Giant Killers: West upset picks

For each of the four regions, we'll break down the six games with Giant Killers implications. (Reminder: A Giant Killer is a team that beats an opponent seeded at least five spots higher; check out our full methodology for more details.)

We have also sorted the games into four categories: Best Bets, Worth a Long Look, Not Completely Crazy and Stay Away. It's important to remember that we're dealing with probabilities here. No upset is a given -- if it were, it wouldn't be an upset in the first place. And even a game with a 10 percent chance of going in favor of the underdog means that one out of every 10 times, the underdog should win.

Instead, we can give you the likelihood of an upset, based on rigorous statistical analysis that merges a team's base power rating with our GK "Secret Sauce" -- the statistical similarity between potential Giant Killers and historical Davids, as well as Giants and their predecessors who were slain. By coming up with a rating for every team, we are then able to compute an upset percentage for each matchup.

What you choose to do with that information is up to you, and should probably depend on how many points you receive for picking an upset in your pool. But keep checking back with us as we hit the Midwest and West today and the East and South on Tuesday, and look ahead to future rounds on Wednesday.

West Region

Here is our look at the West Region, leading off with an old GK favorite showing favorable odds in its matchup with a Pac-12 Giant.

BEST BET

No. 11 Belmont Bruins (Giant Killer rating: 45.8, on a scale of 0 to 100 percent estimated chance of beating a generic Giant) versus No. 6 Arizona Wildcats (Giant rating: 70.5)

Upset chance: 46.8 percent

It's no secret that statheads love the Bruins. We made them a Best Bet last season. And we've been writing about Kerron Johnson since he led the nation in steal percentage as a sophomore in 2010-11, when we told readers to bet the ranch on Belmont -- at least until the Bruins drew an extremely tough opponent.

Rick Byrd's crew has perfected a highly effective Giant-Killing formula: a team full of players who can steal the ball (thefts on 13.9 percent of opponent possessions, ranking seventh in the nation) gets the ball to Johnson, who penetrates, then dishes to any of three sharpshooters, including Ian Clark, who's shooting 46.3 percent from 3-point land. The result: Despite a lack of height, Belmont hits from everywhere, and its 56.8 effective field goal percentage ranks second in the country. Now, Arizona also shoots well at any range, and with four players at 6-foot-8 or taller (effective height: plus-4.0 inches, ranking 13th in the NCAA), they grab rebounds and clog opponents inside, too.

But the Wildcats have one weakness that should set off alarm bells for any Giant: They allow opponents to shoot 36 percent on 3-pointers, ranking 274th in the NCAA. That killed them in February losses to California, Colorado and USC, who shot a combined 21-for-40 (52.5 percent) from downtown against Arizona. (And when the Wildcats succeeded in shutting down UCLA on the perimeter in the Pac-12 tournament, they sent the Bruins to the foul line 21 times.) So the path toward an upset here is clear. Now it's time to see if Belmont's slingshots can finally take down a power-conference favorite.

WORTH A LONG LOOK

No. 13 La Salle Explorers (28.8) versus No. 4 Kansas State Wildcats (83.7)

Upset chance: 32.5 percent

"I consider myself a computer and stats guy," reader gmark128 writes, "but sometimes you just can't slave away to the point where you don't recognize common sense. K-State has no bad losses, and its computer rankings punish them for playing some sub-200 and -300 RPI teams. But it's not like they lost to those teams." OK, so we won't make fun of the Wildcats for playing Missouri-Kansas City or Lamar or (though we admit we're suppressing a chuckle here) Alabama-Huntsville. In fact, we will reiterate that our statistical model favors Giants who play in tough conferences but also face weaker nonconference opponents, probably because it preps them to swat away pesky Killers once they reach the NCAA tournament. Moreover, Kansas State's terrific offensive rebounding (on 38.5 percent of missed shots, ranking 14th in the NCAA, and due more to smart positioning than height) is key to keeping safe.

But there's just no evidence that the Wildcats are as strong as a typical No. 4 seed, whether or not they have coasted against their smallest-fry foes. Kansas State outscored opponents by 19 points per 100 possessions playing in the Big 12, which is very comparable to North Carolina, a No. 8 seed, outscoring opponents by 19.3 points per 100 possessions in the ACC. According to BPI, Ken Pomeroy and our spreadsheets, K-State is about the 30th-best team in the country.

La Salle is undersized but efficient on both ends of the floor, more so on offense than defense. The Explorers protect the ball, and allow opponents to shoot more than 50 percent from inside. They do a good job of generating turnovers through steals (11.9 percent of opponent possessions, ranking 37th), and have about a 1-in-3 chance of making enough long-range shots to topple the over-seeded favorite.

NOT COMPLETELY CRAZY

No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels (23.4) versus No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers (87)

Upset chance: 22.9 percent

Ah, the further vagaries of the NCAA tournament selection committee. Wisconsin has outscored opponents by 25.2 points per 100 possessions this season, playing in the toughest conference in the country, almost exactly the same margin posted by Michigan State (who, like Wisconsin, lost to Ohio State in the conference tournament), yet got seeded two slots lower. RPI, which foolishly ignores margin of victory, doesn't like the Badgers, but the truth is they're ruthlessly efficient on defense, allowing just 83.6 points per 100 possessions, the third-best mark in the nation. Their grinding, man-to-man D closes out long-distance shooters, allowing opponents to shoot only 29 percent on 3-pointers. (That's the opposite of a peanut allergy, in which a Giant is vulnerable to a factor that makes a Killer dangerous; we'll call this a flu shot, inoculating a Giant against a Killer hazard.) And the hidden truth is that Wisconsin's crocodile-in-winter pace masks its signature offensive talent: superior ball handling (turnovers on just 15.6 percent of opponent possessions, fifth in the NCAA), which amps its scoring to 108.8 points per 100 possessions (ranking 52nd).

But Ole Miss is considerably better than the average 12-seed, too. It likes to run (70.8 possessions per game, ranking 12th in the NCAA), set screens for Marshall Henderson and let him bomb away (he has 359 3-point attempts this season, almost 11 a game). In the SEC tournament, where Henderson was MVP, Ole Miss added rebounding to the mix, and outscored Florida 11-5 on second-chance points in a game it won by three. Ordinarily, all that's just the kind of evidence we would use to support the case for a Killer. Here's the thing, though: Henderson is shooting just 35.7 percent on 3-pointers, Ole Miss as a team hits only 33 percent of its bombs, and if any squad is poised to crush a rebellion on the perimeter, it's Wisconsin.

No. 14 Harvard Crimson (11.6) vs. No. 3 New Mexico Lobos (63.2)

Upset chance: 21.4 percent

We've made the case for New Mexico as a vulnerable Giant before. For one thing, the Lobos rely heavily on free throws (25.3 percent of points, sixth in the country), which is a red alert at this time of year. For another, though they just put away three straight dangerous opponents in the Mountain West tournament, the Lobos are subpar at defending 3-point shots and generating turnovers, which means they occasionally have trouble keeping up with opponents.

If any team is smart enough to stay on the outside, it's Harvard, and the Crimson have perimeter chops, dropping 40.8 percent from behind the arc (ranking eighth in the NCAA). Unfortunately for the Din & Tonic set, between Harvard's woes on the offensive boards (offensive rebounding percentage: 323rd in the NCAA) and New Mexico's strength on the defensive glass (defensive rebounding percentage: 40th), reading period could elapse before the Crimson get their hands on a missed shot. Fun fact: New Mexico's frontcourt is nearly a half a foot taller, on average, than Harvard's (effective height: plus-3.1 inches versus minus-2.7 inches).

STAY AWAY

No. 15 Iona Gaels (15.9) versus No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (89.2)

Upset chance: 10.1 percent

You saw Ohio State hold Wisconsin to 43 points on St. Patrick's Day; because of its thudding pace (248th in the NCAA), you might not realize it's a top-15 offense (114.7 points per 100 possessions) as well as a top-10 defense (86.5 points per 100 possessions). The Buckeyes don't turn the ball over, they don't rely too heavily on free throws and they've played tough Big 10 foes as well as Killer-like nonconference opponents -- all boosts to their Giant cred. Meanwhile, Iona can shoot: Sean Armand has hit a whopping 248 of 578 3-point attempts (42.9 percent) over the past three seasons. But they just don't force enough turnovers or generate enough defensive rebounds to disrupt a superior team.

No. 16 Southern Jaguars (2.5) versus No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (88.2)

Upset chance: 2.7 percent

Let the naysayers talk about how the Jaguars rank 319th in the NCAA in offensive rebounding, or 347th in strength of schedule. We've found a stat in which they're above average: Southern is the fourth-ranked team in the country, out of nine, with "Southern" in its name.