Giant Killers: South upset picks

It's bad enough that VCU is a 12-seed, while, say, Colorado is an 11. You've read our analysis of the Rams here and here and here and here. If our model were the marrying kind, it would buy Shaka Smart an engagement ring. His squad doesn't shoot as well as last year's Final Four team, but the Rams generate turnovers relentlessly, protect the ball and defend the perimeter.

Unfortunately for VCU, the Shockers are also miscast: Wichita State is one of the 10 best teams in the country (BPI: No. 9), masquerading as a 5-seed. The Shockers can work the ball inside, usually to 7-foot, 256-pound center Garrett Stutz; as a team, they're shooting 53.5 percent on 2-point attempts, 14th best in the nation. The four guards they usually start alongside Stutz can bomb away from outside -- Joe Ragland has hit 50 percent of his 3-point attempts, and ranks third in the country with a 67.9 percent effective field goal percentage. The Shockers turn the ball over on just 18 percent of possessions. They hit the glass. And they're nearly as efficient on defense (giving up 90.4 points per 100 opponent possessions, ranking 18th) as offense (116.8 points per 100 possessions, ranking 10th). They've lost one game, by one point, in the past six weeks.

Our model accounts for conference strength, so Wichita State takes a hit in our ratings compared to teams out of the Big Ten or Big 12. Even so, it's nowhere near the vulnerability score of other mid-major teams playing the role of Giants, such as New Mexico (56.9) or Murray State (46.9). That's because the Shockers' fundamental stats are so strong. They are, in fact, one of the few teams that could make a complete mess of this tournament's chalk; Ken Pomeroy has them rated as the second-likeliest team to win the South.

VCU is adaptable and, uh, smart. But Gregg Marshall can play some chess, too -- watch Wichita State, and you'll see it shift defensive strategies. By numbers and personnel, this should be one of the most interesting matchups in the entire tournament. Thanks for making it happen on the opening Thursday, NCAA!

WORTH A LONG LOOK

No. 14 South Dakota State (9.7) vs. No. 3 Baylor (48.3)
Upset chance: 19 percent

Much as with Vanderbilt and Harvard, if you pick this game, you'll be doing so largely based on Baylor's vulnerability. Which is a fine tactic against a team that hardly ever makes sense to anyone.

Giant Killers thrive, as we've mentioned time and again, by creating extra possessions and maximizing the ones they have, and the Bears help with that cause. Baylor turns it over way too often (20.6 percent of possessions), does a lousy job on the defensive glass despite its size and athleticism (opponents grab offensive rebounds 32.8 percent of the time, leaving the Bears just 208th in the country) and allows too many 3-pointers (28.8 percent of opponents' scoring, 120th in the nation). Baylor offsets some of those weaknesses by dominating the offensive glass and forcing turnovers, but its inefficiency inside the arc is a problem, too.

Is South Dakota State the team to expose these flaws? Not in an ideal world, but the Jackrabbits at least have some GK qualities in their favor. Their biggest edge? They protect the ball as if it were a state secret (15.7 turnover percentage; fourth in the country). And they generate 32 percent of their points from 3-point range, the kind of high-risk shooting we like to see. If point guard Nate Wolters can find big man Jordan Dykstra for a couple of early bombs (he hits 48.6 percent of his treys), Baylor's bigs will have to come out and guard, which should create openings for Wolters to score inside the lane. And if that happens, look out.

NOT COMPLETELY CRAZY

No. 13 New Mexico State (12.7) vs. No 4 Indiana (39.0)
Upset chance: 17.2 percent

The Hoosiers, who score a whopping 120.2 points per 100 possessions (fourth highest in the country) are a fun team to watch. They've got an immense frontcourt, including 6-11 freshman Cody Zeller, who is shooting 62.6 percent, and half a dozen guys who bomb away with precision -- as a team, they're shooting 43.3 percent on 3s, second highest in the NCAA. But our model notices several similarities between Indiana and past Giants who have fallen early. The Hoosiers are heavily reliant on foul shooting (free throws account for 24.5 percent of their points, ranking 12th). They are vulnerable to the 3-point shot, allowing opponents to shoot 34.9 percent from downtown (ranking 194th). And they surrender a lot of steals (10.1 percent of possessions, ranking 218th). In the Big Ten semifinals, Indiana outshot Wisconsin and got to the line more often, but gave up more steals and more blocks, let the Badgers hit a tournament-record-tying 13 3-pointers and lost 78-71. So you can see where a Killer with a swarming, thieving defense and outside shooters could cause the Hoosiers real trouble, especially now that they're missing Verdell Jones III.

Sadly, New Mexico State isn't that type of team. (Too bad VCU wasn't seeded one slot lower.) The Aggies put a lot of points on the board, but that's partly because they play at a rapid pace (70.9 possessions per game, 19th fastest in the country). They work the ball inside, where they're legitimately outstanding on the offensive boards (offensive rebounds on 40.8 percent of missed shots, fourth in the NCAA), and they specialize in getting to the free throw line -- if you sneeze near Hamidu Rahman, somebody will call a foul. But Killers have better odds of slaying Giants when they can score in bunches, and New Mexico State is shooting just 32.8 percent (239th in the NCAA) on 3s. This is a matchup between two very physical teams -- and one is from the Big Ten, while the other is from the WAC.

STAY AWAY

No. 16 Mississippi Valley State (14.3) or Western Kentucky (less than 2) vs. No. 1 Kentucky (4.6)
Upset chance: 5.1 percent vs. MVSU; Less than 2 percent vs. WKU

Mississippi Valley State has a surprisingly high GK rating for a team in this position, and it's based almost entirely on forcing a ton of turnovers (23.3 percent of possessions) and nailing 3-pointers (32.7 percent of the team's points). But a 16-seed has never defeated a 1-seed, and Kentucky is Kentucky -- extremely safe and outstanding in virtually every key area except forcing turnovers and 3-point defense. So just keep walking past this one, especially if the Wildcats draw Western Kentucky, which has exactly nothing going for it as a Giant Killer. If only Orlando Mendez-Valdez still had eligibility. Sigh.

No. 15 Lehigh (less than 2) vs. No. 2 Duke (11.8)
Upset chance: 2.9 percent

We were all set to write about how Duke was more vulnerable than we've seen in ages (its rating is usually close to zero). Then the Blue Devils drew Lehigh. And while we love C.J. McCollum and his knack for both scoring and swiping the ball, Lehigh just doesn't fit the GK profile. The Mountain Hawks don't do anything particularly well to produce extra possessions, with the exception of a solid 11.3 steal percentage on defense. Most concerning is that they score only 27.4 percent of their points from deep against a team that prioritizes defending the 3-ball and grab offensive rebounds only 31.2 percent of the time -- a weak spot other teams could exploit against Duke.

Meanwhile, the Blue Devils struggle with both 2-point offense and defense and generate too much of their offense (23.1 percent) from the free throw line. But they protect the ball on offense, are an above-average offensive rebounding team and absolutely lock down the arc on D (just 19.5 percent of opponents' points). A ridiculously powerful strength of schedule adds to their résumé. Oh, then there's this little fact: In Coach K's tenure at Duke, the team has lost just one game to a Giant Killer (VCU in a 6-11 game in 2007). That's it. In fact, the Blue Devils have lost only one other time to a double-digit seed, but that was a power-conference team (Boston College) all the way back in 1985. Considering the likes of Georgetown, Kansas and Vandy have lost to GKs in back-to-back seasons, that's all the more remarkable. And it doesn't bode well for Lehigh.