These are the best of college basketball times if you like scoring in the men's game. A glance at KenPom shows that Division I's efficiency on offense is higher than it has ever been to this point in a season since at least 1999.
And give the credit to shot volume. After all, we've seen D-I shoot just as accurately (last year) or even a hair better (in the late teens) than what we're witnessing now.
The efficiency that today's teams are achieving is also a result of the sheer frequency with which they're attempting shots. Indeed, shot volume in D-I is at an all-time KenPom high. Thanks primarily to a declining turnover rate, one might call 2024 the golden age of shot volume.
This volume can be measured with an item we like to call a shot volume index. Our index pegs the number of attempts from the field that a team would record in 100 possessions of (rather improbably) zero-free-throw basketball. For simplicity, we'll look at 80 major-conference teams here.
Let's give it up for this season's "most likely to record a scoring attempt" honor roll.
Shot volume's 2024 'big four' in major-conference play
1. Texas A&M Aggies
Shot volume index: 105.7
Yes, Texas A&M. However inadvertently, the Aggies are conducting a fascinating basketball experiment in 2024. Just how important is shot volume, really, when you aren't connecting on shots?
Merely saying that A&M ranks last in SEC play for effective field goal percentage (39.0%) fails to capture the magnitude of the situation. If in fact Buzz Williams' group does finish the regular season connecting on just 40% of its 2s and 26% of its 3s, this will constitute the worst shooting we've seen from any offense in major-conference play in the KenPom era.
Bear in mind A&M's defense is good, but not necessarily phenomenal (No. 4 in the league). Seen in this light, this team's status as a projected No. 9 seed or so is remarkable. With wins over the likes of Iowa State and Kentucky on their profile, the Aggies can chalk up the lion's share of their success to a truly amazing level of shot volume.
2. Houston Cougars
Shot volume index: 104.0
Kelvin Sampson has been doing this shot volume thing for a very long time. His teams are famous for attacking the offensive glass, and this season is no exception.
What's new at UH for 2023-24, however, is the lowest turnover rate of the Sampson era. Thus far in Big 12 play, Iowa State has been the only opponent able to force the Cougars to lose their grip on the ball. The Cyclones needed just about every one of their opponent's 16 turnovers to post a four-point victory over Houston in Ames. Other than that loss, however, the Cougars have shown turnover rates between 8% and 14% in every Big 12 outing.
3. Florida Gators
Shot volume index: 103.1
Rather quietly, the Gators are posting an even higher offensive rebound percentage in SEC play (39.8%) than what we're seeing from, say, Purdue against Big Ten opponents (38.6%). Head coach Todd Golden is no stranger to such numbers, having emphasized sheer volume and strong defense when his San Francisco teams were competing against the consistently stellar shooting accuracy of Gonzaga back in the day.
4. Illinois Fighting Illini
Shot volume index: 103.0
Brad Underwood's team works hard to get the most out of shooting that thus far in conference play has clocked in a hair below the Big Ten average for accuracy. A pretty good turnover rate combined with excellent results on the offensive glass have given Illinois more opportunities to score.
Other shot volumes of note
Fletcher Loyer's 3-pointer puts Purdue up 24 on Michigan right before halftime.
9. Purdue Boilermakers
Shot volume index: 101.0
Even a small reduction in turnovers yields sizable benefits when you have Zach Edey. Purdue still gives the ball away at a higher rate than the Big Ten average, but that rate has dropped since last season. Plus this season the Boilermakers are hitting 40% of their 3s against conference opponents. Facing this offense is no easy task.
10. Arizona Wildcats
Shot volume index: 100.9
Arizona is, in effect, the only Pac-12 team emphasizing second chances, which has paid significant dividends for the Wildcats. Tommy Lloyd's team gets another shot on 37% of its misses in a league where the second-place team on the offensive boards (UCLA) pulls down the rebound just 29% of the time.
13. North Carolina Tar Heels
Shot volume index: 100.3
North Carolina was a perennial shot-volume juggernaut throughout the Roy Williams years. Now Hubert Davis is continuing the same tradition: UNC has been far and away the ACC's best offense when it comes to securing second chances to score.
16. UConn Huskies
Shot volume index: 99.5
By the time we're down to No. 16 in these rankings, the shot volume qualifies as "quite good" rather than "outstanding." Still, the Huskies merit notice here. The accuracy exhibited by Dan Hurley's team in Big East play really has been outstanding. Pair that with good volume, and you have a reigning national champion that looks like it could repeat.
67. Alabama Crimson Tide
Shot volume index: 94.0
The Crimson Tide have spent 2023-24 ranking No. 1 nationally, or very close to it, for adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom. Yet, as indicated by this ranking (out of 80 major-conference teams), Alabama's high turnover rate has translated into a level of shot volume that's been far below average in SEC play. If, however, the Tide ever improve to the point where they play opponents at or near turnover parity, Nate Oats has a team that could win a national title.
80. Kansas State Wildcats
Shot volume index: 88.9
It's rare to see a potential NCAA tournament team show up in last place in these major-conference rankings for shot volume. Yet here we are. Kansas State's been a familiar presence at or near the cut line in Joe Lunardi's Bracketology these last few weeks. The Wildcats are within range of a bid despite having recorded the worst turnover rate (23%) of any team in major-conference play.