And, breathe. Despite seeing few upsets or down-to-the-wire wins, it was quite the first weekend of men's NCAA tournament games.
For the first time in three years, we don't have a Cinderella team dancing into the Sweet 16. We also won't have back-to-back national champion UConn.
Instead, we have seven teams from the SEC (half of the conference's tourney-record 14 bids), four from the Big Ten, four from the Big 12 and a single program from the ACC. All four 1-seeds remain in the chase for the title too.
We've analyzed how they each booked a spot in the regional semifinals. We ranked all 16 teams. Now, it's time to look at the actual matchups.
ESPN's Jeff Borzello, Myron Medcalf and Joe Lunardi (mostly) agree on who will win each Sweet 16 game. But why? And who will be key in each? Let's find out.
(2) Michigan State Spartans vs. (6) Ole Miss Rebels
Friday, 7:09 p.m. ET, CBS, Atlanta
Borzello's prediction: Michigan State 72-69
Medcalf's prediction: Michigan State 75-70
Lunardi's prediction: Michigan State 70-65
Why Michigan State will win: Over its first two NCAA tournament games, Ole Miss made nearly half of its 3-point attempts. Michigan State, the top 3-point defensive team in America, will try to prevent Ole Miss from continuing that form. Besides that, Tom Izzo's squad dominates on the offensive glass, and Spartans guard Jase Richardson will be the best player on the court. It all adds up to a Michigan State win. -- Myron Medcalf
Player to watch: Tre Holloman. He will overperform for the Spartans in this one. Holloman has gotten into a rhythm late in the season, recording double figures in four of Michigan State's past five games. The Spartans went 4-1 in that stretch. -- Medcalf
(1) Florida Gators vs. (4) Maryland Terrapins
Thursday, 7:39 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV, San Francisco
Borzello's prediction: Florida 80-75
Medcalf's prediction: Florida 84-77
Lunardi's prediction: Florida 85-75
Why Florida will win: Florida is a tough matchup. It's difficult to corral Walter Clayton Jr. and the Gators' other playmakers. Opponents get caught in switches off screens, because they have to do that to defend a team ranked second in adjusted offensive efficiency, where Florida shines. The Gators can score in bunches. But they also have the size -- four players in the rotation are 6-foot-9 or taller -- to handle Maryland's big men -- Derik Queen and Julian Reese -- around the rim. -- Medcalf
Player to watch: Alijah Martin. Todd Golden recruited Martin, one of the heroes of Florida Atlantic's 2023 Final Four run, for his talent and experience. And Martin has delivered for the Gators, averaging 15.6 point per game since the start of the SEC tournament. Look for another major effort from Martin in a Florida win. -- Medcalf
(1) Auburn Tigers vs. (5) Michigan Wolverines
Friday, 9:39 p.m. ET, CBS, Atlanta
Borzello's prediction: Auburn 82-77
Medcalf's prediction: Auburn 76-72
Lunardi's prediction: Auburn 80-70
Why Auburn will win: Michigan has won with a pair of 7-footers in Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin captaining Dusty May's offense. But Auburn, which boasts a top-75 defense, has four players -- including National Player of the Year contender Johni Broome -- with the length to pressure the opposing team's most important players. Broome will lean into his versatility as an excellent passer and playmaker to put pressure on Michigan's big bodies. And while the Wolverines' recent foes have done the same, giving Michigan's guards more openings on the perimeter, the Tigers' Tahaad Pettiford and his fellow guards won't let that happen. -- Medcalf
Player to watch: Chad Baker-Mazara. With Baker-Mazara, you never know what will happen. He can be the most carefree player on the court or a headache who draws technical fouls that hurt his Auburn team. What we do know: Michigan will struggle to defend him, which could be the difference. -- Medcalf
(3) Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. (10) Arkansas Razorbacks
Thursday, 10:09 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV, San Francisco
Borzello's prediction: Texas Tech 76-70
Medcalf's prediction: Texas Tech 79-72
Lunardi's prediction: Texas Tech 75-65
Why Texas Tech will win: This is a strong defensive group -- ranked in the top 40 in adjusted defensive efficiency -- that also boasts the kind of offensive firepower that Arkansas' last opponent, St. John's, lacked. Texas Tech forward JT Toppin is averaging 22.6 PPG over the past 13 games; he has registered 30 or more points in three games during that stretch. The Red Raiders also have made 37% of their 3-point attempts in that period. John Calipari's Arkansas squad has hit its stride late, leading to an improbably Sweet 16 run in his first season with the program. But Texas Tech won't allow the Razorbacks to dominate around the rim the way Kansas and St. John's did. -- Medcalf
Player to watch: Boogie Fland. Nearly two months after he reportedly suffered a season-ending hand injury, the Arkansas standout returned to action in the NCAA tournament. However, while he logged 20-plus minutes in both first-weekend games, he was just 4-for-15 from the field and didn't look like the five-star recruit and NBA prospect he was touted as before his injury. Don't expect a major impact from him in the Sweet 16, either. -- Medcalf
(2) Alabama Crimson Tide vs. (6) BYU Cougars
Thursday, 7:09 p.m. ET, CBS, Newark
Borzello's prediction: BYU 94-92
Medcalf's prediction: BYU 96-93
Lunardi's prediction: Alabama 85-80
Why BYU will win: It's all about momentum. The Cougars have been one of the four best teams in college basketball over the past five weeks, ranking fourth nationally in adjusted efficiency margin and second in offense. They've lost just once in 12 games -- on a neutral court against Houston. Kevin Young has this team playing at an incredibly high level, and forward Richie Saunders has developed into a bona fide go-to guy, averaging 19.3 points and shooting 43.5% from 3 in his previous 11 games. Saunders put up 25 points against Wisconsin, which had no answer for him. Alabama is a different test, one with much more length and athleticism, but the Crimson Tide also can be vulnerable defensively. BYU just might be able to outscore the Tide if their 3s aren't falling. -- Jeff Borzello
Why Alabama will win: It's not like Alabama staggered to the finish line of the regular season. The Crimson Tide have lost three times in the past five weeks, but two of those defeats were to Florida, and the other came by a bucket at Tennessee. Along the way, they won at Auburn and put up the highest point total that Saint Mary's has allowed in more than three years. This Alabama team is loaded on the perimeter and especially around the rim, and it is guided by fifth-year guard Mark Sears, who gets himself and his bigs to the basket seemingly at will. Alabama has more weapons and deep, recent tournament experience that is hard to match. I like the Tide in the Sweet 16's best matchup, which also will be no low-scoring affair. -- Joe Lunardi
Player to watch: Egor Demin. The best NBA prospect on the floor on Thursday, Demin needs to play like it for BYU to upset Alabama. His size and vision enable him to pick apart defenses, especially if opponents give him time and space to operate in ball screens. His eight assists and one turnover against Wisconsin are Exhibit A. But Demin can struggle when pressured, like he did against Houston and Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament. It will be interesting to see whom Nate Oats picks to guard him. -- Borzello
(2) Tennessee Volunteers vs. (3) Kentucky Wildcats
Friday, 7:39 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV, Indianapolis
Borzello's prediction: Tennessee 73-69
Medcalf's prediction: Tennessee 79-77
Lunardi's prediction: Tennessee 72-71
Why Tennessee will win: Kentucky already has beaten Tennessee twice this season. But the Volunteers saw fantastic performances from their guards in the first weekend of the NCAA tournament, with Chaz Lanier totaling 49 points in two games while shooting 10-for-18 from 3-point range and Zakai Zeigler averaging 13.5 points and 9.0 assists. Tennessee also had its best defensive performance in weeks against UCLA, limiting the Bruins to 58 points and 0.93 points per possession. Kentucky looked great in its pair of tourney wins, especially with Lamont Butler healthy. But Kentucky also went 12-for-24 from 3 in each previous meeting with the Vols; that lofty shooting efficiency could be hard to replicate a third time. -- Borzello
Player to watch: Chaz Lanier. He wasn't at his best in either prior game against Kentucky. Lanier was 3-for-10 from 3 in the first meeting and 0-for-7 in the second, averaging 12.5 points. In Tennessee's wins this season, Lanier is averaging 19.4 points and shooting 43.8% from 3; in losses, he is at 12.6 points and 27.5% from 3. -- Borzello
(1) Duke Blue Devils vs. (4) Arizona Wildcats
Thursday, 9:39 p.m. ET, CBS, Newark
Borzello's prediction: Duke 84-76
Medcalf's prediction: Duke 78-71
Lunardi's prediction: Duke 90-75
Why Duke will win: In terms of personnel, this should be one of the better battles of the round of 16. Both teams have three versatile, physical guards on the perimeter who can make shots and defend. Both squads have an interior anchor who can block shots and rebound. Both have a freshman matchup problem up front. The problem for Arizona, however, is that Duke's matchup problem is Cooper Flagg, the best player in college basketball. Arizona can sometimes have lapses defensively or be loose with the ball, like we saw late against Oregon. Unlike the Ducks, Duke will punish those mistakes. And if Blue Devils guard Tyrese Proctor continues to shoot the way he has over the past three games, Duke's No. 1 offense goes up another level. Arizona will have to play its best game and limit mistakes -- and it still might not be enough. -- Borzello
Player to watch: Caleb Love. It has to be Love, right? The North Carolina transfer has a long history against Duke, highlighted by his game-winning shot during the 2022 Final Four in the last game of Mike Krzyzewski's career. Arizona needs Love to be great. He was terrific against Oregon on Sunday with 29 points, but he has to avoid a repeat of the Sweet 16 loss to Clemson from last year, when he shot 0-for-9 from 3. -- Borzello
(1) Houston Cougars vs. (4) Purdue Boilermakers
Friday, 10:09 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV, Indianapolis
Borzello's prediction: Houston 69-62
Medcalf's prediction: Houston 78-71
Lunardi's prediction: Houston 71-69
Why Houston will win: Although Houston's offense is better than in previous years under Kelvin Sampson, the Cougars' success still lies in defense. Theirs is the best in the country, according to most metrics. The Cougars' ability to pressure the ball and take a team out of what it wants to do offensively is second to none. That could be a concern for Boilermakers guard Braden Smith, who is a first-team All-American yet coughs up the ball too much at times, as evidenced by his eight turnovers against McNeese. Moreover, Houston ranks in the top five nationally in 2-point defense and block percentage, which could pose problems for Trey Kaufman-Renn. If Smith and Kaufman-Renn are not at their best, it's hard to see Purdue beating Houston. -- Borzello
Player to watch: J'Wan Roberts. With Cougars forward Roberts looking fully healthy following an ankle injury in the Big 12 tournament -- his 18 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists against Gonzaga seem to confirm this -- he should be able to produce against Purdue. The Boilermakers have one of the worst paint defenses in the country and rank last in the Big Ten in 2-point defense and block percentage, which should allow Roberts to operate effectively. -- Borzello