It's been a wild ride here at Bubble Watch 2022, and now the NCAA men's basketball committee is about to have the final say.
Before that happens, here are some tips on how to watch Sunday's games and especially the evening's selection show like a pro.
Richmond can bump one team out of the field
In the eyes of the committee, there are two kinds of Selection Sundays. Either the at-large field is set by Sunday or it's not.
This year the at-large field is not set because Richmond is still playing. The Spiders have no hope of getting an at-large invite, but if they defeat Davidson in the Atlantic 10 final, Chris Mooney's team will earn the league's automatic bid. Since the Wildcats are already safely in the NCAA bracket barring only the most extraordinary surprise, the net effect of a Richmond win would therefore be to eliminate one at-large team from the field of 68.
You might well ask which bubble teams will be nervously watching the A-10 final. Excellent question. At Bubble Watch, we prefer to frame this matter in terms of "level of surprise."
If Richmond loses Sunday, the Watch projects that there will be four spots available for the bubble teams listed below. Should the Spiders win, on the other hand, there will be just three open lines in the bracket.
Here are the consensus choices for the last teams in the at-large field, ranked from most to least surprising if they were to hear their names called.
Longest of all possible long shots: BYU and North Texas
The Cougars and the Mean Green both lost earlier in their conference tournaments than the consensus said was advisable. Still, if the committee were of a mind to voice its independence from the mock-bracket chorus, who knows, either Brigham Young or UNT could be the beneficiary.
Long shots: Oklahoma, Wake Forest and Rutgers
Three long shots, three very different trajectories. The Sooners made a late charge that is now viewed as having come up just short. The Demon Deacons lost to Boston College on Wednesday night and then watched as other bubble teams apparently passed them by in the bracket.
Rutgers is perhaps the most interesting case of all. The last-minute consensus has broken against the Scarlet Knights and their unique profile quietly, yet unmistakably. That consensus might be mistaken, of course, but its movement was discernible.
Could go either way: SMU and Xavier
One notable feature of this particular pairing is the tendency of some brackets to choose either the Mustangs or the Musketeers but not both.
Cautiously optimistic: Wyoming, Notre Dame and Texas A&M
Beating UNLV on the Rebels' home floor in the Mountain West quarterfinals might have closed the deal for the Cowboys. The Fighting Irish lost their opening game in the ACC tournament but had the relative good fortune to lose to eventual champion Virginia Tech.
A&M's team-sheet metrics have shot up like a rocket after SEC tournament wins over Florida, Auburn and Arkansas. Perhaps the fact that those rankings are so new is what's still keeping the Aggies under the "bubble" heading at all.
Of course, Buzz Williams' team can make this question a moot point with a win over Tennessee in the SEC title game.
Just so there's no confusion, yes, the above list does assume that teams such as Michigan and Indiana will hear their names called. Do bear in mind, however, that one such "safe" team every year or two tends to find itself saying, "That was closer than we thought," in Dayton.
Now it's all in the hands of the committee. Enjoy Selection Sunday!
Here's our current projection of the bubble:
Teams from traditional one-bid conferences: 19
Locks: 38 teams
The bubble: 20 teams for 11 available spots
Should be in: 4 teams
Work to do: 16 teams
ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC | American | Others
ACC
Locks
Duke Blue Devils, North Carolina Tar Heels, Virginia Tech Hokies
Work to do
Miami Hurricanes
If there's a script for bubble teams at their conference tournaments, it reads like what we just saw Miami do in Brooklyn. The Hurricanes defeated lower seed Boston College and then played top seed Duke into the 40th minute (behind 24 points from Kameron McGusty) before losing by four. That will get the job done. Miami's going to hear its name called on Sunday, possibly as a No. 10 seed. Jim Larranaga's team takes care of the ball, forces turnovers and hits its 2s. The Hurricanes can definitely cause problems for a higher seed in the field of 68. (updated March 11)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
After an ACC quarterfinal loss to Virginia Tech, the wait until Selection Sunday will be a bit more tense than expected for the Fighting Irish. Mike Brey's team was checking in as a No. 11 seed in mock brackets before the ACC tournament, and a loss to the Hokies qualifies as a Quadrant 1 defeat. That would suggest Notre Dame will drop two spots or so -- but not, one would imagine, out of the field entirely. Nevertheless, the committee's been known to make a surprising selection now and then. The Irish would prefer that there be no surprises. (updated March 10)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Since losing to Boston College in the ACC tournament second round, Wake Forest has watched other bubble teams improve their profiles and climb higher in the bracket. The net result has been that the Demon Deacons have, in effect, fallen back simply by standing still. Specifically, the threshold for the last at-large bid in terms of measures like the NET rankings and strength of record has moved higher as Champ Week nears its conclusion. That's not the best news for a Wake team already in the clubhouse with rankings in the mid-40s for both metrics. It appears that it's going to be a close call for Steve Forbes' team. (updated March 12)
Big 12
Locks
Kansas Jayhawks, Baylor Bears, Texas Tech Red Raiders, Texas Longhorns, Iowa State Cyclones, TCU Horned Frogs
Work to do
Oklahoma Sooners
Before losing to Texas Tech by one in the Big 12 semifinals, Oklahoma won four straight and defeated defending national champion Baylor by five. Porter Moser's team stands at 18-15 with wins over the Bears, the Red Raiders and Iowa State Cyclones. By the metrics, OU tipped off against Tech as a solid at-large with a top-40 NET ranking and nearly the same status for strength of record. In the committee room, however, this figures to be a close call. The Sooners are 10-14 in Quadrants 1 and 2 and lost a Quadrant 3 home game to Butler. (updated March 12)
Big East
Locks
Villanova Wildcats, Providence Friars, UConn Huskies, Seton Hall Pirates, Marquette Golden Eagles
Should be in
Creighton Bluejays
For 120 minutes at Madison Square Garden, Creighton put on an impressive display of basketball against three opponents that will play in the NCAA tournament. That performance very nearly earned an automatic bid, but back-to-back 3s from Collin Gillespie late in the title game effectively delivered the victory to Villanova. The Bluejays will therefore be an at-large team, and it appears they will be seeded on the No. 9 line. On a night when it went 3-of-29 from beyond the arc, CU still hung with the Wildcats for 40 minutes. This is a dangerous team. (updated March 12)
Work to do
Xavier Musketeers
Any opening-round loss in a conference tournament is bad when you're a "last four in" team. But when you lose in overtime to an opponent that's 13-18 and you were up by six with 44 seconds remaining in regulation and you go 13-of-29 at the line, the loss is beyond bad. It's cataclysmic. Xavier's hopes of a bid may be gone after losing to Butler in the opening round of the Big East tournament. The Musketeers have lost six of their last seven and eight of their last 10. While the wins over UConn and Ohio State still look great, the question is whether the rest of the profile is still strong enough for those two victories to matter. (updated March 9)
Big Ten
Locks
Purdue Boilermakers, Wisconsin Badgers, Illinois Fighting Illini, Ohio State Buckeyes, Iowa Hawkeyes, Michigan State Spartans
Work to do
Indiana Hoosiers
Never mind the banked-in 3 by Iowa's Jordan Bohannon that eliminated Indiana in the Big Ten semifinals. The Hoosiers had likely played their way into the field one game earlier with their win over Illinois. Mocks were quick to anoint Mike Woodson's team as a No. 11 seed, and IU was up nine on the Hawkeyes with a little more than five minutes remaining in the contest. Indiana is clearly at-large material, and Trayce Jackson-Davis is playing the best basketball of his excellent career. (updated March 12)
Michigan Wolverines
Going strictly by the numbers, Michigan is fine. A NET ranking and KenPom spot in the mid-30s, along with a less impressive but still serviceable placement in the mid-40s for strength of record will, historically speaking, earn you an at-large bid just about every time. Well, tell that to the mock brackets. The community of forecasters appears unhappy with the Wolverines' 17-14 record and 8-13 mark in Quadrants 1 and 2. Juwan Howard's team is being projected at the 11th hour as a "last four in" team that could be heading to Dayton. (updated March 12)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Prior to a 10-point loss to Iowa in the Big Ten quarterfinals, Rutgers was included in the field of 68 in roughly 80% of the brackets aggregated at bracketmatrix.com. That hit rate represented a vote of confidence in a profile that stood out even among teams with better numbers in "results-based" metrics than in "predictive" measures. The category is populated by Miami and Creighton, among others, but Rutgers pushes this envelope. Known for outstanding victories and a great Quadrant 1 record, the Knights entered Friday in the 50s -- anywhere from 18 to 28 spots below the Hurricanes and Bluejays -- in three measures of win value (KPI, strength of record and wins above bubble). It's a singular profile. If Rutgers does earn a No. 11 or 12 seed, the Knights might be cited as a precedent for years to come by teams with similar numbers. (updated March 11)
Pac-12
Locks
Arizona Wildcats, UCLA Bruins, USC Trojans
SEC
Locks
Auburn Tigers, Kentucky Wildcats, Tennessee Volunteers, Alabama Crimson Tide, LSU Tigers, Arkansas Razorbacks
Work to do
Texas A&M Aggies
Mock brackets are still mulling whether Texas A&M has played its way into the field of 68 by reaching the SEC tournament finals. The confusion is understandable with a team that lost eight in a row at one point this season but now has defeated Florida, Auburn and Arkansas in the span of three days. Note however that the Aggies are likely to go before the committee with a top-50 NET ranking as well as top-40 status in strength of record. In a blind review of profiles, that would customarily be a near-automatic "yes" as at-large material. A&M's trajectory was really unusual this year, but the end result could be a spot in the field of 68. (updated March 12)
Florida Gators
Absent the most surprising selection decision in recent memory, Florida is not going to the NCAA tournament. The Gators hovered on the fringes of the discussion for much of the season and then won a key game at home against Auburn. Since defeating the Tigers, however, Mike White's team is 2-3 with road wins at Georgia and Vanderbilt. UF's third defeat in that run was its three-point loss to Texas A&M in overtime in the SEC tournament second round. At 19-13 with rankings in the 50s for both the NET and strength of record, Florida's profile will in all likelihood lack the heft needed to prevail against numerous bubble rivals. (updated March 10)
American
Locks
Should be in
Memphis Tigers
The Tigers have successfully advanced to the American finals against Houston and, win or lose, Penny Hardaway's team will likely earn a seed in the area of the No. 9 line. The 70-63 semifinal win over SMU was impressive because it was not the slightest bit easy for Memphis. Foul trouble limited Jalen Duren to a bare minimum of playing time in the first half, and he went to the locker room in the second half to attend to an injured wrist. DeAndre Williams fouled out with 10 minutes remaining. But this team persevered and, after a tumultuous early season, now seems to be channeling its successful spirit from the 2021 NIT run. (updated March 12)
Work to do
At the tipoff of an American semifinal against Memphis that SMU went on to lose by seven, the Mustangs were included in a clear majority of the brackets aggregated at bracketmatrix.com. (No, mock brackets aren't the committee, but they're trying very hard to forecast the field correctly.) Losing to the Tigers shouldn't hurt a profile, right? Therefore one might assume Tim Jankovich's team will hear its name called. Well, maybe. Those mocks had SMU in as one of the very last teams in the field, so even in the good-news scenario there is zero cushion. Meaning a Richmond victory in the Atlantic 10 final, for example, could hit the Mustangs directly. It will be a suspenseful selection show for this group. (updated March 12)
Others
Locks
Gonzaga Bulldogs, Saint Mary's Gaels, Murray State Racers, Colorado State Rams, Boise State Broncos, Loyola Chicago Ramblers, South Dakota State Jackrabbits, San Diego State Aztecs
Should be in
San Francisco beat BYU in the West Coast Conference quarterfinals, rested the injured Yauhen Massalski for the semifinal against Gonzaga and suffered a 10-point defeat at the hands of the Bulldogs. The net result of all of the above is expected to be a No. 9 seed. Before the loss to the Zags, Todd Golden's team had joined Mark Few's group and Saint Mary's as WCC teams with top-25 NET rankings. That was one more than the Pac-12 and two more than the ACC could claim. These are good times for the Dons and for their league. (updated March 7)
Davidson Wildcats
Davidson is being projected as a No. 10 seed, which means somewhere there's a No. 7 seed that should be terrified in the first round despite being favored. In defeating Saint Louis by 15 in the Atlantic 10 semifinals, the Wildcats scored 1.11 points per possession or better for a fourth consecutive game. There are few if any coaches nationally who know their way around offense the way Bob McKillop does. With Luka Brajkovic, Hyunjung Lee and Foster Loyer, McKillop has the ideal players to realize his vision. Davidson might grab the A-10's automatic bid, but if not, there should be little or no drama attached to this team's status. (updated March 12)
Work to do
Wyoming Cowboys
Wyoming bowed out in the Mountain West semifinals with a seven-point loss to Boise State. The conventional wisdom says Jeff Linder's team has done enough to stick in the field of 68, possibly as a No. 11 seed. While the committee will of course have the final say, that wisdom feels apt enough with a team sheet showing rankings for the NET, KenPom and strength of record all in the 40s and 50s. The metrics don't always agree with each other, but they do on Wyoming. This is the type of profile that will typically earn a team an at-large bid as a double-digit seed. (updated March 12)
Dayton Flyers
Everything was going Dayton's way until Malachi Smith suffered an ankle injury late in the first half of the semifinal against Richmond. The Spiders outscored the Flyers 43-31 in the second half to record a four-point win. Anthony Grant's team has been a fixture on many "first four out" lists, but it appears likely that a Quadrant 2 defeat one game before a needed shot at Davidson will leave Dayton on the wrong side of the cut line. (updated March 12)
BYU Cougars
It will be said that BYU's at-large case is hopeless now that the Cougars have lost to San Francisco in the West Coast Conference quarterfinals. That may indeed turn out to be the case. One thing to remember, however, is that inaction can be a good thing, particularly when the competing bubble teams around you are all losing. The very Dons that defeated Mark Pope's team hadn't played a game for seven days before meeting up with BYU. In that time of no new resume-building, San Francisco actually rose in at least one team-sheet metric by nine spots. The Cougars have to hope something similar now occurs in their case. (updated March 5)
VCU Rams
It appears probable that VCU will fall short of the NCAA tournament. The Rams lost to local rival Richmond 75-64 in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals, as Jacob Gilyard powered the Spiders with 32 points. Even one more win could have made a difference for Mike Rhoades' team. Their opponent in the A-10 semifinals would have been Dayton, and a win over the Flyers would be a high Quadrant 2 victory. In fact, VCU's metrics heading into the league tournament were already better than commonly realized. Now, however, it looks as though being eliminated from the A-10 bracket Friday night means Virginia Commonwealth won't hear its name called on Sunday evening. (updated March 12)
North Texas Mean Green
On Selection Sunday morning, North Texas was selected as an at-large team by just five of the 130 or so mocks aggregated at bracketmatrix.com. That's a clear quantitative signal, surely, but there has also been some interesting background analysis voiced here and there by the purveyors of these same brackets. The committee has been known to go completely off-road before with a surprise pick, and if that were to happen in 2022, it's conceivable that the Mean Green could be the team that benefits. Summed into one composite number, UNT's team-sheet metrics are still on par with what one sees from a Wyoming or a Xavier. Stranger things have happened. (updated March 13)