Giant Killers: West upset picks

Upset picks in the South | East | West | Midwest

As we promised in the Giant Killers blog, on Monday we begin detailed breakdowns of all the first-round games with GK implications.

Now that we all have brackets in hand, it's time for a detailed look at how our Giant Killers statistical model sees NCAA tournament matchups. We'll go region by region, and, as we did in 2011, we will sort potential upsets into four categories: Best Bets, Worth a Long Look, Not Completely Crazy and Stay Away. These names should be pretty self-explanatory -- Best Bets have a decent chance to win outright and Stay Aways are likely to lose no matter what. But we can't tell you exactly how to fill out your brackets, because that depends on how heavily your particular pool rewards upsets. The more points you score when underdogs win, the more you should be willing to pick high-risk teams.

In case you've forgotten, a Giant Killer is a team that beats an opponent seeded at least five spots better and doesn't come from a BCS conference. Other teams -- Gonzaga, Butler, BYU, Temple and Xavier -- are excluded because of their historical success. (Check out our methodology for a full explanation.) Our model generates statistical ratings that compare potential Giant Killers to past Davids as well as all Giants to the Goliaths who were slain. Those ratings enable us to predict the chances of an upset in each matchup.

We now move on to the West, where we find our best bet for an early upset.

MIDWEST REGION

BEST BET

No. 12 Long Beach State (31.6 Giant Killer score, on a 100-point scale) vs. No. 5 New Mexico (56.9 vulnerability score)
Upset chance: 41 percent

The top upset on our board isn't as obvious as you'd think. The Lobos have been a hot pick according to tempo-free stats all season; they're actually underseeded if you go by kenpom.com's rankings. But their few weaknesses happen to be exactly the types that get a Giant sent home early. On offense, they don't score enough from 2-point range, and on D, they allow a ton of 3-point attempts. Although they've held shooters to 30.9 percent from downtown, it's the attempts that are alarming, since a GK can get hot in a one-game setting.

And Long Beach State can take advantage. The 49ers don't stand out in any single area, but they're above average in almost every GK aspect. They're good offensive rebounders, rank in the top 100 in both offensive and defensive turnover percentage (resulting in a healthy possession advantage) and shoot it well from 3-point range (35.8 percent). They probably don't let it fly often enough, although top dog Casper Ware showed what can happen when they actually focus on the 3-ball, going 8-of-16 from beyond the arc en route to 33 points in the Big West title game. Plus, Long Beach State is battle-tested, which proves to be statistically significant. The 49ers played the country's third-toughest nonconference schedule, with wins at Pittsburgh and over Xavier on a neutral court, and tight losses at Kansas, UNC, Creighton, San Diego State and Louisville. Will they have enough for that final push to get past New Mexico? There's a strong chance that'll be the case.

WORTH A LONG LOOK

No. 13 Davidson (30.8) vs. No. 4 Louisville (39.9)
Upset chance: 29.1 percent

We will stipulate that Louisville looked pretty terrific in the Big East tournament, while in the Southland Final, Davidson struggled to put away a team (Western Carolina) that's about 200 spots lower in the national rankings than the Cardinals' opponents. Spotting Giant Killers, however, isn't (just) about measuring overall quality. BPI says there's a fairly enormous gap of 6.8 net points per game between the Cardinals and the Wildcats, vs. just 2.4 points between Georgetown and Belmont. But what we're really looking for is a team's capacity to be great or terrible on any given night. And Davidson shares a number of attributes with past Killers who have piled up highly efficient offenses: they shoot well, they're very careful with the ball and they seize offensive rebounds, all of which yield 110.5 points per 100 possessions, 37th most in the country. They gain points in our model for scheduling Kansas, Duke, Wichita State and Vanderbilt, too.

Meanwhile, we've said it before: Louisville has one of the great Rick Pitino defenses, but they're vulnerable to steals and they throw the ball away so often (21.5 percent of possessions, ranking 249th in the country) that they can't be classified as a safe Giant. Further, the Cardinals are one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the nation (31.1 percent, ranking 294th). They're just middling from inside, too -- it's only the Cardinals' offensive rebounding that makes their offense above-average -- and Davidson happens to be exceptional on the defensive glass (allowing opponents ORs on just 26.7 percent of misses, ranking 19th in the country). An upset isn't exactly likely here, but the numbers say Louisville can get behind (as happened last year against Morehead State) and have a tough time playing from behind, and that Davidson can keep scoring. If all that happens, their Bell curves could overlap!

NOT COMPLETELY CRAZY

No. 14 BYU (N/A) or No. 14 Iona (19.8) vs. No. 3 Marquette (31.9)
Upset chance: 12.7 percent

First things first -- we moved BYU into the Giant category a couple of years ago because of its consistent appearances in the tourney and Top 25 polls. So even though the Cougars are a 14-seed this year, if they get past Iona, it won't count as a GK game. Sorry.

Meanwhile, we lobbied hard for Iona to make the tourney, and clearly that swung the committee's decision. There's a lot to like about the Gaels. Scott Machado is third in the country in assist rate (and leads the country in overall assists), Lamont "Momo" Jones started every game and was second in scoring for an Arizona team that reached the Elite Eight last year and Mike Glover averages 18.5 ppg and 9.0 rpg. Yikes. But we're tempo-free dorks, and we like Iona's turnover percentages (17.2 on offense, 22.3 on defense) just as much. The Gaels also hit 39.3 percent of their 3s (16th in the country), but should shoot more from deep -- they only account for 27.9 percent of their offense. And we're troubled by Iona's rebounding and overall defensive deficiencies.

But the Gaels could still take out Marquette if they get past BYU. In fact, we were teetering right between "Worth a long look" and "Not completely crazy" territory with this game. As impressive as Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom, are, the Golden Eagles have one glaring weakness: a horrific defensive rebounding rate (opponents grab offensive boards 36.4 percent of the time). They're also a low-volume, low-accuracy 3-pont shooting team and rely heavily on free throws (they account for 22.7 percent of Marquette's points, always a major red flag for a Giant). But Marquette's turnover percentages, like Iona's, are outstanding, and the Golden Eagles offset some of their defensive rebounding issues by grabbing offensive boards 34.6 percent of the time. Is this a safe pick? No. But if you're in a pool that rewards upsets, and Iona gets by BYU, it's worth considering.

11 Colorado State (less than 2) vs. No. 6 Murray State (46.9)
Upset chance: 10.0 percent

Murray State was perfectly cast as a Killer in 2010, when the Racers upset Vanderbilt and came within an inch of knocking off Butler: forcing turnovers, stroking 3s and grabbing second chances, they did everything within their underdog power to maximize both the quantity and value of their possessions. All those skills are still there, but now that Murray State is a Giant our model notices issues it could have in warding off Killers. The Racers have a tough time protecting the ball in transition (turnovers on 21.1 percent of possessions, ranking 226th in the NCAA). As good as they are from behind the arc, they have also come to rely on free throws for scoring (23.6 percent of points, ranking 31st). And yes, they won 30 games, but they got to 30 by not only drawing the likes of Tennessee Martin and SIU-Edwardsville as OVC opponents, but by scheduling teams such as Harris-Stowe State and Alaska-Anchorage early in the season. Harris-Stowe State?

Odds are, though, that Murray State will be able to keep on Racing through the second round, because Colorado State, an even smaller team than undersized Murray State, doesn't stop opponents inside or outside. When you allow an effective field goal percentage of 50.5 percent, as the Rams do (ranking 237th in the country), it's going to be hard to compete against good teams whatever your other stats. (Indeed, it's hard to look at Colorado State and not imagine that other mid-major teams wouldn't have served the tournament better in this slot. Drexel and Marshall, for example, both have better BPI. RPI strikes again!) Having said all that, Colorado State is legit from downtown (40.5 percent on 3s, seventh-best in the NCAA). So the Rams have an outside shot if they have an outside shot -- if Murray State loosens up on the perimeter (highly unlikely) or gets sloppy and gives the ball away (quite possible).

STAY AWAY

No. 15 Norfolk State (less than 2) vs. No. 2 Missouri (37.1)
Upset chance: 3.7 percent

Missouri's a better offense than a team, and a better team than a Giant. With an effective field-goal shooting percentage of 57.8 percent (second highest in the NCAA) and turnovers on just 15.5 percent of possessions (third lowest), the Tigers score 125.5 points per 100 possessions, the most in the country. But they don't play the kind of shutdown defense that makes Giants safe, allowing opponents to shoot 47.6 percent inside and a horrible 36.2 percent from downtown (ranking 263rd). Sadly, the Spartans are ill-equipped to take advantage, as they shoot just 31.4 percent from outside (rankings 282nd) and turn the ball over on 21.5 percent of possessions (ranking 246th). An opponent who could score in bunches could throw a real scare into Mizzou and make for a fun game. Maybe next round.

No. 16 LIU (less than 2) vs. No. 1 Michigan State (28.6)
Upset chance: Less than 2 percent

Despite the rave reviews of Brooklyn GK correspondent Lee Berman throughout the season, you can join us in a rendition of "Bye Bye Blackbird." LIU doesn't really do anything from a statistical perspective reminiscent of a traditional Giant Killer. Then again, there's a reason the Blackbirds are a 16-seed.

The funny thing, though, is against the right seed, Michigan State, like Missouri, might have been vulnerable. The Spartans are just average at taking care of the ball and forcing turnovers and their 2-point defense is surprisingly problematic. But we'll deal with that more in the blog tomorrow when we look ahead to potential round of 32 matchups.

Upset picks in the South | East | West | Midwest