a similar scenario when Minnesota took on UCLA, and the Gophers made the model look smart. This year, it's just as confident that whichever middling power-conference team advances Wednesday night will take out UMass on Friday.

The underlying reason is quite simple: UMass is overseeded; Iowa and Tennessee are underseeded. Our model's simple power rating system ranks UMass as just the 48th-best team in the country. Iowa, meanwhile, is all the way up at No. 14; Tennessee checks in at No. 22. So, even in a conventional matchup, the Hawkeyes and Vols are the better teams. And that's critical, because as strange as it sounds, our model's "Secret Sauce" -- how much a team resembles historically successful Killers or vulnerable Giants -- actually favors UMass. The Minutemen may not be a particularly strong team, but they play the way a Giant should in some key categories. They grab 34.4 percent of available offensive rebounds (77th in the country), force an above-average percentage of turnovers (18.8) and keep their opponents off the line.

More interestingly, neither Iowa nor Tennessee profiles as a traditional Killer. The Vols absolutely maul teams on the offensive glass -- Jarnell Stokes and Jeronne Maymon both rank among kenpom.com's top 17 players in offensive rebound percentage, which is huge for a Giant Killer. But they are reluctant 3-point shooters (30.6 percent of attempts) and rarely gamble on defense (17.2 percent turnover rate). Iowa, meanwhile, has wasted the nation's fourth-most efficient offense (an adjusted 120.1 points per 100 possessions) through a defense that's softer than SMU's nonconference schedule. And while Iowa, like Tennessee, kills it on the offensive boards (38.1 percent), the Hawkeyes shoot even fewer 3s on a per-possession basis. Iowa does get a boost from a D that steals the ball 10.2 percent of the time, led by Roy Devyn Marble's 1.8 swipes per game.

Both upstarts, though, are aided by the model's newest trick: cluster analysis. UMass profiles as a "Jim Boeheim Giant," relying on offensive rebounding and perimeter D, while struggling on the defensive boards. Historically, those teams have struggled against plodding Killers that play outstanding perimeter D, a group we've named "Jim Larranaga Killers." And wouldn't you know it? Tennessee falls right into that category. Iowa, on the other hand, is a "Kenneth Faried Killer," succeeding based on offensive boards and pressure D. They, too, tend to over-perform against the Boeheim-style Giants. So our model gives Iowa a boost, too.

This is already a trendy upset pick, and that's for a good reason. UMass just isn't that good, according to our model. And Iowa and Tennessee are.

No. 12 Xavier Musketeers (16.0) vs. No. 5 Saint Louis Billikens (62.5)
Upset chance: 48.7 percent

The Billikens landed a 5-seed, higher than Connecticut, Harvard, North Carolina, Oklahoma State ... what, did the NCAA selection committee stop watching the A-10 on Presidents Day? St. Louis is a top-10 team on defense, but throws the ball away on 18.6 percent of possessions (ranking 193rd in the NCAA) and grabs rebounds on just 29.2 percent of missed shots (ranking 245th). That means as smart as St. Louis plays, when the Billikens blow a lead, as they have against Duquesne, Dayton and St. Bonaventure in the past month, too often they just don't have the possessions they need to climb back into the game. Xavier is better than any of those opponents. The Musketeers are not a great Killer, just a team that our model sees as just about as good as the Billikens.

Worth A Long Look

No. 12 North Carolina State Wolfpack (5.0) vs. No. 5 Saint Louis Billikens (62.5)
Upset chance: 26.6 percent

The Billikens' other potential foe isn't quite as strong an upset bet. Shooting 51.3 percent on 2s and grabbing 34.8 percent of missed shots, the tall Wolfpack score 61.6 percent of their points inside, one of the most extreme tilts in the country (ranking fourth). Add in turnovers on just 15.9 percent of possessions (ranking 34th), and NC State's offense is very efficient -- but not effective for a Killer. Ultraconservative play that forgoes takeaways (turnovers on just 17.6 percent of opponent possessions, ranking 228th) is no way to take down a better team. And whereas the Wolfpack under Mark Gottfried have never been big on bombs, at least last season, with Scott Wood, the Pack could drain them when they needed 'em (39.1 percent on 3s, ranking 11th). Now, they're shooting only 30.3 percent from downtown (ranking 325th). St. Louis is a flawed Giant; our model sees NC State as a much more seriously flawed Killer.

Not Completely Crazy

No. 3 Duke Blue Devils (94.6) vs. No. 14 Mercer Bears (7.2)
Upset chance: 7.4 percent

This is a tale of two teams whose ratings don't necessarily match perceptions. Duke would seem to be fairly vulnerable. The Blue Devils lack size. They struggle to get stops. They barely beat Vermont at home. But, in fact, they rate as one of the safest Giants in the field. Much of that strength is built on the back of a simple power rating that ranks fourth in our model -- behind only Louisville, Arizona and Florida. But Duke also is subtly excellent on the offensive glass (it grabs 35.1 percent of its own misses, 55th in the country), does a solid job of keeping opponents off the foul line and forces an above-average percentage of turnovers, traits that make the Blue Devils similar to historically safe Giants, thus generating a strong "Secret Sauce." Additionally, Duke allows the third fewest 3-point attempts in the country as a percentage of overall shots. While that doesn't show up as statistically significant against all Giant Killers, it should be a valuable skill against one that shoots a lot of treys.

Mercer is just such a team. The Bears take 37.2 percent of their shots from downtown, a hallmark of strong Killers and the 72nd-highest percentage in the country. The Bears also force a greater percentage of turnovers on D than Duke does (19.2 percent of possessions) and are above average on the offensive glass with 6-foot-11 Monty Brown and 6-10 Daniel Coursey. Yet their Killer rating indicates that they'd beat a generic Giant just 7.2 percent of the time. Why? They're not an especially strong team, ranking just 94th in overall power rating. The model also penalizes them for a schedule that ranked 293rd in the country. And Mercer isn't particularly efficient at either end -- just 116th on offense and 103rd on defense, per kenpom.com.

Instead, what gives Mercer the best chance is the new cluster analysis. Duke profiles as a "Jim Boeheim Giant." Mercer is a "Steph Curry Killer" -- a sharpshooting bunch. History shows that Steph Curry Killers tend to over-perform against JB Giants. It doesn't always result in an upset, but it's a good matchup. And that's why Mercer has, at least, a fighting chance.

Stay Away

No. 16 Cal-Poly Mustangs (4.3) or Texas Southern Tigers (1.0) vs. No 1. Wichita State Shockers
Cal-Poly's chance: 4.8 percent
Texas Southern's chance: 1.5 percent

Wichita State has much bigger problems to worry about in this bracket than the 16-seeds, who shouldn't give the Shockers much trouble. Cal-Poly is better than its 13-19 record, but that doesn't mean it's good; the Mustangs are, in fact, exactly middling, at par with the average NCAA team, according to our basic power rankings. The Mustangs' hallmarks are never turning the ball over and playing at a crawl. Combine that with some scoring, and you could stir up a threat to a Giant, but while Cal-Poly shot 37.1 percent from behind the arc in 2013, this season they rank 213th in the NCAA in 3-point shooting ... and 328th from inside. Ouch.

As for Texas Southern, we're not going to harsh on the Tigers for ranking 252nd in our basic power ratings. The Tigers have the most experienced squad in the country, with six seniors, including Lawrence Johnson-Danner, who has shot 36.8 percent on 3s (223-for-606) for his career and played for the 2011 Tigers, a team that got knocked out of an NCAA berth by a terrible Alabama State squad. Welcome back to the Big Dance, Lawrence.

No. 2 Michigan Wolverines (77.3) vs. No. 15 Wofford Terriers (3.3)
Upset chance: 3.5 percent

Michigan would be vulnerable against a high-quality GK. Instead, the Wolverines will face Wofford. The Terriers are carrying something on the order of plastic straws to a "300" battle scene. Ready to generate some extra possessions on the offensive boards? Nope, they rank 186th in the country. Prepared to bomb away? Sorry, only 29.5 percent of their shots come from deep. Wofford does play slowly (as does Michigan, which could keep the game closer for a while) and forces turnovers on 19.7 percent of possessions. But John Beilein's team, which always features four perimeter players on the floor at once, handles the ball exceptionally well, turning it over just 14.8 percent of the time.

Michigan is vulnerable because it rarely forces a turnover or grabs an offensive board. And the Wolverines, much like Duke, offset a top-notch offense with a porous defense -- just 104th in the country in adjusted efficiency. Wofford, even with Karl Cochran doing a little bit of everything, just isn't built to capitalize. But stay tuned later this week, because we'll take a closer look at whether either of Michigan's potential opponents in the next round have those kinds of chops.

No. 13 Manhattan Jaspers (8.5) vs. No. 4 Louisville Cardinals (98.2)
Upset chance: 3.0 percent

Let's pause here to note that in the past two days, Louisville climbed to the No. 1 spot in our basic power rankings. Rick Pitino's squad is playing the style he loves almost perfectly: forcing steals (14.6 percent of opponent possessions, second best in the country), shutting down the perimeter (allowing opponents to shoot just 29.1 percent on 3s, ranking fourth) and grabbing offensive rebounds. That means the Cardinals improve their strength by 9.9 points of "Secret Sauce" against Killers, the most of any Giant, giving Louisville the highest Giant rating in the country. Nice move putting them on the 4-line, NCAA! Under Pitino disciple Steve Masiello, Manhattan has tried to play the same way, with considerable regular-season success. But while the Jaspers actually match up pretty well here, our model sees a difference of nearly 28 points between these teams.