Ready to pick some upsets?
Now that we have a bracket for the 2024 men's tournament, you're trying to spot that 12-5 upset everyone says is going to happen. If you're like us, you'd also feel more comfortable with some numbers to support your hunches.
Giant Killers is here to help. Back for a remarkable 18th consecutive NCAA tournament, Giant Killers is our probabilistic forecast for March upsets.
You can read up on the details if you wish, but the idea itself is straightforward. Giant Killers starts with a base probability of an upset from ESPN's College Basketball Power Index and adds the strengths, weaknesses and styles of both teams in a given matchup. Then, your humble co-writers add the human element, make a slight adjustment or two and come up with the 10 best upset opportunities.
As it has done from the start, Giant Killers considers only games with at least a five-seed differential. So, for example, picking a No. 11 seed over a No. 6 in the first round is fair game.
We all know that upsets will happen. Our model is here to try to spot them in advance.
Here are Giant Killers' 10 most likely upsets of the first round.
1. No. 11 New Mexico Lobos vs. No. 6 Clemson Tigers
Yes, we heartily agree with other laptops, Vegas, social media and that know-it-all relative. This looks like a game where the Lobos are straight-up favorites. UNM's Jamal Mashburn Jr. and Jaelen House form arguably one of the better backcourts in the entire field. The committee might view this bid as having been "stolen" by New Mexico, but Richard Pitino's group is quite capable of advancing.
2. No. 11 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 6 South Carolina Gamecocks
Dana Altman and Oregon peaking in March is a thing. We've seen the Ducks steal a bid a few times now, and they are unbeaten in the first round under Altman, including a pair of double-digit wins as a 12-seed. South Carolina has been one of the feel-good stories of the season, but in a toss-up game, having the best player on the court doesn't hurt. Oregon has that in 6-foot-11 N'Faly Dante, who happens to be playing his best basketball right now.
3. No. 12 James Madison Dukes vs. No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers
James Madison and UConn are the nation's two winningest teams, meaning the Dukes aren't your ordinary double-digit seed from the Sun Belt. At 6-foot-9, T.J. Bickerstaff is an outstanding scorer in the paint, one who records 79% of his shot attempts at the rim. After knocking off Michigan State in East Lansing on the opening night of the season, JMU will be ready for its next Big Ten opponent.
4. No. 12 Grand Canyon Lopes vs. No. 5 Saint Mary's Gaels
The Gaels have lost just once since Christmas, but the 29-win Lopes are no slouch, either. GCU is fourth in the nation in free throws made per game, which is something to keep an eye on. Saint Mary's depth is also compromised due to the season-ending injury to Joshua Jefferson. The matchups are intriguing in this one. If styles make fights, Grand Canyon certainly has a puncher's chance, led by the versatile Tyon Grant-Foster.
5. No. 12 UAB Blazers vs. No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs
Apparently, the Giant Killers model really likes these so-called bid thieves everyone's talking about in 2024. UAB snatched the American's automatic bid behind an impressive display of offense. With Alejandro Vasquez hitting 3s and Eric Gaines distributing the ball, Andy Kennedy's team overpowered Wichita State, South Florida and Temple. Now it will try to do the same against the vaunted San Diego State defense. That won't be easy, but the model thinks the Blazers have a 1-in-4 chance.
6. No. 12 McNeese Cowboys vs. No. 5 Gonzaga Bulldogs
Gonzaga has won 14 straight first-round games, so history isn't on McNeese's side. The Zags are also humming on offense, shooting 54% from the field and nearly 40% on 3s during the past two months. So how did the Cowboys make the cut for this column, you ask? They come at you in waves -- nine players average at least 13 minutes per game -- led by dynamic guard Shahada Wells. Not only do they take care of the ball, they are second in the nation in points off turnovers.
7. No. 11 NC State Wolfpack vs. No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech hits its 3s, takes care of the ball and seldom puts opponents on the line. Those last two strong points aren't deal-breakers for NC State, which doesn't rely too heavily on takeaways or free throws. What the Wolfpack do emphasize is the scoring of DJ Horne and DJ Burns Jr., along with the on-ball defense of Casey Morsell. To be sure, the Red Raiders are a clear favorite. Then again, so was North Carolina in the ACC title game.
8. No. 13 Samford Bulldogs vs. No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks
Now we're getting adventurous. A great many things would have to go right for the Bulldogs to pull off the upset. Achor Achor would have to equal Hunter Dickinson in terms of inside-outside skills as a 5-man. (Here's wishing Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr. a speedy return from the injured list.) Bucky McMillan's team would need the 3s to fall for Rylan Jones and Jaden Campbell. Don't build your bracket on Samford, but maybe glance at this as an upset possibility.
9. No. 11 Duquesne Dukes vs. No. 6 BYU Cougars
For a 6-11 game, the model doesn't exactly love the Dukes in this one. It's understandable, though, as Duquesne will have to muck it up in order to slow down a big, physical BYU attack. Keeping the game in the 60s will be a must -- the Cougars are 1-6 when scoring fewer than 70 points -- and Duquesne will need big games from the backcourt of Dae Dae Grant and Jimmy Clark III.
10. No. 14 Morehead State Eagles vs. No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini
It's YOLO time here. The model likes a couple of other 14-seeds more (Oakland and Colgate), but there are reasons to believe Preston Spradlin's Eagles can slay the Illini. OVC Player of the Year Riley Minix (20.8 PPG, 9.8 RPG) is crafty around the rim but also has 40 3-pointers to his credit. Morehead's guards play with the edge that is necessary to hang with Illinois' talented duo of Terrence Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask.