Gonzaga has been No. 1 in the AP poll since day one of the season, the Zags are the only undefeated team in college basketball and they're the Las Vegas favorites to cut down the nets in the men's NCAA tournament.
So it shouldn't be a surprise that they're also the pick among coaches and scouts.
On Tuesday, I polled college coaches from all levels -- high-major, mid-major, low-major -- and NBA scouts to ask for their national championship predictions.
Here are the results of the 25 industry people polled:
Gonzaga has been the best team in the country all season, so it makes sense they received the majority of the votes.
"I think the question is more of why not?" one NBA scout said. "They have all that you want. Scorers, shot-makers, playmakers, the ultimate utility guy, post scorers, rebounders, size, toughness and coaching. I'm just not sure what hole they have."
"The Zags have the best offense, two lottery picks, multiple point guard options and enough firepower to survive any one guy having an off night," another executive said. "Pretty good tourney formula."
The one worry some people have -- even among the coaches picking them -- is their West Coast Conference schedule over the second half of the season.
"My only concern is that the competition has not been as good the last 2½ months," one coach said. "But I do think they're the most complete team."
Illinois has lost just once in the past two months, beating four 1- or 2-seeds in the last two weeks of the season. The Fighting Illini might have the most momentum entering the NCAA tournament, and they have the best closer in the sport in Ayo Dosunmu.
"I think they are playing great basketball right now," one coach said of the Illini. "They have multiple dynamic guards who can score and create, and they have a dominant inside presence in Kofi Cockburn."
The last of the teams to receive votes was Baylor, one of the top two teams in the country before some late-season struggles coming off a COVID-19 pause.
"They have experience and the best combination of three guards in the country," one coach said of the Bears. "[MaCio] Teague, [Davion] Mitchell and [Jared] Butler can all get their own shot and set up teammates at a high level. Pre-COVID, they were ridiculous defensively and played like a unit. I'm banking on them finding the magic again."
Perhaps Michigan would have joined the other three 1-seeds in receiving votes with a healthy Isaiah Livers, but according to the industry, only three teams are capable of cutting down the nets in three weeks.
Here's what else coaches and scouts are saying about this year's bracket.
Is Baylor still title-winning good?
Before Baylor went on a COVID-19 pause in early February, the Bears were up there with Gonzaga as the best two teams in the country. Since the Bears returned three weeks later, they are 5-2, with three of those wins coming by six points or fewer.
The bandwagon is emptying. Is that for good reason?
"They were a complete machine," one Big 12 coach said. "Now they're not guarding. They had a chance to go undefeated. They come back, they stink it up against Iowa State but win late. They thought that got their attention. Then they go to Kansas, thought they were going to show up and Kansas got 'em. The pause hurts you in so many different ways. Your rhythm is completely shot. They didn't have to look where they were throwing the ball before that. They know where everyone was gonna be. Defensively, they were absolutely smothering people. It was miserable to play against. They lost some competitive edge."
Another issue has been Baylor's role players struggling down the stretch. The inside duo of Flo Thamba and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua hasn't been as effective as it was earlier in the season, and Adam Flagler is struggling to make an impact off the bench. The perimeter trio of Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell and MaCio Teague has had to do a lot more.
"Those three guards are so damn good, so tough to deal with, let them do what they do. Shut off those other guys," an opposing coach said. "If Matt [Mayer] doesn't play well, they're not gonna go far. If those three guards are rolling and Matt's running around and dunking on people and playing like a 6-foot-9 guard, you can call it a night."
Baylor is going to run into some tests along the way -- especially on the interior, where the Bears have had some issues. A potential second-round matchup against North Carolina's elite post rotation would be difficult, as would a potential Sweet 16 battle against Trevion Williams and Purdue. And the other 1-seed on their side of the bracket is Illinois, home of All-American Kofi Cockburn.
"Flo isn't very big. Jonathan is even smaller than him. [Mark] Vital is even smaller than him," a coach said. "The big kid on Kansas State just had a field day with them. Flo couldn't handle him. Jonathan couldn't handle him. And Kofi is a whole different animal. He's mean, he's big and he's a scorer. And he's older. That's why I worry about them the most."
How far can Cade carry the Cowboys?
All eyes are on Cade Cunningham for the next few weeks. The Oklahoma State freshman is the likely No. 1 pick in this year's NBA draft, and he is playing as well as anyone in college basketball over the second half of the season. He has carried the Cowboys against the best of the best in the Big 12, and some of his late-game performances have been eye-opening.
If there's one player in this NCAA tournament that can have a Carmelo Anthony-like run, it's Cunningham.
"He has the maturity not to be fazed by the NCAA tournament," an opposing coach said. "Not shooting the ball a lot early doesn't affect him. So many young guys, if they don't get a shot in the first five minutes, they're mentally checked out. He doesn't have that approach to the game. He's smart enough to know he's gonna decide this game in the end anyway. If he has four points in the first half, it's not going to bother him. And he won't force it. He'll defer and make the right play. That's what makes him special. He trusts his own game to make the right play. That's very rare. Not only is he the go-to guy, but he's the set-up guy."
Cunningham will be the focus of every scouting report, but he has been that way all season and it hasn't made much of a difference. He has been held to single digits in points just once all season, back in early January against Kansas State. How do you stop him?
"Stay underneath him. Don't try to get it out of his hands, because he's going to keep the ball moving and find an open guy. He has an innate ability to make a play," one coach said. "Stay under him, be physical with him on the bounce. Don't try to hard-trap him, because he'll find Avery Anderson for a wide-open shot or one of the twins will have an open dive to the rim."
Oklahoma State was perhaps the most underseeded team in the tournament, receiving a 4-seed despite having the second-most Quadrant 1 wins in the country. So the Cowboys will be motivated; but the key will be the supporting cast. If Cunningham is kept under wraps, the role guys have to step up.
"If Isaac [Likekele] was fully healthy, the supporting cast is good enough to get a win," a Big 12 coach said. "To not have him healthy, and for this to be all of their first trips to the tournament, the jitters and all that stuff could affect them. They're first-timers. Cade is a phenom. He'll get attention from the defense. The other guys have to produce."
NBA scouts' watch list
There's no Ja Morant vs. Markus Howard in this season's first round, no matchup that grabs eyeballs of fans and scouts alike as soon as it's announced, but there are still several intriguing personnel battles that NBA front offices are looking forward to this weekend.
I polled several executives to get their most anticipated matchups.
Oregon's Chris Duarte vs. VCU's Nah'Shon "Bones" Hyland received the most votes. Both Duarte and Hyland are ranked inside the top 50 of ESPN's NBA draft rankings.
"There's just not a great NBA matchup better than that between a guy on each team," one executive said.
Up next was UConn's James Bouknight against Maryland. Bouknight was the highest-ranked returning draft prospect entering the season, and while he has battled injuries at times this season, he is still a projected lottery pick. And the Terrapins will look to counter him with Darryl Morsell, the Big Ten defensive player of the year.
"I'm excited to watch Bouknight versus maybe the toughest perimeter defender he's seen all season," a scout said.
Another matchup to receive multiple mentions was UNC Greensboro's Isaiah Miller going up against Scottie Barnes and Florida State. Miller will likely face several different defenses and individual defenders, and it's going to be something he hasn't seen in the Southern Conference all season.
"Miller is going to have to get his jumper going for his Spartans to have any chance, but this is the type of test that we are looking to see as far as what Miller can do up against similar athletes and length that he might see at our level," one scout said.
One more matchup to earn a mention was Loyola Chicago's Cameron Krutwig vs. Georgia Tech's Moses Wright.
It could get better later in the weekend, though, depending on which teams move on. A potential lottery battle between Cade Cunningham and Keon Johnson could be in the cards.
"I'm praying for Oklahoma State vs. Tennessee in the second round," one scout said.
Winthrop: The popular 12-seed upset pick
If not for a two-point home loss to UNC Asheville in late January, Winthrop might have been a bigger piece of the national discussion this season. The Eagles went 20-1 during the regular season and then dominated the Big South Conference tournament, winning all three games by at least 20 points.
On Selection Sunday, they were drawn across from 5-seed Villanova, which has dropped two in a row since the loss of star point guard Collin Gillespie. As a result, the popular 12-over-5 upset pick this year looks like it will be Winthrop over the Wildcats.
Are the Eagles good enough to do it?
"They're talented enough," one opposing coach said. "They play a unique style that's really hard to duplicate. Villanova hasn't played anyone like Winthrop in terms of style of play. It's different, man. They're extremely aggressive offensively, every single second. It's an aggressive attack. They attack off made baskets; they attack to offensive rebound. It's always attack mode."
Two key players for the Eagles are 6-foot-7 point guard Chandler Vaudrin and 6-foot-9 big man D.J. Burns Jr., a former ESPN 100 prospect who originally committed to Tennessee out of high school. Vaudrin had three triple-doubles this season and averaged 12.2 points, 7.2 rebounds and 6.9 assists, while Burns is coming off a 22-point effort in the conference tournament title game.
"Vaudrin is as unique a player as there is in the country," one Big South coach said. "He's big, he can really handle the basketball, he can really pass and see the floor. He'll back you down, and if you don't come help, he'll go and score. If you help, he'll move the ball around. Burns is capable of scoring on anyone. Not a lot of low to mids have somebody you can park around the basket and say, go score one for us. He's capable of doing that."
If Winthrop loses, why will it happen? Well, it's only happened once, but that game against Asheville offers some hints. The Eagles shot 3-for-20 from 3, had just four assists on 22 made baskets and only scored 55 points. Moreover, they only had one extended run, a 13-2 stretch midway through the second half.
"You have to weather their runs," a coach said. "They put two, three, four quick stretches together and a five-point lead goes to 17 goes to 30."
How much will Michigan miss Isaiah Livers?
It was only about three weeks ago when Michigan was considered in the same conversation as Gonzaga when it came to national title contenders. Then the Wolverines got blown out by Illinois in Ann Arbor, lost at Michigan State to end the season and fell to Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament. Along the way, they lost Isaiah Livers to a stress injury in his foot -- and the senior forward is out indefinitely.
"He's an excellent catch-and-shoot player," one opposing coach said. "He spaces the floor for them in early offense. Runs to the 3-point line. Helps to open up the floor in the half-court for [Hunter] Dickinson on rolls and [Mike] Smith to get in the lane because he's such a knockdown shooter. Very good cutter to the rim without the ball. Wants to score. You have to have some off-ball awareness to deal with his cutting, he gets on the offensive glass some."
Livers battled injuries for much of last season, and Michigan was just 6-6 without him.
"Why he helps them so much is last year they didn't have enough scoring with him out of the game, and his 3-point shooting made the game easier for everyone," another coach said. "It's the same kind of thing this year. [Franz] Wagner has shot it better recently, but when you have all those guys out there, it becomes really hard to tag rolls and protect the paint and still close out to shooters. Hunter is too big to switch pick-and-roll and keep you out of rotations. It works hand in hand."
It's unclear when Livers will return, but Michigan shouldn't have an issue with either Wagner or Texas Southern in the first round. A second-round game against a hot LSU team or Atlantic 10 champion St. Bonaventure could pose issues, however.
Who is Jason Preston and can Ohio beat Virginia?
Virginia is one of the biggest talking points entering the tournament -- mostly because the Cavaliers won't travel to Indianapolis until Friday due to COVID-19 issues and will likely only practice once or twice as a team before facing Ohio on Saturday night. The Bobcats have received some buzz over the past few days after running through the Mid-American Conference tournament behind stellar performances from star guard Jason Preston.
Preston, who went from scoring 52 points as a high school senior to showing up on NBA draft boards, has as much potential as anyone to be this year's breakout March star.
"Preston is clearly the best player in the game," one MAC coach said. "He's deceptively quick, he's long. He plays so nonchalant, he's quirky, he jumps in the air and makes passes -- on time, to the right guy. On film, you can get the vibe that he can't do this or that, and then the game starts and he's got 18 and 5 and it's not even halftime. He's 6-5, he puts you on his hip. Gets into the lane and hits floaters. They're going to post him up."
Is Preston enough to beat Virginia? On paper, it might seem like Ohio should be heavy underdogs. After all, the Bobcats finished fifth in the MAC. But they've won nine of their past 10 games and have one of the most efficient offenses in mid-major basketball. One player to watch is 6-foot-8 Ben Vander Plas, who one coach said is a "Virginia-type player" and went for 26 points, eight rebounds and seven assists in the MAC semifinals.
Preston will have a size advantage over Virginia's 5-foot-9 point guard Kihei Clark, so Tony Bennett could use one of his bigger guards to deal with Preston on several possessions. As one MAC coach said, Ohio isn't great defensively and will try to outscore opponents. Can that work against a high-level defensive team such as Virginia that also is efficient offensively?
"Preston will get his points, but you have to keep him from getting 10 to 12 assists," one coach said. "Virginia packs things in, keeps things tight. Preston is so elite in ball screens, and he gets guys open 3s. You gotta beat Virginia by making 3s, and Ohio has guys that can make 3s. It's a great matchup."
My picks
I don't generally like going chalky in the Final Four, but I've thought Gonzaga, Baylor and Illinois were a cut above the rest of the country for most of the season. All three were in my preseason Final Four, and I picked all three to win their conference tournaments. So I'm riding with those three 1-seeds in the Final Four. But what else?
Final Four: Gonzaga, Texas, Baylor, Illinois
Title game: Gonzaga over Baylor
Double-digit first-round upset picks:
No. 11 Michigan State over No. 6 BYU
No. 12 Winthrop over No. 5 Villanova
No. 13 North Texas over No. 4 Purdue
No. 11 Syracuse over No. 6 San Diego State
No. 10 Rutgers over No. 7 Clemson
I have No. 7 Oregon, No. 8 LSU and No. 12 Winthrop advancing to the Sweet 16.
Good luck filling out your brackets!
Leftovers
Mean Green gaining steam?
North Texas won four games in four days to win the Conference USA tournament -- and the Mean Green also are battle-tested after playing three power conference teams plus Loyola Chicago in the nonconference schedule.
"They play slow and methodical," one opposing coach said. "If you haven't played them, you're gonna look up in the second media timeout and it's gonna be 11-9. They control the pace. If they're up 10, it just feels like a lot more."
In a different matchup, against a team that likes to push the tempo, North Texas might be a prime upset pick. But the Mean Green drew a tough Purdue squad in the first round, a team that is used to playing slow.
"Purdue is big. That's North Texas' downfall, and they go through spurts not being able to score," one opposing coach said. "If they were playing a Villanova type, I could see it. I think it'll be a five-, six-point game, but Purdue holds on."
New blood vs. blue blood?
If North Carolina gets by Wisconsin in the first round, the Tar Heels could be a tough draw for Baylor. Carolina is the nation's best offensive rebounding team, while Baylor ranked eighth in the Big 12 in defensive rebounding percentage. The problem for Carolina could be its inconsistent guard play with Caleb Love running the show. Love has had great games (including both contests against Duke), but he also has had turnover issues, which doesn't bode well against the Bears. Baylor has elite on-ball defenders on the perimeter and ranks third nationally in defensive turnover percentage.
40 minutes of Wildcat
Abilene Christian might not beat Texas, but the Longhorns are going to be in for a hellacious 40 minutes. The Wildcats lead the nation in defensive turnover percentage and are in the top five in steal percentage.
"They pressure the entire time," one coach said. "And they're the best charge-taking team in the country. That's their DNA."
Miller in motion?
UNC Greensboro has an elite guard in Isaiah Miller, but Florida State's size and length make it a difficult matchup for the Spartans.
"Switching will bother them. I'm sure they'll try and take out Miller, which they should, and beat them up on the glass," one coach said. "UNCG has got to find a way to move the help so they drive the ball. They have to make shots. They have to get in transition, which you can do, and you can turn them over. Motion teams bother Florida State. They want you to stand on offense."
Florida State generally has success against teams that try to out-athlete them -- mostly because very few teams can. According to coaches who faced the Seminoles, UNCG will have to be patient offensively and make Florida State guard for extended periods. One coach pointed out that the teams with the most success offensively against the Seminoles this season ran more deliberate offenses, whether motion, Princeton or something else.
"Motion messes with them because their heads are turned trying to find the switch. So the help is either late or not there," he said. "You gotta drive to pass the first drive. Put them in scramble on the kick out."
Tigers geaux for upset in round two?
Multiple coaches are intrigued by a potential Michigan vs. LSU matchup in the second round. Michigan will likely be without Isaiah Livers, and LSU was playing as well as anyone in the country during the SEC tournament.
"LSU has three elite players," one coach said.
"LSU got screwed," another coach said, referring to the Tigers being an 8-seed. "But they're 6-3 to 6-7 across the board. All switchable. Cam Thomas, Trendon Watford, Ja'Vonte Smart."