Giant Killers: West Region

West | South | East | Midwest

For each of the four regions, we'll break down the six Giant vs. Killer matchups. (Remember, a Giant Killer is any team that beats an opponent seeded at least five spots higher. See our full methodology here for more details.)

Per tradition, we have divided the games among four categories: Best Bets, Worth a Long Look, Not Completely Crazy and Stay Away. We can't tell you exactly how to play your brackets; that depends on how much upsets are worth in your pool. But we can give you the odds of upsets, based on statistical analysis that begins with teams' basic power ratings and layers in their "special sauce" (their statistical similarity to past Davids and Goliaths) and adjusts further for the matchup of their playing styles.

We covered the Midwest and South on Monday, have the East and West on Tuesday and look ahead to future rounds on Wednesday.

Here are matchups to watch in the West Region ...

Best Bet

No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners (Giant rating: 66.2) vs. No. 12 North Dakota State Bison (Giant Killer rating: 14.5)
Upset chance: 34.1 percent

North Dakota State is a classic example of what we call a "schoolyard bully" -- a team built to dominate inferior conference competition and earn NCAA berths, but unlikely to stand up to the big boys. These squads protect the ball, shoot smart and mostly from the inside, and work the defensive boards, all at a slow pace, while avoiding the risks involved in pressing for turnovers or crashing the offensive glass -- a model Bucknell took to an extreme last season. Problem is, safe play is usually no way for an underdog to beat a Giant; Killers usually need some 3-pointers or steals or boards in their special sauce to spice up their game against superior opposition.

But there's just not that much of a gap between the Bison and Oklahoma. The Sooners don't belong on the 5-line; they're the 34th-ranked team in the country, according to our basic power rankings. Further, while the Sooners can score with anybody (116.9 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for strength of schedule, ranking 13th in the NCAA), they are mediocre at stopping opponents from inside or outside, and they're not a rebounding force on either end. Simply put, they're not wired to wipe out Killers. And the Bison's mistake-free style should keep this contest very interesting.

Worth a Long Look

No. 6 Baylor Bears (82.5) vs. No. 11 Nebraska Cornhuskers (9.6)
Upset chance: 22.4 percent

Good luck trying to figure out Baylor. Is it the team that started the season 12-1, with wins over Kentucky, Dayton and Colorado? Or the one that then dropped eight of its first 10 conference games? Or maybe the one that then reeled of 10 wins in 11 games before falling in the Big 12 championship game? If our model had an ID, it would turn in that badge and resign over having to explain that résumé. But it doesn't, and it will take a shot to weed through that statistical mess.

What it finds is a Baylor squad that, as its results suggest, is a team of extremes. With Rico Gathers, Cory Jefferson and Isaiah Austin, the Bears maul foes on the offensive glass (41.1 percent of misses, third in the country). Yet they give up way too many second shots at the other end (32.9 percent, 245th). They hardly ever force turnovers, but launch a heavy volume of 3-pointers, despite their size. They sport the nation's seventh-most-efficient offense, but just the No. 114 defense.

Through that haze, though, the model spots a solid team that is enhanced by the fact that it plays like a typically safe Giant. Baylor isn't impervious, but it's not ripe to be knocked off by just anyone, either. And Nebraska is far from a stalwart Killer. The Cornhuskers rank 318th in offensive rebound percentage (26.1) and don't use the arc to generate extra possessions, either, taking only an average number of 3-pointers.

They do force steals on 10.5 percent of opponent's possessions and take care of the ball well on offense. That, along with a strong defense that limits opponents to a 47.7 percent effective field goal rate, gives the Cornhuskers a fighting chance against Baylor. Make this an upset worth considering. But it's not nearly enticing enough to earn coveted "Best Bet" status.

Not Completely Crazy

No. 4 San Diego State Aztecs (79.4) vs. No. 13 New Mexico State Aggies (4.3)
Upset chance: 13.5 percent

Sometimes we say a team plays more like a Giant than a Killer, and in the case of the Aggies, we mean that literally: New Mexico State has the tallest frontcourt in the country -- 7-foot-5, 360-pound Sim Bhullar is hard to miss in the middle -- and uses it to dominate the offensive glass (37.9 percent offensive rebounding percentage, ranking 17th in the NCAA) and the paint (53.2 percent on 2-point shooting, ranking 20th). And the Aggies' guards, sometimes playing three at a time, do a good job of funneling opponents inside, where they're least likely to connect (allowing 42.9 percent on 2-pointers, ranking 11th).

It's all been quite effective for winning the WAC, where the next-best outfit was 4.2 points worse than the average NCAA team -- but it's not similar to successful Killers of the past. Making matters worse, New Mexico State is sloppier with the ball than other schoolyard bullies (turnovers on 18.8 percent of possessions, ranking 210th).

The Aztecs can't shoot (46.8 percent effective field goal percentage, ranking 283rd in the country) and play at the pace of a molasses drip, so you can see why they could have trouble catching up to an opponent who shoots a lot of 3-pointers or seizes a lot of turnovers. New Mexico State doesn't do either -- though San Diego State is weaker than you'd expect as a 4-seed, so our model doesn't quite see this as a lead-pipe cinch.

No. 3 Creighton Bluejays (69.2) vs. No. 14 Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8.3)
Upset chance: 10.9 percent

On Sunday, the Ragin' Cajuns edged the Georgia State Panthers 82-81 in a thrilling overtime game. You know what should have happened next? Louisiana-Lafayette ought to have enjoyed the cheers in New Orleans, cut down the net at the Sun Belt final, taken coach Bob Martin to get a tattoo -- and gone home with trophies. And Georgia State, which was six games better in the Sun Belt this season (17-1 vs. 11-7), and which sits a whopping 43 slots higher than Louisiana-Lafayette in our basic power rankings, should have represented the conference in the NCAA tournament.

Instead, the Sun Belt, like every conference other than the Ivy League, awards its auto-bid to its conference tournament champion. And since we may not have been clear enough about this in past years, let us state for the record: That's insane. Auto-bids should help ensure the best teams in the country are playing for the national championship, rather than dramatically weakening competition at the Big Dance.

In this case, Creighton nearly pulled off the incredible feat of leading the country in both 2-point and 3-point shooting this season (it finished third and first), and has the best offense since the dawn of advanced metrics (125.7 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for strength of opponents). But the Bluejays are exceptionally reliant on bombs (39.1 percent of points from behind the arc, ranking third in the nation), don't hit the offensive glass and emphasize defensive rebounding over trying to force turnovers.

Those traits happen to make them similar to fallen Giants of the past, to the point where our model estimates they should play 8.5 points worse in matchups against potential Killers. They're a fun, fine team, but they deserve to be tested. There's not much evidence, though, that Louisiana-Lafayette, the No. 115 team in the country, can mount a serious challenge.

No. 2 Wisconsin Badgers (73.7) vs. No. 15 American Eagles (5.2)
Upset chance: 10.7 percent

Normally, our model loves Wisconsin. But as we've explained time and again, this tournament is far from normal. These Badgers are the weakest of the No. 2 seeds, largely because they are particularly bad in the areas Bo Ryan tends to de-emphasize. Wisconsin is never a gambling team, preferring to contain opposing offenses. That means they eschew offensive rebounds in favor of transition defense and focus on cutting off penetration, rather than playing the passing lanes.

Still, last season the Badgers were at least average on the offensive boards and forced turnovers on 18 percent of opponents' possessions. This season, though, they rank 285th in offensive rebounding and generate turnovers just 15.6 percent of the time (322nd). In other words, they provide more opportunities for Giant Killers to match them shot for shot, a dangerous game this time of year. And that's a strong enough stylistic difference that the Badgers don't even rate as a "Bo Ryan Giant" this season. American, for a No. 15 seed, is decently positioned to take advantage. The Eagles are a horror show on offense, turning it over 22.8 percent of the time (342nd in the country) and grabbing offensive rebounds on just 27 percent of misses. Those stats totally offset an amazing 56.3 effective FG percentage (sixth in the country). But here's the case you can make for American.

First, as we mentioned, Wisconsin doesn't pressure the ball effectively. So perhaps the Eagles can keep their turnovers down. Then, the Eagles tend to shoot a large number of 3-pointers, and hit them at a 38.2 percent rate. If they hold onto the ball, in other words, they can go off from deep. They also play exceptionally deliberate basketball -- the 10th-slowest pace in the country, in fact -- meaning they will limit the number of chances Wisconsin has to separate itself. And the Eagles can guard the Badgers, thanks to the nation's No. 46 defense (an adjusted 97.3 points per 100 possessions), which happens to force turnovers 19.9 percent of the time.

It's somewhat refreshing, in the Tourney That Upsets Forgot, to find a 2-15 game that is so compelling. The odds, of course, are still strongly in Wisconsin's favor. But American has a chance, and as a 15-seed, that's all you can ask for.

Stay Away

No. 1 Arizona Wildcats (92.7) vs. No. 16 Weber State Wildcats (1.8)
Upset chance: 1.1 percent

Recall the schoolyard bullies -- mid-majors geared toward beating their conference foes, but not Giants. Now, meet Weber State, king of the preschool playground. The Wildcats won the stunningly weak Big Sky Conference by taking few chances. They had the fifth-worst steal percentage in Division I, grabbed an offensive rebound once every six days or so, but did own the defensive glass and take a lot of free throws. Only a high-frequency 3-point rate (30.1 percent of shots) works in their GK favor.

Not that it really matters. Arizona is one of the model's strongest Giants against any Killer, let alone one with a 1.8 rating. We could ramble on about any potential flaws in the Wildcats' profile, but we value your time too much for that. For Weber State to win this game, something seriously weird would have to happen.