Every year -- except last year, when the coronavirus pandemic sent everybody home to wear sweatpants for a year -- I am on the air during the NCAA tournament selection show when the bracket is finally revealed. Upon my first view of the bracket, our bosses demand that I provide my winners to each game. And I do it within five minutes of first seeing the bracket, so our fabulous graphics professionals can build my picks to reveal on screen, to serve the fan.
As my bosses demand my immediate selections for the 68-team bracket, smoking cigarettes and sipping cognac in the back of the control room while savagely barking out orders as if in a 1970s newsroom, I feverishly scribble my picks while pleading for more time like a Charles Dickens character.
"Please, sir, can I have some more time to think?"
The answer is a bellowing, "No, you overpaid but incredibly handsome and erudite analyst. Give us your picks and shut your magnificent pie hole. You can think later, while you are being pilloried on social media for making such unthinking choices under stress."
Well, what you have before you now is the result of leaving the smoke-filled studio environment. Away from my demanding bosses, I can now think and use my big brain and extensive basketball knowledge to provide you with the definitive bracket prognostication known to planet Earth. In this guide to riches and satisfaction through beating your friends in the office pool, I will provide you with locks, near locks, upset alerts and sure-thing upsets in this year's bracket. Use this and you will be popping bottles of bubbly after the games in the NCAA bubble.
The discussion of who is in and who is out is over. The complaining about seeding and selection, an annual fun fest, will go on for a few days but then wither away. Now, all we are left with is the bracket for this season so impacted by COVID-19. If you take the advice of this magnificent tome, you will win your office pool and then sit by the pool with a drink in your hand.
So here you have it, the "More than Five Minute" Bracket. You're welcome.
West: 'Been there, done that' region
First Round
No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 16 Norfolk State Spartans/Appalachian State Mountaineers
The Zags have won 30 straight games dating back to last season and have 23 straight double-digit wins this year -- all but one of Gonzaga's wins have come by double digits. Gonzaga is a very good defensive team, especially with freshman phenom Jalen Suggs making defensive plays. Get a good look at Suggs, because he is special. From the long passes, anticipation steals, athletic defensive plays, competitive spirit, shot-making and winning attitude, this man can flat-out play. But this is also a true team, with an elite offense that does not run plays as much as it makes the right play in balletic fashion. Gonzaga doesn't read music -- it plays by ear. It isn't choreographed -- it is free-flowing and instinctive. Corey Kispert is the best jump-shooter in the country; Drew Timme has the best footwork of any big man in the nation; Suggs is an NBA lottery pick. But that is not all. Joel Ayayi is a triple-double-getting rebounder, defender and passer. Andrew Nembhard is a screen-and-roll savant. This is just the fifth team since Indiana won it all in 1976 to reach the NCAA tournament without a loss. Gonzaga ain't losing to a 16. Ain't happening.
Winner: Gonzaga
No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 9 Missouri Tigers
The Sooners are very good and have wins over Alabama, Kansas, Texas and West Virginia. Austin Reaves is a complete player who can score, handle and pass. Missouri has a good inside-outside balance with Xavier Pinson and Jeremiah Tilmon but is not as consistent offensively as Oklahoma. I like the Sooners in a coin flip.
Winner: Oklahoma
No. 5 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 12 UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
The Bluejays stunk against Georgetown. Still, this is a good team and one that can make a run as a 5-seed. Creighton has a great point guard in Marcus Zegarowski. He is the engine that runs everything. He averages a team-leading 15 points, but he can bust out for more, as he did when he dropped 32 against Butler at the end of the year. Mitch Ballock, the smooth-shooting lefty, is one of the five best shooters in the country. Wings Damien Jefferson and Denzel Mahoney are productive and can both score, rebound and defend. Ballock, Zegarowski and Mahoney have each hit over 60 3s on the season. Big man Christian Bishop has improved greatly this season, averaging better than 11 points and shooting over 68% from the floor. Bishop is far more than an acrobatic lob threat; he is a player. But ... beware the Gauchos. This is a dangerous team. UCSB is solid defensively and has a really good guard in JaQuori McLaughlin, a 6-foot-4 senior who had 22 points against UC Irvine in the Big West title game.
Winner: UC Santa Barbara
No. 4 Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. 13 Ohio Bobcats
Who knows how the Cavaliers will handle the unfortunate end to their ACC tournament, where they exited because of COVID-19? Virginia has a much more efficient offense than defense, which is a bit unusual. The strength of this team is in its frontcourt. Jay Huff, Sam Hauser and Trey Murphy III have accounted for almost the entire 3-point attack. The way to beat Virginia is to stay with that trio of shooters, and force Kihei Clark to penetrate and finish at the rim over you rather than help and provide him opportunities to pitch it to a shooter. Make Clark score 30. Make Virginia become a one-on-one team, rather than a team that runs offense. Ohio is very good; it can win. Point guard Jason Preston is the LaMelo Ball of college hoops. He is a great passer and averages 16 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists, while shooting over 50% from the floor. He can play anywhere. He will play in the NBA after being a first-round draft choice. This is an upset alert. The safe thing to do is to put Virginia forward. But this upset is happening.
Winner: Ohio
No. 6 USC Trojans vs. No. 11 Wichita State Shockers/Drake Bulldogs
One of the scariest and most underrated teams in the field is USC. The Trojans have a superstar in Evan Mobley. He was the Pac-12 Player of the Year, Freshman of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year. He is the first player in Pac-12 history to sweep that trio of awards and only the second major conference player ever to do so, along with Kentucky's Anthony Davis in 2012. He also made the Pac-12 All-Freshman team, but that seems like overkill. Mobley is a future NBA lottery pick. He is not a stretch big, but he is versatile, skilled, a good passer, ridiculously talented and athletic. He is a fabulous shotblocker who can also shoot the ball with touch. Utah doubled him on the catch early in the season. That was one of the only games in which he struggled a bit. Otherwise, Mobley has been stellar. Then, in the Pac-12 tournament, Mobley torched Utah for 26 points, 9 rebounds and 5 blocks. Isaiah Mobley forms a potent 1-2 punch with Evan. Drew Peterson is a versatile handler and passer who can see over defenses, grab and go. Plus, he defends well. Tahj Eaddy, the Santa Clara transfer who had 24 points against Oregon, and Ethan Anderson are good shooters with point guard skills. Anderson is the best on-ball defender. USC can defend at the rim (No. 12 in the nation in field goal percentage defense), offensive rebound and come at you in waves. USC is young in spots, but allows opponents to shoot only 42% inside the arc. Drake is without Roman Penn for the tournament. Wichita State should beat the Bulldogs to take on USC, but I don't think the Shockers will shock the Trojans.
Winner: USC
No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 14 Eastern Washington Eagles
The Jayhawks had the bottom fall out in the Big 12 tournament. First, David McCormack was out for the duration. Then Kansas was out for the duration because of COVID-19. The Jayhawks are good, but this is not the usual, uber-talented Kansas team that can overwhelm. This team cannot do that. Early in the season, observers opined that coach Bill Self should scrap the big-guy-in-the-middle thing and go small. Self would not -- and he was right. McCormack has been outstanding in the second half of the season, leading Kansas with his double-doubles and consistent production, rebounding and rim protection. He was voted the Big 12's Most Improved Player and is perhaps the key to Kansas advancing. Ochai Agbaji is the leading scorer; he was an alpha at the Big 12 tournament, scoring 26 points against Oklahoma when McCormack was out. Jalen Wilson is the Jayhawks' leading rebounder. Marcus Garrett remains the best perimeter defender in the league. Kansas has improved its defense in Big 12 play by zoning up on ball screen coverages, but KU is still subject to some scoring droughts.
Winner: Kansas
No. 7 Oregon Ducks vs. No. VCU Rams
I love this game. Sophomore guard Nah'Shon "Bones" Hyland is the Atlantic 10 Player of the Year after leading the league in scoring at 19.4 points per game. Hyland scores in a variety of ways, but his 3-point shooting sets him apart. He connects on a trio of 3s per game, has scored 30 points or more three times and 20 or more 11 times. Lefty Vince Williams, a 6-6 wing, is another All-A-10 player. He hit more than 40 treys on the season and is an excellent free throw shooter. VCU is good offensively, but elite on the defensive end. The Rams force a turnover on 24% of opponents' possessions, which is among the best in the nation. The problem is, the Rams turn the ball over on 21% of their possessions, which is among the bottom third of Division I. Oregon, the Pac-12 regular-season champion, has won 11 of 12. A couple of pauses and some injuries slowed the Ducks' progress, but they have caught up. The Ducks can shoot it, led by Chris Duarte, a versatile, strong guard who can rebound and drive. Duarte is also a terrific defender. Will Richardson returned from injury. The lefty is a terrific shooter who can also get shots for others. Richardson is getting more and more aggressive, and that opens up the floor. Eric Williams Jr., another lefty, is an outstanding on-ball defender and a mismatch. He is a productive rebounder and can hit multiple 3s in a game. In fact, Williams hit nine 3s in a game when he played at Duquesne. A real key will be Eugene Omoruyi, a transfer from Rutgers. He has shown great ability to make plays near the rim and finish through contact. Omoruyi is tough and can get you 30. LJ Figueroa is an energy giver who is the best overall defender and a good scorer. Oregon can make a deep run.
Winner: Oregon
No. 2 Iowa Hawkeyes vs. No. 15 Grand Canyon Antelopes
The Hawkeyes have almost everything ... except health heading into the NCAA tournament. Jack Nunge, a valuable reserve big man who can step away and shoot, and Joe Wieskamp turned an ankle against Wisconsin to scare the heck out of everyone wearing black and gold. Wieskamp is one of the most-skilled and versatile players in the country. He is a future NBA player who averages over 15 points and 6 rebounds and is a perfect complement to Luka Garza, who will win the Wooden Award. Garza has been spectacular all season -- to the point of being so good it's almost boring. Garza handles double-teams, physical play, being attacked by opposing offenses -- it doesn't matter. He handles it and produces -- every game. Plus the Hawkeyes have Jordan Bohannon, the all-time leading 3-point shooter and assist man at Iowa, CJ Fredrick, a great shooter and passer who never turns it over, and Connor McCaffery, a guard who turns it over even less frequently than Frederick. Keegan Murray is an active, lengthy, rangy defender and runner who impacts the game without ever needing a play run for him. Iowa runs fabulous offense and is a beautiful team to watch. Grand Canyon has had a great year, winning the WAC regular-season title and conference tournament.
Winner: Iowa
Second Round
Gonzaga vs. Oklahoma
The Zags score too many points for Oklahoma to match.
Winner: Gonzaga
Ohio vs. UC Santa Barbara
This is the part of the bracket that gets blown up a bit. Ohio has history and Preston, the LaMelo of the bracket.
Winner: Ohio
Kansas vs. USC
Without the COVID-19 struggles, I would expect Kansas to beat USC because of experience. However, I favor USC in this one because of the Trojans' rim protection and the star power of Evan Mobley.
Winner: USC
Iowa vs. Oregon
If I were the Hawkeyes, this game would scare the hell out of me. But since Iowa is so good on the offensive end, I am taking the Hawkeyes over the Ducks. This is, however, an upset alert.
Winner: Iowa
Sweet 16
Gonzaga vs. Ohio
This is where it ends for Ohio. Gonzaga is just too good, Think about it: Gonzaga has already played the Nos. 2, 3 and 4 seeds in this region and beaten them all -- badly. Gonzaga will beat Ohio, too.
Winner: Gonzaga
Iowa vs. USC
This will be a great matchup between Luka Garza and Evan Mobley. Iowa's experience and changing defenses make the difference in this one. Iowa will move on to play Gonzaga for the Final Four.
Winner: Iowa
Elite Eight
Gonzaga vs. Iowa
These two teams played in December and Gonzaga won handily. It will be a tougher game this time, but Gonzaga will win again. The Zags get too many layups and have too many weapons. The Zags return to the Final Four for the first time since 2017.
Winner: Gonzaga
East: The 'scary potential' region
No. 1 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 16 Mount Saint Mary's Mountaineers/Texas Southern Tigers
The Wolverines are on the top tier of the game, right along with Gonzaga and Baylor. Michigan has size, length on the wings and physicality on both ends. That physicality is important. Last year, Michigan could score but was easier to score upon. This season, the Wolverines are grittier, tougher, nastier and more prideful on the defensive end and on the glass. On offense, the ball movement is exemplary; Michigan runs great actions to get the ball to cutters on the run. Isaiah Livers and Franz Wagner are both future NBA wings. Hunter Dickinson is an old-school big man who can play with his back to the hoop and protect the rim. Eli Brooks is a terrific defender. Mike Smith is a terrific point guard who can pass and run pick-and-roll with great pace. Michigan had a couple of hiccups in losses to Illinois and Michigan State, but otherwise a near-flawless season. Getting away from the Big Ten grinders may help Michigan and show the rest of the country just how tough the Big Ten has been this season. As the No. 4 seed in the NEC, Mount St. Mary's was not expected to win the NEC's automatic bid. Yet a win over Bryant, the No. 1 seed, put the Mountaineers in the NCAA tournament. Jalen Gibbs leads the way with 16.5 points per game, but there is little chance of Mount St. Mary's advancing, especially given the propensity to turn the ball over and its low shooting percentages. Only one 16-seed has ever advanced in the NCAA tournament. Don't expect another here.
Winner: Michigan
No. 8 LSU Tigers vs. No. 9 St. Bonaventure Bonnies
LSU can be scary good. After not guarding a soul for the first couple of months, the Tigers are mixing defenses, guarding the ball and scoring off their defense. There are athletic and talented weapons at every position. Cam Thomas is a great shooter who averages 23 points. Trendon Watford is versatile and can rebound. Javonte Smart is a scoring point who can distribute. And when Darius Days scores in double figures, LSU is 18-2. LSU can match up with Michigan -- the Tigers are just not as efficient or tough. The Fighting Woj Bombs can play. The Bonnies' Mark Schmidt, the A-10 Coach of the Year who played at Boston College for Gary Williams, has built a consistent winner. St. Bonaventure believes. This is another team built on defense and rebounding, led by some very good guards and a big guy who can block shots and control the paint on the defensive end. Kyle Lofton is among the Atlantic 10's assist leaders with a low error rate. He was a first-team All-Atlantic 10 selection after a great season leading the Bonnies. Jaren Holmes is among the A-10's top shooters, leading the league in 3-point percentage. He played especially well in league play. Holmes put up 38 points against St. Joe's. He is complemented well by Jalen Adaway, who crashes the glass for second shots. Inside, Osun Osunniyi is the A-10 Defensive Player of the Year and among the better rebounders and shot blockers in the nation. He is also a good finisher and capable passer. He led the league in blocked shots and is the first conference Defensive Player of the Year in St. Bonaventure history. To lose, LSU needs to take the Bonnies lightly. It won't.
Winner: LSU
No. 5 Colorado Buffaloes vs. No. 12 Georgetown Hoyas
This is an upset alert. Georgetown is long and athletic. It is the best 3-point shooting team in the Big East. But Colorado is the better team -- and the more consistent team. The Hoyas are on a nice run and are a hot team. Colorado is methodical, and methodical can win in tournament play. Colorado has an excellent point guard in McKinley Wright IV, an experienced winner who can play in the open court and also drive the ball, seek out defenders to draw contact and get to the foul line. Wright is a good passer, solid finisher and great competitor. Junior big man Evan Battey is a skilled player with a big body. He draws fouls and knocks down free throws at a high rate. Nobody plays harder and with more passion for the game and his teammates than Battey. Jeriah Horne is the Buffs' best shooter, hitting over 44% from deep. Along with Eli Parquet, he is the Buff's best defender. Colorado leads the nation in free-throw percentage, hitting over 83 percent of its attempts. Colorado does not have a stellar nonconference résumé, but this is a Top 25 team at both ends of the floor. Georgetown is a trendy upset pick. I like Colorado.
Winner: Colorado
No. 4 Florida State Seminoles vs. No. 13 UNC Greensboro Spartans
The Seminoles switch everything on defense -- Positions 1 through 5. They switch up to take things away. That is so disruptive. Florida State does not allow opponents to run offense, so you have to have playmakers rather than run plays. But what sets this team apart is its shooting ability -- and there are several different deep shooters. M.J. Walker and RaiQuan Gray are the best and most consistent players, but Florida State runs so many bodies at you, it looks like a line change in a hockey game -- except the Seminoles are more physical. Florida State can have some turnover issues, which is the one thing that can bounce them early. UNC Greensboro presses and comes after you, forcing turnovers at a 21% clip. However, the downside is lack of perimeter shooting, as the Spartans shoot only 30% from deep. Wes Miller is only 38 years old, yet he has been a successful head coach for a decade now. The former Tar Heels guard played on North Carolina's 2005 national championship team and has built a consistent winner in the Southern Conference. But the Miller opponents really have to worry about is Isaiah Miller, the 6-foot star of the Spartans. He is the two-time SoCon Player of the Year (the first two-time POY since Steph Curry) and two-time SoCon Defensive Player of the Year. Miller put up 25 points, 10 rebounds and 6 assists against Mercer, the first time a point guard had done that since Damian Lillard did it at Weber State. Miller is dynamic and has a 40-inch vertical leap. He is not a shooter, but he is a scorer, averaging 19 points, 6.9 rebounds and 2.5 steals. With a player like Miller, UNC Greensboro can cause some problems. That said, Miller is the only Spartan averaging double figures.
Winner: Florida State
No 6 BYU Cougars vs. No. 11 Michigan State Spartans/UCLA Bruins
The Cougars are good, but seeded too high and not quite as good as last year's BYU team. Matt Haarms is the headliner. The 7-3 transfer from Purdue has been a very good rim protector, rebounder and finisher. BYU has some versatile wings who can slash and rebound, and guards Brandon Averette and Alex Barcello can both score and distribute. Averette started his career at Oklahoma State and averages over 11 points and almost 4 assists. Barcello started his career at Arizona and averages almost 16 points and 5 assists, hitting just about 50% from deep. BYU does a great job of passing, cutting and moving the ball, although it can turn it over a little too much. Michigan State has been a puzzle all season long. Different issues at different times, but Michigan State could never seem to stabilize things. Rather, it was a roller-coaster ride. The "ups" were wins over two No. 1 seeds and a No. 2 seed, plus victories over Duke, Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan. The assist rate has been exemplary. Aaron Henry has emerged as a consistent All-Big Ten performer. Joshua Langford has been healthy and productive. The "downs" were too numerous to mention, but whether turnovers, point-guard issues, shooting woes, defensive inconsistencies or player inconsistencies, Michigan State had very little to suggest an identity resembling anything we had come to know in the past. Can Michigan State beat UCLA? Yes. The keys will be the guard spot and Joey Hauser. UCLA runs good offense but does not defend as well as Mick Cronin would like. That is the difference between the first weekend and the second in the NCAA tournament. The Bruins need to stand their ground, fight for position and avoid late clock breakdowns. Tyger Campbell, an All-Pac-12 selection, is the strong, tough, point guard who runs the show. Jaime Jaquez is a hard-playing wing who can really shoot it. Johnny Juzang has blossomed after transferring from Kentucky. If UCLA gets stops, the Bruins can win.
Winner: Michigan State beats UCLA and then beats BYU
No. 3 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 14 Abilene Christian Wildcats
The Longhorns are very good and on a high after a first-ever Big 12 tourney title. They have excellent guards in lefty Matt Coleman III, Andrew Jones and Courtney Ramey, the team's heart and soul. All three can take -- and make -- the big shot at the end of a game. All three are competitors. Texas has closed out games this season and been unafraid to make the pressure plays and decisions. Up front, Jericho Sims and Greg Brown are incredibly athletic and can defend, rebound and finish plays above the rim. Brown is expected to be a "one-and-done" player. He has been a wild card, someone who can have great moments and freshman moments. The things that can trip up Texas are turnovers and free throw shooting. In close games, which Texas has had all year, those two areas have been a big difference. Texas has beaten North Carolina, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Oklahoma and Kansas (twice). Texas scores with greater ease this season. It does so without sacrificing defense. Plus, Texas is playing faster, getting it up court quickly and attacking -- or "answering back." Texas will not shrink in the first round.
Winner: Texas
No. 7 UConn Huskies vs. No. 10 Maryland Terrapins
Crab cakes and defense: That's what Maryland does! The Terps don't have the same rim protection as in past years, but they do have Darryl Morsell, the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year. Plus, they have a gritty attitude that has carried them through a brutal Big Ten schedule. Aaron Wiggins, Eric Ayala and Donta Scott have each hit over 44 3-point field goals. There is not much margin for error, as Maryland does not generate turnovers and does not consistently get second shots. But Maryland fights. UConn has a star in James Bouknight, a prototype NBA guard. Bouknight had been out due to injury early in the season, and the coach-speak phrase that "he will come back to a better team" actually rings true here. The Huskies had multiple players step forward and accept more responsibility. Bouknight, who grew up a baseball player and only committed to basketball after having Tommy John surgery recommended, is a three-level scorer who is creative, explosive and productive. He is quick with the ball and can get his own shot. Isaiah Whaley is an excellent defender and shot-blocker, so much that he was named Big East Defensive Player of the Year. Whaley is a solid rebounder who helps anchor the top-scoring defense in the Big East. Tyler Polley, a senior along with Whaley, is the Big East Sixth Man of the Year. He comes in to provide leadership, defense and timely 3-point shooting. UConn was on a roll heading into the Big East tournament. The Huskies are good, but Maryland is tougher. Winner: Maryland
No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 15 Iona Gaels
The Tide are long, athletic and swarming. Whether it is ball-screen coverages, guarding the ball, taking charges or rebounding the misses they force, the Tide are competitive at the highest level at both ends of the floor. Alabama can shoot the ball from every position. It is very dangerous in transition. Herb Jones, the long point-forward who can rip-and-run, pass and facilitate, gets everything started. Jones can initiate offense and can be moved all over the floor. John Petty Jr. is a deep-range shooter and good rebounding guard. Jaden Shackelford is another elite shooter. The injury to Joshua Primo against Mississippi State was scary. Primo is one of the best freshmen in the country; he can defend and make shots. Jones is a do-it-all defender. Alabama wants three things first: free throws, at-the-rim 2-point attempts and step-in 3-point attempts. The Tide average 11 made 3s a game. They can go higher than that. Iona is in the tournament for the fifth straight year, but even with Rick Pitino coaching scorers Isaiah Ross and Asante Gist, the Gaels cannot beat Alabama. Winner: Alabama
Second round
Michigan vs. LSU
The Wolverines are better defensively and more disciplined at both ends. Even if Livers isn't back from a foot injury he sustained during the Big Ten tournament, I favor Michigan to win. LSU is scary talented, but Michigan is better.
Winner: Michigan
Florida State vs. Colorado
The Buffs are the more methodical team, but Florida State is more talented. The only thing that scares you about the Seminoles is turnovers. Florida State threw it all over the yard against Georgia Tech and North Carolina. If it does that against Colorado, the Buffs win. I think Florida State will clean that up in Indy and win.
Winner: Florida State
Texas vs. Michigan State
The Longhorns seem to have a special vibe. Can Michigan State capture its usual March magic? Sure. But Texas is significantly better and has guard stability.
Winner: Texas
Alabama vs. Maryland
These are similar defenses that are difficult to score upon, even without rim protection. But Alabama can score and has Herb Jones. Alabama wins.
Winner: Alabama
Sweet 16
Michigan vs. Florida State
This will be a great game, but the Wolverines' offense will take advantage of the Seminoles' switching.
Winner: Michigan
Alabama vs. Texas
Perhaps the best of the Sweet 16 matchups. This one can be scary good. I like Alabama to win, because the Tide can stretch out the Longhorns and can guard them up front. Sims will be a key. If he plays like he did in the Big 12 tournament, Texas will move on. But ... I think Alabama will win this one.
Winner: Alabama
Elite Eight
Michigan vs. Alabama
Unless Livers is back at full strength, I like the Tide to win this one. Alabama cannot get down early to this team, which has happened in a few games this season. Dickinson will be a major issue for Alabama, but he has to guard the Tide's perimeter-oriented frontcourt as well. I like Alabama to end it for the No. 1 seed.
Winner: Alabama
South: The 'name brand' region
No. 1 Baylor Bears vs. No. 16 Hartford Hawks
The Bears are the top 3-point shooting team in the country (43%) and one of the top scoring teams in the country (85 PPG). Baylor, though, still sets itself apart with its ability to defend, switch and disrupt. With so many talented, versatile defenders, Baylor can pressure the ball, get into passing lanes, protect the rim and limit opponents' ability to run any coherent offense. Jared Butler is the best shooter, scorer and two-way player. He is the Big 12 leader in steals and is second in the league in assists -- behind teammate Davion Mitchell. Mitchell is a great point guard, one who can pressure the ball, get up under ball handlers and take opposing scoring guards out of games altogether. MaCio Teague is another scorer and defender who can take over in a given game, as evidenced by his 35-point outburst against Texas Tech. In that one, he hit 10 3s. Mark Vital and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua defend, rebound and run. Baylor has a truly complete, unselfish, deep and connected team. Hartford has had a wonderful ride, but Baylor is too good to be upset as a No. 1. No way.
Winner: Baylor
No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. No. 9 Wisconsin Badgers
The Tar Heels are the best offensive rebounding team in the country, leading the nation by grabbing 41% of misses. The Heels miss quite a bit but are getting better. Roy Williams likes to have a balanced attack, with good interior threats complemented by good outside shooting. But with such young guards in Caleb Love and RJ Davis, North Carolina has had shooting and turnover problems. That has not only impacted its offense, but its defense. With big men Armando Bacot, Day'Ron Sharpe, Garrison Brooks and the rapidly improving Walker Kessler, UNC can bring in big body after big body and wear you down. Unless guards Davis, Love and sharpshooter Kerwin Walton can knock down perimeter shots, defenses will pack it in on the Carolina bigs. For Carolina to win in Indy, there can be nothing soft. Meanwhile, no team needs to get out of conference play more than Wisconsin. Even though the Badgers are older and more experienced than almost anyone, the Big Ten grind has been difficult for this team. Wisconsin has played well and lost, and that is wearisome for any team. The Badgers have won only four of the past 12 games heading into the Big Ten tournament, but the quality of opponent and the quality of play in the losses is stunning. Wisconsin has five seniors who are versatile and know who they are. Still, the losses seem to have shaken their confidence a bit. But once into the NCAA tournament, I like Wisconsin to find a new vibe and punch first against some new blood. Micah Potter is the best player. The Ohio State transfer is skilled, versatile and can post or step out and knock down a perimeter jumper. Nate Reuvers is a good defender who blocks shots. Brad Davison is a competitor who crashes, cuts and takes charges. Aleem Ford is versatile and can isolate for a 3 or a drive. Jonathan Davis is an athletic, versatile and bouncy freshman who adds some real pop to the lineup. D'Mitrik Trice is one of my favorite players; he can go off and shoot behind ball screens and take over. Wisconsin is a value pick here, even though the Heels' offensive rebounding scares the hell out of everyone. Wisconsin wins this one -- barely.
Winner: Wisconsin
No. 5 Villanova Wildcats vs. No. 12 Winthrop Eagles
This is an upset alert. Winthrop is 1-10 all-time in the NCAA tournament, but don't be fooled. This team is good. The Eagles play fast, put up points, and have depth and quality wings. They can score in a variety of ways. There will be no shot-clock violations by Winthrop, which plays the same tempo as Alabama. Pat Kelsey is a Skip Prosser protege who has built a winning culture at Winthrop. But the last and only NCAA tournament win was in 2007 with a victory over Notre Dame in the first round. Winthrop is led by Chandler Vaudrin, a 6-7 point guard with an "old-man game." Vaudrin can back you in, shoot over you, rebound on both ends and pass. He is versatile, has great vision, can see over defenders, and can put up a triple-double. The lefty is a matchup problem. On the inside, Kelsey can bring in D.J. Burns, a load in the low post. Burns started his career at Tennessee and is the highest-rated recruit ever at Winthrop. He is 6-9 and 270 pounds, and very quick with terrific hands and feel. He commands a double-team and puts up points in a hurry. Chase Claxton is the team's best defender. Diminutive point guard Russell Jones Jr. is a junkyard dog with speed, providing Winthrop with two really good point guards. Kyle Zunic and Micheal Anumba provide toughness, glue, length and defensive versatility. The Wildcats were trending toward a tough out and a possible Elite Eight team, but then the bottom dropped out. All-America point guard Collin Gillespie, arguably the best leader in the country, went down for the season with a torn MCL. Gillespie is one of the toughest, grittiest, strongest leaders in the game. He could back defenders down, make plays off two feet and key an entire offense and defense. No player in college basketball is more important to his team than Gillespie. His injury is heartbreaking. Does his absence mean that Villanova cannot win? Of course not, but Villanova cannot win it all without him. Still, there is talent remaining. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, one of the three Big East Players of the Year (along with Gillespie and Seton Hall's Sandro Mamukelashvili) is one of the best and most versatile frontcourt stars in the country. JRE is a fabulous pick-and-roll defender who switches onto anyone. He can be Villanova's best rebounder and defender -- ever. That is how good he is. Jermaine Samuels has been really consistent at a high level this season. Justin Moore will be asked to take over handling duties for Gillespie. Moore has great talent as a combo guard, is offensive-minded and a late-clock sniper. However, there is no replacing Gillespie. Villanova is the safe pick. Winthrop is the risk. I will take the risk, because neither team will be around too long.
Winner: Winthrop
No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 13 North Texas Mean Green
The Mean Green are solid defensively but can turn the ball over too much. When the ball is secure, North Texas can score it from multiple spots. Five guys have hit 24 or more 3-pointers, led by James Reese with 53 and Mardrez McBride with 39. Javion Hamlet is the top scorer, a playmaker who put up 30 points against Rice. North Texas was 13-9 and had lost three straight before ripping off four straight wins in the C-USA tournament. The Mean Green are patient, use the entire shot clock and take charges. The Boilermakers have one of the toughest big men in the country in Trevion Williams. Very few teams have a 7-4 freshman to bring in off the bench like Zach Edey. Sasha Stefanovic and freshman Brandon Newman can both hit shots to loosen things up around Williams, but Purdue needs to get Williams the ball and let him go to work. He is an elite offensive rebounder. I admire Williams and the way he plays. And I admire Purdue. This team has outperformed outside expectations, but not its own.
Winner: Purdue
No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 11 Utah State Aggies
The Red Raiders have been a good bet over the past few years -- and this year will be no exception. Chris Beard has another good team. But is this team Final Four good? Almost. With a break in the bracket, who knows? Texas Tech is led by Mac McClung and Terrence Shannon Jr., two dynamic players who are fun as hell to watch. McClung is an explosive scorer who is a spectacular two-footed leaper and shot maker. Does he take a few questionable shots? Not as many as some believe. McClung is far more efficient than he was at Georgetown. Shannon, a lefty wing, is a skilled defender who can drive it and get into the paint. He is always best getting downhill. Kyler Edwards is a good shooter, Micah Peavy is the best future NBA prospect who can guard multiple positions, and Marcus Santos-Silva is the top rebounder and shot blocker who transferred from VCU. Santos-Silva is a lefty who can switch and drive opposing big men. He is a very good position defender. Santos-Silva is a great teammate and will do whatever it takes to win. Texas Tech forces opponents to cough up the ball on over 23% of possessions, which is among the best turnover rates in the nation. Utah State is very good, but not as good as last year, especially on the offensive end. The Aggies have beaten San Diego State twice and have a terrific defense, anchored by Neemias Queta, the two-time MWC Defensive Player of the Year. Brock Miller hit over 50 3-point shots on the season. Justin Bean is another versatile defender and rebounder, and he's a tough player. Marco Anthony transferred in from Virginia. Texas Tech is just a bit stronger.
Winner: Texas Tech
No. 3 Arkansas Razorbacks vs. No. 14 Colgate Raiders
Colgate is a very good offensive team that shoots the ball very well. This is Colgate's fourth NCAA appearance; it has never won a game. Moses Moody is the rookie ringleader, averaging over 17 points and almost six rebounds. The 6-5 guard knows how to get fouled. He can shoot and drive with any wing in the country. JD Notae, a transfer from Jacksonville, and Jalen Tate, a 6-6 transfer from Northern Kentucky, have both been impactful role players around Moody. Tate is a good shooter, especially in the midrange. He is an excellent defender who gets his hands on the ball more than any other Razorback. Justin Smith, who transferred from Indiana, and Connor Vanover, a 7-3 transfer from Cal, provide size and rebounding. This is a versatile, talented team that seems to be getting better by the day. And there is no rule that you cannot get better while the NCAA tournament goes forward.
Winner: Arkansas
No. 7 Florida Gators vs. No. 10 Virginia Tech Hokies
Mike Young had some great teams at Wofford. His Virginia Tech team has some Wofford offensive actions with big-time athletes. Keve Aluma has blossomed into a first-team All-ACC player. Tyrece Radford and Justyn Mutts are dynamic drivers who can take advantage of mismatches. The Hokies have three players who average six or more rebounds, which only North Carolina, Michigan and Louisville can match among Power 5 teams. Virginia Tech is a solid, physical, hardworking and well-coached basketball team. Florida has been inconsistent, but Tre Mann is a difference-maker. Still, I like Virginia Tech in this one -- barley.
Winner: Virginia Tech
No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 15 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
Oral Roberts played some big shots, having lost to Missouri, Wichita State, Ohio State and Arkansas. The Golden Eagles lost all four games but did not really get blown out of any of them. Elite scorer Max Abmas will not disappoint. Abmas averages 24.7 points per game, which leads the nation. He has scored over 40 points a game twice this season. He has hit 87 3-pointers and gets to the foul line. The Golden Eagles are No. 2 in the nation in free throw shooting, hitting over 82%. They just don't get to the line that often. Kevin Obanor and Kareem Thompson can both hit from deep, but Oral Roberts does not rebound the ball particularly well. That will be an issue in the first round. The Buckeyes can really score and are led by matchup nightmare E.J. Liddell, an All-Big Ten big man who can operate in the low post or step away. Liddell is one of the best inside-out forwards in the country, using his mobility to catch the ball on the move and wreak havoc. Duane Washington Jr. is the best shooter and is a hungry scorer who hunts his 3-point opportunities. Washington has supreme confidence and can get on a roll in a hurry. Lefty shooter Justin Ahrens provides a terrific running mate for Washington and can drill deep ones. A key performer for Ohio State is Justice Sueing, a transfer from Cal who has improved his efficiency and defense. He has shown he can crash the glass and get offensive rebounds. The difference for Ohio State will be defense. Can the Buckeyes defend at a high level, given the fact that this is not a big team with shot-blocking capabilities? That will be the key to watch.
Winner: Ohio State
Second Round
Baylor vs. Wisconsin
Baylor scores too easily and will take out the experienced Badgers. This will be a damn good game, though.
Winner: Baylor
Purdue vs. Winthrop
The size and toughness of Purdue will end the Cinderella ride of Winthrop.
Winner: Purdue
Arkansas vs. Texas Tech
Moses Moody will be the difference here, but this game is a coin flip. I like this Razorbacks team.
Winner: Arkansas
Ohio State vs. Virginia Tech
The Buckeyes are too good on the offensive end. Liddell is the matchup that the Hokies cannot match.
Winner: Ohio State
Sweet 16
Baylor vs. Purdue
The Bears are better at the guard spots, but Trevion Williams can be a problem. Still, Baylor's offensive prowess will be the difference.
Winner: Baylor
Arkansas vs. Ohio State
The Buckeyes are not a great defensive team, but good enough to beat Arkansas in this game.
Winner: Ohio State
Elite Eight
Baylor vs. Ohio State
The Bears have the best defensive backcourt in the country. That will put them in the Final Four.
Winner: Baylor
Midwest: The 'superhero' region
No. 1 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 16 Drexel Dragons
Brad Underwood changed his defensive philosophy from press and force turnovers to contain and avoid fouls. The result is a title-worthy team. The analytics, and the presence of Kofi Cockburn, convinced Underwood to make the change. The players embraced it and have become one of the best defensive teams in the nation. Ayo Dosunmu has become the best closer and most clutch performer in the college game. Dosunmu is a great transition guard -- long, athletic and hungry. He has had two triple-doubles this season, a broken nose, and a concussion and has donned a Batman mask. Remember, though, he has worn the cape for this team all season. So Illinois has Batman and The Hulk -- and that ain't fair. Cockburn is a physical force who can play. He can move, but he cannot be moved, a double-double machine who requires a double-team to stop him. Andre Curbelo has emerged as the next great guard in the Illinois program. Adam Miller can make shots. A difference-maker for Illinois will be Trent Frazier, the lefty who can give you 20 points or be put on an opposing hot player and be the stopper. The Dragons were the 6-seed in the Colonial tournament -- and won it. Drexel is 12-7, but it was not blown out in a single game. It is a very good perimeter shooting and free throw shooting team, hitting over 37% from deep and over 77% from the line -- 81% in CAA play. Drexel turns it over at a 20% clip. Defending the 3-point line has been challenging. This is Drexel's first trip to the NCAA tournament since 1996, when Malik Rose, Mike Derocckis and Jeff Myers led the Dragons here. This has been a great ride for Drexel, and it has been fun, but it likely ends here.
Winner: Illinois
No. 8 Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. No. 9 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
This is the most compelling of the No. 8 vs. No. 9 games -- by far. This is the Ramblers' first NCAA appearance since reaching the Final Four in 2018 as an 11-seed. This team is actually better defensively, at least according to the metrics. Loyola is the No. 1-ranked defense in the nation from an efficiency standpoint; the Ramblers are very together and difficult to score upon. That leads to wins, and Loyola has 21 in its past 23 games. Possessions are long, and the Ramblers defend without fouling to force tough 2s. Essentially, Porter Moser has made the calculation that Loyola's defense cannot take away everything, so he takes away the things that hurt most: 3-point shots. Loyola does not over-help to get into rotation or scramble. If it does, it will not come off shooters to help on drivers taking tough 2-point shots. Why allow a pass to an open 3-point shooter when you can force a midrange jumper off the bounce while reaching for the lights? Plus, Loyola is a taking defense, one that communicates everything as if it were a choreographed dance. Cameron Krutwig is the loud, order-barking voice behind the Loyola defense, while Lucas Williamson and Aher Uguak are the super-talented and lengthy wings who can guard anyone. Williamson is the best overall defender. He is long, athletic and does not melt on screens. Uguak can switch and guard anyone on the floor. Krutwig has good hands and gets strips but can be compromised when guarding pick-and-roll actions. Krutwig is the key to this team. He is the facilitator on both offense and defense. A great passer, Krutwig is the player Moser runs his 5-out offense through. Krutwig just knows how to play. The harmonica-playing big man has put up numbers in the Missouri Valley Conference that only Larry Bird, Oscar Robertson and Hersey Hawkins can match. One of the hottest teams in a relatively weak ACC, the Yellow Jackets won six straight games heading into the ACC tournament. With an incredible finish to his season, interior presence Moses Wright took home ACC Player of the Year honors, while teammate Jose Alvarado, of whom coach Josh Pastner says winning is more important than breathing, took home the ACC Defensive Player of the Year award. Wright was a sidekick to shot-blocking savant James Banks III in the past. He is now the center of attention. Georgia Tech mixes defenses, using hybrid zones and man. The Jackets are aggressive going for steals and blocked shots. The two early-season losses to mid-majors took attention away from Georgia Tech, but this team can still be a tough out. Alvarado is an incredible ball thief. Anything below the rim, it belongs to him.
Winner: Loyola Chicago
No. 5 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 12 Oregon State Beavers
Oregon State went on an improbable run in the Pac-12 tournament. It has a terrific guard in Ethan Thompson. But Tennessee is talented and tough at every position. Tennessee has size, depth and talent. If the Vols make shots, this team can beat anyone. Yet there have been struggles to score from time to time, and that is what can end Tennessee's ride in Indy. Tennessee's offense is average. But when in a flow, this group is special. Yves Pons is one of the best defenders in the country. Lefty John Fulkerson is a low-post threat. Freshman phenoms Jaden Springer and Keon Johnson are dynamic athletes and drivers who can make Tennessee truly elite. Tennessee can guard inside and out, force turnovers, force tough 2s, block shots and give you a physical beating. They wear orange, but the Vols leave you black and blue. Tennessee can get stuck on the offensive end at times but is better than the Beavers.
Winner: Tennessee
No. 4 Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. No. 13 Liberty Flames
The Cowboys were seeded incorrectly. This team is better than a No. 4, and it got a very tough draw. The Flames have won 11 straight games and are legit. Second in the nation in scoring defense, Liberty plays much like Virginia. It has beaten Mississippi State and South Carolina and played tough against Purdue, TCU and Missouri. Playing Power 5 teams tough is an indicator of being good -- and of being unafraid. This team is both. Liberty is led by Darius McGhee, a small guard who can make shots. McGhee has deep range and uncanny accuracy, knocking in seven 3s against Mississippi State. He was the A-Sun Player of the Year and hit 81 triples on 40% shooting. Elijah Cuffee can influence the game without scoring -- but he can also score. Cuffee is the A-Sun Defensive Player of the Year, and Blake Preston, a 6-9 defensive whiz with great feet, and Keegan McDowell, a long armed defender who can pass, help make Liberty a tough team to score upon. The Flames have a low turnover rate, a deliberate pace that is difficult to speed up and a 57% effective field goal percentage, which is among the best in the nation. This team can beat a big shot in the first round. The more I watch the Cowboys play, the more I like and respect this team. Oklahoma State is painfully young yet plays with poise and toughness. Cade Cunningham is the best player and the presumptive No. 1 pick in the NBA draft. Isaac Likekele is the best leader and defender. Kalib Boone is the most important player with his activity and the role he plays. Mike Boynton can move Cunningham all over the floor, including into the post and using him as a screener. Cunningham is one of the most "aware" young players on both ends of the floor. He has put up numbers only Ben Simmons, Evan Turner and Dwyane Wade have matched, and that kind of super-talent can take a team -- even a young one -- on his back for a long ride. Avery Anderson has great speed and quickness. Rondel Walker can shoot it. Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe, Kalib Boone and Likekele can all crash the glass and get second-shot opportunities. Liberty is no joke. This is an upset alert. Still, Cunningham is too good to let the Flames send him home.
Winner: Oklahoma State
No. 6 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 11 Syracuse Orange
The Aztecs just keep rolling. San Diego State has the Mountain West Coach of the Year in Brian Dutcher (who recruited the Fab Five for Michigan) and the Mountain West Player of the Year in Matt Mitchell. Mitchell averaged 15.4 points and 6.3 rebounds per game while shooting 45% from the floor. He is a tough, physical defender. Mitchell is a bruising matchup who cannot be pegged into a position; he just makes plays. Jordan Schakel, an All-Mountain West senior guard, is an outstanding shooter, while big man Nathan Mensah controls the paint and is among the best defenders in the league. Schakel has been battling a bad back but has gutted it out. Terrell Gomez is another terrific shooter; he was an All-Big West player at Cal State Northridge. San Diego State is a proven winner and excellent defensively. The Orange can be difficult to play against, but the zone is not the feared element this season. Syracuse is not big, strong or long on the baseline of the zone. It is much easier to play against the Orange this season, and incredibly easy (relatively) to get offensive rebounds. The feared element of this year's team is Buddy Boeheim and his shot-making ability. Boeheim can get hot in a hurry, drop 30 on you and come close to making his old man smile. Well, nobody is that good. This is an upset alert, and it all depends upon how Syracuse shoots it and rebounds.
Winner: Syracuse
No. 3 West Virginia Mountaineers vs. No. 14 Morehead State Eagles
Morehead State is 19-1 since the first of the year, the most wins in Division I over that span. This program has won a tournament game in five of its previous seven appearances. It is used to winning. Preston Spradlin, a former Kentucky assistant, has a tough team with an edge. Morehead State got off to a slow start at 4-6, but played Kentucky, Richmond, Ohio State and Clemson early. After the holiday break, the Eagles took off. They do it with defense and were No. 1 in every defensive category except steals in the Ohio Valley Conference. Morehead State has big guards, length and is very prideful and tough on the defensive end. Spradlin says his team plays with "defensive confidence." Skyelar Potter and DeVon Cooper are the best shooters, and Johni Broome is a rapidly improving, young big man who can block shots and offensive rebound. He provides a presence inside. Broom had 27 points and 12 rebounds against Belmont in the OVC final. Morehead State is a fun team, with a goal of getting a "bench warning" from officials for being so enthusiastic and loud. The thing that could derail an upset bid is turnovers. Morehead State turns it over at a 23% clip, 332nd in the country. The Mountaineers are different this year. Instead of a pressing, frenetic, turnover-producing defense that generated offense, West Virginia can score by making shots this season. Although he was ill in the Big 12 tournament and limited against Oklahoma State, Derek Culver is a rock inside, a double-double machine. Miles McBride, Taz Sherman and Sean McNeil can all knock down perimeter shots, and do so in bunches. Sherman is the most consistent shooter and best creator off the dribble. And McBride is the best player, the one who gets West Virginia going. McBride can push it in transition and defend as a ball hawk, and his go-to game is the midrange, which everyone says is dead. It's not. West Virginia does not defend at the highest level. It needs to rebound the ball to end defensive possessions. Still, in the NCAA tournament, against non-Big 12 teams, West Virginia is a good pick.
Winner: West Virginia
No. 7 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 10 Rutgers Scarlet Knights
The Tigers have had an odd journey this season. Early on, the Tigers were one of the best defensive teams in the nation and were rolling. After a pause, it was bumpy, with ups and downs the remainder of the season. For every good win, there were head-scratching losses. The best player on the Clemson roster is versatile big man Aamir Simms, who Brad Brownell can move all over the floor and play through. Simms is a great passer and playmaker, but he is Clemson's only elite player. The dynamic Nick Honor transferred in from Fordham and has hit some big shots. Al-Amir Dawes can handle, penetrate and make open looks. But Clemson does not have great scoring capacity and has to pitch shutouts. Clemson does not shoot the ball well overall and turns it over at almost a 20% clip, yet has beaten Alabama, Maryland, Purdue, North Carolina and Georgia Tech this season. Clemson is 7-6 over its past 13 games heading into the NCAA tournament. The Scarlet Knights are better than their record. The Big Ten has beaten up a lot of teams, but Rutgers is bruised and better for it. Ron Harper Jr. is a go-to scorer who has length and body balance and can make NBA jumpers. With guards Geo Baker and Jacob Young, Rutgers has scorers alongside Harper who can attack off the dribble and pitch it back in transition, which is great action to watch for. Montez Mathis provides versatility on both ends. He runs the floor, defends and pursues the ball. Myles Johnson is one of the best interior defenders in the country, blocking shots and getting steals and deflections in the post. Johnson has come a long way, literally and figuratively, being from California and developing into such a good player. He can be a difference maker.
Winner: Rutgers
No. 2 Houston Cougars vs. No. 15 Cleveland State Vikings
Dennis Gates is in Year 2 of his rebuild of the Cleveland State program, which had lost over 20 games in each of the two seasons before his arrival. Gates played at Cal for Ben Braun, then coached in the NBA and for Tom Crean at Marquette and for Leonard Hamilton at Florida State. Hamilton compares Gates to Bill Self (whom Hamilton hired at Oklahoma State) -- a born coaching savant who sees the game differently. Gates has a similar system at Cleveland State as Hamilton employs at Florida State, a "win by committee" approach in which players play harder and are more productive in fewer minutes. Ten players all play 10 minutes or more, which allows Cleveland State go go hard for an entire 40 minutes. The Vikings are led by top scorer Torrey Patton and top defender Tre Gomillion. Patton averages 15 points and eight rebounds, leading the team in both categories, and is a major matchup problem. Gomillion is a linebacker in shorts, tough as nails. Deante Johnson joined Gomillion on the Horizon All-Defensive team and helped transform the Cleveland State defense into one of the most improved in the country, going from poor to pretty darn good. Cleveland State is not a great shooting team and can have difficulty protecting the rim, but the Vikings have won four in a row and are on the ride of their lives. And remember, the Vikings played Ohio State to a single-digit loss early in the season. As for Houston, the Cougars are amazing. It seems impossible to shoot poor percentages from the field yet be such a good scoring team. Houston is the best offensive rebounding team in the country, (along with North Carolina), with athletic wings and Justin Gorham, one of the most improved players in the country and a great offensive rebounder. Quentin Grimes has had an All-America season, and DeJon Jarreau is a terrific defender who can get to the foul line. Houston can defend and rebound with anyone in the nation.
Winner: Houston
Second round
Illinois vs. Loyola Chicago
The Illini will not enjoy playing against the Ramblers. But Curbelo and Dosunmu will make the difference and Illinois will move on.
Winner: Illinois
Tennessee vs. Oklahoma State
The Vols are so good defensively and more experienced. Unless the Vols go into one of their scoring droughts, I like Tennessee here -- by a hair.
Winner: Tennessee
West Virginia vs. Syracuse
The Mountaineers can shoot and rebound, two things that will cause the Syracuse zone a problem. West Virginia moves on to the Sweet 16.
Winner: West Virginia
Houston vs. Rutgers
This is a really intriguing game, but the offensive rebounding and defense of Houston will send the Cougars on to the next round -- barely.
Winner: Houston
Sweet 16
Illinois vs. Tennessee
Illinois is too strong. The Illini have a great vibe and spirit, and the guards will make the difference here.
Winner: Illinois
Houston vs. West Virginia
The Mountaineers shoot it better. Houston rebounds it better. I will take the shooting here.
Winner: West Virginia
Elite Eight
Illinois vs. West Virginia
The Illini have Dosunmu as Batman and Cockburn as the Incredible Hulk. Two superheroes will win.
Winner: Illinois
Final Four
Gonzaga vs. Alabama
Both teams can score. Gonzaga is the better offensive team. Both teams can defend. Alabama is the better defensive team. Offense will beat defense in this one.
Winner: Gonzaga
Baylor vs. Illinois
This is rematch of a game played earlier this season, one that Illinois was not ready for. The Illini are ready for this one. Freshmen Curbelo and Miller are more mature and tougher now. In a nailbiter, Illinois wins this one
Winner: Illinois
National championship
Gonzaga vs. Illinois
The Zags will enter this game 31-0, but Illinois enters the game sharpened by the Big Ten. Still, Gonzaga has played only one game decided by single digits. Mark Few adds his first national title to his Hall of Fame résumé. Then he'll crack a beer and go fishing.
Champion: Gonzaga