With Wednesday marking exactly two months until Selection Sunday, we're getting to the point in the season where preseason expectations are removed from a team's evaluation. No longer can we simply expect teams that were hyped before or in the early parts of the season to "figure it out." At some point, they are who they are and dramatic improvements are unlikely to happen.
Take the 10 teams that were ranked in the preseason AP poll that are currently unranked in this week's edition. Among those are San Diego State and Villanova, a pair still comfortably in the NCAA tournament, and Saint Mary's, which has won 10 of its past 11 and could be the West Coast Conference favorite. Removing those three, we're left with Michigan State, Gonzaga, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Miami, Texas and USC. Let's also throw in UCLA, which was just on the outside looking in in the preseason. And none of these eight were even close to being ranked this week.
Are any of these eight underperforming teams poised to turn things around? Which ones should already start planning their offseason roster overhauls? We reached out to opposing coaches and dug into the numbers to get a quick rundown on what's gone wrong with these teams and how, or if, they might be able to improve.
Michigan State Spartans (10-7)
AP preseason ranking: 4
Current ranking: Unranked (0 votes)
What's gone wrong?
A potential Final Four team entering 2023-24, the Spartans haven't been able to generate consistent momentum through the first half of the season. They lost at home to James Madison in their opener and have been up and down since: a 4-5 start followed by five straight wins, followed by losses to Northwestern and Illinois before beating Rutgers last weekend.
For a team that starts four seniors and one junior, all of whom have been in the program for multiple years, it's been remarkably inconsistent. A.J. Hoggard struggled early before having a few weeks of stellar play. Malik Hall has five games of 15 or more points -- and five games of five or fewer points. Mady Sissoko hasn't taken the next step down low. And the Spartans' vaunted freshman class has barely moved the needle outside of Coen Carr (although Jeremy Fears Jr. being the victim of a December shooting has also played a factor). Five-star prospect Xavier Booker has three DNPs in six Big Ten games.
Can it be fixed, and when?
Michigan State is the team on this list best positioned to turn things around over the final two months, mostly because of the aforementioned experience. The Spartans' efficiency metrics are still impressive, and this is a team that brought back most of the players who helped Tom Izzo reach the Sweet 16 as a 7-seed last season. The one thing Izzo can't fix now is the lack of Joey Hauser, who shot 46% from 3 last season and provided much-needed spacing in the frontcourt. Hall is totaling 29 points and 13 rebounds in his past two games, though, providing some optimism.
Adama Bal's big and-1 in the closing seconds gives Santa Clara its first win over Gonzaga in their past 27 meetings.
Gonzaga Bulldogs (11-5)
AP preseason ranking: 11
Current ranking: Unranked (5 votes)
What's gone wrong?
It looked like a typical Gonzaga season through the first month of the campaign: a 7-1 start, with the lone loss coming to Purdue at the Maui Invitational. Since then, though, the Zags have gone just 4-4, including losses to Washington and Santa Clara. They dropped out of the top 25 for the first time since 2016, and also might not be the clear favorite in the West Coast Conference.
There are some clear issues on this team, and those were exacerbated when Eastern Washington transfer Steele Venters was lost for the season with a knee injury in early November. Venters was the Big Sky Player of the Year last season, and is a career 40% 3-point shooter. Gonzaga is shooting just 31.7% from 3 for the season and ranks in the bottom 40 nationally in percentage of points from 3s. Combine that with a lack of players who can create their own shot, and the offense has gotten bogged down too often. The Zags are shooting 20-for-101 (19.8%) in their five losses. It also doesn't help that Mark Few has essentially zero depth, especially in the backcourt. They rank No. 350 in bench minutes.
Can it be fixed, and when?
Gonzaga is at risk of missing the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1998 -- two years before Few took over. While the deficiencies likely can't be fixed during the season, the Zags can still put together a résumé that allows them to hear their name on Selection Sunday. For that to happen, though, they have to avoid bad losses and at least split the regular-season title with Saint Mary's. There's also a game at Kentucky on Feb. 10. A win there would be enormous. Looking further ahead, expect Few to prioritize shooting in the portal this spring.
UCLA Bruins (8-10)
AP preseason ranking: Unranked (47 votes)
Current ranking: Unranked (0 votes)
What's gone wrong?
UCLA is the only team on this list that wasn't ranked in the preseason, but that doesn't preclude it from being one of the most disappointing teams in the country. A 46-point loss at Utah last week essentially sealed a spot on this list. Mick Cronin's team opened the season with three straight wins, then lost a couple close games to Marquette and Gonzaga. Nothing unexpected. After beating UC Riverside, though, the Bruins proceeded to lose eight of their next nine games, including home games against Cal State Northridge and California.
Cronin built his roster around a slew of international recruits, including two projected one-and-done players in Aday Mara and Berke Buyuktuncel. As a whole, they haven't panned out. Mara barely plays, Jan Vide barely played until last weekend against Washington, Ilane Fibleuil has seen inconsistent minutes and Buyuktuncel missed most of November and December due to eligibility and injury issues. As a result, the personnel doesn't quite fit. There aren't enough guards or shooters -- which explains UCLA shooting 29% from 3.
Can it be fixed, and when?
Despite winning two in a row against Washington and Arizona State, UCLA's postseason chances for this season are done, barring one of the biggest second-half turnarounds we've seen in recent college basketball history. Still, there's a young nucleus of options in Westwood that can be built around moving forward, assuming the likes of Adem Bona and Buyuktuncel don't turn pro or enter the transfer portal. Sebastian Mack has surprised, Lazar Stefanovic is a double-figure scorer and Dylan Andrews can be a rotation piece. But, Cronin needs to do a lot of work in the spring. Unranked four-star Eric Freeny is the lone player signed in the 2024 class. A big portal class could be in the cards.
Arkansas Razorbacks (10-7)
AP preseason ranking: 14
Current ranking: Unranked (0 votes)
What's gone wrong?
After beating Purdue in a preseason exhibition game, the Razorbacks entered the regular season with plenty of expectations. Three straight wins to start the season raised those hopes. But the wheels started to fall off right after that, with a home loss to UNC Greensboro and a disappointing 1-2 performance in the Bahamas. There was a win over Duke in November and five wins in six games, but SEC play began with three straight losses before Tuesday's late win over Texas A&M.
Eric Musselman has mastered the art of building teams via the transfer portal, but this year's crop has been inconsistent, at best. Tramon Mark is the lone bright spot. Khalif Battle has played a total of two minutes in his past two games, El Ellis rarely got off the bench for the past month before suddenly starting Tuesday and Keyon Menifield Jr. was ineligible the first 10 games. It's led to undefined roles as Musselman looks to find the right rotation and the right mix at point guard with Ellis and Menifield Jr. Rebounding has also been a huge issue; the Razorbacks rank last in the SEC in offensive rebounding and just gave up 19 offensive boards to A&M.
Can it be fixed, and when?
There's enough talent on this roster to turn things around, and perhaps the win over A&M will spark momentum. The biggest key is finding some sort of consistent role allocation: like continuing to integrate Menifield Jr. at the point guard spot and getting more consistent playmaking that could theoretically lead to more open shots (and more made shots). Trevon Brazile, a projected first-round pick earlier this season, also needs to play with more urgency. The Razorbacks need to start stacking wins in the next six games: vs. South Carolina, at Ole Miss, vs. Kentucky, at Missouri, at LSU Tigers and vs. Georgia.
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: Full Highlights
Texas A&M Aggies (10-7)
AP preseason ranking: 15
Current ranking: Unranked (0 votes)
What's gone wrong?
A&M was something of a mystery team entering the season: Were the Aggies more the team that started last season 6-5 and got battered in the NCAA tournament by 10-seed Penn State, or the one that won 19 of 23 games in between? It's still unclear. They opened the season with five straight wins but are 5-7 in the 12 games since.
While Wade Taylor IV has been putting up huge scoring numbers, his shooting is down from last season, and he's getting inconsistent help from the supporting cast. Tyrece Radford has produced when on the floor but missed five games in November and December due to injury, while Henry Coleman III was great early, but has scored in single-digits in five of his past seven games. The Aggies as a team are shooting 26.5% from 3, ranking in the bottom 15 nationally and rank in the 300s in assist rate. In losses to LSU and Auburn this month they scored fewer than 0.80 points per possession.
Can it be fixed, and when?
In terms of NCAA tournament hopes, the top end of the résumé is still very solid. There are wins over Kentucky and Iowa State; there are four Quadrant 1 wins -- tied for the third most in college basketball entering Wednesday. Taylor IV gives Buzz Williams one of the elite playmakers in the sport, and Radford and Coleman III have shown in the past to be reliable complementary options. Their past two results have been a win over Kentucky and a final-second loss at Arkansas, so there should be some optimism entering a stretch that includes three of the next four games at home.
Miami Hurricanes (12-5)
AP preseason ranking: 13
Current ranking: Unranked (0 votes)
What's gone wrong?
Jim Larrañaga had to replace two key starters off a Final Four team in Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller, but with the emergence of Wooga Poplar and the addition of Matthew Cleveland, the Hurricanes were once again expected to be a factor come March. And while their overall record isn't terrible, they've lost to Louisville and Florida State at home in back-to-back ACC games and their metrics are unimpressive.
Miami's NCAA tournament success over the past two seasons has come primarily because of its elite offense. While the defense was vulnerable, there were good individual defenders, and the ability to simply outscore teams masked any other issues. This season, the offense hasn't been quite as potent against stiffer competition. Larrañaga's top four of Nijel Pack, Poplar, Cleveland and Norchad Omier is as good as it gets, but there's a dropoff after them. Bensley Joseph has been inconsistent shooting while Kyshawn George is the only player who has offered anything off the bench. As for the defense, Miami has allowed 80-plus points to the likes of Louisville, Florida State and FIU. The Canes lack rim protection and are far too easy to score on inside the arc.
Can it be fixed, and when?
Given how wide open the ACC is outside of North Carolina and Duke, and given the talent level of Larrañaga's core four, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Miami right the ship and go on a run with a stretch of winnable games coming up. (Although, Louisville and Florida State were winnable games, too.) But the metrics, both the predictive- and résumé-based ones, are concerning. On the floor, does George get a run back in the starting lineup? He started four games when Pack and Poplar missed time and averaged 13.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists and shot 42.9% from 3. He could potentially provide a spark. Miami needs to circle the two remaining games against Carolina and the home date with Duke on Feb. 21. Getting a couple of wins would improve their at-large résumé dramatically.
Arizona's Kylan Boswell gets out in transition and beats Bronny James to the basket for two.
USC Trojans (8-10)
AP preseason ranking: 21
Current ranking: Unranked (0 votes)
What's gone wrong?
When USC beat Kansas State by 13 on national TV to open the season, things looked promising. Isaiah Collier had 18 points and six assists, Boogie Ellis had 24 points and it was clear Andy Enfield had one of the elite backcourts in the country. The Trojans even started 4-1. But they've since gone 4-9, with losses to Long Beach State and Oregon State (by 16) included in that collection.
Injuries have been a huge problem. Bronny James missed the first eight games and had to be eased back into the fold following his cardiac arrest over the summer. Collier, who also had some bouts of inconsistency in nonconference play, is out four to six weeks with a hand injury, while Ellis has missed a couple games with injury. Joshua Morgan missed two games this month with an illness and Kobe Johnson missed time with a knee injury. As a result, chemistry has been a work in progress. Along with that comes a lack of defensive cohesion. The Trojans rank 12th in the Pac-12 through six games in defensive efficiency and they've allowed at least one point per possession in 12 of their past 13 games.
Can it be fixed, and when?
Like UCLA, the ship has sailed for USC to hear its name on Selection Sunday. It's time to look ahead to next season. Collier is likely gone to the NBA, while Ellis, Morgan and DJ Rodman are seniors. James' status is yet to be determined. But Enfield has already signed three ESPN 100 recruits for the fall -- including Trent Perry, who will likely fill Collier's shoes. Liam Campbell and Brody Kozlowski are also entering the fold. Enfield will have to do some damage in the portal to find experienced scorers and frontcourt reinforcements, but the cupboard won't be bare.
Texas Longhorns (12-5)
AP preseason ranking: 18
Current ranking: Unranked (20 votes)
What's gone wrong?
Rodney Terry did one of the best coaching jobs in the country last season, taking over midway through the year and leading Texas to the Big 12 conference tournament title and an Elite Eight appearance. His first full season started off strong, with 11 wins in the first 13 games -- the lone losses coming to UConn and Marquette. But the Longhorns have lost to West Virginia and UCF back-to-back, and are 1-3 in the Big 12.
Terry had to do major work in the portal and on the recruiting trail to help replace Marcus Carr, Timmy Allen, Sir'Jabari Rice and Christian Bishop. And it's been a mixed bag. Max Abmas has been a bright spot, but the rest have been inconsistent, at best. Ithiel Horton's 20 points against the Knights was his second double-figure scoring effort since November; Kadin Shedrick's minutes are being managed after a recent injury; Chendall Weaver and Ze'Rik Onyema have not adapted seamlessly to a higher level; and ESPN 100 recruit Chris Johnson has logged four straight DNPs. The talent level of last year just isn't there. On top of that, Dylan Disu, Texas' best frontcourt player, missed the first nine games due to injury. In Big 12 play, the defense has been particularly porous, allowing at least 1.02 points per possession in all four games.
Can it be fixed, and when?
Texas' NCAA tournament profile is in real trouble. The Longhorns' only nonconference win of note was a neutral-site win over LSU. And their best win overall is at Cincinnati. Nine of their 12 wins are of the Quadrant 4 variety, and their résumé-based metrics are headed in the wrong direction. The next six games will be the barometer of where this team is headed over the next two months: vs. Baylor, at Oklahoma, at BYU, vs. Houston, at TCU, vs. Iowa State. There's a chance they're not favored in any of those -- but they need to pick off at least three wins to feel better moving forward.