Feast Week and the other games that took place outside of tournament settings over the past seven days elevated some national profiles (Michigan, Dayton and, yes, Stephen F. Austin), cast at least a shadow of a doubt on a few others (Michigan State and Duke) and even affirmed what we thought we knew previously (Kansas).
One thing this time of year does particularly well, however, is raise the question of what, exactly, is sustainable in terms of performance?
Here are three potential answers to that very question, phrased, per usual, in the form of hot takes I think I can prove:
The Wolverines' overall strength could prove sustainable even if their 3-point accuracy isn't
You can make a case that no team had a better Feast Week than Michigan. Sure, Kansas took home the crown at the Maui Jim Maui Invitational, but the Jayhawks entered the event as co-favorites along with Michigan State. Juwan Howard's team, on the other hand, was something of an afterthought in a Battle 4 Atlantis field that was thought to be "loaded" with the likes of North Carolina, Gonzaga, Oregon and Seton Hall.
Instead, it was Michigan that defeated Iowa State, the Tar Heels and the Bulldogs to win it all at Atlantis. In the process, UM made no less than 47% of its 3s over the course of three games, giving rise to rather snarkily phrased suspicions on social media (it's true!) to the effect that the Wolverines' run was merely a fortuitous case of a team getting hot at the right time.
Michigan clearly did get hot at the right time, of course, but Howard's players did -- and are doing -- a lot of other things right, as well. Start with the fact that Michigan actually ranks better nationally for 2-point accuracy than it does from beyond the arc.
Jon Teske leads the team in 2-point makes, is recording nearly 60% of his 2-point attempts at the rim and is a career 59% shooter inside the arc. Guys such as Zavier Simpson or Isaiah Livers aren't chopped liver when it comes to interior efficiency, either. The extensive track records of all three veterans suggest that Michigan could well continue to make 2s at a high rate.
Now, consider additionally that, early on, the Wolverines' defense has continued to look a lot like it did last season -- outstanding. No one could have just assumed this would be the case, what with three starters gone from last year's team and, especially, with assistant coach and defensive guru Luke Yaklich leaving Ann Arbor to take a job at Texas.
Nevertheless, UM just kept rolling along on defense, holding its three Atlantis opponents (including two top-10 teams) to 0.93 points per possession. Again, it's early, but so far, Teske is posting his best career marks both in terms of block percentage and (by far) in defensive rebound rate.
Finally, Michigan's 3-point accuracy hasn't really been all that outlandish (42% for the season). Besides, Livers really is a good perimeter shooter (42% for his career). No, Eli Brooks, David DeJulius and Simpson might not continue to shoot a combined 48% on their 3s for the entire season. And sure, a correction is likely forthcoming. Then again, other such corrections could actually help the Wolverines.
Who knows? By the time the 3-point shooting cools off, maybe Michigan will have improved its emphatically so-so turnover rate (19.4% on the season) into something more befitting an offense recently coached by John Beilein. In any event, there has been far more to UM's hot start than just hot perimeter shooting.
Tony Bennett's interior defense is unsustainable but quite possibly predictive
Virginia is holding its opponents to 33% shooting inside the arc thus far this season. No, the Cavaliers' defense likely won't sustain such an extraordinary figure over the course of approximately 40 games. The good news for fans in Charlottesville, however, is that playing this level of defense over its first seven games suggests the team in question will finish the season with a figure for 2-point percentage defense in the low 40s or even high 30s, which is, of course, remarkable.
Take Kentucky in 2014-15, a group that makes this current Virginia team look like early-season underperformers. After its first seven games, the Wildcats that season were holding opponents to just 28.8% shooting inside the arc. Unsustainable? You bet. But UK went 38-0 before falling to Wisconsin in the Final Four, and John Calipari's men finished the season having allowed opponents to convert just 39.1% of their 2s. That'll do.
Other great interior defenses from the past decade tell the same story. Whether your model of choice is Michigan State in 2017-18 (which finished the season allowing opponents to shoot just 38.4% on their 2s), Kansas in 2012-13 (39.3%) or Texas in 2014-15 (the KenPom-era record holder at 37.7%), each has shown opponent 2-point percentages that transitioned over the course of the season from the low 30s to the high 30s. True road games against conference opponents will do that.
Yes, yes, Virginia has already played one of those. Duly noted. The point remains: Tony Bennett would happily hitch a ride on this same statistical train, and we'll have to see what the impact is to the team on both sides of the ball now that Braxton Key is out indefinitely with a wrist injury.
In short, the Hoos' current number for interior defense is the essence of unsustainability. Still, barring injury or other such mischiefs, the Virginia D might still be said to be right on track based on recent history.
Being undefeated is highly unsustainable, but 'last undefeated team' correlates well with 'really good'
At this writing, there are still 20 undefeated teams in Division I. Of course, barring a repeat of Indiana going 32-0 in 1975-76, all of these teams are doomed, after a fashion. Short of history being made, none of the teams will stay undefeated.
That said, "doomed" is such a strong term. Better to say that the one team out of these 20 that manages to stay undefeated the longest will have some very encouraging precedents going in its favor.
Since the Hoosiers' perfect season, there have been 46 tournament-eligible teams that stayed undefeated the longest within their respective campaigns. (In three seasons, the last two or three remaining undefeated teams all lost on the same day. In 2015-16, SMU was the last undefeated team, but the Mustangs were ineligible to play in the NCAA tournament.) Of those 46, no fewer than five went on to win the national title: Kentucky in 1978 (started the season 14-0); Duke in 1992 (17-0); Connecticut in 1999 (19-0); Florida in 2006 (17-0); Villanova in 2018 (13-0); and Virginia last season (16-0). That's an 11% chance of winning it all.
More broadly, teams that stay undefeated the longest have an outstanding track record when it comes to making the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. If you're the last team standing with a zero in the loss column, post-1976 history says you have a 70% shot at reaching the Sweet 16. So who needs sustainable? Teams much prefer success.