Key metrics that could help determine what happens on Selection Sunday

With every men's college basketball conference in the country shifting into league play, we've reached a bit of a dividing line in terms of team résumé-building. It's also fun to put a marker down on a few key metrics, if only as a comparison to what really matters 10 or so weeks from now.

A year ago, Rutgers was our one miss on Selection Sunday. The Scarlet Knights had a solid season, posting a combined 10-10 record in Quads 1 and 2, and winning what many thought was an elimination game over Michigan in their Big Ten tournament opener.

At the end of the day, though, the NCAA selection committee apparently could not get past the Knights' nonconference schedule ranking (314th) and the fact that seven of their 19 wins came against Quad 4 competition. Agree or disagree, the committee has been remarkably consistent over the years in separating the final at-large candidates by drilling down on this point.

So, let's take a look at the teams with something to work on -- or something to be proud of that could help their chances come March 17.

Don't say we didn't warn you

Let's start with this season's Rutgers squad. The following schools appear to have "missed the memo," as the Scarlet Knights did in 2022-23. All are potential bubble teams come Selection Sunday. Nonconference strength of schedule is noted in parentheses:

• Pittsburgh Panthers (345)

• Nebraska Cornhuskers (332)

• Ole Miss Rebels (331)

• Washington State Cougars (323)

• Drake Bulldogs (321)

• Northwestern Wildcats (316)

• New Mexico Lobos (312)

• Iowa State Cyclones (310)

• Cincinnati Bearcats (296)

• Oklahoma Sooners (287)

• Mississippi State Bulldogs (278)

• Wake Forest Demon Deacons (276)

• Texas Tech Red Raiders (267)

Rutgers, by the way, checks in at No. 165 in terms of nonconference schedule. Solid enough, if the Scarlet Knights can overachieve a bit in Big Ten play.

Smartest guys in the room

At the other end of the spectrum are the non-power conference schools looking to maximize their NCAA tournament seeding and selection prospects. So let's give our Bracketology "gold stars" to the following (again, nonconference strength of schedule is noted in parentheses):

• San Diego State Aztecs (22)

• Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (30)

• UC Irvine Anteaters (32)

• Memphis Tigers (34)

• Colgate Raiders (37)

• Dayton Flyers (47)

• Florida Atlantic Owls (48)

• Boise State Broncos (49)

• Gonzaga Bulldogs (52)

• Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (63)

• Saint Mary's Gaels (80)

Winning the right games

Scheduling, of course, is the "easy" part of the equation. Winning the games that get you into the tournament is where the rubber hits the road. It's still early, of course, but here are the top performers to date in combined Quad 1 and Quad 2 victories (Q1 records in parentheses):

• Houston Cougars, 4-0 (4-0)

• Purdue Boilermakers, 7-1 (4-1)

• Arizona Wildcats, 4-3 (4-2)

• Tennessee Volunteers, 4-3 (2-3)

• Clemson Tigers, 5-1 (3-1)

• UConn Huskies, 5-2 (2-1)

• Marquette Golden Eagles, 4-3 (3-3)

• Kansas Jayhawks, 4-1 (3-1)

• Colorado State Rams, 5-1 (2-0)

• Utah Utes, 5-2 (2-2)

• Wisconsin Badgers, 4-3 (3-3)

• Florida Atlantic Owls, 5-1 (2-1)

• Texas A&M Aggies, 3-4 (3-3)

• Dayton Flyers, 3-2 (2-2)

• Villanova Wildcats, 4-2 (4-0)

• Memphis Tigers, 7-2 (2-2)

• Grand Canyon Lopes, 4-1 (2-1)

Others with multiple Quad 1 wins:

• Kansas State Wildcats (2-0)

• Nevada Wolf Pack (2-0)

• Duke Blue Devils (2-1)

• Northwestern Wildcats (2-1)

• Providence Friars (2-1)

• Saint Joseph's Hawks (2-1)

• Baylor Bears (2-2)

• Virginia Cavaliers (2-2)

• Creighton Bluejays (2-3)

• North Carolina Tar Heels (2-3)

Wrong side of the menu

Next are the teams that have feasted -- excessively, the committee might say -- at the softer end of the Division I menu. All have loaded up on Quad 4 games with an otherwise losing season to date (non-Q4 records in parentheses):

• Longwood Lancers, 9-1 (0-2)

• Maryland Terrapins, 7-1 (2-3)

• Georgetown Hoyas, 6-1 (1-5)

• Oklahoma State Cowboys, 6-1 (1-4)

• LSU Tigers, 6-1 (2-4)

• Louisville Cardinals, 5-3 (0-4)

• Vanderbilt Commodores, 5-1 (0-7)

• Missouri Tigers, 5-1 (3-4)

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