As last season progressed, it became clear that what was once perceived as a potentially busy coaching carousel would feature few big-time changes. And then once the coronavirus pandemic hit, things dramatically changed. The appetite -- and financial ability -- to pay large buyouts disappeared, resulting in just one change at the power conference level. At Wake Forest, out went Danny Manning and in came Steve Forbes.
Does that mean we're going to see a huge hot seat cycle after the 2020-21 season? Probably not. The financial implications of the coronavirus are still going to be a factor, and aside from that, there simply aren't a ton of major conference coaches in truly precarious positions.
That said, we already have one Power 5 job open and could be on the verge of another high-major position opening up, so a busier spring is undoubtedly in store.
Already open
Penn State: Pat Chambers resigned in October following an internal investigation into allegations of inappropriate conduct. Assistant coach Jim Ferry will serve as the Nittany Lions' interim head coach for the upcoming season, but the program is expected to hire a permanent replacement in the spring. We're still a long way away from any type of real information, but the school was expected to hire a search firm to aid with the search. I'm guessing the upcoming season will dictate much of the search.
One step away
Gregg Marshall, Wichita State: Reports emerged last week that Gregg Marshall was expected to resign or be fired in the coming days, and while that hasn't happened yet and ESPN didn't independently confirm an imminent decision, the expectation around college basketball is Marshall likely won't be the head coach of the Shockers much longer. So what happens if he's gone before the season starts? Mentions of Thad Matta taking over immediately seem a bit wide of the mark, although he could be a candidate to get the permanent job in the spring.
I lean toward the expectation that the school will go with an interim name for the season and then cast a wider net later on. Some early potential replacements floating around, in addition to Matta, include former Michigan coach John Beilein, Murray State's Matt McMahon, Charleston's Earl Grant and former Wake Forest coach Danny Manning, while Wichita native and Toronto Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin has reportedly expressed interest.
The hottest of seats
Jim Christian, Boston College: The Eagles' decision last spring to keep Christian was met with mild surprise throughout college basketball, so Christian must turn things around this season to still be in Chestnut Hill in 2021-22. Since he arrived at Boston College in 2014, the Eagles have finished above .500 overall once and have never won more than seven ACC games. They've been better the past three seasons than his first three seasons, but with a new athletic director in charge, Christian will have to take a major step forward this season.
Dave Leitao, DePaul: Leitao has been on this list for a few years running, but he continues to save his job and show signs of optimism in the program. In fact, Leitao received a contract extension last April through 2024, but the school hired a new athletic director (Kentucky's DeWayne Peevy) over the summer and the new contract reportedly includes no buyout. DePaul finished last in the Big East yet again last season, the fourth straight season the Blue Demons have finished in the cellar. They did go 12-1 in nonconference play and have recruited much better lately, but DePaul needs to show tangible signs of improvement in the Big East.
Jeff Neubauer, Fordham: There was a shake-up last spring in Fordham's athletic department, with athletic director David Roach retiring in early April. There was even some talk that further changes could be made, including in the basketball program. But Neubauer survived for another season. The Rams have gone 30-64 overall and 9-45 in the Atlantic 10 the past three seasons, and Neubauer is out of contract at the end of this season. Barring a surprising run up the league standings, Fordham is poised to make a change after the season.
Should win enough to cool things down
Shaka Smart, Texas: Smart was the headliner on most Hot Seat columns entering last season, and after a 29-point loss at Iowa State in mid-February, it seemed like his fate was sealed. But the Longhorns won five of their final six games to play themselves back into NCAA tournament consideration, and the addition of local five-star forward Greg Brown helped buy Smart another year. And now Texas enters the season as a legitimate top-25 team with everyone back from a year ago. The Longhorns should be good enough to keep the pressure off Smart.
Heating up
Brad Brownell, Clemson: This seems like a conversation every year, but every year Brownell and Clemson are good enough to keep the heat off. The closest the Tigers came to making a move was in 2017, but Brownell followed that up with a 25-10 record and Sweet 16 appearance in 2018. They were on the wrong side of the bubble in 2019 and a middle-of-the-pack ACC team last season. The Tigers are likely headed that way again this season. Will that be enough to keep his job? Probably. Brownell signed a new six-year deal in 2018 that runs for another three seasons.
Josh Pastner, Georgia Tech: Pastner might have his best team since arriving at Georgia Tech, and a first NCAA tournament appearance with the Yellow Jackets would go a long way toward keeping him in Atlanta. You might not realize this because the Jackets had an NCAA tournament ban (decent timing), but they finished fifth in the ACC last season after going 11-9 in conference play. And they have enough pieces returning to get into the NCAA mix once again. But Tech hasn't been to the NCAA tournament since 2010 and athletic director Todd Stansbury isn't going to wait around forever.
Richard Pitino, Minnesota: Pitino just hasn't been able to string together successive successful seasons the last few years with the Golden Gophers. They won 25 games in 2013-14, 24 games in 2016-17, went to the second round of the NCAA tournament in 2019 -- and have otherwise struggled. They're going to be in the bubble mix this season, depending on how the newcomers and transfers acclimate, and that should be enough for Pitino to stick around. His buyout ($1.75 million) is awfully low, though.
Tim Jankovich, SMU: In Jankovich's first full season in charge of SMU, back in 2016-17, the Mustangs went 30-5 and lost just one conference game. Since then, SMU has underachieved. The Mustangs do have as much talent as anyone in the American Athletic Conference this season, though, and will enter the season expecting to make the NCAA tournament. SMU is a sought-after job. The school has money and facilities and is located in a talent-rich area for recruiting. But Jankovich has a good relationship with the administration, and assuming the team lives up to expectations, he should be OK.
Investigation-related
The FBI's investigation into college basketball was revealed more than three years ago, and so far the ramifications have been Louisville's firing of Rick Pitino and jail time for a few assistant coaches and shoe company reps. As Mark Schlabach laid out earlier this month, at least 12 schools are still connected to the investigation, and that doesn't include Cal State Northridge (where Mark Gottfried, who was implicated as part of the NC State investigation, is now employed) and Memphis (which is under NCAA investigation, unrelated to the FBI's investigation).
Perhaps the three most noteworthy coaches and schools would be Sean Miller and Arizona, which was hit with five Level I allegations (including one for the women's swimming and diving program) last month; Bill Self and Kansas, whose notice of allegations in 2019 included five Level I violations; and Will Wade and LSU, who have decided to go the IARP route with the NCAA's accusations against Wade. All three of those schools have shown that they're going to back their coach and fight the accusations, meaning there might not be a resolution for another season or two.
Who's next?
The Southern Conference has produced one high-major hire in each of the past two cycles, with Mike Young going from Wofford to Virginia Tech in 2019 and Steve Forbes leaving East Tennessee State for Wake Forest last spring. All eyes will be on the SoCon once again next spring, as UNC Greensboro's Wes Miller and Furman's Bob Richey will likely be atop most lists if anything opens in the ACC or SEC. McMahon and Grant, as mentioned earlier, are two other Southeast names to watch, as are Winthrop's Pat Kelsey, North Carolina Central's LeVelle Moton, Liberty's Ritchie McKay and Austin Peay's Matt Figger.
Loyola Chicago's Porter Moser has been linked to a number of jobs since leading the Ramblers to the Final Four in 2018, and they're expected to be right in the mix at the top of the Missouri Valley again. Northern Iowa's Ben Jacobson is another name to watch from the Valley. Utah State's Craig Smith (formerly at South Dakota) and Bradley's Brian Wardle should also garner buzz, with both earning two straight NCAA tournament appearances.
Out west, BYU's Mark Pope and Pacific's Damon Stoudamire are two more who could get mentions. Pope's stock is on the rise after leading the Cougars to a 24-8 record last season and reloading with transfers in the spring, while Stoudamire led the Tigers to a nine-win improvement last season. Montana's Travis DeCuire has been to the NCAA tournament in two of the last three seasons, while New Mexico State's Chris Jans is 43-3 in the WAC since taking over the Aggies. Other names include San Francisco's Todd Golden and South Dakota State's Eric Henderson, while Stephen F. Austin's Kyle Keller has had plenty of success with the Lumberjacks.
At some point, Vermont's John Becker could move, too. The Catamounts have won four straight America East championships, losing just five regular-season conference games during that stretch. A few more mid-major names to watch with East Coast ties include UMBC's Ryan Odom, George Washington's Jamion Christian, Bowling Green's Michael Huger, Colgate's Matt Langel, Rhode Island's David Cox, La Salle's Ashley Howard and St. Bonaventure's Mark Schmidt.
Then there's the former high-major head coaches who haven't gotten back into college hoops yet. Beilein will be the most coveted after parting ways with the Cleveland Cavaliers last season, but Matta and Tim Miles will also get attention.