Giant Killers: Midwest upset picks

As we promised in the Giant Killers blog, on Monday we began detailed breakdowns of all the round of 64 games with GK implications.

Now that we all have brackets in hand, it's time for a detailed look at how our Giant Killers statistical model sees NCAA tournament matchups. We'll go region by region, and, as we did in 2011, we will sort potential upsets into four categories: Best Bets, Worth a Long Look, Not Completely Crazy and Stay Away. These names should be pretty self-explanatory -- Best Bets have a decent chance to win outright, and Stay Aways are likely to lose no matter what. But we can't tell you exactly how to fill out your brackets because that depends on how heavily your particular pool rewards upsets. The more points you score when underdogs win, the more you should be willing to pick high-risk teams.

In case you've forgotten, a Giant Killer is a team that beats an opponent seeded at least five spots better and doesn't come from a BCS conference. Other teams -- Gonzaga, Butler, BYU, Temple and Xavier -- are excluded because of their historical success. (Check out our methodology for a full explanation.) Our model generates statistical ratings that compare potential Giant Killers to past Davids as well as all Giants to the Goliaths who were slain. Those ratings enable us to predict the chances of an upset in each matchup.

We continue in the Midwest, the lightest region in terms of Giant Killers matchups. But there appears to be one juicy upset just waiting to happen.

Upset picks in the South | East | West | Midwest

MIDWEST REGION

BEST BET

No. 14 Belmont (40.6 Giant Killer score, on a 100-point scale) vs. No. 3 Georgetown (30.9 Vulnerability score, on a 100-point scale)
Upset chance: 29.6 percent

A year ago, Belmont's 3-point shooting and turnover-machine-of-a-defense earned it 30 wins and valentines from statheads, but the Bruins ran into the worst possible opponent at tournament time: beastly Wisconsin, which was simply too much to handle inside. Now, the Bruins are back, with just slight modifications, and once again they rate as the top Killer in the NCAA field. Their case is straightforward. They shoot 3s with deadly accuracy -- 38.1 percent as a team, and keep an eye on Drew Hanlen, who's at 48.1 percent -- while taking care of the ball (turnovers on just 17.6 percent of possessions). But they don't sacrifice inside presence: They're shooting 54.7 percent, seventh best in the country, on 2-pointers and collect offensive rebounds on 34.5 percent of misses (ranking 84th). If our model could hum, even it might not sound as efficient as Belmont's offense. Meanwhile, keyed by Kerron Johnson (who clearly is gunning for the All-GK Team) the Bruins nab steals on 10.6 percent of opponent possessions and force turnovers on 20.9 percent. Both numbers are down from last year but still good enough to keep Belmont's defense among the top quarter of all teams.

And in Georgetown, Belmont has drawn a mighty interesting opponent. The Hoyas limit opponents to just 26.6 percent shooting on 3-point attempts, the lowest rate in the country. Irresistible force, meet immovable object! Georgetown is also tough inside and uses its size to block 13.5 percent of opponent shots (ranking 25th). But although the Hoyas don't make a mess of turnovers the way they did last year, they rank just 133rd in the country in protecting the ball, which is the single most important skill Giants need to avoid early upsets. The Hoyas are also very vulnerable to steals (10.5 percent of possessions, ranking 256th) -- Belmont's signature defensive threat. And their offense, although significantly better than their deadening pace makes it seem, is not built for comebacks. It's built on passing inside, with only middle-of-the-pack 3-point shooting -- not good news against the kind of runs Belmont can put together.

Look, Georgetown is a fine team. The Hoyas also are overappreciated because they beat expectations. And they're overseeded (BPI: 18). Belmont isn't just a good team. The Bruins are underappreciated because they come from a mid-major conference and because they went out in one round last year despite geeks such as us talking them up. And they're underseeded (BPI: 35). But, most important, the Bruins play precisely the kind of hoops that characterizes the best Giant Killers. Call it smart-risk/high-reward. And watch it close the talent gap between a 3 and a 14.

WORTH A LONG LOOK

No. 13 Ohio (16.7) vs. No. 4 Michigan (44.9)
Upset chance: 22.4 percent

If our model were violent, it would throw darts at Michigan. The Wolverines sport some serious flaws for a Giant, starting with their overreliance on 3-point shooting (36.5 percent of their points) at the expense of attacking inside the arc (just 47.1 percent). But the problems don't stop there. Michigan is lousy on the offensive glass (28.3 percent, 279th in the country) and only average at forcing turnovers (20.2 percent of possessions). Although the Wolverines do an excellent job of protecting the ball on offense, their entire defense is questionable, particularly the 35 percent 3-point shooting they allow.

And Ohio is a Killer armed with four huge weapons. Just as we saw against Georgetown two years ago, the Bobcats are serious ball hawks. They rank second in the NCAA in forcing turnovers (26.7 percent of possessions), led by 5-foot-11 guard D.J. Cooper and his 4.4 steal percentage. They also launch a ton of 3s, which speaks to the high-risk/high-reward style favored by Killers, and go after misses on the offensive glass, grabbing 35.2 percent of available rebounds. Finally, they guard the arc exceptionally well, holding foes to 30.3 percent shooting, which accounts for just 25.7 percent of their scoring. That could be the biggest difference of all against trey-heavy Michigan, although, with an effective field goal percentage of just 49 percent, the Bobcats are going to have to find a way to score more efficiently.

STAY AWAY

No. 15 Detroit (3.2) vs. No. 2 Kansas (23.5)
Upset chance: 7.2 percent

At first glance, Detroit looks like an intriguing potential Killer. The Titans have a highly touted point guard in Ray McCallum, balanced scoring, and legit size with 6-10 bigs Eli Holman and LaMarcus Lowe. But although the Titans hit the offensive glass hard, force turnovers and block a ton of shots, their horrid 3-point shooting (29.5 percent) and overall lackluster defense (50.9 effective field goal percentage) knock them back.

As with Michigan State in the West, we'll have to wait until the next round to get a true feel for Kansas' vulnerability -- and that's only if Saint Mary's advances. The Jayhawks are fairly safe, but the percentage of points they give up from 2-point range is somewhat troubling, as is their merely average ability to force and avoid turnovers. But that shouldn't matter much in the first round, when the Jayhawks (wait for it…) show no Mercy.

No. 16 Lamar (18.6) or Vermont (less than 2) vs. No. 1 North Carolina (3.7)
Upset chance: 6.0 percent chance for Lamar; less than 2 percent for Vermont

The Cardinals are a study in the different factors that go into making a team efficient. They shoot quite horribly (just 45.6 percent on 2-point attempts, 33.2 percent on 3s), but because they protect the ball (turnovers on 17.6 percent, ranking 33rd in the NCAA) and hit the offensive glass (ORs on 37.3 percent of missed shots, ranking 23rd), they actually score 106.2 points per 100 possessions, 84th most in the nation. Meanwhile, although Lamar is guard-heavy and undersized, it forces enough steals and blocks against opponents trying to penetrate that its interior defense is superior, too (opponents are shooting 45.2 percent on 2-point attempts, ranking 72nd). Our model also appreciates Lamar's nonconference strength of schedule -- playing Kentucky and Ohio State in the regular season is the kind of experience that has served Davids well in the past. It probably won't matter in 2012, but this is how you start building a Giant Killer.

In contrast, the Catamounts' statistical fundamentals aren't enough to overcome the weakness of their conference. Vermont plays visibly high-effort defense -- the Stony Brook Seawolves looked like zombies against UVM for about an hour and a half Saturday morning -- but the Catamounts don't shoot particularly well or generate many turnovers. And the America East, home to Binghamton, Maryland-Baltimore County and Hartford, really did have a terrible year.

Meanwhile, the Tar Heels are a model of Giant invulnerability: They rank among the top 10 teams in the NCAA in protecting the ball and offensive rebounding, giving them the 13th-highest offensive efficiency in the country (116.4 points per 100 possessions). They limit opponents' shooting from inside and out, and, as the nation's tallest team, they block a boatload of shots, giving them the 12th-highest defensive efficiency, too (88.6 points allowed per 100 possessions). They're the safest Giant in the field.