With the calendar turning from 2023 to 2024 and nonconference play transitioning into league action, it's not going to take long to separate real from fake, and teams with staying power from teams that simply had fluke starts.
A lot of those gaudy records from November and December upstarts will begin to fade. We see it every year. LSU opened 2022-23 with 12 wins in its first 13 games -- before winning just two the rest of the season. New Mexico was the last team in the country to lose a game last season, but the Lobos dropped eight of their final 11 games and didn't make the NCAA tournament.
Through two months of this season, we have now seen three power-conference teams that were picked 10th or below in their league's preseason poll now ranked in the top 25: BYU, Oklahoma and Ole Miss. The Cougars are ranked in the top 10 -- and even the top three -- in predictive metrics, Oklahoma has just one loss to North Carolina and Ole Miss is one of three unbeaten programs remaining.
Will any of these teams be the UConn, or the Purdue of the 2023-24 season? Neither the eventual national champions nor the No. 1 team for much of the campaign was ranked in the AP preseason Top 25 last season. Either scenario seems like a stretch at this point, so could they otherwise be like Kansas State? The Wildcats were picked last in the Big 12 last season before earning a 3-seed in the NCAA tournament and making a run to the Elite Eight.
To get a better feel for the aforementioned trio, we reached out to coaches who have faced them this season. Are they for real? Or simply having a good run of form?
BYU Cougars
Record: 12-1
Key results: Home win over San Diego State; neutral-court win over NC State in Las Vegas; loss at Utah
Preseason ranking: 13th in the Big 12
Why they're for real: It was difficult to figure out the expectations for Mark Pope's team entering the season. The Cougars were coming off their worst season in almost 20 years, and moving from the West Coast Conference to the Big 12 while bringing many players back. Being picked just above the cellar of arguably the best league in the country didn't seem far off.
Instead, they beat San Diego State -- last year's runner-up -- in the second game of the season, and have rattled off 12 wins in their first 13 games.
"Not to be clichéd, but they're older and more mature," one opposing coach said. "They care about winning. They're selfless. They're sneaky physical. They play with an arrogance and a chip on their shoulder."
The biggest key for BYU, which is currently ranked No. 3 at KenPom and No. 8 in the BPI, has been its 3-point shooting and passing. The Cougars shoot 38% from 3, No. 23 nationally, but they're top five in both assist rate and 3-point rate.
"They're such a good passing team. As soon as they see the help, they spray the ball," one coach said. "They're very good shooters. They drive to pass. You really have to prepare for that. They're really driving it to get you to help. They're not trying to get to the basket. When [Aly] Khalifa is on the floor, they have five guys on the floor who can make a shot. You're going to get exposed eventually -- and they're willing to get the ball to the open man."
"They remind me of Creighton last year," another coach added. "You're just terrified of the 3. You obsess over it in preparation."
Multiple coaches who have faced BYU this season mentioned the Cougars' offensive rebounding. They rank in the top 15 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, but the challenging part is how most of them are long rebounds that result in 3-pointers against an unsettled defense.
"They send five guys to the glass, but they just go to your back, they don't try to go around you," a coach said. "They wait for a long rebound, which is a good way to play when you shoot 35 3s a game. Not many people in college basketball are doing it."
"Those are daggers," another coach added.
Jaxson Robinson nails the 3-pointer vs. Denver Pioneers
BYU has six players averaging double figures, with the leading scorer, Jaxson Robinson, coming off the bench. The former Texas A&M and Arkansas transfer has been one of the biggest breakout stars in college basketball this season, going from 8.5 points last season to 16.0 points in Provo.
"Nobody on their team is going to overwhelm you or overpower you, but Jaxson Robinson gets some credit there," one coach said. "He gets to his spots, gets to his pull-ups. He has some NBA draft buzz. He's a good player."
Why they're not: While most coaches think BYU's offense will be sustainable (more on that in a second) in Big 12 play, some question whether their defensive numbers are more in danger of regression in the coming weeks. The Cougars are 10th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, with their 3-point shooting defense (25.7%) ranking third nationally. Is this a product of their schedule? Are teams simply running cold against them?
From a personnel standpoint, it will be interesting to see what Pope does in the frontcourt. Fousseyni Traore started the first six games of the season then missed seven with a hamstring injury. In Traore's place went Khalifa, one of the best passing big men in the country and a career 37% 3-point shooter. Will Traore go back into the starting lineup when he returns from injury?
"It changes them quite a bit. You're adding guys that are non-shooters," one coach said. "Even though Traore can score in the post, you're adding someone you don't need to guard on the perimeter, you can play them a little differently. With Khalifa, with the 5-out stuff, you can't play off him or be in drop or be in your normal coverage. He's slow to roll, but he makes you pay. He's not a great 3-point shooter, but it's enough to where he can go 2-for-3. You have to guard him. You can just not guard those other guys."
As for the offense, will BYU continue to make shots from the perimeter at this rate? The Cougars have made double-digit 3s in all but one game (the loss to Utah Utes) and they've made at least 32.4% of their 3s in all but one game (again, the loss to Utah). It's just a really good shooting team, but there are some worries.
"It's probably going to regress a little bit when they're facing better teams, when you don't have to help on drives because you have better athletes that can just guard the ball," one coach said. "Teams that have defenders who can guard in space. And if they're not making 3s, what is their floor?"
"Going from 12 or 13 3s to six 3s is a big difference," another coach added. "Their missed shot transition is really big. When you're playing legitimate top-20 teams, you don't get as much transition. Are they going to be able to consistently get those same shots in the halfcourt to make up for the lack of transition? I can be completely off and they go 12-6 in the Big 12 because they just continue to do the same stuff, but I have concerns."
When we might know: The Big 12 didn't do BYU any favors in its first season in the league. Among the Cougars' seven January games are road games at Baylor and Texas Tech, as well as home tilts against Iowa State, Houston and Texas. And it all gets started with a game this weekend against an 11-2 Cincinnati team (10 p.m. ET, ESPN2). If BYU enters February above .500 in the Big 12, the Cougars will be in great shape moving forward, especially with a manageable middle third of league play.
Memphis Tigers vs. Ole Miss Rebels: Full Highlights
Ole Miss Rebels
Record: 13-0
Key results: Home wins over Memphis and NC State
Preseason ranking: 10th in the SEC
Why they're for real: Ole Miss was essentially starting completely fresh in the offseason. The Rebels replaced Kermit Davis with Chris Beard, who went out and rebuilt the roster via the transfer portal with just a few players returning from last season. The uncertainty continued when the campaign kicked off, as transfers Moussa Cisse (Oklahoma State) and Brandon Murray (Georgetown) hadn't received waivers yet.
But the Rebels built up some momentum with a handful of easy games, then beat NC State and Memphis back-to-back in late November and early December. They now sit at 13-0 entering SEC play.
"Obviously winning cures a lot, but those dudes believe in Chris Beard's message and what they're trying to do," one coach said.
While the numbers indicate this is the worst defensive team of Beard's career, multiple opposing coaches said the biggest strength for the Rebels is on the defensive end of the floor. And since Cisse became eligible, they've held four of their last six opponents to below one point per possession.
"We were really worried about their ability to protect the rim," one opposing coach said. "Moussa Cisse was part of a top-two, top-three defense in the country at Oklahoma State and a top-two, top-three defense at Memphis the year before. And not just him, they have Jamarion Sharp. Having both of those guys protect the rim all night long is really impressive. There wasn't a possession where they gave us anything easy."
"They limit everything. They don't give you easy baskets," another coach added. "We were frustrated that we didn't get anything easy against them. They did a very good job of limiting easy baskets, limiting transition baskets. You can't play soft against them. You have to match their physicality, you have to match their toughness. You can't allow your frustration with a lack of easy baskets carry over from possession to possession."
Offensively, there's plenty of individual talent. Matthew Murrell (17.0 PPG) was a preseason All-SEC selection; Allen Flanigan (16.7 PPG) was considered a first-round talent at Auburn before a 2021 injury; Jaemyn Brakefield (10.8 PPG) had 25 points against NC State earlier this season and is putting up 18.8 points in his last four games.
Jaylen Murray drains triple vs. NC State Wolfpack
But the big surprise has been Jaylen Murray, a New Yorker who transferred from Saint Peter's last spring. The 5-foot-11 point guard has been given the keys to the offense and is excelling, averaging 14.7 points and 3.7 assists, shooting 46% from 3-point range.
"Murray is really good in the ball screen, he has great pace, he has great swagger, he can read the game," one coach said. "I think he's someone who is completely different than what they've had. Great pace, great feel, winning DNA, can pull-up, can finish at the rim. And I think he can do that late in games. Late-game, he is a problem. He can make the right read, and that's when Murrell shakes loose, that's when Brakefield shakes loose."
Murray has meshed well with Murrell in the backcourt. Murrell, a 6-foot-4 shooting guard, was a double-figure scorer each of the last two seasons in Oxford and has improved his numbers across the board despite the influx of talent around him.
"He understands who he is and is comfortable with who he is," an opposing coach said. "He looked like their leader, he had great poise. He looked like a pro. He got to his strong hand. Everything about his demeanor, his edge, his competitiveness. It was, 'I don't have to be ball-dominant, I'm gonna do my part to make sure we win.'"
Why they're not: There might not be a team in the country with a bigger disparity between its poll position and its computer rankings. KenPom has the AP No. 22 Rebels at No. 79, while the BPI slots them at No. 77. Some of this is due to going 12-21 last season, but even BartTorvik.com -- which allows you to rank from just the start of the season -- has the Rebels at No. 68.
The schedule hasn't been imposing, they've only played one Quadrant 1 game (at UCF) and five of their wins have come by one possession. But where might they slip up in SEC play?
"One weakness that was glaring was their ability to defensive rebound," one coach said. "That's something that has to be cleaned up. Jamarion Sharp isn't the most mobile, those dudes weren't boxing out like that, it wasn't a priority. In the SEC, there's better athletes, that could become a problem."
While Murray has been a game-changer for Ole Miss in nonconference play, will he be able to continue his high-level play in the SEC? Beard doesn't have another pure point guard on the bench if he struggles or gets into foul trouble.
"Can teams put him in situations where he has to switch or gets in rotations? Can teams get to where he becomes a liability defensively?" an opposing coach said.
There were concerns earlier in the season about the Rebels' depth, but the arrivals of Cisse and Murray in December have alleviated potential issues. Beard has slowly integrated both into the rotation, although Murray played a season-high 25 minutes and scored nine points in a win over Bryant on New Year's Eve. The former Georgetown and LSU transfer could become an important piece in league play, as he's a proven scorer who can go get his own shot.
"Are their guards dynamic enough to win games in the league?" a coach asked. "In the SEC, it comes down to switching and blowing up plays."
When we might know: Ole Miss has played a relatively easy nonconference schedule, but the Rebels are immediately thrown into the gauntlet of conference play with a road trip to Tennessee this weekend, where their perfect record will be squarely at risk. There's also a five-game stretch in late January and early February that will be telling: at Auburn, vs. Arkansas, at Texas A&M, vs. Mississippi State, vs. Auburn. Can the Rebels come out of there with three (or more) wins?
Javian McCollum shows off the range on trey
Oklahoma Sooners
Record: 12-1
Key results: Home win over Providence; neutral-site wins over Arkansas, Iowa, USC; neutral-court loss to North Carolina in Charlotte
Preseason ranking: 12th in the Big 12
Why they're for real: Oklahoma has gotten off to strong starts a couple of times under Porter Moser before: going 11-2 in its first 13 games in 2021-22, starting 9-3 (and also beating Alabama by 24) last season. The Sooners didn't make the NCAA tournament in either campaign, and finished 15-17 overall a year ago.
But they've once again handled their business in the noncon this season, winning 12 of 13 in November and December, with the lone loss coming to UNC.
"They're just really unselfish, they don't have guys hunting shots. They seem like a really connected team," one coach said. "They're not playing for themselves."
For the Sooners, it starts on the defensive end. They rank No. 15 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom, guarding both inside and outside the arc effectively. They've held all but three opponents to below one point per possession.
"They have great size at the two through four," an opposing coach said. "A lot of interchangeable pieces, they can do a lot of switching off the ball, they make it really hard to catch. It's some of the stuff [Porter was] doing back at Loyola Chicago, where they were switching one through four off the ball, that denial stuff, it makes it hard for you to run offense. They tried to do it a little bit in his first year at Oklahoma, but didn't really have the personnel to be able to do it. But this year they have the personnel to do a lot of off-ball switching. They can live with a point guard on a four-man or a four-man guarding a point guard, because they have that athleticism and versatility."
Oklahoma also switches to a 1-2-2 press at times during the game -- not to force turnovers or create havoc, but simply to throw a wrinkle at the opponent and slow down the game.
"It's a 1-2-2 with their four-man at the top," a coach said. "It kind of just slows down the pace of it. It eliminates transition scoring and also, you're not getting in your offense until 20, 21 on the clock. And with their switching, you're not running your actions. So it's late shot clock before you can get a look at the rim."
The Sooners' offensive scheme is centered on ball screens and the perimeter duo of Javian McCollum and Otega Oweh.
Sam Godwin throws down powerful slam dunk vs. UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
McCollum, a transfer from Siena, has established himself as one of the most dynamic point guards in the country. He had 20 against Arkansas, 19 against Providence, 18 against USC and is shooting better than 39% from 3.
"Our game plan was to stop McCollum," one coach said. "He can create his own shot. You can trap ball screens, but you're gonna be guarding 30 ball screens."
"McCollum brings them a different dimension," another coach said. "He's really fast with the ball, plays with great pace, can change gears and be fluid. He and [Milos] Uzan, they really play well off each other, especially when they're in the game together. It doesn't matter who brings the ball up, they're running pick and rolls, different actions."
Oweh, a former ESPN 100 prospect, is in the midst of a true breakout sophomore campaign. He averaged 4.8 points last season, but is now the team's leading scorer at 15.5 per game.
"He plays to his strengths," an opposing coach said. "He takes open 3s when he can, but if he has an angle on you on the drive, count it as a bucket. He can get to the rim, mid-range. Getting into the paint, spinning off you. In transition, you have to guard him."
Multiple opposing coaches mentioned starting center Sam Godwin as a key piece to Oklahoma's offensive success. While he averages 8.2 points in just 18.1 minutes, it's his work on the glass that makes a difference -- he's No. 1 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage.
"Godwin really plays his role well," one said. "He's a great screen-setter, really active. One of those guys that's always looking for work. Always looking to set a screen, then he rolls really hard to the rim."
"You gotta box him out," another said. "Four offensive rebounds a game. He reads the rim."
Why they're not: The potential Achilles' heels for the Sooners are primarily on the offensive end. Their perimeter shooting numbers look good for the entire season, making better than 35% of their 3-pointers through 13 games. But they've struggled in a couple of their tougher games, going 7-for-23 against North Carolina, 6-for-19 against Providence and 4-for-20 against Iowa. Some of that can be due to simple variance, but it's worth monitoring in Big 12 play.
"It's consistently being able to make 3 balls," a coach said. "[At their best] they're scoring the ball and getting their defense set and they're switching. But if they go through a scoring drought and can't slow the pace down and control the pace, are they going to be able to beat teams that theoretically have more talent? What they're doing right now is being able to score, getting their defense set and being able to dictate tempo."
"You could play zone, because of the shooting," one coach said. "The thing that hurts their shooting is Uzan: 40% last year, 26% this year. If he's making 3s, they'll be harder to guard. Zone them because then you just have to worry about McCollum."
The turnover battle is also key. Oklahoma's biggest weakness on paper is in the turnover department, ranking in the mid-200s nationally in turnover percentage. The Sooners have given the ball away on at least 20% of possessions in five of their last eight games, including 18 times (to just six assists) in the loss to Carolina. Meanwhile, they've forced turnovers on more than 20% of possession in six games this season.
"Take care of the ball. You can score. They don't trap the post, they don't trap ball screens," one coach said. "You just have to take care of the ball and win in transition."
When we might know: The Sooners haven't played a true road game yet this season, although the matchup against North Carolina in Charlotte came pretty close. That will change soon, as Oklahoma hosts Iowa State this weekend before heading on the road to play TCU and Kansas. Winning in Allen Fieldhouse is nearly impossible for even the best teams, so being competitive in that game and winning the two games preceding it would be a huge boost.