The best weekend of the men's college basketball regular season -- maybe the best weekend of the past several regular seasons -- is upon us, with four matchups between top-10 teams highlighting the schedule.
No. 4 Houston travels to No. 8 Kansas in the biggest test of the Cougars' young Big 12 career (Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, ESPN); No. 7 Duke takes the short drive to No. 3 North Carolina for the 49th top-10 meeting between the two teams (Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN); No. 5 Tennessee is in a bounce-back situation at No. 10 Kentucky (Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN); and No. 6 Wisconsin looks for a marquee win when it hosts No. 2 Purdue (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS).
(If only the Big East could have scheduled one of the two meetings between No. 1 UConn and No. 9 Marquette for this weekend!)
Interestingly enough, the schedule calls for rematches of all four of these games on the final weekend of the regular season -- though the teams might not all be in the top 10 by that point. So, this weekend gets the edge as "the best college basketball weekend ever" for now.
This weekend also means the top of the AP poll will look very different come Monday, depending on the outcomes of these four games. So where will each of these games be won? Which teams have the advantage at either end of the floor? We reached out to opposing coaches who have played each team to break down the keys to the games.
No. 4 Houston Cougars at No. 8 Kansas Jayhawks
Houston's biggest edge: While the Cougars' defense gets most of the credit for their consistent success in recent years, opposing coaches pointed to their offensive rebounding as potentially the biggest factor on Saturday. They rank No. 6 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage -- and No. 1 in Big 12 play -- and they've ranked in the top five in that category in each of the past four years.
On the other side, Kansas ranks in the middle of the league in defensive rebounding and really struggled on the glass against West Virginia and Cincinnati.
"[Houston's] rebounding is relentless. It cannot be simulated," one coach said. "It happens so fast. They're trying to make the shot obviously, but their best offense is sometimes, 'just throw the ball up there and go get it.'
"You can say whatever you want, box out, be physical, anticipate, but it's unmatched. There are other teams that do it, but it's the physicality of how it happens. They're so physical on offense. They wear you down. They've got big bodies and everyone besides [L.J.] Cryer is going in there and crashing relentlessly. Multiple efforts, swim moves -- it just becomes hard to sustain being able to keep them off the glass."
Of course, we'd be remiss if we didn't talk about Houston's defense, which is tracking to be one of the best defenses since 1999, according to KenPom. Texas was the first team all season to score 70 points against Kelvin Sampson's team -- and needed overtime to get there. The Cougars rank first nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage defense, 2-point percentage defense and block percentage, while also finding spots in the top 10 in turnover percentage and 3-point defense.
"[Jamal] Shead at the point of it, he controls the whole tempo of the game," a Big 12 coach said. "They do a great job of disrupting you in the scoring areas, pushing you off one more spot, contesting all shots. They do a good job on the defensive rebounding end. There's not a lot of second shots against them. You watch them, Iowa State-Houston was like a football game. They do a great job of being physical. They disrupt you with their physicality."
Johnny Furphy drains the long 3-pointer from the top of the arc late in the second half vs. Cincinnati.
Kansas' biggest edge: When the Jayhawks play at home, it's obvious: The home-court advantage. It's arguably the best in the country, and Kansas hasn't lost at Allen Fieldhouse all season.
"If you're not up by double figures with two minutes to go, a minute and a half to go, you're going to lose," an opposing coach said. "They find a way. They make a shot, someone makes a right-hand drive, [Bill Self] draws up a play to get a 3. Teams have played close games there, had leads with a couple minutes left. You start thinking, 'We got this one.' No you don't. It's just something they do."
The emergence of Johnny Furphy over the past few weeks has eliminated one of Kansas' weaknesses, which was a lack of a consistent player outside its big four veterans. The freshman from Australia has started the past six games and scored in double figures every time he has played 20 or more minutes this season. He's averaging 15.4 points, 7.4 rebounds and shooting 43.9% from 3 in his past five games.
"He's every bit of 6-foot-8 if not taller, he's athletic vertically and he makes shots," a coach said. "He spaces the floor. He changes things, it's different from when they had [Elmarko] Jackson in the lineup. It changes everything. It gives [Hunter] Dickinson more space, they're going to be able to run their lob play, get easy touches, Furphy is on the backside. He allows them to space the floor and he's a threat in transition."
L.J. Cryer soars to come up with a big-time block for Houston.
Where the game will be won: There are two huge keys to Saturday's game. First, the availability of Kevin McCullar Jr. The versatile senior is enjoying a true breakout campaign, averaging 19.8 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.7 assists, but he missed Kansas' win over Oklahoma State on Tuesday with a bone bruise. Self said after the game his status for Saturday was unclear.
"His jump shot has improved. He was at 40% from 3 for most of the season. Him being able to knock down that shot consistently, it changes how you have to guard them," one coach said. "He's taken his game to another level. Running off screens, running misdirections. Lob play, back-cut play."
But even more important to watch might be the aforementioned rebounding battle at Kansas' defensive end of the floor. While Houston can be dominant at that aspect of its game, the Jayhawks' ability to grab defensive rebounds and get out in transition has been a huge part of their offensive success for much of Self's tenure. If Houston can get second-chance opportunities, advantage Cougars. If Kansas can hold its own on the glass and push the ball against an unsettled Houston defense, advantage Jayhawks.
According to CBB Analytics, Kansas ranks third in the league in fast-break points per game, while Houston is first in limiting fast-break points.
"You can make an emphasis to go to the glass on Kansas. The thing with them, though, is you have to go and get it, because if they get it, it's going down your throat," one coach said. "You have to be judicious in how you go about it. Houston will do what they do. But Kansas' transition offense is elite. It's hard to simulate their transition. Can they hold Houston to one shot?"
No. 7 Duke Blue Devils at No. 3 North Carolina Tar Heels
Jared McCain drills a 3 to extend the Blue Devils' lead.
Duke's biggest edge: The most intriguing stylistic battle on Saturday will be between Duke's 3-point shooting and North Carolina's 3-point shooting defense. The Blue Devils rank first in the ACC in 3-point shooting in league play, making better than 40% of their outside jumpers, while Carolina is first in the league in 3-point percentage defense, limiting ACC opponents to below 27% from behind the arc.
"Duke is the better shooting team," an ACC coach said. "North Carolina has to limit Duke's transition 3s and force them to play in the half court. That's where they'll have a better chance of guarding them. Those broken plays, where the court is unbalanced, that's where they get their 3s, transition 3s. They typically have four guys on the court that can really, really shoot it, around 40% or higher. Their perimeter as a collective is just a better shooting group."
Duke appears to be fully healthy entering the game, which is good news considering Jeremy Roach, Tyrese Proctor and Mark Mitchell have all missed time at various points this season. Proctor, in particular, has really begun to hit his stride after missing three games with a sprained ankle. He's averaging 16.4 points and shooting 48.4% from 3 over the past five games.
"I think [Jared] McCain is the best shooter in the ACC," one coach said. "If he shoots it, it's going in. Roach is shooting it at a high clip when he's open. Proctor is good for them because he's balancing the decision-making; now he's hitting shots, he's adding something as a scorer."
Mitchell was the focal point of opposing scouting reports earlier this season, as Arizona, Arkansas and Georgia Tech all essentially left him alone on the offensive end and let him shoot, while focusing on the other four players on the floor. It worked to different extents for all three teams. But the 6-9 forward has been playing better over the past six weeks, including putting up three 20-point performances in ACC play.
"If you really look at Duke's team, they don't really have any wings," one coach said. "Mitchell is the biggest, best athlete. When he uses his athleticism at both ends of the floor, slashing, cutting, driving to the rim, he gives them that dimension they don't really have otherwise. People try to force him to be a shooter, but he's found a way to impact the game with slashing, scoring around the basket, finishing around the basket."
UNC's R.J. Davis shows off his dribble moves and gets an impressive bucket to fall.
North Carolina's biggest edge: Before their surprising loss on Tuesday at Georgia Tech, the Tar Heels had been one of the hottest teams in the country. And the two keys to Carolina's midseason surge were the Tar Heels' defense and RJ Davis' breakout season.
They've been the best defense in the ACC since the start of league play, holding each of their past 11 opponents to fewer than 1.01 points per possession. According to BartTorvik.com, Carolina ranks No. 2 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency since the mid-December loss to Kentucky, stifling opponents inside and outside the arc and dominating the glass.
"They've settled defensively. Physically, they can hold matchups. [Armando] Bacot drops. They keep everything in front of them," one ACC coach said. "[Harrison] Ingram is one of the best rebounding 4s in the country and [Cormac] Ryan is bigger than you realize. Mondo is a great rebounder. Then the guys coming off the bench are physical and active. [Jalen] Washington, [Seth] Trimble. They just have a good physical profile. Everyone talks about the ball pressure and transition offense, but I feel like they haven't revved up the ball pressure. It's just 5-on-5 in the half court, limiting rotations, guarding their matchups one-on-one."
As for Davis, after taking a backseat to Caleb Love and Bacot for much of his college career, he's playing like the best guard in college basketball. The 6-foot senior is averaging 21.5 points and 3.3 assists, shooting better than 40% from 3-point range. He has been on a tear recently, scoring 36 points last week against Wake Forest and following that up with 24 against Florida State and 28 in the loss to Georgia Tech. Davis has scored 20 or more in 12 of the past 16 games.
"He has a great balance of always being ready to be in attack mode, while also letting the game come to him," an opposing coach said. "He's a guy that gets loose in transition, he's super aggressive. He's able to pick his spots in the half court. Coming off screens, changing speeds off handoffs or pick-and-rolls. He can shoot off a live dribble, which is a game-changer for guards. He's seen everything now. He knows when to be aggressive, knows when to pick his spots."
Dalton Knecht nails the triple vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Where the game will be won: The transition game. While opposing coaches like to point out how effective Duke is in transition -- and the Blue Devils are better when their guards can get out and play in space -- it's actually North Carolina that is the better fast-break team. The Tar Heels are also the ACC's best team at preventing fast-break points.
If the game settles into a half-court affair, Carolina has the edge.
"Carolina has a little more diversity in the way they can score in the half court," an ACC coach said. "Davis is playing like a first-team All-American, Ingram is really good, they've got Ryan. Ingram and Ryan, those guys for me, you talk about experience. Outside of Elliot Cadeau, everyone in their lineup has four or five years of college. Bacot isn't the focus of the team anymore, but he's one of the best complementary pieces you can have in the country. The fact they can spread the floor with shooting, with Cadeau or Davis in the pick-and-roll, they have a good mix of driving and scoring, playing in the midrange, Mondo in the post."
If it becomes a 3-point shooting battle, that's where Duke will have the edge. The Tar Heels have really done a good job of guarding the perimeter, but both Florida State and Georgia Tech made nine 3s and shot 45% from 3-point range in the past two games against Carolina, while Kentucky and UConn made a combined 18 3s in UNC's two December losses.
"Duke has got to make 3s. They got to get out in transition and make 3s," one coach said. "Can they keep the rebounding battle manageable? Can they keep Carolina off the foul line? They have to limit turnovers, so Carolina isn't in transition, and they have to make it tough for Davis. To me, Carolina is the better team. I don't know if Duke is big enough on the wings or has enough overall athleticism."
No. 5 Tennessee Volunteers at No. 10 Kentucky Wildcats
Jonas Aidoo elevates for the big-time swat
Tennessee's biggest edge: Against a roster featuring five top-25 freshmen and a potential All-American in Antonio Reeves, it's Tennessee that has the best player on the floor in Dalton Knecht. The Northern Colorado transfer has been the best player out of the portal this season, averaging 20.1 points and shooting 40% from 3. Before Tuesday night, Knecht was averaging 32.0 points in his previous four games. Then he went out and scored 31 points in the loss to South Carolina, single-handedly keeping the Volunteers in the game by scoring their final 13 points.
"They have the best player on the court," an SEC coach said. "I don't know who Kentucky will guard him with. Maybe Reeves, but he's not a stopper. Knecht is a three-level scorer, puts every ball in. He has size, length, he can dribble, he can get to his spots. The SEC has not found a way to stop him yet. I thought it would be forcing him left and making him operate with his left as much as possible, but it doesn't work. And you can't give him any space, he has the ability to elevate and get a shot. If you think you're guarding him, you're not. It's three points and it's backbreaking."
Tennessee should be able to get to the rim, and not just Knecht. Zakai Zeigler is one of the quickest point guards in the country, and his ability to beat his man and create off the bounce should be an asset against Kentucky's backcourt. He had a six-game stretch earlier this season where he averaged 18.5 points and 6.5 assists, but he needs to return to form after an inconsistent couple of weeks.
While the Wildcats are elite offensively, they're susceptible at the other end. They're just eighth in SEC play in defensive efficiency, struggling to force turnovers and allowing teams open looks from the perimeter. The Wildcats have given up at least 85 points four times in eight SEC games.
"They don't stay in front of the ball," another league coach said. "Georgia's guards got downhill, and they're not Auburn's guards or Tennessee's guards. They don't really guard you. It will be interesting to see how they improve defensively."
Harrison Ingram comes up with a massive stuff on Jamir Watkins to preserve the late lead for UNC.
Kentucky's biggest edge: John Calipari has let his team loose this season. After Kentucky averaged around 65-68 possessions per game for most of his time in Lexington, the Wildcats are up at 73 possessions per game, playing the 12th-fastest tempo in the country entering Wednesday. He has fantastic guards who love to push the ball with pace in Rob Dillingham, D.J. Wagner and Reed Sheppard, and he's simply letting them play.
CBB Analytics has Kentucky averaging 15.68 fast-break points per game, fourth most among the top six conferences.
"Their biggest advantage is transition offense. They're elite in transition, arguably the best I've ever seen at getting the ball up ahead in transition," one coach said. "Outlet passes, multiple guys pushing it, multiple guys bringing it. Sheppard is an elite throw-ahead passer, [Tre] Mitchell rebounds it and starts the break. And then Mitchell is often in the trail spot and that's a hell of a weapon to have in the trail. He's a ridiculous passer. Elbow-point catches and five-out stuff, he's a ridiculous passer."
For a team filled with freshmen -- and that plays at this pace -- the Wildcats share the ball very effectively. Dillingham, Wagner and Sheppard all have assist rates above 20%, and four different players are averaging more than three assists per game. Coaches in the league have been impressed by the young roster's maturity and development.
"Sheppard doesn't play like a freshman. Dillingham is up and down, but he makes them go," one coach said. "You don't know if he's going to score six or 36. But he can be that dude. Someone Cal hasn't had in a while. He can play iso ball and make a play. And Wagner is getting better. Kentucky doesn't miss with their passes. When those dudes are open, the ball is in their shooting pocket."
Zach Edey gets possession of the ball and dunks one with authority for Purdue.
Where the game will be won: Personnel will play a role -- both Wagner and Justin Edwards missed Wednesday's loss to Florida and it's unclear whether they will be available this weekend. But it will likely come down to whether Kentucky can get out in transition and create offense against an unsettled defense. The Volunteers have the second-best adjusted defensive efficiency in the country this season, but they're eighth in the SEC in fast break points allowed per game, according to CBB Analytics.
When Kentucky lost to South Carolina, much of that stemmed from the Gamecocks controlling the tempo and making the Wildcats play in a half-court setting.
"Tennessee's defensive transition game has been good, but they haven't seen a team that runs like Kentucky," one coach said. "But one little bit of a flaw for Kentucky is when adversity strikes, they can get a little one-on-one iso ball, one-on-one happy. Iso-centric offensively."
Aside from the fascinating perimeter battle between Knecht and Kentucky's plethora of scorers and shooters in the backcourt, one coach pointed out Jonas Aidoo could be an X factor for Tennessee. Aidoo was fantastic to start SEC play, averaging 16.2 points and 8.8 rebounds in the first five games, but he shot just 2-for-8 for six points in the loss to South Carolina.
How he deals with Kentucky's trio of Aaron Bradshaw, Ugonna Onyenso and Zvonimir Ivisic -- and Mitchell when the Wildcats go small -- will be interesting.
"Aidoo is awesome, but he has to be the best big on the floor, the best interior big," the coach said. "Can he dominate?"
No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers at No. 6 Wisconsin Badgers
Purdue's biggest edge: It's quite literally the biggest edge for the Boilermakers: 7-foot-4 reigning Wooden Award winner Zach Edey. He's arguably been even more dominant than he was last season, averaging 23.0 points, 11.4 rebounds and 2.3 blocks while shooting nearly 63% from the floor. He had a three-game stretch in mid-January where he averaged 31.0 points and 17.3 rebounds, including a 30-point, 20-rebound performance against Penn State.
Edey has generally had plenty of success against Wisconsin, despite Purdue being 2-2 against the Badgers in his career. He had a season-high 21 points against them as a freshman, averaged 20.5 points and 9.5 rebounds in their two games as a sophomore and then had 17 points and 19 boards in last season's showdown.
"When you have Zach Edey, you have the most dominant player in college basketball," one opposing coach said. "They put the defensive scheme on the ropes right away. For as good and solid as the Wisconsin bigs are, you can't play one-on-one against Zach Edey. It's just too hard. So I'm curious what they do there. Obviously they'll have a plan to double."
It's a game-long battle, too. One coach pointed out Edey missed a couple of baskets early against Rutgers and also had two first-half turnovers. But when the Scarlet Knights made their big second-half runs, it was generally always Edey who had the answer. The lead got down to three; Edey made two free throws. The lead got down to two; Edey had a dunk and a free throw and scored five straight points.
"At the end, he dominated," the coach said. "Wisconsin's challenge is going to be avoiding the big Zach Edey plays."
Wisconsin's biggest edge: Despite the Badgers' much-improved offense -- which we'll get to in a minute -- their pace isn't much faster than that of the past few years. Entering Wednesday, they ranked No. 327 at KenPom in adjusted tempo, and they're last in Big Ten play in both possessions per game and average possession length on the offensive end.
Purdue isn't exactly a run-and-gun offense, but the Boilermakers are middle of the pack in Big Ten play in most possession statistics, and opposing coaches have pointed out all season they're looking to get out in transition more than last season.
"I think Wisconsin can control the pace of the game and I think their pace can bother Purdue," one coach said. "If Purdue misses a couple shots, misses a couple 3s and Wisconsin can score and take a lead, trying to come back against Wisconsin, at their pace, it's difficult."
Wisconsin's offense is the best it's had since Greg Gard took over in Madison back in 2015, and the best since the Badgers reached the national title game in 2015. It ranks in the top five nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom, and is No. 1 in Big Ten play in points per possession, effective field goal percentage, 2-point percentage, free throw percentage -- and third in 3-point percentage at 41.1%. Purdue, which has had an elite offense for the better part of a decade, is just behind Wisconsin in offensive efficiency in league play entering Wednesday night.
The Badgers are still deliberate at that end of the floor, but the additions of St. John's transfer AJ Storr and freshman John Blackwell have provided more pop than they've had in the past.
"They all really know what's expected of them. They know their spots, they know what they're supposed to do and how they can help their offense. The roles are clear and defined," one coach said. "And the two guys -- Storr and Blackwell -- they didn't have last year make them a little different. Those two guys can take you one-on-one, they can make plays. They can push it in transition. And as a team, they post up so much. How many teams work on post-up defense? Especially with their 2s and 3s?"
Where the game will be won: How much Edey dictates the game at both ends of the floor. Is he poised to control the paint, putting forth one of his 30-point, 15-rebound games? Or can the Badgers slow him down and make other players beat them?
"If Purdue is playing, I'm always picking Purdue," one coach said. "It's Edey, they're well-coached, they can always find their way of playing and they beat good opponents. They have the biggest, most impactful player every time they're on the floor."
But it's not just Edey. One needs only to look at Purdue's loss to Northwestern in early December, when Edey scored 35 points on 17 shots, to know the Boilermakers don't just go as Edey goes.
"Can Wisconsin contain him? But also, if they get it out of his hands, where do they direct the other shots?" one coach said. "Is it Fletcher Loyer and [Braden] Smith, and they're making a bunch of shots? Is it Mason Gillis? He shot like 10 3s in the loss against Nebraska. He's obviously a good shooter, shooting 50% from 3, but you'd rather him taking those shots than Loyer and Smith. You'll live with that if you're Wisconsin."
At the other end, can Wisconsin put Edey in difficult situations? Can 7-footer Steven Crowl step away from the rim and be a threat from 3-point range? He's shooting fewer 3s than the past two seasons, but he's still a career 34% 3-point shooter.
"He's been one of the most solid bigs in the league," a coach said. "He can pop and get Edey out of the paint."