Opposing coaches make cases for and against Dayton, San Diego State

It's not exactly the usual suspects dotting the top of the rankings at this point in the season. Sure, there are Gonzaga and Kansas, and a little further down, there are Villanova and Duke. But sitting inside the top seven of this week's AP poll are San Diego State and Dayton, two programs not generally seen in late March and early April.

San Diego State has never advanced past the Sweet 16. Dayton has reached the second weekend of the NCAA tournament once in the past 36 years. The Aztecs and Flyers, however, are a combined 39-2 entering Wednesday night and harbor legitimate Final Four hopes.

Anytime a team from outside the power conferences continues to rise in the rankings, there are doubters. "They don't play anyone." "They would finish fifth in the [fill-in conference]." You know, the usual remarks.

So how good are San Diego State and Dayton? I reached out to opposing coaches -- including ones who have faced other high-major programs -- to get insight on how they stack up nationally.

San Diego State Aztecs

Why they're for real: The biggest thing that stands out about San Diego State is how impressed coaches are by the Aztecs' maturity and poise, especially late in games and late in shot clocks. It helps that they have three older transfers and upperclassmen make up their entire starting five, but their ability to avoid panic is evident.

"They don't get rattled, they just do what they do," one coach said. "They're comfortable where others are uncomfortable. That's rare."

San Diego State is among the top 10 teams in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, and opposing coaches pointed out how tough they are at that end of the floor, but the Aztecs' balance on offense makes them difficult for which to prepare.

"The thing as far as game-planning for them, you've got Malachi Flynn, who's insanely good at ball screens and spread pick-and-roll. In the final minutes, you've got him knifing through the lane, he's faster and quicker than them," one coach said. "And when they're making shots, they're able to spread the floor with [Jordan] Schakel and [Matt] Mitchell, and [KJ] Feagin has been shooting the ball better. They're one of the best I've seen at making one more pass. You think you've stopped them, but they continue to find each other.

"One thing they're fantastic at, Matt Mitchell will post-up smaller guards and people blitz him. People blitz [Yanni] Wetzell, but they're fantastic passers out of a blitz. They play so well together, they don't run many plays at all."

Defensively, San Diego State limited opposing stars in its two biggest wins of the season, against Creighton and Iowa. The Aztecs beat the Bluejays by 31, holding Creighton point guard Marcus Zegarowski to seven points on 3-of-16 shooting with one assist and four turnovers. The next game, against Iowa, they held Wooden Award candidate Luka Garza to his worst game of the season: nine points on eight shots.

"Typically, when you think of teams outside the power conferences, you think of a physical disadvantage ... and while they have experience in critical situations, they also have a physical advantage," one coach said. "They look like a Power 5, 6, whatever. There's no drop-off from high-major basketball. They're big, strong and sound defensively."

"They're one of the best I've seen at making one more pass. You think you've stopped them, but they continue to find each other." One coach on San Diego State

Where they struggle: The absence of sophomore center Nathan Mensah, who could miss the rest of the season with a respiratory issue, could hurt the Aztecs once they get into the NCAA tournament. At 6-foot-10, Mensah is the team's best shot-blocker and defensive rebounder, giving coach Brian Dutcher different options in terms of lineups. He has missed the past nine games, replaced by Mitchell in the lineup.

"Mensah is an absolutely elite rim-protector. We had a hard time scoring at the rim," one coach said. "Against some of the power conference teams, he would have been an incredible luxury to play a couple different ways. Not having rim protection, you can't be as aggressive on the wings. They switch and keep things in front of them, but when you have rim protection, it gives you a luxury."

One Mountain West coach said teams that can match them one-on-one on the defensive end could give the Aztecs trouble.

"If you're a team with size and length and don't have to put two on the ball, you don't have to hard show on ball screens or blitz-ball screens, you have elite guard defenders who can guard their guards one-on-one. When the ball goes into the post, you don't have to blitz the post or put two on the ball," he said. "They can have droughts where they struggle to score. They rely on carving you up. You double the ball and they're playing 4-on-3 with everyone else."

Biggest X-factor for a deep March run: Like most teams, San Diego State can take its offense to a new level when outside shots are falling. The Aztecs' closest calls came when they struggled to make 3-pointers. In the two-point win over San Jose State, they went 5-for-16. In two nine-point wins over Fresno State, they shot a combined 6-for-30 from 3. And in the four-point win over UNLV last weekend, they shot 7-for-25.

But as a team, they rank in the top 40 nationally in 3-point percentage and have four guys who have made at least 20 3-pointers this season.

"You can zone them, but it goes back to whether they're making shots," one opposing coach said. "They can stick Yanni at the foul line and he tosses back to the open guy for an open shot. If they're not making shots and you're not putting two on the ball, that's a problem for them."

They also have a truly elite lead guard in Flynn, a transfer from Washington State who is putting up All-American numbers. He is averaging 16.8 points, 5.0 assists and shooting nearly 40% from 3-point range.

"What drives teams crazy is when they get in a half-court situation, they're very deliberate," one coach said. "They make you guard, they take their time. And when you have a guy in Flynn, with 10 on the shot clock, who can make a play, it's demoralizing."

Dayton Flyers

Why they're for real: It starts with Obi Toppin. A legitimate Wooden Award candidate, Toppin has played himself into discussion as a potential lottery pick in June's NBA draft. He averages 19.7 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists and more than one block and one steal per game.

"He doesn't force shots, he accepts double teams and then passes out of it," one Atlantic 10 coach said. "And he can get up over you and score anytime he wants. Whether he's on the perimeter or in the low post, it puts you in a predicament in terms of how to guard them.

"He just finds ways. He finds ways to come up with an offensive rebound or make a 3 -- even when he's not having a great game. He makes 3s to keep you honest. So then you close out and he's difficult to keep in front. And he shares the ball."

It's not just the Toppin show, though. Jalen Crutcher has hit a number of big shots, and the Flyers improved their depth this season with the additions of two Big Ten transfers, Ibi Watson (Michigan) and Jordy Tshimanga (Nebraska). Because of the versatility within the rotation, they can create matchup problems, of which coach Anthony Grant has taken advantage.

"He runs a ball-screen continuity, but it's evolved over the last three years," one coach said. "He's put a lot of different wrinkles in it. They're comfortable playing within that structure. Especially when they sub and bring Watson in, they make it difficult for you to switch. They do some NBA things where they might not set the ball screen, they'll slip real fast. They cause a lot of confusion. Within that offense, they do such a good job whipping the ball around the perimeter. They get you in rotation."

One sneaky thing about Dayton that doesn't pop up in traditional stats or even at KenPom is the Flyers' ability to get points in transition. They don't play exceptionally fast or force a lot of turnovers, but they lead the nation in 2-point percentage and effective field-goal percentage, and according to opposing coaches, a lot of that comes from their transition game.

"They got sprinters, man," an opposing coach said. "They seem to get clean rebounds. We thought we could get offensive rebounds, but when you do decide to go to the offensive glass, they're going to have five guys that are sprinting. Whoever contests the shot, especially if it's Toppin, he's already posting the point guard. They run, they pitch it ahead. Crutcher, without a dribble, will baseball-pass it down to Toppin. They make transition 3s, too. When they go, they really go."

Where they struggle: Not surprisingly, opposing coaches think Dayton could struggle in March if Toppin has an off night. It hasn't happened much this season, although his outside shot wasn't falling against Colorado and he did have some trouble against the size of Kansas down low. There's really no replacement for Toppin if he has to go to the bench for long stretches.

"If he were to get in foul trouble, I think that would be where I would question them playing the high-level teams," an opposing coach said. "If teams really try to go at him with a really good post player, put him in a position where he has to decide whether he's really going to defend. Against the guys he's going against, he doesn't have to challenge every shot, he doesn't have to make a spectacular defensive play. At times, he's chilling. If somebody were to really go at him, that's where it could be an issue. I watched the Kansas game, and [Udoka] Azubuike just posted right underneath the rim. But I do think, physically, they are strong. And I do think they have enough size to match up and compete."

Dayton is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the nation, partially due to Toppin, partially due to the 2-point percentage numbers, partially due to its transition game. But one opposing coach said much of it comes down to making shots from the perimeter. The Flyers rank in the top 30 nationally in 3-point percentage.

"To put it all into context, they're an elite passing team. They share the ball so well," he said. "But they gotta keep making 3s. A lot of their stuff is predicated on making 3s. And when they start making them, they start reversing the ball and sharing the ball, they put you into rotation, they're going to have opportunities."

Biggest X-factor for a deep March run: Opposing coaches continue to harp on Toppin and how everything flows through him, in terms of forcing defenses to make decisions. One coach pointed to a wrinkle that Grant used in the offense, where they'll set a flare screen and then use a guard to set an up-screen for Toppin. It puts defenses into impossible situations, where Toppin is in a mismatch and can hit an open 3 or get a drive to the rim.

"He makes them go," he said. "If you double him, he's such a good passer out of that. That's why he's been so efficient on the block. If you stop doubling, he'll spin on the baseline and dunk it. You have to have the athleticism to switch and have someone to guard Toppin one-on-one. And there's not many guys like that in America."

Another opposing coach highlighted senior forward Trey Landers as the sort of glue guy who will get overlooked on the scouting report but will make a key play late.

"Landers gives them so much," he said. "A lot of people don't talk about him, but he comes up with the offensive rebound, or off a double-team in the post he's cutting and seems to always be there, or he's got a backdoor dive to the post for a dunk or layup. And defensively, he's their best defender. His versatility defensively can give you some issues."

Six other things on my mind

1. Merrimack received a rude welcome to Division I basketball in November. The Warriors went to Maine, a team that won five games last season, and got drilled by 20 in their season-opener.

"I kind of wanted to crawl into a hole," Merrimack coach Joe Gallo told ESPN this week.