College basketball doesn't normally see national championship-shifting personnel moves this late in the offseason, but Kentucky receiving a waiver for Wake Forest transfer Olivier Sarr -- and Rhode Island transfer Jacob Toppin -- to play immediately this season potentially fits the bill. The Wildcats' national title odds got shorter and they rose from No. 12 to No. 5 in ESPN's Way-Too-Early Top 25 rankings.
But is all that warranted?
I talked to coaches in the ACC, SEC and around the country to get a feel for how Sarr will impact Kentucky and how the Wildcats might stack up heading into the season.
Sarr's impact on Kentucky
Sarr, a 7-foot center from France, was a third-team All-ACC performer last season at Wake Forest, averaging 13.7 points and 9.0 rebounds. He was dominant late in the season, scoring 25 points in a win over Duke and following that up with 30 points and 17 rebounds against Notre Dame.
He was my No. 1 transfer last spring, and he's being counted on to make an immediate impact for Kentucky and start at the five spot.
"He's gotten better and better and better, he improved each year he was at Wake Forest," an ACC coach said. "I think Danny Manning does a really good job with developing big guys. When Sarr first got there, he wasn't physical enough to convert around the basket, but he took steps toward becoming an impactful player as a sophomore. Rebounded the ball at a higher level, was still a shot-blocking, shot-altering player.
"This past year, you could make the argument that he was one of the best bigs in the league. He was a double-double threat every single night. He was posting with physicality, had a soft touch around the basket, steps out to 15-17 feet comfortably. I always thought he would develop 3-point range and consistency, but he never got to that point. He's a dominant left shoulder player, comes back to his right hand. But he's a big body, increasingly physical. Really long arms, allows him to get on the offensive glass."
Sarr had a tendency to disappear at times in ACC play, though. He had seven or fewer points on five occasions in conference play last season, and picked up four or more fouls in 15 of 30 games.
"He's got a lot of ability and we were always enamored with his talent level, but it was surprising how inconsistent he could be," another ACC coach said. "We really like his talent, but there were times he really, really disappeared. He killed Notre Dame, did the same thing to Duke. He's got all the measurables that you want as a prospect, he's got great touch, really good rim protector. But a guy with those kinds of things, you'd think he would be gone [to the NBA] by now. His rebounding can go, he's not the toughest guy in the world sometimes. But when the light bulb is on, he's got a lot of ability."
We've gone down this path before with grad transfer big men, increasing a team's expectations based on the idea their production will translate to the highest level. It hasn't always worked out. Reid Travis and Nate Sestina were solid for Kentucky, while Florida landing Kerry Blackshear in the spring of 2019 vaulted the Gators into the national title discussion. Florida finished 19-12.
"All these transfers, particularly the immediately eligible ones, they're not going to make that much improvement," a third ACC coach said. "He was the centerpiece on a team that finished last in our league, so the numbers are always a little bit skewed. Somebody's gotta score on the bad teams."
That said, he won't be the centerpiece for Kentucky. The Wildcats bring in five-star guards B.J. Boston, Terrence Clarke and Devin Askew, and also return Keion Brooks Jr. from last season's team. Coach John Calipari doesn't need Sarr to put up 20 and 10 every night.
"The way Calipari utilizes their big guys, Sarr will be a lob threat, roll to the rim, get on the offensive glass. They run continuous pin-downs to have guards curl into the lane, so he can screen and release to the rim for a lob or a free run at the glass," an opposing coach said. "He moves his feet, contests shots on the perimeter. Extend on the floor a little bit. He can give them a lot of what Nick Richards gave them last year."
What about Toppin?
Sarr's waiver received far more attention than Toppin, and for good reason. Toppin played 18.5 minutes per game for Rhode Island last season, averaging 5.1 points and 3.9 rebounds. But he's the younger brother of former Dayton star Obi Toppin, last season's Wooden Award winner, and there's some hope he could be a late bloomer much like his brother.
With the influx of newcomers on the wings this season, as well as Dontaie Allen eligible after redshirting last season, Kentucky likely won't need Toppin to make an immediate impact.
"The truth is in prep school, he was probably 6-foot-3, 6-foot-4. He's grown to 6-foot-8, maybe," one Atlantic 10 coach who faced Toppin last season said. "He's a freak athlete just like his brother. He's gotten much better from high school senior to prep year to freshman year in college.
"He didn't do much at Rhode Island, but if he continues on the same trajectory, he can be an impact guy. Whether it's immediately or after a year, I do think he will have the potential to help them."
Assessing Kentucky for 2020-21
Almost overnight, Kentucky went from an SEC title contender and top-15/20 team in the country to the SEC title favorite and a national championship contender. Are we putting too much stock in one player? Again, people did the same thing with Florida and Blackshear a year ago and it didn't work out.
One difference is that Calipari has done this sort of rebuild before. There's only one player back from last season (Brooks), but he brings in the nation's No. 1 recruiting class, plus Sarr, Toppin and Creighton transfer Davion Mintz.
"I don't think Cal gets the credit that he deserves as a coach," an SEC coach said. "He makes it look effortless, he does it every year at Kentucky. It's become normal. People don't realize how good he has to be to do it every year. He has a unique ability, in a very, very short window, to get guys to come together as a unit, play for the greater cause and get them to play for one another."
Prior to Sarr getting his waiver, Kentucky was solid from point guard to power forward. Askew and Mintz are expected to handle the point guard position, with Boston and Clarke on the wings and Brooks at the forward position. But there were questions about size and the center spot. Freshman Isaiah Jackson is a terrific shot-blocker, but would he be ready to start from day one in college? Getting Sarr fills that void for the Wildcats.
"I think he could be one of the best big guys around," an ACC coach said. "I would imagine he would be one of the best in the SEC. I think he's a major upgrade over Isaiah Jackson. Jackson is still trying to learn college basketball, Olivier has played 90 games already, been in hundreds of practices. He's a bigger, stronger, more prepared player. He's one of the best starting centers in college basketball."
"He gives them an established player in a legitimate league," an SEC coach added. "He gives them legitimate size, he gives them a guy that has some touch and feel. He's a really good piece for Kentucky with the other talent they have."
Kentucky's on-paper talent is as good as anyone in the country now. How will it translate once the season starts next month? Coaches are torn.
"It's good for them, but I'm out of the school of tending to think grad transfers are a bit overvalued. Kerry Blackshear made Florida a 'top five' preseason team," one SEC coach said. "I tend to value the mix of experience and talented youngsters at Tennessee."
"He's a great piece, he's a guy that anybody in the country would take," an ACC coach said. "I'm sure he'll have a great year, but they're not getting Tim Duncan."
"I don't think they're being overrated. I think they're really good," another coach said. "Clarke is really good. I don't know that Boston is as good as people project, but Askew is rock-solid at the point even though he's never played a college game. He provides stability there. Sarr will be one of the best big guys in the league. Keion Brooks will make a jump. He was a talented player when they got him, but he was part of the numbers crunch last year. He'll take a natural next step as a sophomore.
"I really like Terrence Clarke. He has a ton of potential to be an impact guy. B.J. brings shooting and open-court athleticism. The physicality and intensity of the game might take away him being the go-to-guy that people have called him. They have Mintz off the bench. He was not necessarily a great player at Creighton, but he's an experienced player who can shoot. He played in big games, he's been a part of winning teams. It's a good collection of guys."