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ESPN Senior Writer- Peter Keating is a senior writer at ESPN The Magazine, where he covers investigative and statistical subjects. His column, The Numbers, appears in every issue.
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ESPN The Magazine contributing writer- Brenner writes for ESPN The Magazine and ESPN Insider. He covers the NBA and college basketball.
In our Giant Killers tour of the NCAA tournament regions -- which previously included the East and West regions -- we finally hit a bracket bubbling with upset potential. If the Goliaths fall right, we could even see a 12-seed and 13-seed square off against each other here in the second round. Now, that would short-circuit our spreadsheets.
SOUTHEAST REGION
Best Bets
No. 12 Utah State (28.1 Giant Killer score, on a 100-point scale) vs. No. 5 Kansas State (42.6 Vulnerability score)
UPSET CHANCE: 40.2 percent
Utah State's case to be a Killer is pretty straightforward: By limiting its own turnovers (TOs on just 18.3 percent of possessions) and strangling opponents on the defensive boards (allowing opponents offensive rebounds on just 25 percent of misses, No. 2 in the country), Utah State minimizes the number of possessions opponents get. And by stopping shots inside and out (allowing an effective field goal percentage of just 43.3 percent, sixth-lowest in the NCAA), the Aggies minimize the value of opponent possessions, too. As a bonus, they hit 3s, shooting 35.8 percent from downtown. Meanwhile, Kansas State has two, uh, Giant problems: the Wildcats don't shoot well from inside (46.5 percent on 2-point attempts, 227th in the NCAA) and they throw the ball away (turnovers on 21.8 percent of possessions, ranking 265th). Switching to a smaller lineup and spread-out system in the second half of the season has seemed to help the Wildcats -- the triangle offense emphasizes the talents of G Jacob Pullen -- but then again, Kansas State went back to bad habits and lost to Colorado in the Big 12 quarterfinals. K-State is actually much better at the kind of play that characterizes Killers: The Wildcats are outstanding offensive rebounders and 3-point shooters. But those ingredients won't help them much at cooking up the kind of efficient, low-risk play that Giants need to stay safe early in the tournament.
If anything, our model underrates the chances of the absurdly-low-seeded Aggies, who are getting just 1 or 2 points in Vegas and who actually rank higher than Kansas State in the best advanced-metric systems. We're checking to see if our spreadsheets were intimidated by Frank Martin. In the meantime, watch this dog hunt.
No. 13 Belmont (57.8) vs. No. 4 Wisconsin (.174)
UPSET CHANCE: 30.4 percent
Five days ago, we told you to bet the ranch on Belmont if the Bruins got any kind of favorable first-round matchup. Well, they didn't: Wisconsin is one of the 10 safest Giants. Protecting the ball from unnecessary giveaways is the single most important thing a high seed can do to avoid being upset in the early rounds, and the Badgers happen to be No. 1 in the country at avoiding turnovers (TOs on a minuscule 13.1 percent of possessions). Along with good shooting percentages from inside and out, that leads to an extraordinarily efficient offense (123.6 points per 100 possessions, second in the NCAA behind only Ohio State), though Wisconsin's production is often well-hidden by its glacial pace of play (just 57.6 possessions per game, slowest in the entire country).
But the path to an upset here is clear nevertheless, and it lies around the perimeter. You know how Duke gets criticized for taking too many 3s? Wisconsin is even more reliant on long-range shooting, outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.79 points per 100 possessions on 3-pointers, the most of any Giant, but just 0.58 points per 100 possessions on 2-pointers. Safe Giants typically show the opposite pattern, relying on the steadiness of an inside presence. Which means Wisconsin can get into trouble when its bombs don't fall, especially because its slow tempo and inability to generate turnovers (just 16.9 percent of opponent possessions) limit its ability to come back. In the Big Ten semifinals, the Badgers shot a hideous 2-for-21 from behind the arc and lost to Penn State 36-33 in a slow-motion, 44-possession game. Further, Wisconsin allows opponents to shoot a scorching 37.5 percent from downtown (315th in the country), so the Badgers also have problems when the other team's bombs fall. Five days before the Penn State debacle, the Badgers let Ohio State hit 14 3-pointers in a row and got crushed 93-65, their worst loss of the season.
Belmont has everything our model looks for in a Killer, including talents that are often mutually exclusive. Keyed by sophomore G Kerron Johnson, who steals the ball more often per possession than any player in the country, the Bruins generate boatloads of turnovers (27.6 percent of opponent possessions, No. 2 in the country, behind only Duquesne). They grab bunches of offensive rebounds (37.9 percent of misses, 14th in the NCAA). And they defend well inside (allowing opponents to shoot 44.1 percent on 2-pointers, 35th in the NCAA). But this contest will hinge on whether the Bruins, who shoot a hefty 38.1 percent on 3s while allowing opponents to shoot just 32.8 percent, can maintain their prowess from behind the arc. Seeing Belmont as strong in the few places where Wisconsin is weak, our model likes the Bruins' chances.
Not Completely Crazy
No. 14 Wofford (17.4) vs. No. 3 BYU (34.1)
UPSET CHANCE: 13.3 percent
Between a 34.1 percent Vulnerability score and the absence of big man Brandon Davies, BYU is no sure thing in the first round. But is Wofford the right team to exploit the Cougars' weaknesses? It's unlikely, but not impossible. The good news for the Terriers is that they make 40.7 percent of their 3-pointers, which is fifth-best in the country and just the kind of accuracy a Killer needs. Problem is, they don't shoot the long ball nearly enough, launching only 26.4 percent of their shots from 3-point land, which is waaaaay below average (313th in the NCAA). We've harped on it over the past few years, but for those who still haven't got the message, here it is again: The teams most likely to slay Giants play high-risk/high-reward strategies.
The other place Wofford could capitalize, though, is on maximizing the number of its possessions. The Terriers grab their own misses on an impressive 35.1 percent of possessions, and without Davies, BYU's impressive defensive rebounding stats might be a bit of a mirage. And the Cougars don't provide a ton of pressure on D, forcing just 20.4 turnovers per 100 possessions (155th in the nation). One more note: The Fighting Jimmers rely much more on 3s, where they outscore opponents by more than 10 points per 100 possessions, than 2-pointers, which isn't typical for safe Giants. So if you really want to go out on a limb, this game could offer some value, especially in pools with upset bonus points. But it will take a major shift in Wofford's offensive strategy for the underdogs to come through.
Stay Away
No. 15 UC-Santa Barbara (less than 2.0) vs. No. 2 Florida (49.0)
UPSET CHANCE: 6.8 percent
We noted Florida's flaws in naming it one of our 10 most vulnerable Giants: The Gators don't generate turnovers (19.3 of opponent possessions, ranking 221st) and for all their rebounding prowess and height, they give up a lot of points in the paint (55.45 points per 100 possessions on 2-point FGs, third-most among Giants). But those are mere blemishes compared with the scars on the Gauchos' stat line: UC-Santa Barbara coughs up the ball on 21.7 percent of possessions (ranking 258th) and nabs just 29 percent of possible offensive rebounds (281st). The Gators are very fortunate to be a 2-seed. But they rank 16th in the country with 115.5 points per 100 possessions -- and with the kind of help the Gauchos provide, Florida might get close to 100 possessions in this game.
No. 16 UNC-Asheville (11.9) or Arkansas-Little Rock (less than 2.0) vs. No. 1 Pittsburgh (5.7)
UPSET CHANCE: 4.6 percent
Whoever survives its opening-round game here will run square into an anti-Killer wall known as Pittsburgh. The Panthers just don't share traits with big-time teams that get knocked out by GKs, other than a defense that doesn't force many turnovers. In particular, Pitt's outstanding rebounding at both ends of the floor (No. 2 in the nation in offensive rebounding, 50th in defensive) helps ensure that they'll get extra shots at the rim, which should snuff out a favorite weapon of many upset-minded teams.
UA-LR, a horrifically inefficient squad at both ends, hardly has a prayer against Pittsburgh. At least UNC-Asheville would bring something to the table: a defense that forces turnovers on a whopping 24.5 percent of possessions, 10th in the nation. But Brad Wanamaker, Ashton Gibbs and Co. aren't likely to throw the rock away like a Big South squad, which means you should feel quite comfortable believing this won't be the first-ever victory by a 16 seed.