CHARLESTON, S.C. -- Heat of the moment, closing seconds of a tie game, is no time to think about your tournament résumé. Unless you're the coach of a possible bubble team from a mid-major conference.
"Coming out of the handshake line," Missouri State's Dana Ford said, "and I'm thinking, 'That's a quad one opportunity we just lost. I don't know if we can make that up.'"
The Bears had just dropped a heartbreaker at Xavier on Nov. 15, the game turning on the controversial application of the new anti-flopping rule. Instead of shooting free throws in a one-possession game, the Bears could only watch as the Musketeers walked the floor for a technical foul and went on to win by three.
More than likely, the Bears also watched their already slim NCAA at-large chances disappear.
"That's our reality," said Ford, who in only his second year at Missouri State has been picked to win the MVC. "The big boys don't have to be good all year long. We have to be tournament-good every night."
The Bears were at it again Thursday, hanging with middle-of-the-ACC-pack Miami before falling on Day 1 of the Charleston Classic. It's all the Missouri States of the world can do. Play high majors whenever, wherever they can and hope for that breakthrough victory.
"Losing to Evansville won't hurt [Kentucky]. They have plenty of chances to make up for it," Ford lamented. "We lose to Little Rock in the first game of the season and our at-large [bid] is gone. How is that fair?"
It's not, at least as long as power conference schools dictate both the "if" and the "where" of any major/mid-major matchups. It's simply outside the process to consider the Missouri Valley has produced a pair of Final Four teams since 2013.
"It's the elephant in the room," Ford said. "You can't help but think about it. My school hasn't been to the tournament in 20 years."
Bracket Bits
The ACC -- NC State in particular -- was a bit salty last season when neither the Wolfpack nor Clemson reached the tournament, despite both finishing 9-9 in the conference. Lost was the reality that neither was able to beat any of the league's top teams along the way.
It's possible the ACC is even more top-heavy this season. In whatever order you like, Duke, Louisville, Virginia and North Carolina are top-10 teams. The road to an at-large for ACC bubble types could very well be upsets of the conference elite.
Otherwise the number of ACC bids will go down, not up, in 2020.
Not all great starts are created equal. What happens if so-called "buy" games are subtracted from the following records?
Texas Tech (4-0 in your newspaper) is 0-0. Utah State (5-0) is 0-0. Indiana (5-0) is 0-0. Notre Dame (4-1) is 0-1. Ole Miss (4-0) is 0-0. Virginia Tech (5-0) is 1-0. DePaul (5-0) is 1-0.
In terms of effective record, only Virginia Tech -- a special opening night conference game at Clemson -- and DePaul (at Iowa) have defeated "real teams."
Overachieving: Arizona, Auburn, Texas, Tennessee, Florida State, Washington, Oklahoma, Butler, Penn State, Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Missouri.
Underachieving: Kentucky, Purdue, LSU, Providence, Houston, NC State, Creighton, Notre Dame, Davidson, Iowa, Georgetown.