This men's NCAA tournament preview represents the roots of Bracketology, when a handful of hoopheads spent "Selection Weekend" together cranking out the 80-page "Blue Ribbon" postseason edition after spending months considering what the bracket might look like. We have the internet now, though, and hope this snappy online version, 30 years hence, helps you enjoy the Madness just a little bit more.
Joey Brackets and his team spent hours in the wake of this year's bracket release once again poring over résumés of all 68 teams to identify strengths, weaknesses and that one thing that might allow them to survive and advance -- or see their road to Glendale, Arizona, for the 2024 Final Four come to an abrupt end.
Where every team's journey will end, along with "eye test" ranks and the predictable and unpredictable elements each might face, is included.
Teams are organized by region, in seeding order. Select wisely, using all the information presented herein. Happy hoops!
Follow these links for a printable 2024 men's NCAA tournament bracket or to fill out a men's bracket in the ESPN Tournament Challenge. Find more information on the field of 68 in Jay Bilas' More-Than-5-Minute Bracket.
EAST
No. 1 UConn Huskies
Why they will advance
Dan Hurley's offense is potent and capable of a scoring spurt at any moment. Connecticut uses motion on the offensive end to get the ball into the right player's hands in the right spot. That can mean big man Donovan Clingan with post position, one of many shooters spotting up or Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer driving downhill into the paint.
Why they won't advance
It's no surprise that in UConn's losses, its opponents got hot from deep. The connective tissue between those games was perimeter playmaking off the dribble. By forcing UConn's guards, especially Spencer, to defend in space, a team willing and able to repeatedly attack gaps off the dribble can create open looks. If they make them, the Huskies can be taken down.
Did you know?
Heavy is the head that wears the crown. The Huskies enter the NCAA tournament with a target on their backs as the reigning champions. Four reigning champs have entered the Big Dance as a 1-seed or 2-seed in the past decade -- none advanced to the tournament's second weekend.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 2
Résumé rating: 3
NCAA seed list: 1
Joey Brackets says ...
Hurley has a balanced, talented team, perhaps even better than last year's champions. The Huskies are also mentally unrivaled and perfectly in tune with their chip-on-the-shoulder coach. Bottom line: I can't come up with a single good reason to bet against the Huskies. So I won't, and the college game sees its first repeat champion since 2007.
Final field rank: 1
No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones
Why they will advance
The Cyclones play tough defense, second in points allowed in the Big 12 only to Houston, the nation's best defensive team. They do so by holding their opposition to just over 40% from the field and forced the most turnovers in the conference. They also have a balanced offense, with four players in double figures and six with at least 8.0 PPG.
Why they won't advance
Iowa State does not rebound very well, ranking near the bottom of the Big 12 in multiple rebounding categories. The Cyclones allowed the most opponents' offensive rebounds in the conference during the regular season. They're also sub-70% from the free throw line, which could cost them in the NCAA tournament where fouls are called more frequently than in the Big 12.
Did you know?
After reaching the Final Four in 1944, the Cyclones did not appear in the NCAA tournament until Johnny Orr took them six times in his 14 seasons at the helm (1981-1994). Every coach since Orr, except for Greg McDermott, has taken the Cyclones to the NCAA tournament. T.J. Otzelberger is just the second coach since Tim Floyd (1995-1997) to reach the tourney in his first three seasons.
--David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 6
Résumé rating: 5
NCAA seed list: 8
Joey Brackets says ...
Defense travels in the NCAA tournament, so the Cyclones should advance to the second weekend, at least. The conference schedule has prepared them for the grind. Do the Cyclones have Final Four potential? Absolutely, but I'm predicting that they'll fall just short, losing in the Elite Eight to UConn (in Boston).
Final field rank: 5
No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini
Why they will advance
Illinois features one of the most prolific offenses in the field of 68. Brad Underwood's squad averages 83.9 PPG and features a likely future pro in senior Terrence Shannon Jr., one of the nation's best open-floor players. Shannon averages 21.6 PPG and is one of four double-figure scorers for Illinois -- along with Marcus Domask (16 PPG), Coleman Hawkins (12.9 PPG) and Quincy Guerrier (10.4 PPG).
Why they won't advance
Illinois' two Achilles' heels are defense and depth. This squad doesn't double the post, so a dynamic pivot can do some damage. The Illini's D against high-ball screens, a staple in today's college game, has been spotty as Big Ten foes were adept at isolating their weakest defenders. Big man Dain Dainja has provided quality off-the-pine minutes, but the primary perimeter subs have struggled lately.
Did you know?
Lefty scoring ace Shannon averages 21.6 PPG, the sixth highest single-season scoring average in Illinois hoops history.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 11
Résumé rating: 8
NCAA seed list: 12
Joey Brackets says ...
Illinois hasn't reached the second weekend in 19 years but has the ingredients for a Sweet 16 run: an NBA talent on the roster in Shannon, an experienced starting five, a high-octane offense and an accomplished X's and O's coach in Underwood. But BYU will have other ideas in what figures to be a compelling second-round matchup.
Final field rank: 18
No. 4 Auburn Tigers
Why they will advance
With a top-15 offense and defense according to KenPom's adjusted efficiency metrics, Auburn has a Final Four profile. It leads the nation in effective field goal percentage defense (44%) and ranks second in 2-point defense (43.1%) and fourth in block rate (15.6%). Johni Broome (16.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG) and Jaylin Williams (12.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG) can match any frontcourt tandem.
Why they won't advance
Strong guard play is essential in March, and the Tigers' backcourt can be wild and inconsistent. Opponents can shoot them right out of a game. Auburn also wasn't the same away from home, going 0-5 against KenPom Top 50 teams away from the Plains. The Tigers benefited from the SEC's softest conference schedule, and their ability to execute in the half court is a glaring question mark.
Did you know?
Auburn held all but five opponents to less than 50% 2-point shooting and allowed 10 or more 3-pointers in only three games. The Tigers' defense, ranked sixth in adjusted efficiency, is the program's best in coach Bruce Pearl's 10th season at the helm. Auburn ranks ninth in bench minutes and using a 10-man rotation allows Pearl to keep the pressure cooking.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 4
Résumé rating: 10
NCAA seed list: 15
Joey Brackets says ...
Auburn's rim protection and pressure should enable it to advance to the second weekend for the second time under Pearl, but shaky guard play will be its undoing. Leading a team through the bracket will be a difficult task for freshman point guard Aden Holloway, and backcourt mate Denver Jones is making his March Madness debut. Oh, and beating UConn in a near-road game seems unlikely.
Final field rank: 12
No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs
Why they will advance
The script hasn't changed much for coach Brian Dutcher and last year's NCAA runner-up. It goes something like this: play for a Mountain West tournament championship, defend like your hair is on fire, force turnovers with a token full-court press, rinse and repeat. The Aztecs also get to the foul line at a top-70 clip, led by their 6-foot-9 240-pound All-American Jaedon LeDee.
Why they won't advance
SDSU's offensive efficiency runs high when it consistently draws contact and gets to the foul line to mask below average field goal shooting. When it doesn't, the results for Dutcher's club have been up and down, including an end to the regular season that saw it drop three of its final five games.
Did you know?
Dutcher was former Aztecs coach Steve Fisher's top assistant at Michigan during the Fab Five era then followed him to SDSU. The quintet of Jalen Rose, Chris Webber, Juwan Howard, Ray Jackson and Jimmy King popularized baggy shorts and black socks but never won a national championship, falling in back-to-back title games to Duke and UNC.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 55
Résumé rating: 53
NCAA seed list: 30
Joey Brackets says ...
It's not rocket science that teams with the most experience in the field of 68 usually fare well. The Aztecs returned four of their top six scorers from last year and added enough players in the portal to produce a similar tournament run. But it's not to be in 2024 as SDSU loses its first-round alphabet game to UAB.
Final field rank: 30
No. 6 BYU Cougars
Why they will advance
BYU relies on its high-scoring offense. The Cougars led the Big 12 in points per game in the regular season at 82.2. They're also really good at crashing the boards, leading the conference in rebounding at 39.9 per game, and they're in the top 3 in both offensive and defensive rebounds. They also were the only team to defeat Kansas at home, so they're not easily intimidated.
Why they won't advance
The Cougars live and die by the 3-point shot. They're in the mid-100s in percentage made, but they put up so many that they're never out of the game. Some of their more surprising losses came when those shots didn't fall. Rarely does one stat make so much difference, but 3-point field goal percentage is that stat for BYU.
Did you know?
The Cougars reached the NCAA tournament for the 30th time in school history. Their 29 previous trips are the most among teams that have never reached the Final Four. They're also 17th all-time in total wins, the highest-ranking program among teams without a Final Four appearance.
--David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 17
Résumé rating: 24
NCAA seed list: 17
Joey Brackets says ...
The Cougars surprised everyone in the Big 12 regular season (they were picked 13th out of 14 in the preseason poll), so they're used to naysayers doubting them. I see them continuing to surprise into the second weekend, knocking off Duquesne and Illinois before bowing out to Iowa State.
Final field rank: 14
No. 7 Washington State Cougars
Why they will advance
The Cougars can shut you down. They finished the regular season ranked second in the Pac-12 in scoring defense and second in blocks. They crash the boards, finishing third in the conference with 37.7 rebounds per game. On the offensive end, they have four players averaging between 10.1 and 15.4 points per game.
Why they won't advance
The Cougars could struggle if they fall behind. They finished eighth in the Pac-12 in 3-point shooting during the regular season, and their 70.2% free throw shooting -- ninth in the conference -- could bite them in a close game.
Did you know?
Washington State has one of the worst résumés among power conference schools in terms of NCAA tournament experience. Its appearance in this year's tournament is just its fourth in the past 41 years and its first since then-coach Tony Bennett led it to the Sweet 16 in 2008.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 36
Résumé rating: 31
NCAA seed list: 26
Joey Brackets says ...
Washington State had a chance to share the regular-season title but let that slip through its hands. It now has a chance to taste success in the NCAA tournament but will fall short of that goal as well. Drake in Omaha is the end of Wazzu's road.
Final field rank: 41
No. 8 Florida Atlantic Owls
Why they will advance
The Owls know what it takes to advance, having gone all the way to the program's first Final Four last season. Their two leading scorers from last year, Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin, were among the returnees to Dusty May's squad. Michael Forrest, the program's all-time leading scorer, is the only key player who did not return.
Why they won't advance
Florida Atlantic doesn't shoot free throws particularly well. It connects on just 71.8%, the 185th best mark in Division I. If the Owls are in a tight game down the stretch, that could hurt them.
Did you know?
Last year, Florida Atlantic joined San Diego State and Miami as first-time participants in the Final Four. The last time three teams made their Final Four debut in the same season was in 1970, when Jacksonville, New Mexico State and St. Bonaventure appeared for the first time. None of those three schools has appeared there again.
--David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 35
Résumé rating: 34
NCAA seed list: 31
Joey Brackets says ...
I was saying earlier in the year that if you're looking for this year's Florida Atlantic -- a team that came out of nowhere to have great success -- you don't need to look past, well, Florida Atlantic. Then came a lousy league finish. The Owls have all the ingredients to make another run, but I think the magic wears off after beating Northwestern.
Final field rank: 26
No. 9 Northwestern Wildcats
Why they will advance
Fueled by first-team All-Big Ten guard Boo Buie and third-team All-Big Ten forward Brooks Barnhizer, the Wildcats are back in the Big Dance for a second straight year. Buie ranked fourth in both scoring (18.9 PPG) and assists (5.2 APG) this season while the underrated Barnhizer (14.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG) registered eight double-doubles and was a Big Ten All-Defensive Team selection.
Why they won't advance
Northwestern shoots a remarkable 39.6% as a team from 3-point range -- led by the vastly improved Buie (43.1%) and fellow guard Ryan Langborg (41.7%). However, the team's other deadeye perimeter shooter, senior Ty Berry (11.6 PPG, 43.3 3P%), suffered a season-ending knee injury last month. One wonders if Berry's absence will keep the Wildcats from making a tournament run.
Did you know?
In layup lines, the Wildcats don't look athletic enough to keep up with Big Ten teams. But assistant Chris Lowery, the former Southern Illinois head coach, has been a game-changer. He installed an aggressive defensive scheme that attacks ball screens and sends an extra defender to constantly trap post-ups. The result? Northwestern forces more turnovers (12.4 per game) than a busy Chicago bakery.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 33
Résumé rating: 33
NCAA seed list: 36
Joey Brackets says ...
Buie is the only power conference player averaging over 18 points and five assists per game. He fearlessly leads a Northwestern team that outperforms expectations -- winning a first-round tourney game last year and then tying for third in the Big Ten this season. Can Northwestern make the program's first-ever Sweet 16 appearance in 2024? Not without Berry. I see a close loss to Florida Atlantic.
Final field rank: 43
No. 10 Drake Bulldogs
Why they will advance
If the Bulldogs can shoot from 3-point range like they did in winning their second straight Missouri Valley Conference championship, they have a chance. They connected on their first seven 3-pointers to build a big lead and finished 11-of-18 (61.1%). They also showed great resilience after Indiana State used a 24-5 run to turn an 18-point deficit into a 1-point lead.
Why they won't advance
You don't give up an 18-point lead midway through the second half of your conference championship and head into the NCAA tournament with a lot of confidence. Drake will also be facing much tougher foes. The Bulldogs didn't face a power conference opponent all season and their strength of schedule was in the low 100s.
Did you know?
When leading scorer Tucker DeVries was a freshman in high school, his father, Darian DeVries, who is now his head coach but then was an assistant at Creighton, was hopeful Tucker would have a chance to walk on at a Division I program. He's now the two-time MVC player of the year after averaging 21.8 points and 6.8 rebounds per game.
--David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 40
Résumé rating: 27
NCAA seed list: 40
Joey Brackets says ...
The Bulldogs stole a bid when they knocked off top-seeded Indiana State in the MVC tournament final. They led 67-49 with just over 10 minutes left but then saw that lead disappear. Instead of caving, the Bulldogs responded and claimed their second straight conference tournament title. They'll keep it going in Omaha, with a win over Washington State and a near-miss against Iowa State.
Final field rank: 28
No. 11 Duquesne Dukes
Why they will advance
The Dukes return to the NCAA field for the first time in 47 years, beating the odds after starting Atlantic 10 play 0-5. They have two bona fide scorers in their backcourt in Dae Dae Grant and Jimmy Clark III. No one expected them to be here, and the chip on their shoulder combined with the nation's 34th most efficient defense are Cinderella hallmarks.
Why they won't advance
Duquesne's offense leaves a lot to be desired compared to its swarming D. The Dukes rank 156th in offensive efficiency, 189th in effective field goal percentage and 178th in 3-point percentage. Keith Dambrot's guys also turn the ball over in the bottom 160 of Division I teams. A good defensive team will exploit those numbers and send the A-10 tournament champs packing.
Did you know?
Keith Dambrot's father, Sidney, played for the Dukes from 1952 to 1954 and was coached by the legendary Donald W. "Dudey" Moore. The elder Dambrot played in an NIT Final Four and an NCAA Elite Eight. The younger Dambrot, once Lebron James' high school coach, took the Duquesne job in 2017 and ended the Dukes' tourney drought in his eighth season on the bluff.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 51
Résumé rating: 48
NCAA seed list: 46
Joey Brackets says ...
The fact that we're breaking down a Duquesne team that hasn't been to the tournament since Norm Nixon makes this a win in itself. Grant and Clark III are as fun a duo the school has had in a long time, and their ability to play with a proverbial chip on their shoulder should fuel them to a near-upset of BYU in the first round.
Final field rank: 52
No. 12 UAB Blazers
Why they will advance
The Blazers rely on a variety of scorers. They're fourth in the AAC in scoring despite not having a single player averaging 14 points per game. Junior forward Yaxel Lendeborg leads the way with 13.8 PPG. They have four different four-game winning streaks, so they can get hot. In clutch time, their 74.7 free throw percentage will help.
Why they won't advance
UAB has trouble stopping the opposition. The Blazers are near the bottom of the AAC in scoring defense and field goal percentage defense. They also don't shoot the 3 very well, ranking in the upper 200s in Division I. And while balance is a plus, who is their go-to player? It's hard to imagine them going far without someone they can count on at crunch time.
Did you know?
UAB went to the NCAA tournament in just its third year of existence (1981). This is the Blazers' 17th trip to the Big Dance representing their fourth different conference in their first year in the American. Andy Kennedy is in his fourth year at UAB, and his 17th overall. He's had a winning record every year but one.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 55
Résumé rating: 53
NCAA seed list: 50
Joey Brackets says ...
The Blazers had a good run to win the AAC tournament, knocking off the top-seeded South Florida in the semifinal before destroying Temple in the title game. Getting out of the first weekend of this tournament may be a challenge, but pulling the requisite 5-12 upset over San Diego State seems like a good bet.
Final field rank: 30
No. 13 Yale Bulldogs
Why they will advance
It's not often we see a mid-major as a double-digit seed with a 7-foot center who can step out to hit 3s. Sophomore Danny Wolf is just that for the Bulldogs, surrounded by a core group of veterans. Yale is up for the pressure of the tournament, having played at Gonzaga and Kansas this year, building double-digit first half leads against both.
Why they won't advance
The formula for a Cinderella usually includes taking a ton of 3s and getting hot at the right time. Yale shot the deep ball at the lowest rate in the Ivy League this season and did most of its damage inside the arc, a much tougher task against tourney competition.
Did you know?
The Ivy League champ has become a feared foe for top seeds in the NCAA tournament. Of the past 11 Ivy League representatives, five advanced past the first round and two reached the Sweet Sixteen. Even those who have bowed out early haven't done so easily, with four of the six first-round losers keeping the game within single digits.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 49
Résumé rating: 54
NCAA seed list: 52
Joey Brackets says ...
Thanks to Yale's buzzer-beating win in the Ivy Madness final, the conference's chances to disrupt tournament play has a real chance to continue. Yale has been a strong team all year, bringing back almost all its production from last season. After watching rival Princeton advance to last year's Sweet 16, these Bulldogs have been eager for their shot, where a game effort against Auburn falls short.
Final field rank: 49
No. 14 Morehead State Eagles
Why they will advance
Morehead State ranks 10th in the country in points allowed per game at 63.0. The combination of the Eagles' ability to get stops and the star power of Riley Minix, who averages 20.8 PPG and 9.8 RPG, means they are not to be taken lightly in March.
Why they won't advance
Morehead State has not been tested. The Eagles play in one of the worst conferences in the country; the OVC does not have a team in the NET top 100. It's hard to ace the test without any practice.
Did you know?
Morehead State is heading to the tournament for the ninth time in school history but has only advanced to the round of 32 once. In 2011, the 13th-seeded Eagles, led by Kenneth Faried, upset 4th-seeded Louisville to advance.
-- Brendan Farrell
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 54
Résumé rating: 57
NCAA seed list: 57
Joey Brackets says ...
The Eagles have not shown they are poised to take down any Goliaths as they are 0-4 against power conference opponents. Expect them to make a quick exit against Illinois.
Final field rank: 54
No. 15 South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Why they will advance
The Jackrabbits are hot. A loss at Kansas City in mid-February brought their record to 14-12. But they have now rattled off eight straight wins, including three straight in the Summit League tournament. They have a balanced scoring attack with four players in double figures, led by Summit League Player of the Year Zeke Mayo at 18.8 PPG.
Why they won't advance
There's a reason we celebrate the rare occasions when a mid-teens seed knocks off one of the regional favorites. South Dakota State doesn't have the horses to compete with the big boys of college basketball. Mayo could be playing in a power conference, but he wouldn't be the star and might not even be a starter.
Did you know?
South Dakota State will be playing in its seventh NCAA tournament and has yet to taste victory. The Summit League is 12-38 all-time in the Dance, with its last victory coming in 2021 when Oral Roberts advanced to the Sweet 16 before falling to Arkansas. No Summit League team has ever reached the Elite 8.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 59
Résumé rating: 62
NCAA seed list: 61
Joey Brackets says ...
The Summit League living up to its name is a rare occurrence. Even if Mayo goes wild, I don't see South Dakota State pulling off the upset of Iowa State.
Final field rank: 58
No. 16 Stetson Hatters
Why they will advance
Stephan Swenson and Jalen Blackmon form an electric backcourt. Swenson hit the winner in the Atlantic Sun semifinal and Blackmon scored 43 points in the final. Belgian big man Aubin Gateretse hit 74% of his 2-pointers this season. Together, they drive an efficient offense that's 56th in effective field goal percentage, 44th in 3-point shooting and produced 88 points per game in the ASUN tournament.
Why they won't advance
The defense is porous, ranking 339th in adjusted efficiency, and rebounding is also an issue. Opponents recovered 31.5% of their missed shots (299th) and splashed nearly eight 3-pointers per game. The Hatters miss Josh Smith, who suffered a season-ending knee injury Feb. 17, and lack depth -- only 23 D-I teams asked their starters to play more minutes.
Did you know?
Stetson is making its first tournament appearance since it joined Division I in 1971-72. When coach Donnie Jones took over in 2019-20, the Hatters hadn't enjoyed a winning season in 17 years, but he guided them to 39 victories over the past two years, matching a program record set in the mid-1980s.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 64
Résumé rating: 61
NCAA seed list: 64
Joey Brackets says ...
Stetson's ability to get red-hot beyond the arc makes it a dangerous opponent. The Hatters swished at least 10 3-pointers in 15 games and March is made for veteran guards like Swenson and Blackmon, who combined for 35 PPG. But the defensive deficiencies are real and the bench is short -- not a great combination against UConn.
Final field rank: 61
SOUTH
No. 1 Houston Cougars
Why they will advance
Houston really makes life difficult for opposing offenses. The Cougars are one of the best defensive teams in the country -- if not the best. They allow the fewest points in Division I and are near the top in field goal percentage defense. Their ferocious D also forces a lot of turnovers.
Why they won't advance
The Cougars are just an average offensive team. They ranked in the lower half of the Big 12 in points per game. They're in the middle of the conference in field goal percentage. In the NCAA tournament, where games can come down to crunch time, the Cougars' struggles from the free throw line could prove costly.
Did you know?
The Cougars' six Final Four appearances are the most among teams that have yet to win a national title. They lost to UCLA and Lew Alcindor in 1967 and 1968. They reached three straight Final Fours in the "Phi Slama Jama" days of 1982-84 and the last time was in 2021 under current coach Kelvin Sampson.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 1
Résumé rating: 1
NCAA seed list: 2
Joey Brackets says ...
The Cougars have a legitimate chance to make their second Final Four in four years. Defense travels and the Cougars' is among the best in the nation. They are also somehow underrated offensively and a real threat to cut down the nets in Glendale. Only UConn stands in their way in what would be a titanic title game.
Final field rank: 2
No. 2 Marquette Golden Eagles
Why they will advance
Past tournaments tell us guards win in March. Marquette hopes that holds true because there may not be a better lead guard in the country than Tyler Kolek. He orchestrates everything the Golden Eagles look to do offensively, running the show like a collegiate Steve Nash.
Why they won't advance
When Kolek recently missed three games due to an injury, the Marquette offense lost its luster, leading to two critical losses. Even if he is healthy, the downfall may come on the glass. The Golden Eagles are bad on the boards, ranking outside the top 250 nationally on both ends of the floor, which leads to too many extra possessions for their opponent.
Did you know?
The Golden Eagles' tempo is tough to define. Offensively, Kolek pushes the pace, with Marquette averaging the 7th shortest time of possession in the nation. On the other end, opponents are forced into the second longest possessions on average, topped only by Virginia's stingy defense.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 12
Résumé rating: 11
NCAA seed list: 7
Joey Brackets says ...
If Marquette were to lose early, this would mark 10 tournaments since the Golden Eagles last saw the second weekend. With this roster and Shaka Smart at the helm, that streak looks ready to end. The Golden Eagles have the answers on both ends of the floor to make it to the Sweet 16, but no further.
Final field rank: 10
No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats
Why they will advance
The Wildcats are as talented as any team in the bracket and coach John Calipari unlocked the offense over the last month. Kentucky scored at least 85 points in its last five regular-season games and enters the tournament as the nation's top 3-point shooting team (41.1%), fueling an offense that's the sixth most efficient and top-15 in adjusted tempo.
Why they won't advance
The defense has been less reliable (96th in adjusted efficiency) and, per usual, the Wildcats are relying on freshmen to share the heavy lifting. While it helps to have future NBA lottery picks like Rob Dillingham (15 PPG) and Reed Sheppard (12.7 PPG), Kentucky's youngsters have blinked under the bright lights of March in recent tournaments.
Did you know?
Early in Calipari's tenure, the Wildcats were a reliable option to win at least two games in the NCAA tournament and a perennial threat to reach the Final Four. That hasn't been the case of late. Kentucky hasn't advanced to the Sweet 16 since a regional final appearance in 2019 and the rabid fans in the Bluegrass State are thirsty for success in March.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 21
Résumé rating: 18
NCAA seed list: 11
Joey Brackets says ...
This is Calipari's most complete team in the last five years. Antonio Reeves (126.3 offensive rating, 44.3 3P%) is a seasoned late-game shot-maker, Sheppard may be the nation's best freshman and Dillingham is the latest in a long line of elite UK point guards. Anything short of the Elite Eight would be a disappointment. In other words, Big Blue Nation should prepare to be disappointed...again.
Final field rank: 20
No. 4 Duke Blue Devils
Why they will advance
Duke owns one of the nation's most efficient offenses. Per KenPom, the Blue Devils scored 116.1 points per 100 possessions in ACC regular-season play, making them the league's most efficient offense since... 2015 national champion Duke. Star big Kyle Filipowski is comfy on the perimeter, so Duke can space teams out and then beat them with a combo platter of 3-balls and off-the-bounce buckets.
Why they won't advance
Sometimes "D" isn't part of Duke's collective alphabet, even with two pit-bull-type perimeter defenders in Tyrese Proctor and Jeremy Roach. The roster lacks a big-time rim protector so the high-octane Blue Devils can be ousted in a scorefest. In fact, life begins at 80 for Duke foes as the Blue Devils are 0-5 this season when allowing that number of points or more.
Did you know?
There are 24 former Blue Devils on current NBA rosters, and Jon Scheyer's second Duke squad seems poised to add to that eye-popping total as underclassmen Filipowski, Proctor and Jared McCain are probable 2024 first round picks -- if they elect to leave Durham at season's end.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 21
Résumé rating: 17
NCAA seed list: 13
Joey Brackets says ...
Office pool players know better than to choose all No. 1 seeds, so Duke figures to be a trendy Final Four pick. The Blue Devils can score with the best of them. But at some point, either Filipowski will get in foul trouble or defensive lapses will cost Duke against another elite program. I see the end of the road coming for Duke against Houston in the Sweet 16.
Final field rank: 13
No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers
Why they will advance
Despite leaking oil down the stretch (3-8 in the final 11 regular-season games), Greg Gard's team won't be easy to evict from Bracketville because they are a gritty, grind-it-out team with three double-figure scorers (AJ Storr, Tyler Wahl and Steve Crowl) and a fourth guy within a whisker of doing so (Max Klesmit).
Why they won't advance
Gard must devise a way to put the "D" back in Badgers. Wisconsin's adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for opponent) is at 100.4 points, UW's worst mark since KenPom began tracking that data 21 years ago. The Big Ten meat grinder schedule appeared to tire the Badgers late in the season, and they struggled to control dribble penetration.
Did you know?
Gard owns a .635 winning percentage in Madison and has led the Badgers to Big Ten regular-season crowns in 2020 and 2022. However, the Badgers haven't made it out of the NCAA tournament's first weekend since 2017.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 18
Résumé rating: 16
NCAA seed list: 19
Joey Brackets says ...
March Madness is a guard-centric tournament and the Badgers have a quartet of quality ones in Storr, Klesmit, Chucky Hepburn and John Blackwell. But to cure the Badgers' seven-year itch without a Sweet 16 trip, they must play much stickier defense -- especially the aforementioned guards. I see Madison's maddening March trend continuing with an early defeat against the other (James) Madison.
Final field rank: 35
No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders
Why they will advance
"Middle of the road" isn't always a compliment, but the middle of the best conference in college basketball is pretty good. The Red Raiders are in the middle third of almost every team statistic in the Big 12. They can shoot 3-pointers and when the game is on the line their Big 12-best free throw shooting (77.8%) is an asset.
Why they won't advance
The Red Raiders aren't exactly hot. After starting the season 16-3, Tech went 6-6 in the final 12 games of the regular season. Are they the team that looked so good early in the season or the team that limped down the stretch? Rebounding will be key, as Tech was near the bottom of the conference in rebounding and rebounding margin.
Did you know?
The Red Raiders have appeared in 19 NCAA tournaments, including their 1996 appearance that was later vacated. They've also appeared in the NIT four times and the NAIA (small college) tournament twice.
--David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 24
Résumé rating: 21
NCAA seed list: 23
Joey Brackets says ...
The gauntlet that was the Big 12 season will have the Red Raiders ready for the NCAA tournament. They trounced Kansas, but shortly thereafter suffered back-to-back double-digit losses. That type of inconsistency could bite them, but it also suggests a high ceiling. Every year a middle-of-the-pack power conference team makes a really deep run. I think Texas Tech is the one, running all the way to the Elite Eight.
Final field rank: 6
No. 7 Florida Gators
Why they will advance
Other than a puzzling loss to Vanderbilt in the regular-season finale, the Gators remained on a steady upward arc in SEC play. Walter Clayton Jr. (17 PPG) and Zyon Pullin (15.7 PPG, 5.8 APG) are stone-cold playmakers late in tight games. Tyrese Samuel (13.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG) is a physical interior force in the nation's 17th most efficient offense.
Why they won't advance
Despite having the nation's 11th tallest team per KenPom, the Gators struggled to defend the paint and leading rebounder, 7-1 sophomore Micah Handlogten, suffered a season-ending leg injury in the SEC title game. They are 202nd in defensive rebounding percentage and allowed opponents to make 48.1% of their 2-point shots (104th). The Gators were also prone to cold shooting nights.
Did you know?
Todd Golden, 38, is the nation's second-youngest power conference coach and despite his western roots seems comfortable in Gainesville, recently signing a contract extension through 2030. Under him, the Gators played at the fastest pace in program history this season (30th adjusted tempo) and had the best offense (17th efficiency) since Billy Donovan steered the program to the Final Four in 2014.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 23
Résumé rating: 20
NCAA seed list: 25
Joey Brackets says ...
The loss of Handlogten is troubling. A potential Sweet 16 team, the Gators now figure to struggle against whoever emerges from the First Four (Boise State or Colorado). I would take either over Florida at this point, which is unfortunate given its impressive growth under Golden.
Final field rank: 38
No. 8 Nebraska Cornhuskers
Why they will advance
Big Dance-bound for the first time since 2014, Nebraska features four double-figure scorers: sweet-shooting guard Keisei Tominaga (14.6 PPG), stat-sheet-stuffing big Rienk Mast (12.7 PPG), relentless wing Brice Williams (12.4 PPG) and underrated forward Juwan Gary (11.9 PPG). Born in Nagoya, Japan, Tominaga has modeled his game after Stephen Curry -- sporting the same No. 30 on his uniform and anywhere-in-the-gym range as his idol.
Why they won't advance
Foes that beat Fred Hoiberg's well-coached team generally possess three traits: 1) a big man who is comfortable guarding the Huskers' stretch-4 Mast away from the hoop; 2) a team-wide fervor to box out like the buffalo in the Buffalo Wild Wings ad that's in heavy March Madness rotation; and 3) net-snapping perimeter shooters -- Nebraska has allowed 257 made 3-pointers this season.
Did you know?
Tominaga is aiming to become just the third player of Japanese descent to be drafted by an NBA team-joining Wat Misaka, who was drafted in the seventh round by the New York Knicks back in 1947, and Rui Hachimura, who was selected ninth overall by the Washington Wizards in the 2019 NBA draft.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 28
Résumé rating: 25
NCAA seed list: 29
Joey Brackets says ...
Hoiberg had NCAA tournament coaching success during his days at Iowa State. But it's his first Big Dance with the Huskers, so it'll be interesting to see how they react. My guess is that there will be only early-game jitters. If they can manage those nerves, I see Nebraska getting by Texas A&M before falling to Houston in the second round.
Final field rank: 22
No. 9 Texas A&M Aggies
Why they will advance
The Aggies' offense started clicking in early March when Manny Obaseki became a starter, tallying 83 points in his first five games in the role. This is the best offensive rebounding team in the nation and is 22nd in turnover rate, creating a decisive shot volume edge. Wade Taylor IV (18.5 PPG, 4 APG) and Tyrece Radford (15.9 PPG, 6.0 RPG) are proven guards.
Why they won't advance
Despite a late flurry of efficiency, A&M overall had unreliable shot-making and an overreliance on points via free throws. A&M is 297th in 2-point percentage (47.1) and 356th in 3-point percentage (28.6). The Aggies scored 22.8% of their points on free throws (29th) and teams with a similar profile typically struggle in the NCAA tournament, where officials are generally reluctant to initiate a foul festival.
Did you know?
Coach Buzz Williams is making his 10th appearance in the NCAA tournament and second with the Aggies after prior appearances with Marquette and Virginia Tech. The Aggies have ranked top-50 in KenPom for three consecutive years for the first time since 2011. This is his most balanced team in five years in College Station, ranking top-50 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 34
Résumé rating: 43
NCAA seed list: 34
Joey Brackets says ...
A&M hasn't advanced past the first round since Billy Kennedy led the program to the Sweet 16 in 2018, and that streak continues. Despite strong backcourt play from Taylor IV and Radford plus Obaseki's added scoring, Nebraska is the more complete team in this 8-9 matchup.
Final field rank: 48
No. 10 Boise State Broncos
Why they will advance
The Mountain West's second-place team enters the field of 68 on a mission to win the first NCAA tournament game in school history. Boise State went 7-2 on the road in one of the nation's toughest leagues and has a relentless work ethic on the glass led by offensive rebounding stalwart O'mar Stanley.
Why they won't advance
The Broncos play just a seven-man rotation and rank 311th in the country in bench minutes. Combine that with some suspect 3-point shooting in their conference losses and it seems this club may not be built for a deep run. Almost 21% of their points come from free throws and those may be harder to come by in the Big Dance.
Did you know?
Coach Leon Rice spent 11 seasons as an assistant under Mark Few at Gonzaga and was his first outside hire. Rice and the Broncos have made four separate trips to the tournament, including losses in each of the last two years thanks to tough draws against Memphis and Northwestern.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 38
Résumé rating: 41
NCAA seed list: 38
Joey Brackets says ...
Tyson Degenhart has elevated his game from a good player to a great one and the Broncos seemingly have the right pieces to outwork Colorado in the First Four and cross a win in the Big Dance off of their bucket list. The euphoria could last too, with another win over banged-up Florida in the Round of 64.
Final field rank: 23
No. 10 Colorado Buffaloes
Why they will advance
The Buffaloes got hot at the right time, riding a six-game winning streak down the stretch to finish third in the Pac-12 regular season and reach the league title game. They're one of the best offensive teams in the country, ranking in the mid-30s at 80.6 points per game. They're in the top 10 in field goal percentage, hitting just a hair under half their shots.
Why they won't advance
Colorado is inconsistent, partly due to injuries. With three projected NBA first-round draft picks (Cody Williams, Tristan da Silva and KJ Simpson), their sights were undoubtedly set higher. But da Silva missed three games and Williams missed 13. They like to share the ball, but often with the other team. They have just three fewer turnovers than assists per game.
Did you know?
Colorado was a power in the early days of the NCAA tournament, reaching the Final Four in two of the first four tournaments. But it's been a while since the Buffs have been a factor. They haven't reached the Sweet 16 since 1969, despite making the tournament seven times since, five of them under Tad Boyle.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 31
Résumé rating: 30
NCAA seed list: 39
Joey Brackets says ...
Sometimes teams that have to scramble to make the field carry their momentum in the early rounds. There is way too much talent on this roster to ignore the Buffaloes, especially with Cody Williams fully healthy. Their First Four encounter with Boise State feels more like a Round of 32 matchup. I'm as torn over that game as any other in the bracket, with a very small lean against the Buffaloes.
Final field rank: 63
No. 11 NC State Wolfpack
Why they will advance
NC State made history by defeating top-seeded North Carolina, 84-76, in the ACC championship game, claiming its first ACC tournament title since 1987. Coach Kevin Keatts' club enters the Big Dance brimming with confidence and sports four double-figure scorers in DJ Horne (16.9 PPG), DJ Burns Jr. (12.4 PPG), Jayden Taylor (11.9 PPG) and Casey Morsell (11.5 PPG).
Why they won't advance
One has to wonder if the Wolfpack used up all of their magic pixie dust in last week's incredible five-wins-in-five-days run in the ACC tournament -- including wins over the ACC's No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in consecutive days. Even if this team doesn't have a letdown, NC State's D can be leaky at times as opponents averaged 72.7 PPG against it.
Did you know?
No one should be all that surprised NC State made so much noise last week. After all, their top two scorers are Horne, a battle-tested guard who sports a "919" tattoo (Raleigh's area code) and a "Why not us?" mantra, and the 6-9 Burns Jr., who is generously listed at 275 pounds and is blessed with a soft touch around the basket.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 45
Résumé rating: 46
NCAA seed list: 45
Joey Brackets says ...
There isn't a more confident team in this field than the "Why not us?" Wolfpack. To keep its March magic going, Keatts' squad will need its two DJs to keep making sweet music, Taylor and Morsell to keep knocking down shots and forward Mohamed Diarra to keep gobbling up rebounds. If all that happens, a Sweet 16 run is possible. More likely, NC is out of gas with no time to refuel.
Final field rank: 45
No. 12 James Madison Dukes
Why they will advance
James Madison has consistently shown it can score a ton of points. Led by Sun Belt Player of the Year Terrence Edwards Jr., the Dukes have averaged 84.2 points per game, good for 11th in the country. Additionally, JMU's roster is peppered with seniors and juniors; this is the 8th most experienced team in the country.
Why they won't advance
There aren't any glaring issues. The Dukes rank highly in a plethora of statistical categories but have played mostly inferior competition. According to KenPom, JMU ranks 293rd in strength of schedule and has played 23 of its 34 games against Quad 4 opponents. Thirty-one wins is 31 wins, but the schedule has not prepared the Dukes to win in the tournament.
Did you know?
James Madison graduate student T.J. Bickerstaff is the nephew of Cleveland Cavaliers coach J.B. Bickerstaff and the grandson of longtime NBA coach Bernie Bickerstaff. A transfer from Boston College, T.J. averaged 13.6 points and 8.6 rebounds per game this season and received second-team All-Sun Belt honors.
-- Brendan Farrell
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 42
Résumé rating: 47
NCAA seed list: 48
Joey Brackets says ...
JMU has been dominant all year. Success breeds confidence and that, combined with their experience, makes me think the Dukes won't be an easy out. Just ask Wisconsin after the upset.
Final field rank: 29
No. 13 Vermont Catamounts
Why they will advance
John Becker's Vermont teams usually hang their hats on crisp, efficient offense. While these Catamounts ranked 2nd in the American East offensively, it was defense that set them apart from their conference foes. Shamir Bogues and Ileri Ayo-Faleye bring a level of talent usually not seen at this level of Division I.
Why they won't advance
If a team like Vermont is going to pull off an ambush, it would need every arrow available in its quiver. Becker essentially sticks to a seven-man rotation but is currently without graduate student Matt Veretto, who has missed five straight games with a shoulder injury. He's a steady presence on both ends of the floor and would be sorely missed in an upset bid.
Did you know?
The Catamounts have an unusual entry on the injury report: coach John Becker, who dislocated his shoulder. Becker coached in a sling in the America East title game and now looks to replicate the success of a prior injured coach, March Madness legend Ron Hunter of Georgia State, famous for coaching from (and slipping off) a stool during an upset win.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 52
Résumé rating: 51
NCAA seed list: 51
Joey Brackets says ...
This will be Becker's fifth trip to the Big Dance with the Catamounts since 2017. In that stretch, Vermont has had some close calls, yet hasn't had its moment with the glass slipper yet. I think they will come up short again versus Duke.
Final field rank: 50
No. 14 Oakland Golden Grizzlies
Why they will advance
Oakland punched its ticket with an 83-76 win over Milwaukee in the Horizon League title game, powered by Trey Townsend (38 points, 11 boards), the 2024 conference player of the year. Townsend (16.9 PPG) is clearly Oakland's go-to guy but Blake Lampman (13.2 PPG), Jack Gohlke (12.2 PPG) and Chris Conway (10.1 PPG) can score too.
Why they won't advance
Oakland has fared respectably against brand-name programs this year -- beating Xavier and losing by single digits to Illinois, Drake and Ohio State. However, its matchup zone isn't airtight (72.9 PPG allowed). And given the quality of its first-round foe, Townsend, a rebounding ace, must avoid foul trouble.
Did you know?
Oakland's super sixth man Jack Gohlke has taken the concept of being a 3-point specialist to new lengths. A transfer from Division II Hillsdale College, Gohlke has attempted 335 total shots this season for Oakland -- 327 of them have come from behind the 3-point arc (no, that's not a typo). Fittingly, Gohlke (121 made threes) wears. you guessed it, No. 3.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 57
Résumé rating: 55
NCAA seed list: 55
Joey Brackets says ...
There's lots to love about Oakland. It has America's best X's and O's man nobody knows in coach Greg Kampe, a hidden gem who excels in the isolation game (Townsend), a former walk-on who has blossomed into an all-league guard (Lampman) and the 3-point shooting fiend Gohlke. But there are serious questions about Oakland's ability to defend. Can the Golden Grizzlies win a first round shootout? Maybe. Will it happen against Kentucky? Nope. Probably.
Final field rank: 53
No. 15 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Why they will advance
The Hilltoppers aren't dependent on one main scorer. After leading scorer Don McHenry (14.9 PPG), they have eight other players averaging between 6.3 and 10.3 points per game. With that type of balance, WKU is one of the top-30 scoring offenses in the country, and can look to multiple options to carry the load if McHenry has an off night.
Why they won't advance
Western Kentucky hardly enters the Big Dance on a roll. The Hilltoppers lost their final four regular-season games heading into the conference tournament, where they faced the fifth, sixth and seventh seeds. The level of competition they'll face in the NCAA tournament will be a test they haven't faced this season, as their strength of schedule is around 200th in the country.
Did you know?
The Hilltoppers have appeared in the NCAA tournament 24 times previously, representing three different conferences. This is their first time representing Conference USA, where they've been a member for the past 10 seasons. Their last appearance was in 2013 as a member of the Sun Belt conference. Western Kentucky played in the Final Four in 1971, winning the third-place game over Kansas.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 60
Résumé rating: 59
NCAA seed list: 60
Joey Brackets says ...
Mid-major programs who sneak into the NCAA tournament generally don't last very long. That certainly describes Western Kentucky, which finished third in the C-USA and then didn't face a higher seed in the conference tournament. I don't expect the Hilltoppers to break that trend, thanks to Marquette.
Final field rank: 56
No. 16 Longwood Lancers
Why they will advance
Longwood is firing on all cylinders at the right time. The Lancers won twice from Dec. 18 to Feb. 9, but arrive at the Big Dance having won seven of the past nine games. Longwood is 43rd in defensive turnover rate and 42nd in defensive rebounding percentage. Walyn Napper (14.6 PPG, 4.6 APG) is a wily 7-foot point guard Szymon Zapala (9.9 PPG, 5.7 RPG) anchor the frontcourt.
Why they won't advance
Recent history doesn't bode well for the Big South champion. Longwood lost to Tennessee by 32 points in the 2022 NCAA tournament. Last year's champion, UNC Asheville, lost to UCLA by 33. Longwood doesn't possess the 3-point firepower required to produce an upset, ranking 338th in percentage of points scored from beyond-the-arc per KenPom, while allowing a 51.3% effective field goal percentage (226th).
Did you know?
Coach Griff Aldrich spent 16 years as a corporate attorney and businessman before joining the UMBC staff in 2016, playing a role as it shocked No. 1 seed Virginia in the 2018 NCAA tournament. He came to Farmville, VA. weeks later, taking over a program with one winning D1 season since 2006 and just led Longwood to its third consecutive 20-win season.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 61
Résumé rating: 63
NCAA seed list: 63
Joey Brackets says ...
Longwood had to win its final Big South regular-season game to avoid finishing last in the league. It did so, then rolled through the conference tournament, beating the top two seeds. It's been a remarkable run but the Lancers have just two players from the 2022 tournament team and won't dominate the offensive glass like they did against conference foes, leading to a long day against Houston and a short stay in the bracket.
Final field rank: 59
MIDWEST
No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers
Why they will advance
Purdue has waited 52 weeks to avenge last March's historic upset versus Fairleigh Dickinson, the second-ever No. 1 seed loss to a 16-seed. Fueled by that disappointment and playing with a collective chip on their shoulders, the Boilermakers have been an absolute juggernaut this year, led by the individual brilliance of All-American Zach Edey.
Why they won't advance
Defending the Boilermakers is a pick-your-poison proposition: Either double-team Edey, a double-double machine, and hope Purdue's perimeter players miss enough open jumpers -- or contest the 3-point shots and let Edey feast against your center. Expect opponents to opt for double-teams, hoping the Boilermakers' recent NCAA tournament shooting woes return. The problem? Purdue is shooting 40.9% as a team from behind the arc this year.
Did you know?
In the past two NCAA tournaments, Purdue has fallen to No. 15 seed Saint Peter's and No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson. Those upsets to New Jersey-based schools were fueled by Purdue miscues (15.5 turnovers per game) and wayward 3-point aim (combined 21%). The leap to stardom by Braden Smith and addition of the ultra-tough Lance Jones should ensure an early exit doesn't happen again.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 3
Résumé rating: 2
NCAA seed list: 3
Joey Brackets says ...
Edey is an unstoppable force. He's the top item on every scouting report and still averaged 24.1 points and nearly 12 boards per contest. His presence, Purdue's bevy of 3-point shooters and the fuel provided by last year's first-round exit are reasons to believe the Boilermakers can break the 24-year Big Ten streak without a national champion. But "can" doesn't mean "will." This year's villain will be Gonzaga in the Sweet 16.
Final field rank: 9
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers
Why they will advance
Rick Barnes' fifth 25-win team in the past seven years is the best of the bunch. The Vols have a top-5 defense, per KenPom adjusted efficiency, holding teams to 43.6% on 2-pointers (6th) with elite rim protection (19th in block rate). They have a star scorer in Dalton Knecht. The SEC Player of the Year averaged 21.4 PPG on 47% shooting.
Why they won't advance
Tennessee has fooled us before. The Vols are joining March Madness for the sixth time in seven years but have yet to advance beyond the Sweet 16 under Barnes. Knecht hit 40% of his 3-point attempts, but the shooting is spotty around him (142nd in 3-point percentage, 118th in 2-point percentage). Tennessee shot worse than 30% on 3s in five defeats.
Did you know?
This is Tennessee's 26th NCAA tournament appearance, but it has never advanced to the Final Four. Barnes has won 803 games in 37 years with prior stops at George Mason, Providence, Clemson and Texas, yet has been to the Final Four only once -- in 2003 with the Longhorns. The Vols are either due or cursed, depending on how you look at it.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 7
Résumé rating: 6
NCAA seed list: 5
Joey Brackets says ...
The suffering ends this season, Vols fans. Tennessee's blend of scoring, size, depth and experience combined with the lessons learned competing against a top-10 schedule will propel Barnes back to the tournament's final weekend and cement his legendary status in Knoxville. The Vols' top seven players have a 112 offensive rating or better, providing the requisite offensive firepower for a run to Glendale.
Final field rank: 4
No. 3 Creighton Bluejays
Why they will advance
Greg McDermott's Bluejays make a simple bet every time they play. Creighton is going to take a ton of 3s, only attacking inside for high-percentage rim looks. Defensively, they'll allow you the opposite: preventing the 3, having star center Ryan Kalkbrenner defend the bucket and allowing mid-range shots. In the long run, with the shooters and defenders on Creighton's roster, it's a smart play.
Why they won't advance
That game plan might be a good bet, but it's still a gamble. If Creighton's looks from beyond the arc aren't falling and it faces a team that can feast efficiently on mid-range jumpers, the math falls apart. Both UConn and St. John's showed that smart playmakers can find scoring chances in blowout wins over the Bluejays this season.
Did you know?
Starting forward Mason Miller is the son of former Florida Gator and longtime NBA sharpshooter Mike Miller. With a strong tournament, Mason could eclipse his dad's number of made 3s in college, though his 45% shooting this season already dwarfs his old man's best year in Gainesville (36%).
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 10
Résumé rating: 15
NCAA seed list: 10
Joey Brackets says ...
The Creighton game plan is good enough to win a few games in March, but 3-point-happy teams can struggle to offset a cold shooting night in the NCAA tournament. In the past five tourneys, only two top-40 3-point shooting teams have advanced beyond the Sweet 16 (Villanova in 2018 and in 2022). I think a second weekend cold streak sends the Bluejays home against Tennessee.
Final field rank: 11
No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks
Why they will advance
When healthy, Kansas has one of the best starting fives in college basketball. They're good inside, with 7-2 Hunter Dickinson and K.J. Adams Jr., who plays like he's on a pogo stick. They're good on the wing with Kevin McCullar Jr. and Johnny Furphy. And guard Dajuan Harris Jr. is a steadying influence at the point. And, as always, the Jayhawks play tough defense.
Why they won't advance
The Jayhawks aren't very deep. McCullar missed several games with a knee injury and Dickinson dislocated his shoulder in the regular-season finale loss at Houston. Neither played in the Big 12 tournament. If they aren't at full strength in the NCAA tournament, the Jayhawks will struggle. This is probably coach Bill Self's thinnest lineup in his 21 years at the helm.
Did you know?
The Jayhawks were 2-7 on the road in the Big 12 this season, the most road losses in the Self era. Their eight Big 12 losses were also the most for Kansas under Self and the most regular-season losses ever by a Self-coached team.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 20
Résumé rating: 12
NCAA seed list: 14
Joey Brackets says ...
The Jayhawks are almost always a threat to win it all, especially under two-time national championship Coach Self. But this year doesn't look like one of those years. The surprising lack of bench production -- they got 11.9 PPG from nonstarters (336th in Division I) during the regular season -- will cause the Jayhawks' season to end before the promised land. Add in the uncertainty surrounding their two stars, and we're picking Samford to end it quickly.
Final field rank: 33
No. 5 Gonzaga Bulldogs
Why they will advance
In conference play, Gonzaga had the most efficient offensive performance since KenPom began tracking per possession stats in the late 1990s. The Bulldogs' offense is fast, rarely makes mistakes and is built to find golden scoring opportunities around the rim.
Why they won't advance
If you had to label each of Gonzaga's players with a position, four of the Zags' top six would likely be tabbed as "power forwards." That affords the Zags certain advantages around the rim on both ends, but limits their offensive playmaking and defensive versatility. The defensive issues have been apparent, with the Bulldogs often slow to close out on shooters.
Did you know?
The Zags can tie the all-time record for consecutive trips to the Sweet Sixteen this year. They have earned their way to the second weekend in eight straight tournaments, dating back to 2015. Duke (1998-2006) and North Carolina (1985-1993) did it in nine consecutive years. Gonzaga has also won at least one game in every NCAA tournament since 2009.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 15
Résumé rating: 29
NCAA seed list: 21
Joey Brackets says ...
Spare a thought for any high seed placed in the same pod as the Zags. The Bulldogs have a coach with 41 NCAA tournament wins, tons of size and talent and a veteran point guard in Ryan Nembhard who is ready for the big moment. Despite a lower seed (for them), the Zags pull off the wins needed to reach a ninth straight Sweet 16 ... And beyond.
Final field rank: 7
No. 6 South Carolina Gamecocks
Why they will advance
The Gamecocks control pace (354th in adjusted tempo), defend ferociously (35th in effective field goal percentage defense) and control possessions via a low turnover rate and relentless offensive rebounding. Lamont Paris is worthy of national coach of the year honors for keeping this roster in the SEC regular-season title hunt until the last weeks of the race.
Why they won't advance
It feels as if South Carolina overperformed relative to its talent all season, building confidence against a nonconference schedule rated 335th in difficulty and capitalizing on a powerful homecourt advantage during SEC play. But the Gamecocks are prone to long scoring droughts, ranking 148th in effective field goal percentage and 198th in free throw shooting, and failed to score 70 points in all six of their losses.
Did you know?
Versatile forward Myles Stute missed six games in the SEC schedule but returned for the final two and the Gamecocks are happy to have his 3-point accuracy (39.6%) back on the floor. He and Ta'Lon Cooper (45.1% from 3) are vital pieces to South Carolina's attack because paint points were scarce. Only six teams had their shots blocked more often than the Gamecocks.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 39
Résumé rating: 14
NCAA seed list: 24
Joey Brackets says ...
It's been a magical season in Columbia, as Paris directed the Gamecocks back to the NCAA tournament for the first time since they reached the Final Four in 2017. But it's likely to be a short trip. South Carolina's seeding, pace, middling talent and propensity for offensive lulls make it a prime candidate for an opening-round upset, especially against crafty Dana Altman and Oregon.
Final field rank: 37
No. 7 Texas Longhorns
Why they will advance
The Longhorns are efficient on offense. They were in the top third of the Big 12 in field goal percentage. They're even better from 3-point range, where they finished second in the conference at 36.6%. And in crunch time, their 75.7% success rate from the 3-point line will come in handy.
Why they won't advance
Texas allows 34.8% of its opponents' 3-point shots to go in, 255th best in Division I. It also isn't particularly strong on the glass, with just a 1.3 rebounding margin, 11th in the Big 12 conference.
Did you know?
Texas has won national championships in 14 different sports, but it has never even played for the national title in men's basketball. It won those titles after its last Final Four appearance in 2003.
--David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 22
Résumé rating: 39
NCAA seed list: 27
Joey Brackets says ...
If experience means anything, the Longhorns have a chance to make waves in the tournament. They have three graduate students and a junior among their top five scorers. The combination of Max Abmas and Dylan Disu, both averaging more than 16 points per game, will lead the Longhorns into a tense second-round encounter with former coach Barnes.
Final field rank: 24
No. 8 Utah State Aggies
Why they will advance
Mountain West Coach of the Year Danny Sprinkle's squad boasts one of the nation's most efficient offenses, led by MWC Player of the Year Great Osobor. Utah State gets 2-point buckets at the 11th highest percentage in D-I and Osobor draws fouls at the 17th best clip. The Montana State transfer followed his coach to Logan and opposing defenses wish they could send him back.
Why they won't advance
The Aggies' offense relies so much on paint touches that the 3-point line becomes an afterthought. It will likely to run into an opponent that will cut off point guard extraordinaire Darius Brown II's dribble penetration and force the supporting cast to make perimeter shots. The Mountain West regular-season champs get less than 23% of their points from the outside, 332nd in D-I.
Did you know?
Utah State's regular-season championship was its first outright title since it joined the Mountain West in 2013-14. The Aggies are making their 24th tourney appearance and haven't won a game in the Big Dance since 2001, when legendary coach Stew Morrill steered them to an upset of Ohio State. They would bow a game later to Jason Kapono and UCLA.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 43
Résumé rating: 22
NCAA seed list: 30
Joey Brackets says ...
Kudos to Sprinkle for crafting a roster on short notice that took USU to the tournament in his first season. The Aggies could ride the Montana State duo of Osobor and Brown II to an opening round win, but even that's unlikely outside of Logan. Too many bad shooting nights from the perimeter means TCU will expose those warts fairly quickly to send them packing.
Final field rank: 39
No. 9 TCU Horned Frogs
Why they will advance
The Horned Frogs will put the ball in the basket. They finished the Big 12 regular season third in scoring and had a point differential of 8.8. When they did miss shots, they did a good job of crashing the boards, averaging 12.1 offensive rebounds per game. They also had good balance, with six players averaging at least 8.2 points per game.
Why they won't advance
Just as the Horned Frogs like to score points, they also aren't averse to watching the opposition score, as evidenced by their 71.6 points per game allowed, which ranked 12th in the Big 12 regular season and 166th in Division I. No Horned Frog lead is safe as they allow 44.6% of field goal attempts to go in, 230th in Division I.
Did you know?
TCU likes to share the ball, handing out a little more than 17.5 assists per game. That's not surprising, since coach Jamie Dixon led the Southwest Conference in assists in his senior season ... At TCU, in 1987, earning the Horned Frogs their first NCAA tournament appearance in 16 years.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 26
Résumé rating: 40
NCAA seed list: 35
Joey Brackets says ...
TCU has the depth to make a deep run in this tournament. It can score in a variety of ways. But it also has trouble shutting down the opposition. Still, it's impossible for me to pick against any team with a Jameer Nelson (Jr. in this case) on it to be one-and-done. Horned Frogs make it to the Round of 32 and Purdue.
Final field rank: 25
No. 10 Colorado State Rams
Why they will advance
The Rams had a schedule as hard as any in D-I; they played one of the toughest nonconference slates in the country. They are deeper than a year ago, and first-team All-Mountain West point guard Isaiah Stevens' decision to return to Fort Collins was a shot in the arm for a high-octane offense that shot 2-point buckets at a top-10 clip.
Why they won't advance
For as good as they are on 2s, the perimeter woes for coach Niko Medved's club are well documented. Colorado State bowed out of the Mountain West semis by going 6-for-28 from beyond the arc. The Rams had shot the 3 fairly well before conference play began, but playing in a league where four other schools reside in the top 50 in defensive efficiency probably didn't help.
Did you know?
Stevens has the seventh-highest assist rate in all of Division I at 39.6%. That means he drops a dime on close to four out of every 10 field goals when he's on the court for the Rams. Stevens became CSU's all-time scoring leader in December, and he didn't come back to school to go home early.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 41
Résumé rating: 37
NCAA seed list: 44
Joey Brackets says ...
The Rams have more than enough scoring punch to win their First Four matchup against Virginia, and Stevens likely becomes a fan favorite. Colorado State thrives when it scores over 75 points, and while it won't get there against UVa, "ramming" speed will truly come to a halt in the second round against Texas.
Final field rank: 62
No. 10 Virginia Cavaliers
Why they will advance
Tony Bennett's Cavaliers protect the ball like it's their firstborn, and they play defense like their scholarships will be revoked if they don't. They finished third in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 59 points per contest. Virginia's two main ministers of defense are Reece Beekman, the Cavaliers' all-time steals leader, and Ryan Dunn, who led the ACC with 2.4 blocks per game.
Why they won't advance
The Cavaliers only have two double-figure scorers on their roster in Beekman (14.3 PPG), a 2024 second-team All-ACC selection, and fellow guard Isaac McKneely (12.4 PPG). So, scoring points can be a problem for Virginia (63.5 PPG) -- which is why the Cavaliers were on the bubble just days before Selection Sunday.
Did you know?
Beekman always guards the opponent's top perimeter threat and finished second in the ACC with 2.1 steals per game. His airtight defense hasn't gone unnoticed, as he has been chosen ACC Defensive Player of the Year the past two years, the first ACC hoopster to earn back-to-back honors since North Carolina's John Henson in 2011 and 2012.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 47
Résumé rating: 32
NCAA seed list: 41
Joey Brackets says ...
Virginia's deliberate style limits the number of possessions and therefore keeps the score low for both squads. Because this year's edition of the Cavaliers lacks the usual muscle-bound 4-men, Virginia gets fewer easy baskets and its margin for error is wafer-thin, so a slightly off perimeter shooting game will doom it. I don't foresee UVa surviving even the First Four against Colorado State.
Final field rank: 64
No. 11 Oregon Ducks
Why they will advance
The Ducks are pretty good at learning from their mistakes. Their last four wins, including the three in the Pac-12 tournament, came against teams that had defeated them earlier in the season. If Dana Altman and his staff can make adjustments in the middle of games, they have the talent and balance to make some noise.
Why they won't advance
There's nothing outstanding about the Ducks. They have a point differential of just 3.3 per game. They shoot and give up almost identical percentages in field goals, 3-point shooting and even free throws. Their rebounding margin per game is less than one carom. There aren't any statistics that lead one to believe that the Ducks might have a significant advantage.
Did you know?
The Ducks own the NCAA record for longest stretch between Final Four appearances. They won the inaugural NCAA championship in 1939 and didn't return until 2017. In the intervening years, they appeared in 13 NCAA tournaments and lost five Elite Eight games before defeating top-seeded Kansas in the regional final in 2017 -- falling a week later to eventual national champion North Carolina.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 44
Résumé rating: 42
NCAA seed list: 43
Joey Brackets says ...
The Ducks had to upset Arizona in the Pac-12 semifinals and then Colorado in the title game to even get into the field. They will always be able to say they won the last Pac-12 tournament championship. And they may claim a little more before heading to the Big Ten. Let's go with the Ducks in a mini-upset of South Carolina.
Final field rank: 27
No. 12 McNeese Cowboys
Why they will advance
McNeese dominated its schedule, finishing 30-3 and outscoring opponents by an average of 19 points. While the Cowboys' offense is impressive, it is their defense that will overwhelm. They rank fourth nationally in points allowed per game, third in steals per game and ninth in turnovers forced per game.
Why they won't advance
Free throw shooting has been a struggle this season. McNeese ranks 66th in the country in free throws attempted, but comes in at 289th in free throw percentage. In their three losses this year, the Cowboys shot a combined 60% from the line. They can score, they can defend, but their inconsistency from the line could hurt them.
Did you know?
The 15-man roster includes just four players who began their careers with the Cowboys; eight who began their careers at other Division I schools; and three who arrived from junior colleges. The usual starting five does not include a single player who began his career at McNeese.
-- Brendan Farrell
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 48
Résumé rating: 50
NCAA seed list: 49
Joey Brackets says ...
McNeese hasn't played a schedule to get ready for the NCAA tournament. The Cowboys faced only one major conference opponent in Michigan and three non-Division I teams. They have loads of talent, including Southland Conference player of the year Shahada Wells, but they will most likely be overwhelmed by Gonzaga's high-octane attack and Mark Few's tourney experience.
Final field rank: 47
No. 13 Samford Bulldogs
Why they will advance
Bucky Ball! The nation's 14th-fastest attack, named for coach Bucky McMillan, is beautiful basketball, delivering every element required to cause chaos in March Madness. The Bulldogs force turnovers at a high rate (15th). They're an elite 3-point operation, hitting 39.3% (7th) and scoring 34% of their points on 3s. They convert 55.5% of 2-pointers (21st) and are 119th in defending the rim.
Why they won't advance
Although they dominated the Southern Conference, the Bulldogs faced only two top-100 opponents per KenPom -- in the first two games of the season -- and their nonconference schedule ranked 326th in difficulty. When they weren't forcing turnovers, they were exposed on the backboard (313th in defensive rebounding percentage). Their aggressive defense also allows a high rate of 3s (opponents convert 40.1%).
Did you know?
McMillan averaged 28 wins during 12 years at Mountain Brook High, a 15-minute drive from the Samford campus, turning the program into a national prep powerhouse. Samford won six games in 2020-21, McMillan's first season, yet after a 28-point loss in that year's SoCon tourney opener, he guaranteed the players seated beside him would cut down the nets before they graduated. And they did.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 50
Résumé rating: 49
NCAA seed list: 53
Joey Brackets says ...
Samford produced 86 PPG with the nation's 68th-most efficient offense. Six-foot-9 forward Achor Achor creates matchup nightmares. He made 63% of 2-pointers, 45% of 3-pointers and drew 6.9 fouls per 40 minutes (18th). Rylan Jones runs the offense with poise and is yet another dangerous 3-point gunner. Back in the bracket for the first time in 24 years, Samford is built to bust it open.
Final field rank: 31
No. 14 Akron Zips
Why they will advance
Akron is in the Big Dance for the second time in three seasons after edging Kent State 62-61 in the MAC's cut-down-the-nets game in Cleveland last weekend. The Zips won't be a first-round pushover, thanks to the presence of 6-7 double-double machine Enrique Freeman (18.6 PPG, 13 RPG), the live-wire Ali Ali (15.6 PPG) and hard-working guard Greg Tribble (10.5 PPG).
Why they won't advance
Akron likes to play fast -- sometimes, too fast -- and can be turnover-prone at times (11.4 per game). John Groce's squad has three indispensable pieces in Freeman, Ali and Tribble. But Freeman fouled out of three games and Tribble has four disqualifications this season. If foul trouble strikes either one, the Zips will have little chance of advancing.
Did you know?
Freeman's rise from onetime Akron walk-on to Zips superstar couldn't have been predicted five years ago. He led the nation in rebounding and was one of just 15 Division I players to average a double-double. He enters the 2024 tournament with an eye-popping 1,822 career points and 1,391 career rebounds.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 56
Résumé rating: 56
NCAA seed list: 56
Joey Brackets says ...
Akron won't be fazed by the enormity of March Madness, as the Zips were here in 2022. While Freeman is a double-double demon, the Zips lack a power-conference-sized big, so Groce will need an everyone-on-the-glass mentality from his gritty squad. Akron won't go down without a fight, but Creighton simply has too much size and firepower.
Final field rank: 51
No. 15 Saint Peter's Peacocks
Why they will advance
Saint Peter's enters March Madness playing with supreme confidence. Second-year coach Bashir Mason's team kept the receipts after being swept in the regular season by all three of its conference tournament opponents, defeating all three in Atlantic City, including top-seed Quinnipiac. The Peacocks play relentless defense, much like Mason did as a player, and force turnovers at the nation's 31st-highest rate.
Why they won't advance
The Peacocks don't strut quite the same way on offense. Saint Peter's ranks in the 300s in offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, 2-point percentage and turnover percentage. By this time of year, teams generally are what their numbers say they are. Saint Peter's will have to get a ton of points off turnovers to keep up in the tournament.
Did you know?
Bashir Mason succeeded Shaheen Holloway in Jersey City shortly after the Peacocks' Elite Eight run two years ago. Their first game this season came against Holloway's Seton Hall squad, and Saint Peter's actually led by a point at the half. Holloway and the Pirates held on but needed to hit their free throws in what was a two-possession game at the final media timeout.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 63
Résumé rating: 64
NCAA seed list: 62
Joey Brackets says ...
KC Ndefo and Doug Edert won't be walking through the door for the Peacocks. The current version of Saint Peter's just struggles to score too much to pull off an upset this year. The offensive lulls will be too much to overcome against Tennessee's stout defense, and the Peacocks will be back in Jersey City before the weekend.
Final field rank: 60
No. 16 Montana State Bobcats
Why they will advance
The Bobcats have "spurtability." In the Big Sky conference tournament final, they outscored archrival Montana 41-9 to turn a double-digit deficit into a comfortable lead that lasted the rest of the night. They have a balanced scoring attack, with five players averaging in double figures and seven averaging at least 8.4 points per game.
Why they won't advance
Montana State doesn't do anything that much better than its opposition. The Bobcats have a point differential of 1.1 per game. They shoot 46.6% from the field but allow opponents to shoot 46.5%. They have less than an assist per game more than their opponents. Against increased competition in the NCAA tournament, those stats won't be enough.
Did you know?
Montana State has reached its third straight NCAA tournament and the sixth in school history, but the Bobcats have never won a game in the tournament. The past two years, the Bobcats lost by 35 points as a 12-seed and by 12 as a 15-seed.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 65
Résumé rating: 67
NCAA seed list: 65
Joey Brackets says ...
Montana State gets a winning draw in the First Four, but not so much after that. The Bobcats finished only 9-9 in the Big Sky and got hot at the right time to claim the conference's automatic bid. Purdue will end its early-round losing streak.
Final field rank: 65
No. 16 Grambling Tigers
Why they will advance
Grambling is an experienced team and played a tough schedule. The Tigers start three seniors, a junior and a sophomore, with two more seniors coming off the bench. They have experience and continuity. Also, although Grambling is 0-6 in Quad 1 games, the high-level competition will serve it well and could yet pay dividends.
Why they won't advance
Grambling isn't particularly great at any aspect of the game and lacks the elite talent to make a deep run. Leading scorer Kintavious Dozier averages 13.1 points per game, with two other teammates just cracking double digits. As a team, the Tigers rank 312th in the nation in points per game at 67.6.
Did you know?
Grambling men's basketball is going to the NCAA tournament for the first time in school history. The Tigers have previously been to the Elite Eight in Division II and won an NAIA championship in 1958. In his seventh year as head coach, Donte Jackson has made history.
-- Brendan Farrell
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 67
Résumé rating: 65
NCAA seed list: 67
Joey Brackets says ...
Grambling is making history with its first NCAA tournament appearance, but it will be very hard for the Tigers to keep the fun going. They are strong defensively, but their inability to score will make it tough for them to advance, even in a First Four game against Montana State.
Final field rank: 67
WEST
No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels
Why they will advance
Led by big-time bucket-getter RJ Davis and double-double machine Armando Bacot, North Carolina will be a popular pick to win the whole enchilada. While everybody's All-American Davis is the Heels' headliner, coach Hubert Davis was a savvy portal shopper, addressing UNC's 3-point shooting issues (31.2% in 2022-23) by adding sweet-shooting forwards Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan from Stanford and Notre Dame, respectively.
Why they won't advance
Bacot is UNC's career leader in rebounds and double-doubles, but he plays a physical brand of basketball and leads the Heels in fouls committed. Isolate him or put him in pick-and-roll situations on defense to increase the odds he gets into foul difficulty. Because if he's sitting down rather than terrorizing a foe's frontcourt, the chances of ending UNC's season are greatly enhanced.
Did you know?
RJ Davis averaged the most points per game in a season by an ACC player since R.J. Barrett at Duke in 2018-19. He surpassed the 20-point mark 19 times in 31 regular-season games for the Tar Heels.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 9
Résumé rating: 4
NCAA seed list: 4
Joey Brackets says ...
The ACC regular-season champs have the ingredients to be a Final Four team: four double-figure scorers in the starting five; a commitment to sharing the ball and playing D; a propensity to get to the foul line; two ferocious rebounders in Bacot and Ingram; and a proven closer in Davis, the 2024 ACC Player of the Year. What happened in the ACC final was very concerning though. This is the opposite of two years ago, when UNC took out top seed Baylor in the second round. This time, Carolina is Michigan State's victim.
Final field rank: 17
No. 2 Arizona Wildcats
Why they will advance
The Wildcats are loaded. Arizona has wins over Duke, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Alabama, and clinched the final Pac-12 regular-season title before losing the final game at USC. The Wildcats go eight players deep and all five starters are scoring in double figures. They finished the regular season ranked third in points per game, 23rd in 3-point percentage, and 14th in field goal percentage.
Why they won't advance
It's hard to pick apart a team as successful as these Wildcats, but they aren't great at limiting their opponents' offense. They are barely in the top 100 in field goal percentage defense at 42.5% and they're in the 220s in scoring defense at 73.2 points per game allowed. If they run into another high-scoring team, they could struggle to finish them off.
Did you know?
Since their last Final Four (2001), the Wildcats have reached the NCAA tournament 17 times, nine of them as a top-4 seed. They have failed to get out of the first weekend seven times, including last season's 59-55 loss to Princeton in the first round as a No. 2 seed.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 5
Résumé rating: 9
NCAA seed list: 6
Joey Brackets says ...
With a loaded roster, Arizona will not disappoint. And the Wildcats certainly have extra motivation to reach the Final Four in their home state. I believe it will happen, as Arizona plays much closer to its ceiling than the recent floor we've seen. Picking the Wildcats is a gamble, but they have the players.
Final field rank: 3
No. 3 Baylor Bears
Why they will advance
Baylor can keep up with anybody on the offensive end. They boast six players who score in double figures, so they don't have to rely on one player to get hot. They also shoot the ball well, especially from 3-point range, where they led the Big 12 and finished in the top 6 nationally in the regular season.
Why they won't advance
The Bears are a very young team, with two freshmen among their top four scorers. Youth sometimes can be inconsistent, so how the youngsters respond to adversity in the tournament could determine how long they stay. The Bears also don't play good defense for a Scott Drew-coached team. They're near the bottom of the Big 12 in field goal percentage defense, especially from 3-point range.
Did you know?
Baylor will appear in its 16th NCAA tournament, with 12 of them coming in the 21 years Scott Drew has been at the helm. Drew is the all-time winningest coach in Baylor history, both in terms of victories and winning percentage. The Bears were sub-.500 all time before he took over, but he has won more than 63% of his games.
--David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 14
Résumé rating: 7
NCAA seed list: 9
Joey Brackets says ...
Drew has built a perennial contender, and this year is no different. There's plenty of talent on this roster, which could go all the way to Glendale. But there are ultimately too many questions to predict another Final Four run. The Bears knock off Colgate before hitting a wall against red-hot New Mexico.
Final field rank: 19
No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide
Why they will advance
The Crimson Tide are again a fast, potent offensive machine. Alabama leads the nation in scoring (90.8 PPG), is second in offensive efficiency (126.1) and is 11th in adjusted tempo (72.7 possessions per game). It stresses opposing defenses beyond the arc and at the rim, making 36.9% of 3-pointers and 57.5% of 2-pointers. Mark Sears (21.1 PPG) leads the attack.
Why they won't advance
The defense is horrible. The Tide rarely force turnovers, allow 51% on 2-pointers and foul frequently (311th in defensive free-throw rate). Top-tier SEC opponents shredded them down the stretch: Auburn scored 99 points, Kentucky scored 117 and Florida scored 105 as Alabama lost all three games. The defense is rated 100th in KenPom, which is the worst of any power conference team in the field.
Did you know?
This is easily Nate Oats' best offensive team in his five seasons at Alabama, ranking top-30 in 2-point percentage, 3-point percentage, free-throw percentage and offensive rebounding percentage. It launched 47% of its field goal attempts from beyond the arc and made at least 10 3s in 18 games. And it did so against the nation's fourth most difficult schedule, per KenPom.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 13
Résumé rating: 13
NCAA seed list: 16
Joey Brackets says ...
An explosive offense is an asset in March. It wouldn't be surprising if Alabama outscored inferior opponents in the opening two rounds. But the Tide will be in trouble against anyone that can expose their soft defense. The slower pace and stiffer rims of March aren't a good combination for their offense or their chances to remain in the bracket. We think the Tide are a first-round upset victim.
Final field rank: 34
No. 5 Saint Mary's Gaels
Why they will advance
Saint Mary's plays one of the slowest tempos in college basketball, dissecting opposing defenses to find a good shot on every patient possession. The Gaels also add extra possessions by dominating the glass, where they rank in the top five nationally on both ends of the floor and allow opponents the fewest rebounds of any team in college hoops.
Why they won't advance
The Gaels' bench has been shortened by late season injuries. In their previous three games, just six players saw significant minutes with Joshua Jefferson and Harry Wessels sidelined. That leaves them exposed to foul trouble and matchup issues. At their slow pace, a smaller sample size of possessions leaves the door open for issues like that to become fatal.
Did you know?
Junior guard and WCC Player of the Year Augustas Marciulionis is the son of Basketball Hall of Famer Sarunas Marciulionis, who played seven seasons in the NBA and is credited by many as the man who introduced the Eurostep to American basketball. Augustus breaks the move out from time to time but is best known as a passer and is ranked 2nd in the WCC in assists.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 16
Résumé rating: 35
NCAA seed list: 20
Joey Brackets says ...
The Gaels are a regular fixture in the Big Dance at this point, but they have made modest impact in March, only reaching the Sweet 16 once in coach Randy Bennett's nine prior appearances. That changes in 2024. Saint Mary's gave UConn its only real game a year ago, and the Gaels will be in L.A. for the second weekend this time. Look for at least two wins, first against Grand Canyon and then either Alabama or Charleston.
Final field rank: 15
No. 6 Clemson Tigers
Why they will advance
Led by All-ACC center PJ Hall, Clemson wins with a bullying brand of offense. Hall is as crafty inside as a YMCA lifer and is one of two double-double threats in the Tigers' frontcourt -- along with Ian Schieffelin. Employ too much manpower trying to stop its inside scoring and double-digit scoring guards Joseph Girard III and Chase Hunter will make you pay.
Why they won't advance
Normally, Brad Brownell's teams win with a defense-first approach, but this year's edition wins more with offense. Some ACC foes bested it by isolating its two top scorers (Hall, Girard) and attacking on offense -- aiming to get the high-scoring duo in foul trouble. It's an approach opponents will try to replicate in the Big Dance.
Did you know?
Hall is one of just four Division I men's basketball players to average at least 18.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and 1.5 assists per game this season -- joining Purdue's Zach Edey, Dayton's DaRon Holmes II and UNC Asheville's Drew Pember.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 30
Résumé rating: 28
NCAA seed list: 22
Joey Brackets says ...
Clemson is no paper tiger. In Hall, the Tigers have one of the best big men in the college game, while Syracuse transfer Girard III is a deadly 3-point shooter with over 2,000 career points. But the Tigers win with grit, experience and toughness. Will that be enough against New Mexico? We don't think so.
Final field rank: 40
No. 7 Dayton Flyers
Why they will advance
Dayton's offense drips efficiency. The Flyers execute at the 20th-highest clip in the country, and most nights they have the best player on the floor in All-American and Atlantic 10 co-player of the year DaRon Holmes II. Their depth, length and ability to shoot from the outside are a formidable combination.
Why they won't advance
Coach Anthony Grant's team enters the Dance licking its wounds after being upset in the quarterfinals of a wild Atlantic 10 tournament that saw all four top seeds lose on the same day. The Flyers don't look right even after getting point guard Javon Bennett back from injury and their knack for not delivering in big road games in conference play is telling.
Did you know?
Dayton had one of the best squads in the country this time four years ago. The Flyers and consensus national player of the year Obi Toppin ripped through the A-10 en route to an 18-0 conference record and outright regular-season title, only to be denied a trip to the NCAA tournament when it was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 32
Résumé rating: 19
NCAA seed list: 28
Joey Brackets says ...
Dayton usually finds a way to rebound from setbacks in its conference tournament and use them as a shot of B12 for when it matters most. The Flyers will have to shake off losses in three of their last six games, but even Holmes won't be enough against an underseeded Nevada squad.
Final field rank: 42
No. 8 Mississippi State Bulldogs
Why they will advance
The Bulldogs make scoring a chore for opponents, which shouldn't be surprising for anyone who has followed the career of coach Chris Jans. Physical and rugged, Mississippi State is 44th in steal rate (11.4% of possessions) and while opponents attempted 3-pointers at a high rate, they made only 29.6% (6th) of them. State is 25th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Why they won't advance
The defense slipped down the stretch, feeding a four-game losing skid to close the regular season. And the offense, while much improved over last season, isn't aesthetically pleasing or analytically impressive. The Bulldogs are one of the weakest 3-point shooting teams in the field (32.9%), poor on foul shots (327th) and turnover-happy (286th).
Did you know?
Jans is making his fifth NCAA tournament appearance in six years, leading New Mexico State there three times before he arrived in Starkville last season -- highlighted by a victory in 2022's round of 64 for the Aggies. He has now directed the Bulldogs to back-to-back March Madness invitations for the first time since 2009.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 27
Résumé rating: 36
NCAA seed list: 32
Joey Brackets says ...
Offense matters in March, and despite the terrific play of freshman point guard Josh Hubbard (16.8 PPG) and inside production from Tolu Smith (16.3 PPG, 8.2 RPG), it's difficult to see the Bulldogs scoring baskets consistently in an NCAA tournament game. Jans is doing an outstanding job at Mississippi State, but the cowbells will remain silent at the Dance against Tom Izzo and Michigan State.
Final field rank: 44
No. 9 Michigan State Spartans
Why they will advance
Izzone residents have spent this winter bemoaning the Spartans' lack of a prototypical MSU low-post dominator and the team's spotty board work. But the Spartans have a troika of confident double-figure-scoring guards (Tyson Walker, A.J. Hoggard, Jaden Akins), a battle-tested forward in Malik Hall (12.7 PPG) and one of the sport's best sideline maestros in Tom Izzo, so they'll be a tough out.
Why they won't advance
During Izzo's 29 seasons at the helm, the Spartans have won by adhering to the time-tested tenets of "Izzology": intense defense, balanced scoring and an everyone-on-the-glass approach. But the Spartans literally lack a Big Man on Campus in 2023-24. So they've employed a center-by-committee approach -- resulting in subpar interior defense, by MSU standards, and an uncharacteristic national ranking of 265 in rebounds per game.
Did you know?
It has been a bumpy ride in East Lansing. Ranked No. 4 in preseason polls, Michigan State lost its opener to James Madison and stumbled to a 4-5 start. The Spartans then won 13 of 17 contests, only to lose all but one of their final five regular-season games. Michigan State is in its 26th consecutive Big Dance.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 19
Résumé rating: 44
NCAA seed list: 33
Joey Brackets says ...
Guards are golden in March Madness, and the Spartans possess three proven ones: Walker, Hoggard, Akins. Walker in particular is blessed with the clutch shot-making gene. Is this the moment the year's biggest underachiever finally catches fire? Tom Izzo's history suggests we not bet against it. Sparty will be the biggest surprise of the first weekend on the way to the Elite Eight.
Final field rank: 8
No. 10 Nevada Wolf Pack
Why they will advance
The Wolf Pack enter the Big Dance with an affinity for getting to the foul line; they do so at the third highest clip in the nation. The parade to the charity stripe is paced by All-Mountain West second team point guard Kenan Blackshear, who shot 183 free throws. Throw in some of the most efficient offense in the country, and Nevada could be a serious problem.
Why they won't advance
The rotation could run a little thinner depending on the availability of guard Hunter McIntosh. The Elon transfer missed the Mountain West tournament with a sore knee, and his absence was felt in the loss to Colorado State. If he can't come back, the Pack are without a huge spark plug off the bench and one of their top 3-point threats.
Did you know?
Coach Steve Alford has taken each of the five schools where he has coached to at least once NCAA appearance. He owns 11 tourney wins all-time but has never gone further than the Sweet 16. Alford also played for the late Bob Knight and scored more than 2,400 career points at Indiana.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 37
Résumé rating: 26
NCAA seed list: 37
Joey Brackets says ...
The last time the Wolf Pack were seeded in this neighborhood, they lost in the first round, but that's not likely to happen this time around. Stellar guard play wins in March and Blackshear and Oregon State transfer Jarod Lucas will propel the Pack to a win over Dayton before falling to Arizona.
Final field rank: 21
No. 11 New Mexico Lobos
Why they will advance
Fresh off the fifth Mountain West tournament title in school history, the Lobos bring a bullet train of sorts into the first round. Richard Pitino's team plays at the nation's eighth-fastest pace, has four double-figure scorers and defends at the 23rd-most efficient rate in D-I. Scouting this team is literal insomnia for opposing coaches.
Why they won't advance
After an impressive January, it seemed like New Mexico spent most of February and early March reading its own press clippings. The Lobos were mired by inconsistency and dropped three of their last four regular season games, including a home loss at The Pit to an Air Force team that finished just outside the bottom 100 in the KenPom rankings.
Did you know?
The Lobos faithful must feel like they're living in a time machine. Richard Pitino's dad Rick coached lottery pick Jamal Mashburn to a Final Four at Kentucky in 1993, eventually losing to a Fab Five-led Michigan team. Now Mashburn's son Jamal Mashburn Jr. plays for the younger Pitino in Albuquerque and is the Lobos' third leading scorer behind Donovan Dent and Jaelen House -- himself the son of 11-year NBA vet Eddie House.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 29
Résumé rating: 38
NCAA seed list: 42
Joey Brackets says ...
Richard Pitino's squad has the car gassed up and ready for a run to the second weekend. The Lobos finally played up to their potential in the Mountain West tournament, and the shot of adrenaline from the week in Las Vegas should carry over. Pencil the boys from Albuquerque in for the Sweet 16 after wins over Clemson and Baylor.
Final field rank: 16
No. 12 Grand Canyon Lopes
Why they will advance
The two-time defending WAC tournament champions won a school-record 29 games and have all the tools at their disposal for an opening round upset. WAC Player of the Year Tyon Grant-Foster spearheads the nation's 63rd most efficient offense and the Lopes' defense is much improved from a year ago with the addition of one of the nation's most versatile defenders in Collin Moore.
Why they won't advance
Grand Canyon's lack of help off the pine could spell trouble. A physical style of play has seen at least four players in its rotation foul out three or more times. Coach Bryce Drew's roster ranks 293rd in bench minutes and an opponent with more depth could run GCU right back home.
Did you know?
Grant-Foster overcame a pair of heart surgeries and is one of the tournament's feel-good stories. The senior nearly died while playing at DePaul back in 2021 after collapsing at halftime and had to be resuscitated by the Blue Demons' trainer. Drew took a chance most other schools wouldn't, and Grant-Foster responded by becoming a top-40 scorer in Division I.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 46
Résumé rating: 45
NCAA seed list: 47
Joey Brackets says ...
This could have been the year the Lopes got over the hump and pulled an upset. In the modern landscape of NIL and the portal, Drew put together a cohesive roster littered with the right transfers. Grant-Foster draws fouls at the 26th-highest rate in the nation, and he'll be a problem for any defense. Except against Saint Mary's.
Final field rank: 46
No. 13 Charleston Cougars
Why they will advance
The Cougars returned three key pieces from their 2023 CAA championship team in Reyne Smith, Ante Brzovic and Ben Burnham while also adding several talented newcomers. They boast great depth, ranking ninth in the nation in bench points, and will play a 10-man rotation on any given night. This combination of experience and depth served Charleston well in both the regular season and the CAA tournament.
Why they won't advance
Charleston's offense averaged 80.4 PPG and was consistent all season, but its defense has not followed suit. The Cougars rank in the bottom half of the country in scoring defense, allowing 72.3 PPG, and have given up 80 or more points 10 times this season. They will bring their offense to the Dance, but their inability to consistently get stops will most likely be a problem.
Did you know?
Pat Kelsey has won at least a share of the regular-season championship in half of his seasons as a coach. In nine seasons at Winthrop, he won the regular-season title once and tied for first three other times. In his third season at Charleston, he now has an outright regular-season championship to go along with last year's first-place tie.
-- Brendan Farrell
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 53
Résumé rating: 52
NCAA seed list: 54
Joey Brackets says ...
Charleston is coming in with a chip on its shoulder after last year's six-point loss in the round of 64 to eventual national runner-up San Diego State. It has a coach and a core with tournament experience, and it boasts one of the best offenses in the country -- which may come in handy against little-to-no-defense Alabama for what may be the biggest upset of the first round.
Final field rank: 32
No. 14 Colgate Raiders
Why they will advance
The Colgate offense uses motion and ball movement to unlock great scoring chances. Big men Keegan Records and Jeff Woodward operate on the block, shooters dot the perimeter and Patriot League Player of the Year Braeden Smith creates shots for himself and others off the bounce. The Raiders led the conference in shooting percentage both inside and outside the 3-point arc.
Why they won't advance
Colgate has been to each of the past five NCAA tournaments, failing to win a game in all, and this team is a notch below those previous rosters. The Patriot League took a major step back this season, offering Colgate little opposition. In nonconference play, it was clearer that the Raiders lacked the scoring pop of previous years.
Did you know?
Braeden Smith earned CPOY honors, but he might not even be the best player with his name in this tournament, dueling with Purdue's Braden Smith (note the spelling difference). Believe it or not, both Smiths are 6-foot, 180 pound, sophomore point guards averaging 13 points, 6 assists and 2 steals per game, ranking 14th and 15th nationally, respectively, in assist rate.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 58
Résumé rating: 58
NCAA seed list: 58
Joey Brackets says ...
Colgate has had its chances over the past six years, staying within single digits in upset bids against Wisconsin in 2022 and Tennessee in 2019. This roster isn't cut out to hang with the big boys. The Raiders below the rim attack will struggle against the size and speed of Baylor.
Final field rank: 55
No. 15 Long Beach State Beach
Why they will advance
Long Beach State has a high-powered, balanced offense. The Beach average 77.7 points per game and have five players who average double digits. Led by senior guard Marcus Tsohonis, who averages just over 17 points per game, and backcourt mate Jadon Jones, who averages over 12 per game, the Beach can score points in a hurry.
Why they won't advance
Long Beach did not exactly dominate its schedule. It finished tied for fifth in the Big West with a league record of 10-10. It hasn't played consistently well all season until winning three in a row to claim the Big West tournament crown. While it does have three Quad 2 wins, it also has six Quad 4 losses.
Did you know?
This is Long Beach State's 10th NCAA tournament appearance in school history, with the last one coming in 2012. From 1970 to 1973, the Beach made the tournament four consecutive years, reaching the Sweet 16 twice and the Elite Eight twice. Those teams were led by Ed Ratleff, who went on to be the sixth pick in the NBA draft in 1973.
-- Brendan Farrell
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 62
Résumé rating: 60
NCAA seed list: 59
Joey Brackets says ...
Long Beach has two formidable guards who can put a scare into any team in the tournament. However, their body of work does not suggest they can go on a run. Coach Dan Monson has plenty of tournament experience and will have his guys ready to play, but it will be tough for the Beach against Arizona's loaded lineup.
Final field rank: 57
No. 16 Howard Bison
Why they will advance
Howard takes and makes more 3s than most teams in the country. The Bison rank 30th in 3s attempted per game at 22.9 and rank 17th in 3-point percentage at 37.5%. Marcus Dockery ranks 22nd individually in 3-point percentage and is a threat at any time. If they can keep knocking down 3s, they've got a puncher's chance.
Why they won't advance
Howard is simply undersized. The Bison do not play a single player taller than 6-9. Their leading rebounder is Bryce Harris, who averages 7.6 rebounds per game, at just 6-4. They also rank 167th in rebounds per game. It will be box out or be out for the Bison.
Did you know?
This is the first time in school history Howard has made back-to-back NCAA tournament appearances. Prior to last season, the Bison had not danced since 1992. Now, they've won the MEAC tournament for the second year in a row and head back to the tournament.
-- Brendan Farrell
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 66
Résumé rating: 66
NCAA seed list: 67
Joey Brackets says ...
It's not impossible for Howard to win a game beyond the First Four, but it is certainly improbable. Howard had a solid nonconference schedule but wasn't great in MEAC play, losing five times. It also made a great run in the MEAC tournament, but beating North Carolina in Charlotte, if the Bison get there? I don't think so.
Final field rank: 66
No. 16 Wagner Seahawks
Why they will advance
Wagner's defense packs a punch, switching between a rangy zone and disruptive man-to-man. The Seahawks made life especially tough for opposing shooters, who collectively hit just 29.8% from deep. Some of that percentage is luck, but over a 31-game sample, Wagner constantly put pressure on the perimeter and prevented open jumpers.
Why they won't advance
Wagner's offense really lacks the pop to compete against elite competition. The Seahawks scored only 63.5 points per game, 354th in the nation. Some of that is due to a slow pace, but a lot more is due to the sixth-worst field goal percentage in the country. Sputtering offense was the main reason the Seahawks were under .500 in NEC play.
Did you know?
Coach Donald Copeland is not new to March Madness. He was a bench contributor for the 2004 Seton Hall team that beat Arizona before being dispatched by JJ Redick's Duke Blue Devils. He was then a second-team All-Big East guard his senior year, leading the Pirates to the 2006 NCAA tournament, where he had 17 points and 5 assists in a first-round loss.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 68
Résumé rating: 68
NCAA seed list: 68
Joey Brackets says ...
Wagner's pesky defense could make for a fun few minutes in the First Four (or later), but without a miracle-level shooting night, it can't hang with a top-level team. Still, Copeland and his team should be proud of the school's first tourney bid in nearly two decades.
Final field rank: 68